A new set of housing explosion to earn 5 million, Shenzhen property market looted!
Recently, the speculation of new houses in Shenzhen has caused a huge controversy in China
Housing speculation is not necessary to curb speculation!
Zhou Xiaochuan, President of the China Finance Association and former central bank governor, published a heavy article before the official media said, “alluding to” house price control.
On November 27, Zhou Xiaochuan, former governor of the people’s Bank of China, said in the third issue of the central bank’s research on the concept and measurement of expanding inflation:
In the past, inflation did not seem to be an ideal measure. The current measurement obviously has the problem of neglecting the price of investment goods and assets.
It is no longer possible to take asset prices into account without considering inflation, but how to include them still needs to be studied.
Which asset prices should be included in inflation and included in CPI?
House prices bear the brunt first!
In “expanding the concept and measurement of inflation”, Mr. Zhou Xiaochuan wrote:
For housing, in the past, the concept was that house purchase was regarded as investment, and price changes were not included in CPI; later, renting houses could be included, but the weight in the basket was relatively small; later, people advocated that self housing should be measured by analogy with rent, but the weight of housing was still relatively small.
The scarcity and high prices of urban land make it impossible to ignore or underestimate the housing factor in the measurement of inflation.
As we all know, one of the main KPI of the central bank’s monetary policy is to control inflation, which varies from country to country. In developed countries such as the United States, 2% is the standard, while for China, 3% is the anchor value.
In other words, CPI can be regarded as the biggest CPI in the basket.
Since August 2020, due to the high base of last year and the continuous decline of pork prices, CPI has fallen month by month, returning to the “1 era” in September and even returning to the “0 era” in October.
Is this inflation feeling right?
Holding on to my chubby self, I found that I still didn’t feel right.
It is true that some pork freedom has been achieved recently, but the price of housing is still unattainable and suffocating.
What is the original intention of inflation CPI?
Remember correctly, should be to reflect people’s cost of life, reflect people’s quality of life, condense people’s quality of life.
If house price is better than pig price to reflect people’s quality of life and people’s good demand for quality life, CPI should really spit out the old and accept the new, and update the old and the new.
Friedman of the monetarist school said that inflation is a kind of monetary phenomenon. From the perspective of M2 and other monetary indicators, the monetary phenomenon is more compatible with house prices.
According to the statistics of securities companies, after excluding m2-gdp, the “surplus money growth” is very consistent with the growth of house prices.
The rise of house price is about one year slower than that of currency
The money came down, and finally came to the house price
In 2020, under the epidemic situation, from the perspective of “large consumption”, the situation of real estate consumption is still better than that of general consumer goods.
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in the first 10 months of 2020, the total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 31190.1 billion yuan, down 5.9% year on year.
What about real estate consumption?
According to the National Bureau of statistics, the growth rate of sales of commercial housing nationwide was 5.8%, which was higher than the retail sales of social consumer goods.
What’s more interesting is that among the consumption related to real estate, the negative growth rate of furniture is – 8.7%, and that of building decoration is – 6.2%. This shows that many people simply buy houses instead of living in them.