On February 3, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 6.4669, up 67 basis points from the previous day, according to data from the China foreign exchange trading center. It is worth noting that on January 4, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was 6.5408, while on January 5, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was significantly increased by 648 basis points compared with the previous trading day, breaking the 6.5 level to 6.476. Since then, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar has been maintained between 6.4 and 6.49. According to a reporter from Securities Daily, during the 22 trading days from January 5 to February 3, the lowest point of the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was 6.4883 on January 19, and the highest point was 6.4604 on January 6.
On February 3, as of 17:30, the offshore RMB / US dollar exchange rate was at 6.4646, while the onshore RMB / US dollar exchange rate closed at 6.4587, 10 points higher than the closing price of the previous trading day. As for the recent trend of RMB exchange rate, Wang Youxin, a researcher at the Research Institute of Bank of China, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was strong in 2020, and this year’s rise above 6.5 was more due to the economic recovery at home and abroad, the trend of monetary policy, and the differentiation of return on assets.
However, Wang Youxin also analyzed that after entering 2021, the market situation has changed, the above factors have begun to adjust or face inflection points, the expectation of unilateral appreciation of the RMB exchange rate has weakened, and more two-way fluctuations have emerged. Internally, China’s economy has gradually recovered to its potential growth level. From the external point of view, the US epidemic prevention and control and economic recovery will gradually improve, the market discussion on the normalization of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy will heat up, and the US dollar index will gradually hit the bottom and pick up. Therefore, before and after the Spring Festival, the RMB exchange rate will show more two-way fluctuations, and the short-term action will be insufficient.
From the perspective of the whole year, Guorong Securities Research Report believes that there is still pressure for RMB to appreciate against the US dollar in 2021, but the driving factors behind the pressure are weakening. Therefore, it is judged that RMB will continue to appreciate, but the range will shrink, and there may be shocks in the second half of the year.
“A more resilient and mature foreign exchange market has gradually formed. In the future, the foreign exchange market will further consolidate and present the characteristics of overall balance and two-way fluctuation.” Wang Chunying, deputy director of the State Administration of foreign exchange and spokesman, said at a press conference held by the state information office on January 22 that from the perspective of the international environment, the global economy is expected to recover steadily this year, but there are still many factors of instability and uncertainty. The derivative risks caused by the impact of the epidemic can not be ignored. The turbulence in the international financial market may still exist, which may increase China’s foreign exchange rate Market volatility. In this case, the safe will adhere to the bottom line thinking, strengthen the two-way monitoring and risk assessment of cross-border capital flow and foreign exchange market, improve and perfect the foreign exchange management system and mechanism suitable for the higher level of opening up, and effectively maintain the balance of international payments and the smooth operation of foreign exchange market.