The rumors are terrible!
Taking the meaning out of context will make people believe it is true, and the generalization will make people reverse black and white.
In the Chinese public opinion in 2020, one of the most rumored and most violent incidents is the large-scale withdrawal of Japanese capital from China. From the beginning of the year to the end of the year, there will be troubles every three to five. Those who know the business are not surprised, but the people who are unknown, the rumors are spread, and they may really believe it!
Recently, news of more than 1,700 Japanese companies withdrawing from China has once again spread like wildfire. Many people have heard, oh, 1,700? Such a detailed number, with nose and eyes, must be true.
Export-oriented China has always been sensitive to foreign investment, while Japan is undoubtedly more sensitive to Chinese people due to historical reasons.
The incident was sensitive. On December 10, the Ministry of Commerce specifically refuted the rumors about the withdrawal of Japanese capital:
The so-called “a large number of Japanese companies withdraw from China” is simply untenable. Judging from the Japan External Trade Organization’s survey report on Japanese companies in China, from 2015 to 2019, the proportion of Japanese companies expanding, maintaining, and reducing their business in China remained basically stable, of which the proportion of companies planning to reduce their business in China was relatively small .
Looking at the answer from the Ministry of Commerce, I was very entangled in my heart. It can be seen that the Ministry of Commerce can only stop at the end of the day due to the limited conditions.
Being independent, objective, and daring to speak out is the consistent style of Ye Tan Finance. We searched around and found that there are very few voices in the market, specifically for the special group of Japanese capital.
Today, let’s eat a crab first, and let everyone see what the Japanese capital is like in China!
Japanese capital has started! Really surprised!
In October 2018, before the former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe came to China for the last time, NHK published an article titled “Japan Ends its Aid to China This Year, and “Equal” Development in the Future”.
End of aid to China? That’s right.
After Japan and China signed the “Treaty of Peace and Friendship” in 1978, Japan began “aid” to China for nearly 40 years since 1979.
According to statistics, as of 2018, Japan has provided a total of 3.65 trillion yen, which is approximately 231.4 billion yuan at the current exchange rate.
Most of these assistance are paid assistance, that is, assistance that lends money to interest.
According to the statistics of Japanese media, the trend of changes in Japan’s aid amount over the past 40 years is as follows:
In the above curve of approximately normal distribution, backward from the results, the real downward turning point appeared in 2008.
That year, as everyone knows, China hosted the huge Beijing Olympics, perhaps because it realized that China was capable of hosting the Olympics, and Japan ended the paid aid this year—the main body of Japanese aid.
2010 was another very special year. In that year, China’s GDP surpassed Japan and became the second in the world.
In the aid map given by the Japanese media, it is easy to find that in 2010, the end mode of the decline in Japanese aid was opened, and the decline in aid is getting faster and faster.
In the statistical caliber of China’s direct investment, Japan’s aid is not counted. This cannot be verified for the time being. However, compared with the situation of Japanese investment, the trends of Japanese investment and Japanese aid are almost the same. This may mean that aid is counted in actual statistics. In the investment.
In 2018, the China Economic and Trade Guide, headed by the National Development and Reform Commission, published an article called: Review and Prospect of Japanese Investment in China.
There is such a statement:
In 2012, Japan’s investment in China reached a peak of 7.39 billion U.S. dollars. Since then, it has fallen continuously, reaching only 3.11 billion U.S. dollars in 2016.
The purpose of this article is mainly to deal with the so-called “Japanese escape theory” at the time.
You know, from the peak of 7.39 billion U.S. dollars to 3.11 billion U.S. dollars, investment is cut in half, which makes the whole China very worried.
After 2018, the voice of fear that Japanese investment will run away has actually been there.
But the reality is that since the cessation of aid payments, Japanese investment has bottomed out and rebounded continuously.
According to statistics from the Bank of Japan and CEIC, Japanese investment in China began to pick up in 2017, with double-digit growth in 2018 and a further increase in 2019.