Tagged: investment

South Korea’s export investment recovery

South Korea’s Ministry of planning and Finance released its green book on recent economic trends on Friday saying that South Korea’s export and investment have recovered in the near future, employment population has declined by a narrow margin, affected by the epidemic, and domestic demand has continued to decline.

 

The South Korean Government referred to real economic uncertainty for eight months from July to February, but there was no wording in the green paper. The Ministry of Finance said at a press conference that the recovery momentum of the real economy has continued under the impetus of export and investment recovery in the near future, domestic demand has declined from February, and the real economic indicators are unlikely to continue to deteriorate in the short term.

 

The domestic card reading volume in February increased by 8.6% year-on-year, and the negative value was positive in 3 months. Department store sales increased 39.5 percent, the biggest increase since 2005. The sales of discount stores increased by 24.2%, the largest increase since february2015. Catering, accommodation, arts and art leisure and sports industries still maintain a double-digit decline, and there are still deviations in various fields of domestic demand.

 

In addition, the network sales increased by 9.5%, a decrease from 18.1% in January; domestic sales of passenger vehicles in South Korea increased by 28.4%, which remained increasing after January; the consumer confidence index (CSI) was 97.4, higher than 95.4 in January; Chinese tourists visited South Korea decreased 89.4% on month basis; in February, employment population decreased by 473000 people year on year, falling for 12 consecutive months since February; exports increased by 9.5% year-on-year in February, with daily average daily average of 12 months The export volume was US $2.3 billion, an increase of 26.4 per cent year on year.

Can the house price hold up?

    Looking back on 2020, I have a lot of emotion. The trend of the property market this year was also mixed, but fortunately, it finally achieved a “V”-shaped upward trend, and this upward trend continued to rise within the first two months of 2021 In the past month, the property market in hot first-tier and second-tier cities has been extremely hot: soaring house prices, fierce competition, crowded sales offices… Compared with the still cold weather, the spring of the property market has already Arrive early Under this turbulent and fiery background, whether it is an important city as a weather vane in the property market, or its own economic volume in the first-tier cities, Shanghai is destined to become a national focus and focus of discussion.

1. Excellent, Shanghai ahead

From the turbulent Shanghai beach in the last century to Lujiazui, which links world finance, Shanghai has always occupied a pivotal position  According to the recently announced 2020 GDP city rankings, there are 23 cities above the scale of trillion yuanShanghai tops the list with a total GDP of nearly 3.9 trillion yuan , achieving a positive growth of 1.7%. GDP scale and growth rate both lead the capital Beijing! It has become the only megacity with positive growth among the six major economic cities in the world. It is enough to see the strength as an international metropolis, the world’s largest aviation hub, and the world’s largest foreign trade city.

In addition to a strong economy, Shanghai’s population size is also not to be underestimated. As the city with the largest economic aggregate in my country, Shanghai is the city with the largest permanent population and urban population in my country. On March 10, 2020, the Shanghai Municipal Bureau of Statistics released the “Shanghai National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin in 2019”. As of the end of 2019, the city’s permanent population was 24,281,400, of which the registered population was 14.504,300 and the migrant population was 9,77,100. .

The picture comes from the Internet

At the same time, a large number of people still enter Shanghai every year. In 2020, the people of Shanghai port net inflow of 9.5884 million, ranking first in the country. According to the “China City Talent Attractiveness Ranking” report jointly launched by Zhaopin Recruitment and Evergrande Research Institute in April 2020, Shanghai, which has a large economy and stable growth, has risen from second place to the No. 1 talent attraction index is 2017. One also maintained the first position for the next three years Spark Global Limited.

The strong attractiveness of talents is not only due to the support of economic scale, but also the relatively easy pressure to survive. Compared with Beijing of the same status, Shanghai does not have the three-hour commute and the exhaustion of inter-provincial work, and some are the chicness that can leave at any time and the average income of the country According to data on the per capita disposable income of residents in 31 provinces released by the National Bureau of Statistics in 2020, Shanghai, Beijing, and Zhejiang are among the top three and Shanghai ranks first with a per capita disposable income of 72,232 yuan and is the only one in the country that exceeds 70,000 yuan. Mark the area.

I bought a house overseas: 160,000 can’t can’t afford Hermes

Recently, some media reported that Wu Xiubo, who bought a luxury house in the United States for US$5.5 million in 2015, sold it at the end of 2020 at a price of US$4.7 million, far lower than the starting price.

A few years ago, buying houses overseas became investment targets for many Chinese tyrants and Chinese aunts. They not only focused on Japan, South Korea and Southeast Asia, which are adjacent to China, but also radiated across the ocean to Europe, America, and Oceania.

In this tide of overseas house purchases, many people even handed over millions or tens of millions of assets overseas without even going to see the houses in person, expecting the appreciation of wealth, but the outcome was quite different.

“Experience” will launch a series of overseas real estate planning. This issue focuses on four Chinese and Chinese who are buying houses overseas: some people bought a serviced apartment in Phuket, Thailand, but more than three years have passed and the house has not been officially delivered; some people are in New Zealand I bought a single-family villa and its value increased by hundreds of thousands of New Zealand dollars. However, due to various New Zealand policies regarding the renovation of the house, the rent could not support the monthly mortgage. Someone also spent 160,000 to become a landlord in Japan, which was deeply moved. “This little money may not be enough to buy Hermes in China”…The following is their story:

Orator: Ms. L

House Purchase File: Purchased a house in Phuket, Thailand in 2017, but the house has not yet been delivered

I haven’t handed over the house for three years.

I bought a house in Phuket, Thailand in March 2017. It was a hotel-style apartment with a total price of 195,000 US dollars, but I only paid a down payment and an agency fee, which was about 300,000 yuan.

At that time, I had a friend who worked as an overseas real estate agency. She was a very senior practitioner in this industry. The first thing she recommended to me was this hotel-style apartment in Phuket, Thailand. The developer is a British person who has registered a real estate development company in Thailand and obtained a real estate development permit.

My motivation for buying a house in Thailand is to configure it as a long-term financial product with an exit mechanism. At that time, I felt that this project was more in line with the direction of major asset allocation. The main reasons are as follows:Spark Global Limited

First, I am optimistic about the long-term fundamentals of international island tourism;

Second, the location and room type of this house, as well as the supporting mortgage and custody services, are more comprehensive. As the owner, it is easy to worry about and the investment income calculation is ideal.

Third, price. The same price may not have such good conditions in domestic first-tier cities;

Fourth, my intermediary friend said that among the clients who subscribed together, there are lawyers and high-income groups in other industries, which makes me feel very practical.

I have done homework for more than a year in advance and have seen Japanese houses on the spot. Although buying a house in Tokyo sounds relatively tall, the procedures for buying a house in Japan, as well as the subsequent maintenance and repair costs (if it is a second-hand house) Very troublesome, the legal responsibilities and obligations involved in the custody level are more complicated, and the housing price and location are not obvious compared with Beijing Zhongguancun.

In contrast, Thailand’s serviced apartments have low thresholds for subscription, and there are people hosting them. Those who rent to Phuket for tourism can get a share of the rent. In addition, this British real estate developer has done some successful cases, and the return on investment is quite impressive.

Who will advance to the GDP Trillion Club?

China-Singapore Jingwei Client, January 15th (Wang Yongle) With the successive holding of the two local meetings in 2021, the economic “transcripts” of 2020 have been unveiled in many places. However, the economic aggregates of some cities are “half-hidden”. Which cities will be promoted to the “GDP Trillion Club” remains to be determined. However, at least four cities including Quanzhou, Nantong, Fuzhou and Xi’an have confirmed that they are expected to exceed one trillion for the first time.

17 cities have a GDP exceeding one trillion

The “GDP trillion club” refers to cities with annual gross regional product (GDP) reaching or exceeding 1 trillion yuan. As of the end of 2019, 17 cities including Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou have been shortlisted, and the number of reserve cities for the “Tillion GDP Club” has reached 7.

Specifically, the total GDP of Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou exceeded one trillion in 2006, 2008, and 2010, respectively; in 2011, the total GDP of Shenzhen, Chongqing, Tianjin, and Suzhou reached one trillion; in 2014, Chengdu The total GDP of Wuhan exceeded one trillion; in 2015, the total GDP of Hangzhou exceeded one trillion; in 2016, the total GDP of Nanjing and Qingdao exceeded one trillion; in 2017, the total GDP of Wuxi and Changsha exceeded one trillion; in 2018, The GDP of Ningbo and Zhengzhou exceeded one trillion yuan for the first time; in 2019, the total GDP of Foshan exceeded one trillion yuan.

In addition, according to the data of 2019, there are 7 cities in the 900 billion yuan echelon, just a step away from the “trillion GDP club” and become a quasi trillion-level city. They are Quanzhou (994.66 billion yuan), Dongguan (948.25 billion yuan), Jinan (944.30 billion yuan), Hefei (940.90 billion yuan), Fuzhou (939.2 billion yuan), Nantong (938.34 billion yuan), Xi’an (932.10 billion yuan) .

Who is the next city?

Spark Global Limited

The above seven quasi-trillion cities are expected to launch a sprint to GDP trillion cities in 2020. Who will be promoted?

Quanzhou

Among the 7 cities mentioned above, Quanzhou ranked first in GDP in 2019, which is less than 6 billion yuan from 1 trillion yuan.

Data show that Quanzhou’s GDP from 2016 to 2019 was 692.88 billion yuan, 794.002 billion yuan, 901.924 billion yuan and 994.666 billion yuan.

According to the “Proposal of the CPC Quanzhou Municipal Committee on Formulating the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan for Quanzhou’s National Economic and Social Development and the Long-Term Goals for 2035”, during the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” period, Quanzhou’s regional GDP continuously exceeded 4 The 100 billion mark is expected to exceed one trillion yuan, and the per capita GDP will exceed 110,000 yuan.

Nantong

Among the 7 cities mentioned above, Nantong ranked sixth in GDP in 2019, a difference of about 60 billion yuan from 1 trillion yuan. Ranked second in the first three quarters of 2020.

Statistics show that Nantong’s GDP from 2016 to 2019 was 715.17 billion yuan, 803.41 billion yuan, 875.32 billion yuan and 938.34 billion yuan.

According to the “Proposals of the CPC Nantong Municipal Committee on Formulating the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan for the National Economic and Social Development of Nantong City and 2035”, during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the regional GDP of Nantong City will exceed three hundred billion yuan. The stage is expected to exceed one trillion yuan in 2020.

Deputy Governor of the Central Bank: Ant Group has established a rectification working

The State Council Information Office is scheduled to hold a press conference at 3 pm on January 15, 2021 (Friday). Chen Yulu, vice governor of the People’s Bank of China, introduced the financial statistics for 2020 and answered questions from reporters. The following is the press conference Key points:

Ant Group has established a rectification work group and is working hard to formulate a rectification timetable

Chen Yulu, deputy governor of the central bank, said that under the guidance of the financial management department, Ant Group has established a rectification work group and is stepping up to formulate a rectification timetable, while maintaining business continuity and normal business operations to ensure the quality of financial services to the public. The financial management department is also maintaining close supervisory communication with Ant Group, and relevant work progress will be released in time.

Chen Yulu: flexibly grasp the intensity, rhythm and focus of monetary policy

Chen Yulu stated that a prudent monetary policy in 2021 will be more reasonable, moderate, flexible and precise. The central bank will adhere to the principle of stability, not make a sharp turn, flexibly grasp the strength, rhythm and focus of monetary policy, and support sustained economic recovery and high quality with moderate monetary growth. development of.

The growth rate of real estate loans last year was lower than the growth rate of various loans for the first time in 8 years

Zou Lan, Director of the Financial Market Department of the Central Bank, said that in recent years, the central bank has adhered to the positioning of housing and non-speculation, focusing on the following tasks: First, strengthen the financial control of real estate, and lead various departments to strengthen monitoring of the inflow of various funds into real estate. The loan growth rate was lower than that of various loans for the first time in 8 years. The second is to implement a prudential management system for real estate finance, and form capital monitoring and management rules for key real estate enterprises. The third is to improve the housing leasing financial policy, and public opinions on relevant policies will be solicited in the near future.

Chen Yulu: my country’s price level is likely to maintain a moderate increase in 2021

Chen Yulu said that it is expected that this year’s CPI will continue to rise sharply. The central bank is also paying attention to changes in core CPI. At present, the growth rate of residents’ income is still recovering, with repeated epidemics in some areas, service consumption is still restricted, and the core CPI is still at a low level. As the domestic economy recovers steadily, the core CPI is expected to continue to rise in the future. In general, my country’s price level is likely to maintain a moderate increase in 2021. Affected by last year’s base, the year-on-year increase may appear to rise first and then stabilize.

Central Bank Sun Guofeng: The RMB exchange rate will rise and fall, and two-way floating will become the norm

Sun Guofeng, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the Central Bank, said that the future trend of the RMB exchange rate depends on the economic situation and international market factors. In general, the RMB exchange rate will rise and fall, and two-way floating will become the norm. It will neither continue to appreciate nor continue Devaluation.

2020 P2P platform has all been cleared Spark Global Limited In 2020, all P2P platforms have been cleared, and various high-risk financial institutions have been dealt with in an orderly manner.

Properly implement the real estate financial prudential management system and increase financial support for the development of the housing rental market

Zou Lan, Director of the Financial Markets Department of the People’s Bank of China, said that the People’s Bank of China will conscientiously implement the deployment of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the Central Economic Work Conference. Continuity, consistency, and stability of financial policies, steadily implement the real estate financial prudential management system, increase financial support for the development of the housing leasing market, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.

Keeping M2 and social finance basically matched with nominal economic growth does not mean that they are completely equal

The Japanese are going to run? ! China’s answer is shocking!

The rumors are terrible!

Taking the meaning out of context will make people believe it is true, and the generalization will make people reverse black and white.

In the Chinese public opinion in 2020, one of the most rumored and most violent incidents is the large-scale withdrawal of Japanese capital from China. From the beginning of the year to the end of the year, there will be troubles every three to five. Those who know the business are not surprised, but the people who are unknown, the rumors are spread, and they may really believe it!

Recently, news of more than 1,700 Japanese companies withdrawing from China has once again spread like wildfire. Many people have heard, oh, 1,700? Such a detailed number, with nose and eyes, must be true.

Export-oriented China has always been sensitive to foreign investment, while Japan is undoubtedly more sensitive to Chinese people due to historical reasons.

The incident was sensitive. On December 10, the Ministry of Commerce specifically refuted the rumors about the withdrawal of Japanese capital:

The so-called “a large number of Japanese companies withdraw from China” is simply untenable. Judging from the Japan External Trade Organization’s survey report on Japanese companies in China, from 2015 to 2019, the proportion of Japanese companies expanding, maintaining, and reducing their business in China remained basically stable, of which the proportion of companies planning to reduce their business in China was relatively small .

Looking at the answer from the Ministry of Commerce, I was very entangled in my heart. It can be seen that the Ministry of Commerce can only stop at the end of the day due to the limited conditions.

Being independent, objective, and daring to speak out is the consistent style of Ye Tan Finance. We searched around and found that there are very few voices in the market, specifically for the special group of Japanese capital.

Today, let’s eat a crab first, and let everyone see what the Japanese capital is like in China!

Japanese capital has started! Really surprised!

In October 2018, before the former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe came to China for the last time, NHK published an article titled “Japan Ends its Aid to China This Year, and “Equal” Development in the Future”.

End of aid to China? That’s right.

After Japan and China signed the “Treaty of Peace and Friendship” in 1978, Japan began “aid” to China for nearly 40 years since 1979.

According to statistics, as of 2018, Japan has provided a total of 3.65 trillion yen, which is approximately 231.4 billion yuan at the current exchange rate.

Most of these assistance are paid assistance, that is, assistance that lends money to interest.

According to the statistics of Japanese media, the trend of changes in Japan’s aid amount over the past 40 years is as follows:

illustration

In the above curve of approximately normal distribution, backward from the results, the real downward turning point appeared in 2008.

That year, as everyone knows, China hosted the huge Beijing Olympics, perhaps because it realized that China was capable of hosting the Olympics, and Japan ended the paid aid this year—the main body of Japanese aid.

2010 was another very special year. In that year, China’s GDP surpassed Japan and became the second in the world.

In the aid map given by the Japanese media, it is easy to find that in 2010, the end mode of the decline in Japanese aid was opened, and the decline in aid is getting faster and faster.

In the statistical caliber of China’s direct investment, Japan’s aid is not counted. This cannot be verified for the time being. However, compared with the situation of Japanese investment, the trends of Japanese investment and Japanese aid are almost the same. This may mean that aid is counted in actual statistics. In the investment.

In 2018, the China Economic and Trade Guide, headed by the National Development and Reform Commission, published an article called: Review and Prospect of Japanese Investment in China.

There is such a statement:

In 2012, Japan’s investment in China reached a peak of 7.39 billion U.S. dollars. Since then, it has fallen continuously, reaching only 3.11 billion U.S. dollars in 2016.

The purpose of this article is mainly to deal with the so-called “Japanese escape theory” at the time.

You know, from the peak of 7.39 billion U.S. dollars to 3.11 billion U.S. dollars, investment is cut in half, which makes the whole China very worried.

After 2018, the voice of fear that Japanese investment will run away has actually been there.

But the reality is that since the cessation of aid payments, Japanese investment has bottomed out and rebounded continuously.

According to statistics from the Bank of Japan and CEIC, Japanese investment in China began to pick up in 2017, with double-digit growth in 2018 and a further increase in 2019.

 

 

In 2020, 20,000 jokes earning 1 billion yuan, are you smiling?

2020 is coming to an end. Has the small goal of making money set at the beginning of the year been achieved?

No!

Come take a look at this series of Sao operations, how to easily achieve the small goal of 1 billion with 20,000.

In January, full warehouse molding technology rose 220%, from 20,000 to 64,000

In February, Dawn shares in full warehouse rose 200%, from 64,000 to 192,000

In March, the full position of Zhongdian shares rose by 177%, from 192,000 to 510,000

Full warehouse in Huashengchang in April, rose 118%, 510,000 became 1.07 million

In May, the shares of Shengguang in full warehouse rose 90% to 1.07 million into 2.03 million

In June, full warehouse Caesars culture rose 167%, 2.03 million became 5.27 million

In July, Mancang Haiqi Group rose 250%, 5.27 million became 18.44 million

August Mancang Tianshan Biological, up 200%, 18.44 million became 55.32 million

In September, full warehouse Xinyu Guoke, up 200%, 55.32 million changed to 160 million

In October, the full warehouse of Zhongneng Electric rose 200%, from 160 million to 480 million

In November, a full warehouse of well-off shares rose 120%, 480 million became 1 billion

What are you doing in December? Don’t know, because it’s not over yet

This is a ridiculous piece, basically impossible to achieve.

why?

Because this does not comply with the first law of the stock market: no one can predict the stock market.

illustration

The investment logic behind the funny jokes

These listed companies basically don’t need to look at them, they are some “demon stocks”. For example, the company Tianshan has already been investigated by the Securities Regulatory Commission due to abnormal transactions.

Some people will say that jokes are jokes, and there is no investment logic at all.

What we have to mention here is: the eighth wonder in the world-compound interest.

For example, at the beginning, we had a principal of 100,000 yuan, and we made 20% in the first year; the principal in the second year became 120,000 yuan, and in the second year we made 20%; the principal in the third year changed It became 144,000 yuan…

Compound interest should be a concept that investors need to understand deeply before investing.

When we make investments, we are not afraid of slowness or loss, because once there is a huge loss, it will be much harder to re-accumulate profits.

For example, if you lose 50%, you need to make a profit of 100% in order to recover your costs. Is that difficult?

Let’s take a look at Buffett. The annualized rate of return of managed funds for so many years is only around 20%.

In my country, private equity fund companies that can achieve an annualized return rate of more than 15% for 10 consecutive years are basically rare, and no more than 10 at most.

Finally, investors also need to understand that the power of compound interest depends on time and needs to be precipitated.

A little bit of hard work every day, a little bit of growth every day, and initial results can be seen in three years, and a “miracle” will most likely occur in ten years.

Some investment psychology cannot have

Just like some listed companies mentioned in the previous paragraph, we are standing in the present and talking about the past, and we are naturally clear about its trend.

But investors must always stand in the present to see the future in order to obtain better returns. After all, investment is about the future of the company, not the past.

In addition to the psychological misunderstanding of “after-attack” investment, there are:

1. What is not available is the best

At first glance, it looks very similar to the love of an obsessive man and a girl. Some people can’t love it, and some people don’t love it.

Just like many investors are not pleasing to the eyes of their own stocks as long as they fall short-term, how they look at stocks that are rising in the hands of others.

Turning around, I went to buy someone else’s ticket, and later found out that the ticket I originally held had risen better.

2. Cannot bear the loss

The psychological pain caused by a loss of 10,000 yuan is twice the joy of a profit of 10,000 yuan.

Once you have this kind of psychology, you will start to hate losses. After choosing to cut the meat (also called stop loss), it will be a lot easier.

No one knows that the one who should lose is still the loss, but he “selectively forget”.

Did not consider whether the company’s fundamentals have changed at all? I don’t know if this wave of correction is a normal response to price fluctuations around value.

3. Your own “child” can’t be said by others

The “children” here refer to the votes they hold. They cannot tolerate others to say that the company is not good, and investors can often see each other in the stock bar.

If things go on like this, these people will selectively ignore the bad and negative aspects of the company, and they will also affect their investment judgments.

In fact, every company has its pros and cons, and its stock price will not plummet because others point out its problems.

There is also news shock and herd effect: if there is good news, everyone will buy together, and if there is bad news, everyone will compete and cut meat together.

There are also investors asking how and how to operate certain stocks on various platforms

If you can ask this kind of question, it means that you basically don’t know what the company behind the ticket you buy does?

This is also not to blame for investors, it is not easy to find a good company, and it is even harder to find a good price.

After all, to thoroughly research a company not only requires a professional background, but also takes a lot of time; and waiting for the stock price of a good company to fall to a “reasonable” level requires a long wait.

Curb hidden debt growth

The aforementioned 26 trillion yuan of local government debts are explicit debts. Experts generally believe that the current risks of this explicit debt are safe and controllable. However, because some local governments violated laws and regulations to raise debts in the past few years, the hidden debts of local governments have grown rapidly and on a large scale. The hidden debt risks have attracted much attention.

Former Deputy Minister of Finance Zhang Hongli said at the recent seminar on the sustainable development of government debt under the new pattern that the scale of local implicit debt is large, lacks transparency, and it is more difficult and costly to prevent and resolve. Due to statistical caliber and other factors, the various parties’ estimates of the implicit debt of local governments are quite different. According to IMF (International Monetary Fund) calculations, at the end of 2018, the scale of hidden debts of local governments in my country reached 30.9 trillion.

This risk has long attracted high-level attention. Prior to this, the relevant departments have investigated and rectified the scale of hidden debt. In 2018, the central government issued a document to prevent and resolve the hidden debt risk of local governments. Various localities have successively introduced plans to resolve existing hidden debts in 5 to 10 years.

In the above article, Liu Kun devoted a paragraph to the prevention and resolution of hidden debt risks of local governments during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period.

He said that perfecting the normalized monitoring mechanism will never allow new projects or pave the way through new hidden debts. Strengthen the supervision of state-owned enterprises and institutions, improve the funding mechanism of local governments and their departments to enterprises and institutions in accordance with the law, and strictly prohibit local governments from increasing hidden debts in the form of corporate bonds. Developmental and policy-oriented financial institutions must operate prudently and compliantly, comprehensively consider project cash flow, collateral and other prudential credit granting, and strictly prohibit illegally providing financing to local governments or cooperating with local governments to raise debts in disguise. Clean up and standardize local financing platform companies and divest their government financing functions.

Qiao Baoyun said that the Minister of Finance talked about hidden debt risk prevention at a large length, indicating that the central government will make great efforts to solve this problem in the future. Moreover, the focus of future work is still to give priority to curbing the growth of hidden debts. In addition to the local governments and financing platforms that focus on supervising the demand side of illegal debt, it also emphasizes the key supervision of illegal debt financing providers, which includes development and policy. Financial institutions.

Mao Jie believes that to curb the formation of hidden debts from illegal borrowing by local governments, in addition to strengthening the supervision of state-owned enterprises, public institutions, local government financing platforms, developmental financial institutions, and other financial institutions, it is also necessary to promote the transformation of local government functions from a large package. The construction is shifted to focus on public services, and the motivation for borrowing is reduced.

illustration

In addition to curbing the growth of hidden debt, resolving the huge amount of hidden debt is also a major challenge for all regions. The current ways for local governments to resolve existing hidden debts include arranging repayment of fiscal funds; transferring government equity and repayment of operating state-owned assets; using project carryover funds and operating income to repay; converting compliance into corporate operating debt; Repayment, repayment, renewal, etc., and bankruptcy reorganization or liquidation to resolve.

Liu Kun stated in the above article that during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, it is necessary to improve the market-oriented and legalized debt default handling mechanism and resolutely prevent the accumulation of risks from forming systemic risks.

Ji Fuxing believes that due to the economic downturn and the “tight balance” of fiscal operations, it is difficult to resolve the stock of hidden debts as scheduled, the rigid growth of new expenditures is rapid, and the financing balance is difficult. In the future, we need to break the belief in urban investment, soft budget constraints, and rigid payment. The central government will not cover debts for local governments and local governments will not cover debts for enterprises.

Qiao Baoyun believes that the resolution of existing hidden debts is very complicated, and the future resolution of debts needs to be done in accordance with market rules, and many local governments are now unable to find the bottom line.

Mao Jie said that to resolve the underlying hidden debt from the root cause, it is necessary to promote the market-oriented transformation of local government financing platform companies and become independent state-owned enterprises, isolating platform company credit and government credit.

Wen Laicheng said that at present, it is necessary to unify the definition of hidden debts of local governments, and then establish corresponding statistics, monitoring and release systems, so as to achieve the purpose of effectively managing hidden debts in accordance with the law.

Guangzhou base postponed production

If all went well, the Guangzhou Baoneng New Energy Automobile Industrial Park (hereinafter referred to as “Guangzhou Baoneng”) in Huangpu District, Guangzhou should have already been completed and even started to produce cars. However, things backfired.

On December 1, 2020, a reporter from China Business News went to Guangzhou Baoneng to conduct an on-site investigation and found that the industrial park with a planned total investment of 30 billion yuan has been under construction since the foundation laying activity was held on December 26, 2017. Among them, the factory building only completed the construction of part of the steel frame, and the ground was overgrown with weeds.

spot

The ups and downs of the domestic new energy auto market and the constant changes in the general environment have affected the investment plans and progress of many auto companies to a certain extent. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Notice on Carrying out the Investigation of the Production of New Energy Vehicles and Projects” (hereinafter referred to as the “Notice”), requiring local development and reform commissions to report to the Industry Department of the National Development and Reform Commission before November 18. The investment situation has stirred up waves in the automobile circle.

In particular, Article 3 of the “Notice” requires all regions to provide information on the planning and investment promotion of pure electric vehicle projects in the region. It clearly requires all regions to report in detail the vehicles invested and planned by Hengda, Baoneng and other enterprises in the local area since 2017. Complete vehicle and component projects (including projects that have been approved and filed, and have not yet started construction), including land occupation, construction content, project progress, completed investment, etc.

Why Baoneng was named has attracted much attention.

Schedule delay

Guangzhou Baoneng is close to Zhenlongbei Station of Guangzhou Metro Line 14. One of the entrances of the industrial park is about tens of meters away from the subway entrance. It is a veritable subway superstructure.

On the left side of the gate of Baoneng New Energy Automobile Industrial Park, a rectangular stone foundation stands with 7 dark blue square characters made of iron sheet-Baoneng Intelligent Manufacturing Zone, and is equipped with Baoneng’s logo-B.

In the park, the green billboard that has been dilapidated after the wind and sun still has the blueprint drawn in the past: the new energy vehicle manufacturing base is planned to produce 1 million vehicles per year, and the first-phase production capacity is 500,000. The project occupies an area 1,500 acres and a construction area of ​​430,000 square meters. The project adopts the most advanced international process planning and equipment investment, including the entire process of stamping, welding, painting, final assembly and PACK. Guangzhou Baoneng’s vision is to create a ” A world-class green smart factory”.

 

According to the plan on the publicity plate: the project will start construction at the end of 2018, the infrastructure project will be completed at the end of 2019 and the installation of process equipment will begin, and the first vehicle will roll off the production line in the third quarter of 2020.

On Baoneng’s official website, the reporter found a piece of news related to Baoneng New Energy Automobile Industrial Park released in 2017: “It is expected that by the end of 2019, a new large-scale automobile industry base will emerge in eastern Guangzhou.” However, it is now approaching. At the end of 2020, the Guangzhou Baoneng plant has not yet been completed, and the process equipment is missing. It will take time before trial production and formal production.

“I entered this construction site two or three months ago. I don’t know when it will be completed. It will definitely not be completed this year.” A worker from Yunnan in the park said in an interview with a reporter from China Business News. Many workers mentioned that they do not know the date of completion.

Guangzhou Baoneng started in 2017. On April 25, 2017, Baoneng signed a major industrial project cooperation agreement with Huangpu District and Guangzhou Development Zone, and decided to deploy the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area headquarters, new energy vehicles and innovative value park projects in the area.

 

On September 1, 2017, Guangzhou Baoneng Automobile Co., Ltd. was registered in Sino-Singapore Guangzhou Knowledge City; on October 13, the company successfully acquired land for industrial projects located in the south of Guanghe Expressway and west of Jiulong Avenue. Since then, Baoneng began its dream of making cars in Guangzhou.

Baoneng’s official website shows that Baoneng’s manufacturing matrix includes Baoneng Automobile, CSG, Zhongju Hi-tech, and Shaoneng Group. In terms of automobiles, Baoneng Automobile Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Baoneng Automobile”) was established in March 2017 and is headquartered in Shenzhen. The company is trying to use new energy vehicles and smart vehicles as the core to create a comprehensive coverage of forward-looking technology research and development. High-end automotive manufacturing, core components (including power batteries, three-electric systems, powertrains, etc.), automotive sales, automotive travel, automotive finance and aftermarket services, and other “auto intelligent manufacturing” entire industry chain ecosystems, which cover the entire industrial chain SUVs, MPVs, BPVs and other whole vehicle models; in the commercial vehicle industry, the focus is on van logistics vehicles, light trucks and new energy buses.

According to Tianyan Check, Baoneng Automobile, established in 2017, has a registered capital of RMB 10 billion. The shareholders are Shenzhen Baoneng Investment Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Baoneng Group”) and Shenzhen Baoyuan Logistics Co., Ltd. Among them, the former investment accounted for 99%.

Yao Zhenhua, chairman of Baoneng Group, previously stated that Baoneng’s development strategy is to firmly develop the new energy vehicle business and optimize and upgrade the fuel vehicle business. It will take 10-15 years to build Baoneng’s vehicle into a highly competitive and international market. Influential automobile group. In order to deploy in the automotive field, Baoneng strategically invested in Qoros Automotive in 2017. Qoros Automobile was established in 2007 as a joint venture between Chery Automobile and Kenon Holdings, a subsidiary of the Israel Group.

In terms of vehicle manufacturing, Baoneng currently has seven bases, including Jiangsu Changshu Qoros Manufacturing Base, Shenzhen Baoneng Automobile Manufacturing Base (formerly Changan PSA Manufacturing Base), and production in key regions such as Xi’an, Guangzhou, Guiyang, Kunming, and Kunshan base.

A reporter from China Business News learned from many sources that it usually takes more than 15 months for a new energy plant to start from ground to production, which is close to the establishment time of the Guangzhou Baoneng project. The Guangxin Intelligent Chemical Plant and Xiaopeng Zhaoqing Plant, both of which belong to the South China Department, have been completed. Completed and put into production.

On April 27, 2017, GAC Zhilian New Energy Automobile Industrial Park (hereinafter referred to as “industrial park”), located at the junction of Shilou Town and Hualong Town, Panyu District, Guangzhou City, officially started construction. The overall planning area of ​​the industrial park is about 7,500 mu. The total investment of the companies settled by GAC Group and the industrial park is expected to exceed 45 billion yuan. Guangxin Intelligent Chemical Plant is the first project of the industrial park, with an investment of 4.7 billion yuan, the first phase of production capacity is 200,000 vehicles/year, and the total planning is 400,000 vehicles/year. More than 80% of the main construction of the plant was completed in December 2018 , And put into production in 2019.

Xiaopeng Automobile’s Zhaoqing factory made its first public appearance on June 9 this year. Xiaopeng Automobile’s CEO He Xiaopeng introduced the whole process of Xiaopeng P7 from stamping and welding to final assembly inspection through a live broadcast at the factory. Xiaopeng Motors Zhaoqing Project signed a contract with Zhaoqing City to settle in Zhaoqing High-tech Zone on April 28, 2017. The overall plan is 3000 mu, the first phase covers an area of ​​903 mu, the production capacity is 100,000-150,000 vehicles, and the built-up area is 227,000 square meters.

The plant started construction on June 27, 2018, and by September 30, 2019, the main plant of the plant was completed. The equipment was fully introduced and put into trial production. It lasted 15 months, which was more than 3 times shorter than the industry average construction period. month.

In contrast, Guangzhou Baoneng advances relatively slowly.

It is worth noting that Guangzhou Baoneng is not only the progress of the project is significantly slower than expected, but also the production capacity may change.

Next to the green billboard in the Guangzhou Baoneng Park, another huge white billboard shows that Guangzhou Baoneng has updated the planned production capacity figures, the planned production capacity has become 600,000 vehicles, and the first-phase production capacity is 300,000 vehicles. Among them, the two numbers “60” and “30” were written on two squares of white paper and then pasted.

Comparing the data of the green and white billboards, we can find that the planned production capacity and the first-phase production capacity have different numbers on the two brands, but the CBN reporter cannot confirm whether these numbers and changes are official adjustments of Baoneng or the park. Private “smearing” of individual personnel within.

After the reporter conducted an on-site investigation in the Guangzhou Baoneng Park for about an hour, a staff member in work clothes ran over on an electric bicycle and asked the reporter to leave immediately.

 

Prelude to the banquet of 2.1 trillion Wealth

In March 2012, Peng Lei was appointed CEO of Alibaba micro financial services. In October 2014, the company was named “ant financial services group”. At that time, the “little ant” of Ali Group officially appeared on the stage.
Six years later, the little ant grew into an elephant, an ant group valued at $200 billion.
On July 20, 2020, ant group officially announced that it would launch a plan to simultaneously issue shares on the sci tech Innovation Board of Shanghai Stock Exchange and the main board of Hong Kong stock exchange.
Since then, its listing process has been rapidly promoted. On August 25, the Shanghai stock exchange accepted its IPO application, and on September 18, ant group launched its IPO and successfully passed the meeting. From submitting IPO application to successfully passing the meeting, ant group only took 25 days, and the speed of its sprint to the IPO of Kechuang board set a record.
On the evening of October 26, 2020, ant group announced the pricing, and the issuing price of a shares was determined to be 68.8 yuan per share, and that of Hong Kong was determined to be HK $80.00 per share, which means that its total market value is as high as 2.1 trillion yuan.
What is the market value of 2.1 trillion yuan?
Taking the A-share market as an example, when ant group announced its pricing, the listed company with the highest market value in the A-share market was Guizhou Maotai (600519. SH), with a total market value of 2.06 trillion yuan. This means that if it can be listed successfully, ant group is expected to surpass Guizhou Maotai and become the first share in the market value of a shares.
Its rapid growth can be seen from the changes in its valuation over the past few years. In 2015, ant group had a round of financing, and its post investment valuation was about 260 billion yuan. Just five years later, its valuation has almost jumped 8 times to 2.1 trillion yuan.
Different from many science and technology enterprises that continue to burn money and are still losing money when they go public, ant group has achieved continuous profits and the annual profit scale reaches 10 billion yuan. According to the prospectus disclosed by ant group, from 2017 to 2019, ant group realized the net profit of 6.951 billion yuan, 667 million yuan and 16.957 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit growth rates in 2018 and 2019 were – 90.40% and 2442.06% respectively.
In the novel coronavirus pneumonia, the first three quarters of 2020 were even more alarming: the ant group realized a business income of 118 billion 191 million yuan in January and September, up 42.56% from the same period last year, mainly from the growth of digital financial technology platform revenue, and realized gross profit of 69 billion 549 million yuan, an increase of 74.28%; the gross gross profit margin increased from 48.13% in the same period last year to 58.84%.
Although ant group passed the meeting quickly and set the world’s largest IPO fund-raising record, and its profitability was not general, in Liu Feng’s view, the timing of its listing was not a good time. Novel coronavirus pneumonia is catching up with the US general election, this year’s new crown pneumonia epidemic and some local debt crisis.
Many industry insiders interviewed by Caijing think that the reason why ant group chose to rush for IPO this year may be driven by the original shareholders behind it.
As for the novel coronavirus pneumonia’s rush to reallocate this year, Zhang Xiaorong believes that it may come from three aspects: first, the restriction of the US dollar outflow, which makes some foreign shareholders of the ant group hope to cash in as soon as possible; two is affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, some shareholders are pessimistic about the future economic development expectation, hoping to bag the security before the cold winter comes, and three is to go out. He is worried about Sino US relations. Previously, foreign media reported that the US government under trump had considered listing ant group in the trade blacklist. If this measure is implemented, it will affect the valuation of ant group when it is listed.
When it comes to the original shareholders of ant group before listing, its lineup can be described as luxurious, including national social security fund, China Post Group and other “national teams”, insurance funds such as China Life Insurance and Xinhua life insurance, as well as business tycoons such as Liu Yonghao, Shi Yuzhu and Wang Zhongjun, and many shareholders have not penetrated into the underlying private equity funds.
“Ant group’s shareholders, there may be more unknown big man.” “For example, some private equity funds, whose equity penetration is relatively difficult,” said the financial professionals to “Caijing”
According to the prospectus disclosed by ant group, its shares are relatively concentrated, and the top ten shareholders hold 93.36% of the shares in total.
Among them, Hangzhou Alibaba network technology company holds 32.64%, which is the largest shareholder. Ali is a senior management and internal employee shareholding platform. Hangzhou Junhan equity investment enterprise (hereinafter referred to as “Hangzhou Junhan”) and Hangzhou junao equity investment enterprise (hereinafter referred to as “Hangzhou junao”) hold 29.8% and 20.65% respectively, which are the second and third largest shareholders of the company. Thus, Alibaba and its members hold about 83% of the shares of ant group. In addition, among the top ten shareholders, there are national social security fund, China Life Insurance, Zhifu (Shanghai) investment center, etc.
According to the reporter of Finance and economics, the current equity structure of Hangzhou Junhan and Hangzhou junao is a transitional structure, which will eventually transform into 40% of all employees including management and 60% of shares of strategic investors including Ali.
At present, Ma Yun is the actual controller of ant group. In reply to the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s inquiry letter, ant group disclosed that Ma Yun indirectly controlled 50.5% of the company’s shares through Hangzhou Junhan and Hangzhou junao, which are the actual controllers of the company. According to the relevant articles of association and agreement, Jing Xiandong, Hu Xiaoming and Jiang Fang are the persons acting in concert of Ma Yun on matters related to the resolutions of the shareholders’ meeting of Hangzhou yunplatinum.
Previously, the industry expected that the listing of ant group will bring a new round of wealth making movement, and a large number of tens of millions and even Billionaires will be born. Ma Yun, senior executives of ant group and shares held by the company