Tagged: investing

Investing in all beings under Bitcoin

A research report issued by Citibank believes that Bitcoin is at a critical node: either it will become the mainstream digital currency adopted in international trade, or it will collapse in the wave of speculation.

Investing in all beings under Bitcoin

In the beginning of 2021, Bitcoin will earn enough eyeballs. At the beginning of January, the price rushed higher and higher, and the price rushed to above $40,000. The cumulative increase in the first seven days of the year was as high as 38%, but Bitcoin did not hold the $40,000 mark for a long time. In February, Tesla entered the game and the traditional financial giants opened their arms, which stimulated Bitcoin to rise again. However, the cold water of the US Treasury Secretary Yellen made Bitcoin plunge again. Just last week, the price of Bitcoin once stood at a record high of 58,000 U.S. dollars, and the current price has cut about 8,000 U.S. dollars (as of 7:52 on March 4th, Beijing time).

Whenever Bitcoin rides on the “roller coaster”, some people regret not getting on the car, some are fortunate to step on it accurately, and some lament that they cannot get away. After that, some people will continue to chase the myth of getting rich overnight, some will continue to follow the investment logic of Bitcoin, and some will continue to wander outside the circle. A reporter from “Daily Economic News” interviewed three individual Bitcoin investors and told about the ups and downs of their currency circle.

Image source: Photograph
“I am a gambler”

Liu Yang, 24 years old, Shanghai, media industry

I admit that I am a gambler, the kind of person who is willing to take a fight to become a motorcycle.

In 2015, I am about to graduate from high school. My mom’s friend worked in a securities company, so I urged my mom to open an account and used her account to enter the stock market. At that time, I was catching up with the military parade. I thought it would be good for military industry stocks. So I chose a few military industry stocks and caught up with the peak of 2015. I made some money and bought a new mobile phone and a pair of Air Jordan sneakers.

After the bull market in the first half of 2015, I temporarily put down the stock market. In 2018, I came into contact with Bitcoin from a friend. At that time, the price of Bitcoin was still more than $3,000. My friend said this was a bargain hunter and asked me to hold it, but I was not sure at the time.

In 2019, I entered when the price of Bitcoin reached more than 40,000 yuan. I had two coins in my hand at that time. It was sold in December of that year and earned more than 10,000 yuan.

I also participated in the latest wave of quotations. I bought it on the advice of a senior. The seniors work as real estate agencies in Shanghai, and those who do high-end real estate always hear some strange news from the rich. He told me that Bitcoin must have risen to 50,000 U.S. dollars before the Spring Festival, and later it rose to 50,000 U.S. dollars. I admire my senior.

Around January 20th of this year, I entered when Bitcoin was approaching $40,000. Because I like to gamble, I open a contract (buy call options) and never open a leverage lower than 20 times. Sometimes when you add 125 times the leverage, Bitcoin rises by 1%, and I double it by 1.25 times. They are invested in tens of thousands of tens of thousands, and sometimes I make a profit of 10,000 to 20,000.

But my margin was very low. It fell by 0.5% and forced me to liquidate the position. After several times, I lost about 20 (ten thousand) in this wave and about 80 (ten thousand) for seniors. This money was originally lent to me by my relatives for the down payment, but fortunately, he (relatives) did not need me to repay the money for the past three years.

Now I understand it. I don’t think I should do anything about Bitcoin. Winning is only a dozen or two hundred thousand. It can’t change your quality of life, but it will also affect your mentality.

I recently invested some money in A-shares, and my friend told me that this year, it can increase by up to 30%. But before I fought Bitcoin, it could rise by 30% in one day, and the leverage could rise by 200%, and it would double that day. In this way, you will have no patience, and your patience will be exhausted. For investment, it affects the mentality too much.

I originally wanted to buy a Kawasaki motorcycle when I won, and I paid the deposit, but now I don’t have the balance on hand. In March, I received a private job of 50,000 yuan, and I plan to make more money. I still have to buy a motorcycle.

“I don’t understand Bitcoin”

Happy Ears, 32 years old, Beijing, Internet Product Manager

I heard that Bitcoin is considered very early, probably in 2011, because I am a major in engineering and have always been concerned about things in the technology industry. But at that time there was no money and no investment was made.

In 2015, I started working as a product manager for an Internet securities company, and since 2017, I started to invest in value with my heart. The earnings of US stocks and Hong Kong stocks have been pretty good in the past few years, but I have never understood Bitcoin. But it was also at that time, just as Bitcoin rose sharply in the last wave, and I really started to enter the currency circle. At that time, all blockchains were very hot, and a large number of weird currencies began to conduct ICO (Initial Coin Offering).

At that time, I was still working in an Internet securities company, and I paid a lot of attention to news in this regard. I bought some ETH (Ethereum), and then used ETH to invest in a coin that I was planning to issue, about 10,000 yuan.

At that time, the coin I bought hadn’t started to go on the market, and the other party said that he could choose to keep the coin in his hand or return the ETH that I had invested. I chose to return it. When I returned it to me, ETH had increased by 5 times. But after a month, the coin I invested in was issued overseas, and it went up 100 times as soon as it went public.

Later, I participated in the issuance of some coins and made some money. Wasn’t it because ICOs were very hot at the time, and there was a huge demand for ETH. I changed all the digital currencies on my hand to ETH, but in 2018 they all changed to Bitcoin. Because I think that if you compare precious metals, Bitcoin should be gold, and other coins may be similar to silver.

It was also during that time that I started to make more value investments in US stocks and Hong Kong stocks. It was Buffett’s way of looking at company performance. What I thought at the time was that I would not invest heavily in digital currency anyway. If I wanted to buy it, I would have to spend a lot of time on it, so I gradually became less involved.

The most recent time was around May of last year. At that time, the production of Bitcoin was halved. When the price was about US$5,000 to US$10,000, I bought some more bitcoins. At that time, it was mainly based on two considerations. First, I wanted to speculate, because every time Bitcoin production was halved, it would usher in a wave of rise; second, the global epidemic was very serious at the time, and I considered Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset like gold. To use. I bought it relatively heavily and invested hundreds of thousands.

When the price rose to the range of US$15,000 to US$20,000, I liquidated all the bitcoins, and made a cumulative profit of about 50%. Later, I didn’t touch the digital currency again. I think my advantage in investment lies in the stocks. It is relatively safe to buy, and the digital currency is still incomprehensible.

I am also following the market news feeds of Bitcoin every day, knowing that it has risen sharply, but I don’t regret it either. Some friends around me have made a lot of money. They told me some of the logic behind it, but I don’t think anyone’s logic is always valid. Anyway, this matter is not within my scope of cognition. If the experience and logical reasoning methods I have now allowed me to go back and make another choice, I might still be cleared up early.

In the future, if there is a suitable price, I will still hold a small amount of Bitcoin when I have spare money. I think people who are serious about digital currency still have beliefs and have a set of cognitive systems and logic behind them. I don’t have them, so I am more conservative in this regard.

“Those who get rich overnight often also burst their positions overnight”

Authentic Rabbit Head 31 years old, Shanghai, a major Internet company

I first invested in Bitcoin in 2013. I bought 20 Bitcoins and 600 RMB each through Taobao.

At that time, I was doing industry research work, and I saw a Bitcoin science article on an electronic product forum. 99% of the responses below were mocking and questioning. But I read it carefully and checked a lot of related materials, including the white paper by Satoshi Nakamoto (the founder of Bitcoin). After reading it, I think this is a very, very high potential industry.

In 2015, I started to open a position in Bitcoin again. At that time, the price was a few thousand yuan. In 2017, when Bitcoin rose to 20,000 yuan, I completed the last time to cover the position. I now have three-digit bitcoins in my hand, and none of them have been realized because my psychological price of bitcoins is $200,000. However, when the unit price rises to 100,000 U.S. dollars, I will reassess the situation to see if I will sell some of it.

In 2016, my parents gave money to buy a house. At that time, it was actually a good time to buy Bitcoin. I originally wanted to invest all of it in buying Bitcoin, but then I still felt that I had to separate the money for life and investment. Investing is a marathon. There is no need to run too fast at the beginning and discard many things that shouldn’t be discarded.

There are many reasons to look at Bitcoin, including intricate analysis, but one of my conclusions is that Bitcoin may one day appear on the asset quotation card of the Lujiazui Ring Road, becoming a regular and relatively stable block. Investment products.

This wave of gains from January to February this year is indeed abnormal, because it has broken through the largest monthly gain in history. I think this is a bad phenomenon. During the Spring Festival, I actually expect Bitcoin to fall by a wave, so that by the end of the year, it may be able to rise to 50,000 to 100,000 US dollars. However, during the Spring Festival, Bitcoin was stimulated by Tesla’s entry, with a single-day increase of 20%. I don’t actually understand the latter situation, but I think this is a bad result, because it will take longer for the callback now.

Regarding the recent wave of ups and downs, my mentality is very calm. I also know some people in the currency circle who bought Rolls Royce after making money, but they disappeared after a bear market. In fact, there are many such things, and those who get rich overnight often burst their positions overnight.

For investment, you must be completely self-driven to explore and research. But most people prefer to be a party. I assembled my own computer to mine last year. I didn’t want to mine as much, but wanted to figure out the process. On the other hand, you cannot be a greedy person by yourself and cannot gamble.

(Note: The characters above are all pseudonyms.)

Expert talk | “For ordinary people, investing in Bitcoin means high risk”

“I have never recommended ordinary investors to invest in Bitcoin, because ordinary investors do not have the ability to bear such a high risk factor.” Jiang Han, a senior researcher at Pangu think tank, told the reporter of “Daily Economic News”. Jiang Han agreed with Bill Gates’ previous comments: Musk can invest in Bitcoin because he has enough funds to invest in Bitcoin and bear the corresponding risks, but for ordinary people, investing in Bitcoin means huge risks. In addition, in high-risk situations, short-term operations are also selected through increased leverage, which will cause serious risk amplification and may lead to liquidation.

In Jiang Han’s view, although Bitcoin is a digital asset with a certain value, the recent surge may be an irrational exuberance. Entered a state of almost madness”. Due to the lack of sufficient basic support for the big rally, it is normal for a sharp correction to occur later, and the two are closely related.

Kweichow Moutai VS Bitcoin, who is more worth investing in?

As of March 2nd, Kweichow Moutai pulled back sharply and fell to 2058 yuan. Everyone shivered, and they talked about Kweichow Moutai’s 2,000 yuan might not be guaranteed.

Kweichow Moutai VS Bitcoin

On the other side of the ocean, the United States prints banknotes indefinitely. Bitcoin once pointed to 57,000 U.S. dollars. Since then, it has fallen sharply by about 10,000 U.S. dollars from the high point.

Musk takes the hard core goods, and the goddess ARK is bullish on Bitcoin to 400,000 US dollars.

Charlie Munger stepped on Bitcoin again, believing that Bitcoin is an artificial gold substitute and too unstable to become the world’s medium of exchange.

As the two most dazzling targets in the investment field, who is more worthy of investment in the next 20 years?

Kweichow Moutai: Gradually approaching the margin of safety, the annualized rate of return in the next 20 years is about 10%+

As for how good Maotai is, I won’t repeat it in this article. You can refer to the article: If you invest in stocks and earn less than 30% a year, why not buy Kweichow Moutai?

The Kweichow Moutai performance forecast shows that in 2020, Kweichow Moutai will have a profit of 45.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10%, and revenue will also increase by 10%.

But from 2020 to before the Spring Festival, Moutai’s stock price rose sharply by 134%. Although the certainty of Moutai’s future performance cannot be shaken, the rapid rise in stock prices has greatly overdrawn the future upside space, and the post-holiday callback is a return to normal valuation.

After a sharp correction of over 20%, does Kweichow Moutai already possess investment value?

Kweichow Moutai VS Bitcoin
Source: Essence Securities
In the latest research report of Essence Securities, Kweichow Moutai’s net profit of 54.85 billion in 2021 is expected, and its net profit is expected to be 66.71 billion in 2022. Zhongtai Securities has given Maotai’s net profit of 55.27 billion in 2021 and 645.9 in 2022. Billion in net profit expectations.

Based on Kweichow Moutai’s 55 billion net profit in 2021, the current market value is 2.59 trillion, which is equivalent to 47.1 times the price-earnings ratio.

In 2022, Kweichow Moutai’s net profit is calculated at 65 billion, and the current market value is 2.59 trillion, which is equivalent to 39.8 times the price-earnings ratio.

Is this price-earnings ratio still high?

Source: Wind
From the perspective of historical price-earnings ratio (TTM), the price-earnings ratio of 40 times was once the ceiling of Kweichow Moutai’s valuation. After 2020, as the value of Moutai becomes more and more recognized by the market, this valuation ceiling is pierced, and Moutai, which has a price-earnings ratio of 40 times, is gone forever.

Want to buy Kweichow Moutai at a valuation below 40 times price-earnings ratio? The 40 times price-earnings ratio can be regarded as Moutai’s margin of safety.

Buffett once said: “Choose the best company and be a friend of time”, we make a simple calculation of the long-term profit of Kweichow Moutai:

Assuming its profit growth rate of 15% in the next 20 years, the net profit in 2040 will reach 744.7 billion yuan.

Calculated by 25 times the PE, the future market value of Moutai will reach 186169 billion. If calculated on the basis of the current market value of 2.59 trillion, the market value of Moutai will increase by 7.19 times in 20 years.

calculation process:

1
7.19 times in 20 years, are you satisfied? It sounds good, but in fact the annualized income is “only” 10.37%.

Kweichow Moutai’s family base is too strong, even so, the long-term yield is still much stronger than buying money funds. However, a long-term expected return of just over 10% may not be satisfactory to “greedy” investors.

Bitcoin: It entered everyone’s field of vision in 2013, and its revenue has been slightly better than Moutai since 2014!

 

Source: Baidu
Judging from Baidu’s search index and media index, Bitcoin entered everyone’s field of vision at the end of 2013. As for the era when one dollar can buy several Bitcoins, statistics are not taken, and there is obviously a survivor bias.

2013 was the craziest year for Bitcoin. From the opening price of $13.5 at the beginning of the year to the closing price of $754 on the last trading day at the end of the year, an increase of nearly 56 times throughout the year, “a year of wealth” became possible and Bitcoin Enter everyone’s vision.

During the Spring Festival from 2014 to 2020, based on the closing price of US$47,228 on February 13, 2021, Bitcoin achieved an increase of 62.63 times. During the same period, Kweichow Moutai rose 60.97 times, which was almost the same as Bitcoin’s increase.

In the next 20 years, which of Kweichow Moutai or Bitcoin is more worthy of investment?

The above calculation has been simple, in the next 20 years, Kweichow Moutai will rise by about 71.9 times, with an annualized income of about 10.37%.

There are different opinions on the logic of bullish and bearish Bitcoin. I will not make an evaluation here, just make an assumption: if the price of Bitcoin rises to 400,000 US dollars as ARK goddess said in the next 20 years, the current price is calculated at 50,000 US dollars. The currency will rise 8 times, and the annualized rate of return will reach 10.96%, which will be almost the same as that of Kweichow Moutai. If calculated according to 21 million, the total market value of Bitcoin will reach 8.4 trillion US dollars.

calculation process:

1
The total GDP of the United States in 2019 was 21.4 trillion U.S. dollars. In 2020, affected by the epidemic, the total GDP will decline. Assuming a constant GDP growth rate of 2% from 2020 to 2040, the US GDP will reach 32.4 trillion US dollars in 2040. By then, the market value of Bitcoin will account for 25.9% of US GDP.

When Musk began to call the wind and rain in the currency circle, when the tide of US monetary easing will eventually fade, when Moutai is still hard to find, the people complain. 20 years later, who will point out Maotai and Bitcoin?