The recent rise in global commodities and the surge in U.S. bond yields, and market concerns about rising inflation have further pushed up interest rates, which in turn led to compression of individual stock valuations and significant market volatility.
Underlying asset changes, the funds that were originally touted as the top, the net value of the fund has seen a sharp retracement, and it is frequently on the hot search. After the Spring Festival this year, the small losses that rushed into the market were huge, and some funds had retraced more than 20% in just a few trading days. Recently, Alipay’s wealth management think tank has issued warnings repeatedly, reminding investors to invest rationally.
Fund companies have prepared for the fall
At the end of last year, although many fund managers suggested that the investment in 2021 may increase, the unilateral rise may not exist. For example, the Hai Fortis Fund stated in the previously released investment strategy for 2021 that the market as a whole can be seen throughout the year and there are structural opportunities, but the overall rate of return is expected to need to be lowered. We are optimistic about pro-cyclical restoration in the short term, and we are optimistic about technology and consumption in the medium and long term.
Yuan Duowu, fund manager of the Strategic Investment Department of Jiutai Fund, believes that the future will be a combination of tight currencies, weaker credit margins, and economic recovery. Although the stock market has been volatile for a period of time since September, the risk has been partially released but it may not be sufficient. The performance of the equity market depends on the strength of the economic recovery, so structural choices become very important. From a structural point of view, value stocks have had negative betas since the beginning of the year, and emerging growth stocks have had positive betas. With the subsequent economic recovery, the macro environment that relied solely on sustained valuation increases may no longer exist, or more towards two main lines. : One is performance driven by economic recovery, and the other is industries with high prosperity and relatively high certainty of performance growth.
But in the face of the red-eye fund “fanners”, as long as they can make money, the risk is not a problem, but soon the holders are “burst hammered”. As the U.S. Treasury yields soared, the adjustment came as scheduled. After the Spring Festival, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell 4%, and the ChiNext Index fell 15%.
The holder suffered a huge loss, and all kinds of jokes walked up, “You copy his bottom, he wants your life”; “I originally wanted to be a friend of wealth, but I slowly discovered that I can only be a friend of time.” I think it’s good to buy the fund. I bought 10,000 and left 8,000, otherwise I would have spent it a long time ago. Although the fund did not make me money, my temper has improved and I will not be happy with things or sad.”
“The temporary redemption is not obvious, but based on past experience, if the decline continues, the redemption is certain. In fact, the company is now also very worried about this happening. After all, when the stocks continued to fall in 2015, the funds with high positions not only adjusted It’s horrible, and also faces the pressure of loss of liquidity, life is very difficult. Now when the morning meeting is opened, there are reminders of the risks, mainly in two aspects, one is to remind the fund manager to grasp the risk of position, and the other is to estimate the investment variety. Value risk. Although some stocks are of good quality, good companies do not mean good stocks. Excessive valuations inevitably mean risks.” A fund manager of a fund company in Shanghai said in an interview with a reporter from 21st Century Business Herald.
Newly established equity shares fell by an average of 3.3%
The reason why the market has such a huge volatility is that the yield of the US 10-year Treasury bond is a globally recognized anchor for the pricing of risky assets. Based on past historical experience, the yield of the US 10-year Treasury bond has reached 1.5%, which is common in an international financial market. At this critical point, the market has already formed a consensus expectation of inflation. Hedge funds have begun to short Treasury bond futures, 10-year Treasury bond yields have soared, and the global asset squeeze bubble has begun to squeeze the bubble. This process will be extremely painful.
Before this, Wang Hongyuan, co-chairman of Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund, once again said: To be alert to the spillover effect of the end of the US stock bull market on Chinese assets, investors must do what they can. Wang Hongyuan believes that the bubble formed by large-scale monetary easing in many economies around the world has gradually ushered in an inflection point. It will be inflation (including inflation in the traditional sense and inflation brought about by rising asset prices) that will pierce this bubble, as well as inflation expectations.
At the same time, as the market adjusts, the newly established funds have undergone significant adjustments. The 211 active partial stock funds established during the year fell by an average of 3.3%. The issuance of new funds has also cooled down significantly. On March 1, a total of 25 new funds opened for subscription, but no explosives appeared. Among them, the largest subscription fund that day did not exceed 3 billion, which formed a huge contrast with the hot scene before.
Alipay financial management think tank believes that short-term market volatility will increase, but it does not need to be overly pessimistic. “On the whole, when the global liquidity margin tightens, investors can appropriately lower their income expectations, allocate fixed income plus products in a balanced way, and do a good job of risk control. At present, under the background of the global economic resonant recovery and the accelerated improvement of corporate profits, investors In the face of market fluctuations, we must calm down and be more rational. In investment, prices will always fluctuate around the value. The decline driven by the panic in the external market will always pass, and the price will eventually return to value.”
CEIBS Fund Manager Zhou Weiwen said that for ordinary investors, buying public funds and holding them for a long time will have a high probability of getting better returns. However, long-term investment is not necessarily as long as possible. When there is a clear bubble, you can consider the staged pockets to be safe. He also pointed out, “The return rate of fund holders in 2021 is not necessarily high. At present, some core tracks in the market are already relatively crowded, and valuations are relatively high. There may be greater volatility in the future. Therefore, investors are still recommended Diversify investment, long-term investment, do not blindly pursue hot funds, you can choose multiple long-term stable performance, long-term holding of products managed by different fund managers; or use fixed investment to buy, small multiple investments, without occupying too much capital Under the circumstances, the impact of volatility can also be reduced.”
E Fund Manager Yang Jiawen said that there are many funds and even “Niuji” in the market. Christians must first take time to do some research on fund managers and the funds that may invest in them, such as fund managers’ investment philosophy, investment style, The product contract, risk level, etc., just like we do a lot of homework before buying a house or car, we must choose the most suitable one according to our investment needs. Don’t follow blindly. Only the fund manager with the most recognized values can be long-term. hold.
Qu Quanru, manager of Lion’s Fund, also suggested that, especially in the face of “Niuji” and “explosive” products, Christians should rationally screen and study whether “Niuji” conforms to their own values. A rational view of the brand effect of hot funds, let hot funds truly return to the market, return to performance, return to investors, scientific investment, value investment, and rational investment.