Since the beginning of the year, all localities have strengthened “policies in accordance with the city.” As of early February, there have been as many as 62 real estate adjustments in various regions in 2021. Analysts predict that in 2021, the adjustments will continue to be precisely “patched”, which will also promote the smooth and healthy operation of the market. Zou Linhua, head of the housing big data project of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences’ Financial Strategy Research Institute, told the China Times reporter that this year’s first-tier cities and strong second-tier cities have entered a difficult see-saw stage of housing price increases and regulation. Mainly, other cities are mainly stable or down.”
Actively “patch” the regulatory policies in many places
Statistics from the Centaline Real Estate Research Center show that in early February, real estate regulation in various regions exceeded 20 times. In January, real estate regulation policies were issued more than 42 times. In 2021, real estate regulation in various regions has accumulatively reached 62 times.
Since the beginning of the year, four first-tier cities have issued property market control policies in turn to close loopholes. Under the main theme of “housing to live without speculation”, at the end of January, Shanghai issued the “Shanghai Ten Articles” to block the loopholes in “fake divorce” housing purchases, proposed new rules for lottery, and included forensic housing purchase restrictions, and strengthened housing from the capital side. Credit management, etc.
On February 8, the Shenzhen Municipal Housing and Construction Bureau issued a document announcing that based on the online price of second-hand housing, referring to the price of surrounding first-hand housing, the reference price of second-hand housing transactions in residential communities in the city will be comprehensively formed, which will be fully covered by the city and regional grid In principle, the residential quarters are used as regional grid units to publish the reference prices of second-hand housing transactions in 3595 residential quarters in the city.
In addition, Guangzhou has strengthened financial supervision. The four major banks have increased their mortgage rates across the board. The mortgage rates for the first and second homes have been raised to 5.2% and 5.4%, respectively; Beijing has conducted intensive interviews with some self-media and strictly investigated operating loan violations. Flow into the property market and so on.
In the same period, new first-tier and second-tier cities have also stepped up their “patching”: On January 27, Hangzhou released a major property market regulation new policy, from housing purchase restrictions, housing sales restrictions, tax adjustments, identification standards for homeless families, and priority purchases of high-level talents. Six aspects including policies have further strengthened regulation. Subsequently, the Hangzhou Municipal Housing Security and Real Estate Administration teamed up with Zhejiang Banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau and other departments to crack down on illegal capital freezing. Due to false or inaccurate information or registration materials, among 9 projects including “Yuchou Mansion”, “Danfeng Four Seasons Courtyard”, “Junpin Mingdi”, and “Zizhangtai Apartment”, 27 households are subject to purchase restrictions and check files The application will no longer be accepted within one year. In addition, Hefei, Lianyungang and other places have also issued documents announcing that it is strictly forbidden to drive up housing prices and encourage higher commission prices.
“Strictly prevent the market from overheating” is considered the purpose of this round of property market regulation. Zhang Bo, Dean of 58 Anju Guest House Industry Research Institute, pointed out to the reporter of China Times that Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have frequently introduced policies in the beginning of 2021, and the signals of “plugging loopholes, controlling finance, and fighting hype” are very obvious.
The reporter noticed that on February 23, the National Bureau of Statistics released the changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in January 2021, showing that in January, the price of newly built commercial housing in 53 of the 70 large and medium cities increased. This is an increase of 11 compared with December last year. In terms of second-hand housing, 49 of the 70 large and medium-sized cities have seen price increases, which is also an increase of 11 compared with December last year.
The sales price of newly-built commercial residential buildings in four first-tier cities rose by 0.6% month-on-month, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose 0.5%, 0.6%, 1.0% and 0.3% respectively. The sales price of second-hand housing rose by 1.3% month-on-month, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose 0.9%, 1.3%, 1.4% and 1.7% respectively. For example, in January this year, new house transactions in Shanghai increased by 17% year-on-year, a 53-month high. The average transaction price of new homes also rose 14.9% from the previous month to 59,700 yuan per square meter.
In the traditional off-season of the property market in February, according to incomplete statistics from the Centaline Property Research Center, after the third day of the first month (February 14), more than 100 second-hand houses were sold in Beijing every day. Compared with the holiday period of previous years, the market was more active. improve.
The effect of regulation and control at the beginning of the year gradually appeared
Although the property market in some cities during the Spring Festival showed a “not low season” compared to the same period in previous years, the industry generally believes that the actual effect of tightening policies in various regions has now been reflected: after the intensive introduction of control policies, the market has a wait-and-see sentiment and market enthusiasm Some fall back.
Take the Shanghai market as an example. During the Spring Festival, the property market in Shanghai fell into a trough: According to data from Shanghai Centaline Real Estate, during the Spring Festival holiday (February 11 to February 17), Shanghai’s newly built commercial residential properties sold 13,000 square meters and 59 There are online signing records for each project, but the number of online signings for most projects does not exceed 5 sets. Crane research data also shows that during the Spring Festival holiday and the week before the Shanghai commercial housing transaction area, compared with the same period in 2020 and 2019, both have a decline of nearly 60%. In terms of supply, since February, apart from the previous three projects of C&D Pushang Bay, Jingwei Academy Sunshine Home and Gemdale Peak Fan, there are no new projects on the market.
Lu Wenxi, chief analyst of Shanghai Centaline Real Estate, explained to the reporter of China Times that apart from the early release of demand due to a wave of market grabbing at the end of January, and the traditional off-season in February, all parties in the market have superimposed the regulatory policies that came out before the holiday. It takes time to digest. Lu Wenxi emphasized that different from the previous control measures, the current control policies are more sophisticated, and each buyer has its own different situations. It takes longer to “check in” and understand the digestion policy: “How to operate the new policy in detail? For example, buyers need to refer to their experience in scoring and participating in lottery.” He also said that based on the current strict control measures, it is difficult for the market to appear irrational in the second half of last year. Of course, the phenomenon of market differentiation will continue.
“The effect of the regulation at the beginning of the year is gradually showing.” Xu Xiaole, chief analyst of the Shell Research Institute, also pointed out to a reporter from the China Times. According to the data of the Shell Research Institute, since February, the second-hand housing market prosperity index of Beijing, Shenzhen and Shanghai has moved at a high level in the first-tier cities. The average price of new listings for second-hand housing in the first-tier and four-cities changed from a rise to a fall. The month-on-month increase in the price of second-hand housing in the four cities all narrowed. Among them, Shenzhen, Beijing and Guangzhou all narrowed to a moderate range of less than 1%.
Zou Linhua has a different view. He pointed out to a reporter from China Times that the current pressure on housing price increases is mainly in first-tier cities and hot second-tier cities, and the number of them is limited. After the policies are introduced in these cities, there needs to be an effect observation period, “not because the regulation has taken effect.”
However, Zou Linhua and other interviewees believe that in 2021, local regulatory policies for chaos in the property market will continue, which will also be conducive to the smooth and healthy operation of the market.
In Xu Xiaole’s view, 2021 will be a year when the long-term real estate regulation and control mechanism will continue to be implemented and deepened. Market changes will be subject to strict supervision and regulation. “It is expected that the annual price increase will be smaller than that in 2020, and the market trend will be more smooth”. Zou Linhua also told a reporter from China Times that this year’s first-tier cities and strong second-tier cities have entered a difficult see-saw stage of housing price increases and regulation.