Tagged: growth

Year on year growth of exports in the first quarter

South Korea’s exports reached 146.5 billion US dollars in the first quarter of this year, up 12.5% year-on-year, a record high in the same quarter over the years, according to statistics released by the South Korea Customs Department on the 15th.

Year on year growth of exports in the first quarter

Specifically, the exports of Semiconductors (13.4%), passenger cars (32.4%), ships (29.8%), wireless communication equipment (30.1%), precision instruments (20.9%) and drugs (70%) all increased significantly. The exports of these products have approached or exceeded the first quarter of 2019 before the outbreak. However, the export of petrochemical products fell by 17.1% year-on-year, with a sharp drop of 26.8% compared with that in 2019.

 

According to the analysis of South Korea’s customs department, the main reason for the five month increase in exports from November last year to March this year is that the epidemic has changed people’s lifestyle and consumption habits, resulting in new demand.

Malaysia lowers its economic growth forecast for this year

Malaysia’s central bank on Wednesday lowered its economic growth forecast for this year and promised to maintain loose monetary policy as the country recovers from the new crown pandemic.

Malaysia lowers its economic growth forecast for this year

In its annual economic and monetary evaluation report, the bank said it now expects GDP to grow by 6-7.5% this year, compared with the previous forecast of 6.5-7.5%.

 

In January, novel coronavirus pneumonia cases were surging, and Malaysia was forced to re launch travel restrictions, which brought pressure to the economic recovery. With the infection rate falling, the government has relaxed these measures, and the country’s vaccination will enter the second phase next month.

 

“Even if the economy recovers from the pandemic, we are not completely out of the woods,” nor shamsiah Yunus, governor of Malaysia’s central bank, said in his annual report. Given this uncertainty in the strength of the economic recovery, the focus of our monetary policy in 2021 will remain loose to support a solid and sustained recovery

Vietnam’s GDP growth of 4.48% in the first quarter was lower than expected

Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 4.48% in the first quarter of this year, the same as that in the fourth quarter of last year, less than market expectations, according to data released by Vietnam’s General Bureau of statistics on Monday.

Vietnam's GDP growth of 4.48% in the first quarter was lower than expected

According to the data, Vietnam’s exports increased by 19.2% and imports by 27.7% in March.

 

Vietnam was one of the few economies in the world that did not shrink from the epidemic last year. Earlier this month, Moody’s Investors Service raised Vietnam’s rating outlook from “negative” to “positive”, while confirming its “ba3” rating, saying that the country would benefit from changes in global production, trade and consumption after the outbreak.

 

In response to the move, Vietnam’s Ministry of Finance promised to “continue to implement policies to ensure macroeconomic stability and enhance economic competitiveness.” Vietnam’s parliament has set an official growth target of 6% for this year, while the government hopes to reach 6.5%.

Curb hidden debt growth

The aforementioned 26 trillion yuan of local government debts are explicit debts. Experts generally believe that the current risks of this explicit debt are safe and controllable. However, because some local governments violated laws and regulations to raise debts in the past few years, the hidden debts of local governments have grown rapidly and on a large scale. The hidden debt risks have attracted much attention.

Former Deputy Minister of Finance Zhang Hongli said at the recent seminar on the sustainable development of government debt under the new pattern that the scale of local implicit debt is large, lacks transparency, and it is more difficult and costly to prevent and resolve. Due to statistical caliber and other factors, the various parties’ estimates of the implicit debt of local governments are quite different. According to IMF (International Monetary Fund) calculations, at the end of 2018, the scale of hidden debts of local governments in my country reached 30.9 trillion.

This risk has long attracted high-level attention. Prior to this, the relevant departments have investigated and rectified the scale of hidden debt. In 2018, the central government issued a document to prevent and resolve the hidden debt risk of local governments. Various localities have successively introduced plans to resolve existing hidden debts in 5 to 10 years.

In the above article, Liu Kun devoted a paragraph to the prevention and resolution of hidden debt risks of local governments during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period.

He said that perfecting the normalized monitoring mechanism will never allow new projects or pave the way through new hidden debts. Strengthen the supervision of state-owned enterprises and institutions, improve the funding mechanism of local governments and their departments to enterprises and institutions in accordance with the law, and strictly prohibit local governments from increasing hidden debts in the form of corporate bonds. Developmental and policy-oriented financial institutions must operate prudently and compliantly, comprehensively consider project cash flow, collateral and other prudential credit granting, and strictly prohibit illegally providing financing to local governments or cooperating with local governments to raise debts in disguise. Clean up and standardize local financing platform companies and divest their government financing functions.

Qiao Baoyun said that the Minister of Finance talked about hidden debt risk prevention at a large length, indicating that the central government will make great efforts to solve this problem in the future. Moreover, the focus of future work is still to give priority to curbing the growth of hidden debts. In addition to the local governments and financing platforms that focus on supervising the demand side of illegal debt, it also emphasizes the key supervision of illegal debt financing providers, which includes development and policy. Financial institutions.

Mao Jie believes that to curb the formation of hidden debts from illegal borrowing by local governments, in addition to strengthening the supervision of state-owned enterprises, public institutions, local government financing platforms, developmental financial institutions, and other financial institutions, it is also necessary to promote the transformation of local government functions from a large package. The construction is shifted to focus on public services, and the motivation for borrowing is reduced.

illustration

In addition to curbing the growth of hidden debt, resolving the huge amount of hidden debt is also a major challenge for all regions. The current ways for local governments to resolve existing hidden debts include arranging repayment of fiscal funds; transferring government equity and repayment of operating state-owned assets; using project carryover funds and operating income to repay; converting compliance into corporate operating debt; Repayment, repayment, renewal, etc., and bankruptcy reorganization or liquidation to resolve.

Liu Kun stated in the above article that during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, it is necessary to improve the market-oriented and legalized debt default handling mechanism and resolutely prevent the accumulation of risks from forming systemic risks.

Ji Fuxing believes that due to the economic downturn and the “tight balance” of fiscal operations, it is difficult to resolve the stock of hidden debts as scheduled, the rigid growth of new expenditures is rapid, and the financing balance is difficult. In the future, we need to break the belief in urban investment, soft budget constraints, and rigid payment. The central government will not cover debts for local governments and local governments will not cover debts for enterprises.

Qiao Baoyun believes that the resolution of existing hidden debts is very complicated, and the future resolution of debts needs to be done in accordance with market rules, and many local governments are now unable to find the bottom line.

Mao Jie said that to resolve the underlying hidden debt from the root cause, it is necessary to promote the market-oriented transformation of local government financing platform companies and become independent state-owned enterprises, isolating platform company credit and government credit.

Wen Laicheng said that at present, it is necessary to unify the definition of hidden debts of local governments, and then establish corresponding statistics, monitoring and release systems, so as to achieve the purpose of effectively managing hidden debts in accordance with the law.

International finance11.24

The 15th G20 Summit reached consensus on five major economic and trade outcomes
A few days ago, the 15th summit of the leaders of the Group of Twenty (G20) was held in the form of video. All parties reached consensus on a series of major issues. Among them, five aspects of practical results were reached in the economic and trade field. One of the economic and trade achievements is the approval of the “Group of Twenty Countries’ Response to New Coronary Pneumonia and Support for Global Trade and Investment Collective Action.” Second, reach an important consensus on safeguarding the multilateral trading system and advance the necessary reforms of the WTO. In terms of its commitment to keep the market open, the G20 proposes to ensure fair competition and create a free, fair, inclusive, non-discriminatory, transparent, predictable and stable trade and investment environment. In improving the sustainability and resilience of global supply chains, we pledge to help developing countries and LDCs better integrate into the trading system. The G20 has also formulated policy guidelines to encourage small, medium and micro enterprises to actively participate in international trade and investment to promote inclusive economic growth.

IMF official: China’s continued deepening of reform and opening up will help build a new development pattern
In a written interview with a reporter from Xinhua News Agency, Helge Berger, Assistant Director of the International Monetary Fund’s Asia-Pacific Department and Director of China Affairs, said that China’s economy is recovering rapidly from the new crown epidemic. China has launched a series of deepening reforms and opening up. The measures will help promote China’s domestic economic growth and help build a new development pattern in which domestic and international cycles are the mainstay and the domestic and international dual cycles promote each other.

Biden announces “team roster”
US “President-elect” Biden announced a series of cabinet members on the 23rd. Among them, Anthony Brinken was nominated as Secretary of State, Majorcas as Secretary of Homeland Security, Avril Haynes as Director of Intelligence, and Jack Sullivan Served as National Security Advisor to the White House, and Thomas Greenfield served as the Permanent Representative of the United States to the United Nations. According to CNBC reports, Biden will nominate former Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen (Janet Yellen) as Secretary of the Treasury. If finally confirmed, Yellen will become the first female Treasury secretary in American history.

Germany’s November comprehensive PMI fell to a 5-month low
According to the monthly survey results released by the market research institution Esson Huamai on the 23rd, Germany’s November comprehensive purchasing managers index (PMI) fell from the final value of 55.0 last month to 52.0, the lowest point in five months. The survey showed that due to Germany’s lockdown measures in response to the new crown epidemic, the German service industry PMI in November fell to 46.2 from 49.5 last month, and the manufacturing PMI fell to 57.9 from 58.2 last month.

Singapore raises its economic growth forecast for this year
The Ministry of Trade and Industry of Singapore issued a report on the 23rd that, taking into account the domestic and foreign environment and the country’s economic contraction of 6.5% in the first three quarters, the expected growth rate of Singapore’s GDP in 2020 will be from -7% to -5%. “Adjusted to “-6.5% to -6%”. Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry predicts that Singapore’s economy will resume growth in 2021, with an expected growth rate of 4% to 6%.