Have you ever seen a housing agent advise clients not to buy a house for the time being? This slightly magical scene happened in Shanghai in 2021.
A few days ago, zhongzhengjun’s survey found that in early January, Shanghai’s second-hand housing landlords increased cases of price jump and sales reluctance, while the number of intermediary second-hand housing listing decreased. In addition, the listing price of some school districts has jumped sharply, and the unit price is even close to the price of luxury houses. For customers who can’t bear the price jump, the intermediary has suggested that they should not buy second-hand houses for the time being and observe them after the Spring Festival.
The reluctance and price jump of sellers and the helplessness and compromise of buyers are constantly fermenting. Industry insiders believe that although the turnover of the second-hand housing market in Shanghai is less than that in 2016, the mood is similar to that at that time, and there is an atmosphere of anxiety and panic entering the market. “The more I wait, the more I’m afraid I can’t afford it. Whether it’s my intention or not, I want to grab one.”
School district housing up more than 20% in January
In recent years, school district housing is the wind vane of second-hand housing market in Shanghai, and Xuhui District is a famous school district housing gathering place in Shanghai.
Ms. Zhu, who is in charge of the real estate agency in a certain area of Xuhui, told zhongzhengjun: “in our area, the price of school district housing has been sky high. At present, the month on month increase is 20% – 30%. There has never been such a price before, and it has been at a new high.”
“In the middle of December last year, we sold a double school district house with an area of more than 30 square meters at a price of 4.1 million yuan. In January 2021, the price of houses of the same area in the same area rose by more than 800000 yuan, the landlord listed 5.05 million yuan, and finally 4.98 million yuan was sold, with an increase of more than 20% in January. ” Ms. Zhu said.
It is understood that not only the school district housing, but also the non school district housing in Ms. Zhu’s responsible area are rising in price, “there are not many non school district housing in our area, but the house price has also risen.”
Zhongzhengjun’s visit found that the listed prices of second-hand houses in Pudong Bund area, Pudong Meiyuan area, Zhangjiang area and Sanlin area have also been rising since 2021, with different increases. The increase of school district houses is higher than that of non school district houses.
On January 10, Meiyuan Second Street, with a total area of 37.72 square meters, was built in 1985. Its unit price has reached 198000 yuan / square meter, which is close to Tangchen’s first grade. But even if the price is so high, nearly a week, the house has nine groups of intermediary to see nine times. Zhongzhengjun noticed on the intermediary platform that last year, the transaction price of one bedroom households in the community was about 140000 yuan / square meter.
According to Zhuge’s house search data, as of January 16, the average listing price of second-hand houses in Shanghai was 58060 yuan per square meter, up 2.82% from last month.
From the recent week in the sale of second-hand housing up / down on the number of housing, Shanghai’s rising prices far exceed the price of housing. According to Zhuge’s house search data, from January 9 to January 15, the number of houses with daily price increase in Shanghai is more than twice that of houses with price decrease.
Second hand housing falls into liquidity circle
At the same time, the second-hand housing market in Shanghai has fallen into a strange circle of liquidity.
As of January 16, 35800 second-hand housing units were available for sale in Shanghai, according to the shell app. However, in the past December, the turnover of second-hand housing in Shanghai was close to 40000 units. Last September and November, the turnover also exceeded 30000 units.
Shanghai second hand housing turnover and year on year growth
More than one intermediary told zhongzhengjun that the second-hand housing in Shanghai is really going to be “sold short”. “Basically sold almost, inventory housing a district can sign on one or two sets.” An intermediary responsible for Pudong Sanlin district said.
Pei Pei, a post-90s buyer who just needs to buy a house, also tells Zhongzheng Jun that she has been looking at second-hand houses for the last month’s weekend. Because she has no demand for the school district for the time being, most of the houses she looks at are not school district houses. She thinks they will not be so popular. As a result, there is still no house to buy. The landlords she looks at are not willing to sign, and the ones she doesn’t look at are hard and flawed.
From the survey of zhongzhengjun, we can see that the supply of houses with appropriate cost performance is indeed scarce. At the same time, the phenomenon of landlords jumping prices and reluctant to sell (no deposit, no signature) is more and more common.
On the one hand, it is because the landlords themselves are also in demand for replacement and dare not sell them. They are worried that they will not be able to buy them. Shanghai second-hand housing market replacement demand is still very strong, most of the second-hand housing landlords also want to buy a new house or change a better second-hand house. Ms. Zhu said: “most of the landlords now list their houses, but they are not willing to accept a deposit. They only accept buyers to see their houses. They hope that the intermediary can continue to live with the buyers, wait for them to move to a new house or choose a good house, and then tell the intermediary to collect a deposit. At that time, the high bidder will get it.”
The landlords who need replacement need to buy first and then sell. However, it is very difficult for the new house to shake the number, which leads to other landlords’ reluctance to sell, and the whole market falls into the strange circle of liquidity.
“I saw a set of second-hand housing last week, but the intermediary told me that the landlord refused to sign,” said the landlord, who refused to sign. “Two groups of people in front of the house have taken a fancy to it. If I have the intention, I will make complaints about it.” the other aunt who wants to sell the house says that the house he sees is too expensive, so he will change his house from 5 million 500 thousand yuan to 5 million 800 thousand yuan. The house they want to buy has gone up, so they want to sell it at a higher price. ”
Pei Pei said that many of the houses she wanted to see could not be seen temporarily. The intermediary told her that it was because the landlord wanted to cover up the “golden three silver four” after the Spring Festival. A person with multiple properties in Shanghai told zhongzhengjun that he expected the Shanghai property market to continue to rise in 2021, so he originally wanted to sell, but now he is not ready to sell.
Impatient market entry is unsustainable
In this trend, Shanghai’s second-hand housing market has completely become a seller’s market, an intermediary said: “at present, the housing supply is tight, with more customers and less rooms. Now as long as the landlord can sign, do not jump price, will deal
“If the landlord really sincere selling, short listing day, more than two or three days, you can sell, buying customers almost do not have too many houses to choose.” Ms. Zhu said, “there is really a wave of panic customers in the market. Now we are all persuading customers who are not willing to increase the price not to buy. We will see whether the government will make policies in the next year.”
Lu Wenxi, an analyst of Shanghai Zhongyuan Real estate market, believes that the second-hand housing market in Shanghai is really anxious to enter the market, and the market sentiment is obviously overheated. This is caused by a variety of reasons. First, investors buy up but not down. With the heating up of the second-hand housing market in Shanghai, there are fewer and fewer houses with cost performance, and the relationship between supply and demand is unbalanced. Second, the new housing market is constantly hot, but there are not many good projects, so they can only turn to the second-hand housing market. Third, the atmosphere of people-oriented speculation has begun to take shape. For example, recently, the listing price of school district houses has risen irrationally, and the unit price has even gone straight up Fourth, the Chinese New Year is late this year, which should be the off-season of the property market. However, due to the late Chinese new year, some investors overdraw the demand after the new year and will implement it before the new year.
“The epidemic situation also has a certain boosting effect. Under the influence of the epidemic, many people are unable to go abroad, and the demand is further expanding. ” Yan Yuejin, research director of think tank center of E-House Research Institute, said.
For the second-hand housing market in Shanghai, Yan Yuejin said that there is a possibility of warming up, but regulation may also follow. Lu Wenxi judged that at present, the second-hand housing market in Shanghai has overheated, and the central bank has set a red line for banks to issue real estate loans, so it is unlikely that it will continue to heat up. It is expected that the trading volume will fall in January, but the short-term market heat will continue to have inertia, and the price may fall.
As for regulation and control, Lu Wenxi said that the second-hand housing market in Shanghai may enter a stalemate and game stage from January to February, and the data after March is the trading volume and price that the market really agrees with. If the current heat is maintained in March, there is no doubt that the government’s regulatory measures will be upgraded.
It is worth noting that on January 11, the Shanghai headquarters of the people’s Bank of China held the 2021 Shanghai monetary and credit work conference, which said that it would steadily implement the management requirements of real estate loan concentration and reasonably control the scale of real estate loans.
Crazy Shanghai second-hand housing: landlord hours jump price 400000! In half a day, 47 groups of house buyers are queuing up to grab the house
Everyone who is in Shanghai now has really felt the power of this wave of overlord cold wave.
The freezing of minus 8 degrees makes the landscape lake in the community ice, which makes the children excited. They chiseled on the ice with their feet and tools, trying to make cracks and dig out the ice. Even ice the size of an egg excites them. They play in their hands, refract colorful in the sun, and don’t care about the little hands that are red with cold.
Like children, there are also home buyers who are not afraid of the cold.
This is the second Sunday in January, one month before the lunar new year in 2021. The flavor of the new year has not yet been fermented, and the heat of the property market still pervades Shencheng.
The taxi stopped at the gate of Shangcheng (pseudonym) community, jingyancheng, Jing’an District, Shanghai. Liu Xue (pseudonym) and her wife got off the taxi together. There are also two cars with them. The three groups looked at each other and did not speak. They all knew each other’s identity.
The House report in hand indicates the goal of their trip, and the competitive relationship of hunting for the same suite makes the air in this winter look particularly grim.
Liu Xuemeng’s impulse to replace began in December last year. The colleague who is buying a house in the office complains that the property market is too crazy. The lottery of a new house, such as new shares, depends on luck. He has participated in three projects, but the lottery still fails.
Liu Xue opened the Sumitomo (pseudonym) app and found that the information of dozens of houses she had paid attention to had all failed. The page showed gray “stopped selling” and red “closed”. She did not give up, began to search their own community, before the sale of 20 or 30 sets of housing has ceased to exist, community phase III currently only 4 sets in the hang, and two for the first floor. Even so, there are still 30 to 200 people paying attention to each of these “tough” houses.
Liu Xue realized that the market had changed greatly.
Zhongyuan data show that in December 2020, the transaction of second-hand houses in Shanghai hit a new high of 39000 sets, which is also the highest since 2016. Among them, the general rise of school district housing, and even a half year surge of 60% cases.
Having experienced the pain of the sharp rise of Shanghai’s property market in 2016, she worries that a new round of market will swallow up the hard savings of her family in the past few years.
Liu Xue will tell the situation to his wife, the two decided to negotiate replacement. After searching according to the requirements, they found that there are few houses left in the inner ring. Even if they expand the scope to central, the options are still limited. Liu xuegan has been passively affected by his own situation by excluding the hard damaged housing sources such as the bottom floor and long apartment types.
She selected four sets of intention to the intermediary, agreed to go to see early Saturday morning.
Not until Saturday. On Thursday evening, agent Wang Shuai (not his real name) told her that one of the sets had just been signed at the original price. Moreover, the listing price of another school district house also rose by 800000 yuan, exceeding Liu Xue’s budget. The source of this suite has increased by 400000 in the previous week, which means that the owners have increased by another 1.2 million in two weeks.
Liu Xue and her husband lamented that the two price adjustments had “folded” all their hard-working income for two years. Their range of choices is being compressed step by step.
On Saturday morning, Liu Xue and her wife began to see the house. Her husband fell in love with the new school district house in Jing’an District. However, Liu Xue hesitated because of the low floor and the crossroads, like the traffic flow of Youlong and the micro community with only two buildings. She wants to think about it again.
Hot property market where to think.
At more than 3 p.m., Wang Shuai called to tell the customers that they had already made an appointment to talk with the east side of the house. If they were interested, they had to make a decision as soon as possible. Two hours later, the house was launched from Sumitomo app.
There was a sense of urgency. Liu Xue suddenly realized that in this crazy to some magical property market, the difficulty of replacement is far beyond their anticipation.
In the words of Lao Li, a familiar intermediary, the Shanghai market has been sold short. “Every broker has 30 or 40 groups of customers, but there are no houses available. Now as long as he comes out with a good set, he will basically rob the whole city.”. Lao Li said that his customers were originally Huangpu and Jing’an, but now Zhabei (New Jing’an), Hongkou and Yangpu are all right. Even so, many people still can’t buy a house, “many owners have unstable mentality, price jump, price reversal, reluctant to sell and other phenomena are widespread.”.
At more than 8 p.m., Wang Shuai urgently told jingyancheng that there was another house in Shangcheng, near the railway station. That is the area that Liu Xue and his wife have never considered before, but the beautiful community environment and Sanfang Zhengqi apartment type let her answer repeatedly.
Liu Xue is not ignorant of this community. Although the environment is beautiful, but close to the elevated and subway, coupled with no school district, it was not in her consideration before. When the market is crazy, there are no houses that can’t be sold, and the hard damaged houses will still become the hot cakes that people scramble for.
Lao Li’s words soon came true. Liu Xue experienced the craziness of “more monks and less atherosclerosis” in the real estate market.
At more than 12 a.m. on Sunday, Liu Xue found that the price of the house on Sumitomo system suddenly jumped to 9.3 million yuan, which was 8.9 million yuan just an hour ago. Wang Shuai said frankly that because there are too many people who make an appointment to see the house, the listing price of the landlord has increased by 400000 yuan. At the same time, in order to screen out high-quality customers, there are some new changes in the requirements for seeing the house:
1. No reception for replacement customers;
2. If the down payment cannot be made before the end of the month, it will not be accepted;
3. If the down payment is less than 50%, it is an alternative.
Cash in hand and the proportion of payment have become important assessment criteria.
The person in charge of Sumitomo’s stores in the group asked all brokers and customers to accept price changes, and those who met the above conditions signed up in the group.
Even under such harsh conditions, 47 groups of customers still chose to stay.
When Liu Xue and her lover arrived, there was still a quarter of an hour to go before 1:00 p.m., and the Sumitomo store with the listing of houses had already been fully mobilized. This is an orderly preparation.
Four agents at the door are guiding. They say hello to each group of customers who come to see the house, and distribute the introduction materials of color printing. In addition to covering a number of introductions of the community, there are also selling points and hand-painted floor plans.
On the way to the building through the garden style central square, a staff member of Sumitomo is guiding us tens of meters away. For the first time, Liu Xue has a sense of new house experience in the process of second-hand house inspection.
The strong sense of ceremony made her a person who was in the middle of the event. She joked to Wang Shuai: “you are sure to sell this suite today.”
Liu Xue and his party came downstairs. There were nearly 20 people waiting in line outside the corridor. Wang Shuai crowded to the front to register for Liu Xue. There are four groups ahead. More than ten minutes later, Liu Xue and her husband finally had the chance to go upstairs to see the “beautiful appearance” of the house: in the narrow elevator room, they were silent with another group of House visitors, and no one spoke.
The black plastic bags placed by Sumitomo outside the door are full of disposable shoe covers. Liu Xue, who is about to enter the door, is told that there are too many people inside, so she can hardly settle down. After several groups of customers come out, she goes in again. She watched the people come out one after another, trying to capture their faces from the masks.
Almost every face is calm. Liu Xue thought of Wang Shuai’s explanation before she came up, “don’t show any emotion about the house after reading it. If you have something to say, you can say it again.”. She suddenly the same truth, other buyers think is also told.