Tagged: prices

International oil prices hit a new high

In early trading on June 22, the oil sector soared collectively. As of press time, Tongyuan Petroleum rose 15.89%, Hengtai Aipu, China National Offshore Oil Services (02883) and more than 10 stocks rose more than 5%.

International oil prices hit a new high
Among them, China National Petroleum Corporation (00857.HK) surged over 5%, and the intraday peak once again set a new high for this round of rebound, setting a new high in the past 1.5 years.

In the early morning of the 22nd, Beijing time, foreign crude oil futures rose sharply on Monday, and the US WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices both hit their highest closing prices since 2018. The US stock market rose and the dollar fell, boosting the attractiveness of dollar-denominated commodities. The spread of the US oil market in recent months relative to the far-month contract has widened, indicating that market supply is tightening.

Donghai Futures believes that the expectation of a rebound in global demand exceeds the concerns of Iran’s increased supply after the sanctions are lifted, leading to a gradual increase in the recent oil price center of gravity. However, in the medium and long term, the supply side will remain relatively tight, long-term crude oil demand will continue to rise, and medium and long-term oil prices will remain in the upward channel.

CITIC Construction Investment Futures said that crude oil prices are expected to still have upside in the market outlook, and the pressure will gradually increase. The positives include (1) Europe and the United States, with the world’s leading and rapid vaccination progress, the recovery of economic and oil demand supports the market’s optimistic expectations for the prospects of oil demand, and (2) the seasonal characteristics of crude oil destocking during the peak summer driving season in the United States , (3) In the context of the approaching Iranian election, it is increasingly difficult for the United States and Iran to reach an agreement on the Iranian nuclear talks. Delayed supply is expected to be fulfilled. (4) Last week, the speculative net long positions of Brent and WTI increased by 7.3% and 8.8% from the previous month. Three weeks and two weeks increase.

Bank of China Securities believes that it is expected that from the second half of 2021, the prosperity of the petroleum equipment and service industry will rebound significantly. But what is different from the past is that both the petroleum equipment industry and the oilfield technical service industry have undergone tremendous changes in the industry structure. After two crude oil cycles in the past 10 years, China’s petroleum equipment leader Jereh and offshore oil service leader CNOOC Limited Competitiveness continues to increase, and it has a global layout. After crossing the bottom of the cycle, it will usher in new development prospects. It is recommended to pay attention to Jereh and China National Offshore Oil Services.

Cotton futures prices soared by 60%!

As of March 3, 2021, the price of cotton futures is 16,385 yuan per ton. Starting from the low point in the first half of last year, it has risen by about 60% so far.

Cotton futures prices soared by 60%!

What impact will such a huge increase in a short period of time have on the textile industry? Will the prices of cotton products such as socks and towels purchased by consumers be affected by this?

The price of cotton and other raw materials soared

The cost of textile companies has risen by nearly 30%

In a yarn factory in Shaoxing, Zhejiang, the reporter saw tons of lint cotton being dyed in the machine. After dyeing, this batch of cotton will be processed into yarn and sold to downstream fabric garment factories.

Factory director Ji Guomiao told reporters that the biggest problem facing enterprises at present is that the price of raw material cotton has been rising.

Ji Guomiao told reporters that since yarn companies take orders first and then produce, it is difficult to modify the shipping price after the contract is signed, and the continuous increase of raw materials during this period will lead to a substantial increase in costs and reduce the company’s profitability. . In addition, the high yarn prices also make it difficult for downstream fabric factories to accept.

Ji Guomiao, Chairman of Zhejiang Shaoxing Jimalangsi New Material Co., Ltd.: Raw material prices have risen by 20%, and our prices have risen by more than 15%.

As cotton has been rising, yarn prices have also been rising. As of March 3, the main cotton yarn price of ZCE was RMB 24,235 per ton, which is more than 30% higher than the April 2020 low.

The reporter learned that yarn companies have begun to increase their stocks of cotton. However, due to more cotton storage requirements, the company’s inventory increase is limited.

In addition, the price of textile raw materials such as spandex has also risen sharply, which has also led to the further increase in the cost of yarn downstream fabric factories.

Industry insiders told reporters that although the current increase in yarn prices has caused downstream fabric factories and garment factories to have a wait-and-see mood. However, due to the saturation of downstream orders, the price increase of upstream raw materials will eventually be transmitted to the downstream, and the prices of fabrics and clothing will also rise together.

Orders soared

Yarn companies are profitable

What caused the cotton price to rise so much? Will the increase in cotton be caused by the increase in downstream demand?

From the second half of 2020, the price of cotton began to rise rapidly. As far as yarn companies are concerned, although profits have decreased with the rise in cotton prices, the continued increase in orders has made the company’s profitability still good.

The reporter learned that the current production orders of textile companies are generally scheduled to April and May, and a large number of companies use 24-hour operation, and people rest and machines do not rest. Although the profit margin has fallen, the overall profit is still good.

Industry insiders told reporters that the increase in domestic cotton prices is due to the increase in demand. Due to the saturation of orders, domestic textile companies are actively purchasing raw materials. At the end of January, the national textile companies’ inventory of the cotton industry in the library was 930,500 tons, an increase of 126,200 tons from the end of the previous month and an increase of 204,000 tons from the same period last year. On the other hand, the speed of yarn sales is accelerating. As of February 25, the number of days for the inventory of finished yarns of textile enterprises was 10.6 days, a year-on-year decrease of 56.7%.

The price of cotton products such as clothing and towels may rise by 10%

Since the price of raw materials in the cotton textile industry chain has risen so sharply, will the price of cotton products also rise sharply? Will the prices of towels and socks and other textiles that are purchased daily increase significantly?

During the interview, the reporter learned that affected by the epidemic this year, not only orders for yarn and fabrics were transferred from Southeast Asia to China, but even the clothing and cotton products industry also experienced backflow of orders.

In December 2020, China’s textile and apparel exports were US$26.2 billion, an increase of 7.2%, of which textile exports were US$12.29 billion, an increase of 12.7%, and clothing exports were US$13.91 billion, an increase of 2.7%. From January to December 2020, China’s textile and apparel exports totaled US$291.22 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.58%.

However, the reporter learned that compared with the explosive growth of export orders, the current domestic consumer orders have only returned to the level before the epidemic, and the domestic demand for cotton textiles has not seen a significant increase.

Shi Lei, Chairman of Zhejiang Zhuji Jieliya Textile Group: The annual output of towels is about 30,000 tons, and the monthly output is 2,500 tons. The current production is relatively saturated, starting in May 2020, it basically reached the previous year’s production volume. Excluding the rest, the production capacity reached a normal level in January.

The reporter learned that although the price of domestic cotton products will increase with the increase in cost. However, since the raw material cotton to yarn to fabrics and finished products, the proportion of cotton and other raw materials in the cost of each link in the upstream and downstream of the textile industry will decline, so the final price increase will not be as high as the price increase of raw materials. Big.

Shi Lei, Chairman of Zhejiang Zhuji Jieliya Textile Group: The price of raw materials may have risen by 60%, but when it comes to finished towels, the increase is about 10%. An ordinary towel is 100 grams, and the ex-factory price is generally 13 yuan. If it is to increase by 10%, it will be more than 1 yuan.

Industry insiders told reporters that the gross profit margins of domestic apparel companies that do wholesale goods are generally low. Therefore, the price of raw materials rises too quickly in a short period of time, which will increase the price of clothing. The larger impact will be clothing priced at around 80 yuan. At present, the gross profit margin of many brand clothing generally exceeds 50%. Therefore, the price increase of raw materials has little effect on the cost of this type of brand clothing, and the selling price of many brand clothing will not change significantly.

Uniqlo Japan cuts prices across the board

On March 4, the Japanese retail giant Fast Retailing Group announced that its Uniqlo and GU stores in Japan will cut prices by about 9% because “due to the new crown virus pandemic, many customers are experiencing unprecedented difficulties.” In addition, Uniqlo also said that the price tag will display tax-included prices to save customers the trouble of calculation.

Uniqlo Japan cuts prices across the board

Affected by this, Fast Retailing shares fell 6.22% to HK$71.65.

Uniqlo told the Blue Whale Financial reporter that the price adjustment of related brands in Japan this time is in line with the Japanese government’s policies. For markets outside of Japan, there are currently no relevant plans.

According to the 2020 financial report of Uniqlo’s parent company Fast Retailing Group (as of August 2020), data show that the company achieved a net profit of 90.3 billion yen, down 44.4% year-on-year; revenue was 2.01 trillion yen, down 12.3% year-on-year. Although there is no deficit, this is the first full-year decline in Fast Retailing’s performance since 2017.

In this regard, Fast Retailing said that due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the sharp decline in offline sales has become the main reason for the sharp decline in Uniqlo’s performance.

In the first quarter of fiscal year 2021 (September to November 2020), Fast Retailing Group’s total comprehensive income in the first quarter of 2021 fell 0.6% year-on-year to 619.7 billion yen (approximately RMB 36.838 billion), with operating profit year-on-year An increase of 23% to 113 billion yen. (Approximately RMB 7 billion). According to the financial report, the market value of Fast Retailing Group exceeded 10 trillion yen for the first time thanks to the strong performance of products such as home wear and sportswear in countries such as China and Japan.

Last year, Fast Retailing’s overall performance was under greater pressure. However, the first quarter of fiscal 2021 has just improved, and Uniqlo Japan has cut prices across the board, and profits may be further pressured. Will this make Uniqlo in the epidemic worse and reduce profits? The stock price of Fast Retailing plummeted, and the capital market has already voted with its feet.

The property market has been regulated 62 times at the beginning of the year!

Since the beginning of the year, all localities have strengthened “policies in accordance with the city.” As of early February, there have been as many as 62 real estate adjustments in various regions in 2021. Analysts predict that in 2021, the adjustments will continue to be precisely “patched”, which will also promote the smooth and healthy operation of the market. Zou Linhua, head of the housing big data project of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences’ Financial Strategy Research Institute, told the China Times reporter that this year’s first-tier cities and strong second-tier cities have entered a difficult see-saw stage of housing price increases and regulation. Mainly, other cities are mainly stable or down.”

Actively “patch” the regulatory policies in many places

Statistics from the Centaline Real Estate Research Center show that in early February, real estate regulation in various regions exceeded 20 times. In January, real estate regulation policies were issued more than 42 times. In 2021, real estate regulation in various regions has accumulatively reached 62 times.

Since the beginning of the year, four first-tier cities have issued property market control policies in turn to close loopholes. Under the main theme of “housing to live without speculation”, at the end of January, Shanghai issued the “Shanghai Ten Articles” to block the loopholes in “fake divorce” housing purchases, proposed new rules for lottery, and included forensic housing purchase restrictions, and strengthened housing from the capital side. Credit management, etc.

On February 8, the Shenzhen Municipal Housing and Construction Bureau issued a document announcing that based on the online price of second-hand housing, referring to the price of surrounding first-hand housing, the reference price of second-hand housing transactions in residential communities in the city will be comprehensively formed, which will be fully covered by the city and regional grid In principle, the residential quarters are used as regional grid units to publish the reference prices of second-hand housing transactions in 3595 residential quarters in the city.

In addition, Guangzhou has strengthened financial supervision. The four major banks have increased their mortgage rates across the board. The mortgage rates for the first and second homes have been raised to 5.2% and 5.4%, respectively; Beijing has conducted intensive interviews with some self-media and strictly investigated operating loan violations. Flow into the property market and so on.

In the same period, new first-tier and second-tier cities have also stepped up their “patching”: On January 27, Hangzhou released a major property market regulation new policy, from housing purchase restrictions, housing sales restrictions, tax adjustments, identification standards for homeless families, and priority purchases of high-level talents. Six aspects including policies have further strengthened regulation. Subsequently, the Hangzhou Municipal Housing Security and Real Estate Administration teamed up with Zhejiang Banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau and other departments to crack down on illegal capital freezing. Due to false or inaccurate information or registration materials, among 9 projects including “Yuchou Mansion”, “Danfeng Four Seasons Courtyard”, “Junpin Mingdi”, and “Zizhangtai Apartment”, 27 households are subject to purchase restrictions and check files The application will no longer be accepted within one year. In addition, Hefei, Lianyungang and other places have also issued documents announcing that it is strictly forbidden to drive up housing prices and encourage higher commission prices.

“Strictly prevent the market from overheating” is considered the purpose of this round of property market regulation. Zhang Bo, Dean of 58 Anju Guest House Industry Research Institute, pointed out to the reporter of China Times that Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have frequently introduced policies in the beginning of 2021, and the signals of “plugging loopholes, controlling finance, and fighting hype” are very obvious.

The reporter noticed that on February 23, the National Bureau of Statistics released the changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in January 2021, showing that in January, the price of newly built commercial housing in 53 of the 70 large and medium cities increased. This is an increase of 11 compared with December last year. In terms of second-hand housing, 49 of the 70 large and medium-sized cities have seen price increases, which is also an increase of 11 compared with December last year.

The sales price of newly-built commercial residential buildings in four first-tier cities rose by 0.6% month-on-month, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose 0.5%, 0.6%, 1.0% and 0.3% respectively. The sales price of second-hand housing rose by 1.3% month-on-month, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose 0.9%, 1.3%, 1.4% and 1.7% respectively. For example, in January this year, new house transactions in Shanghai increased by 17% year-on-year, a 53-month high. The average transaction price of new homes also rose 14.9% from the previous month to 59,700 yuan per square meter.

In the traditional off-season of the property market in February, according to incomplete statistics from the Centaline Property Research Center, after the third day of the first month (February 14), more than 100 second-hand houses were sold in Beijing every day. Compared with the holiday period of previous years, the market was more active. improve.

The effect of regulation and control at the beginning of the year gradually appeared

Although the property market in some cities during the Spring Festival showed a “not low season” compared to the same period in previous years, the industry generally believes that the actual effect of tightening policies in various regions has now been reflected: after the intensive introduction of control policies, the market has a wait-and-see sentiment and market enthusiasm Some fall back.

Take the Shanghai market as an example. During the Spring Festival, the property market in Shanghai fell into a trough: According to data from Shanghai Centaline Real Estate, during the Spring Festival holiday (February 11 to February 17), Shanghai’s newly built commercial residential properties sold 13,000 square meters and 59 There are online signing records for each project, but the number of online signings for most projects does not exceed 5 sets. Crane research data also shows that during the Spring Festival holiday and the week before the Shanghai commercial housing transaction area, compared with the same period in 2020 and 2019, both have a decline of nearly 60%. In terms of supply, since February, apart from the previous three projects of C&D Pushang Bay, Jingwei Academy Sunshine Home and Gemdale Peak Fan, there are no new projects on the market.

Lu Wenxi, chief analyst of Shanghai Centaline Real Estate, explained to the reporter of China Times that apart from the early release of demand due to a wave of market grabbing at the end of January, and the traditional off-season in February, all parties in the market have superimposed the regulatory policies that came out before the holiday. It takes time to digest. Lu Wenxi emphasized that different from the previous control measures, the current control policies are more sophisticated, and each buyer has its own different situations. It takes longer to “check in” and understand the digestion policy: “How to operate the new policy in detail? For example, buyers need to refer to their experience in scoring and participating in lottery.” He also said that based on the current strict control measures, it is difficult for the market to appear irrational in the second half of last year. Of course, the phenomenon of market differentiation will continue.

“The effect of the regulation at the beginning of the year is gradually showing.” Xu Xiaole, chief analyst of the Shell Research Institute, also pointed out to a reporter from the China Times. According to the data of the Shell Research Institute, since February, the second-hand housing market prosperity index of Beijing, Shenzhen and Shanghai has moved at a high level in the first-tier cities. The average price of new listings for second-hand housing in the first-tier and four-cities changed from a rise to a fall. The month-on-month increase in the price of second-hand housing in the four cities all narrowed. Among them, Shenzhen, Beijing and Guangzhou all narrowed to a moderate range of less than 1%.

Zou Linhua has a different view. He pointed out to a reporter from China Times that the current pressure on housing price increases is mainly in first-tier cities and hot second-tier cities, and the number of them is limited. After the policies are introduced in these cities, there needs to be an effect observation period, “not because the regulation has taken effect.”

However, Zou Linhua and other interviewees believe that in 2021, local regulatory policies for chaos in the property market will continue, which will also be conducive to the smooth and healthy operation of the market.

In Xu Xiaole’s view, 2021 will be a year when the long-term real estate regulation and control mechanism will continue to be implemented and deepened. Market changes will be subject to strict supervision and regulation. “It is expected that the annual price increase will be smaller than that in 2020, and the market trend will be more smooth”. Zou Linhua also told a reporter from China Times that this year’s first-tier cities and strong second-tier cities have entered a difficult see-saw stage of housing price increases and regulation.