On January 29 and 30, Shanghai Banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau and Beijing Banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau successively issued documents to further strengthen the management of personal housing credit and strictly investigate the illegal inflow of personal credit funds such as consumer loans and business loans into the real estate market. More than a week ago, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Hangzhou and other hot cities also started a new round of real estate regulation.
The reporter of economic information daily learned that at present, in some areas, the lending cycle of bank housing loans has been lengthened and the interest rate has been raised, but the large-scale loan suspension does not exist. Analysts believe that, adhering to the positioning of “housing without speculation”, banks are stricter in the qualification examination of housing loans under the background of “housing loan red line” constraints and stricter regulatory policies. The overall trend of personal housing loans in 2021 is tight, and the leverage ratio of residents’ house purchase may be stable and declining.
Illegal inflow of credit funds into the property market
They’re going to be severely investigated again
On January 30, the Beijing Banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau issued a document saying that it has issued a regulatory reminder letter to the banking institutions under its jurisdiction, requiring all banks to conduct a comprehensive self-examination on the compliance of new personal consumer loans and personal business loans issued since the second half of 2020, focusing on whether there are problems in consumer loans and business loans due to improper credit approval, inadequate management of entrusted payment, and inadequate post loan management The loan funds were illegally used to pay for house purchase, and the banks were required to rectify the problems immediately and strengthen internal accountability.
At the same time, the Beijing Banking and insurance regulatory bureau also said that it has set up a joint working group with the business management department of the people’s Bank of China and the Beijing Municipal Commission of housing and urban rural development, and will go to banking institutions to carry out special verification in the near future. In addition, it will guide the Beijing Banking Association to take positive actions in combination with the bank’s self-examination and regulatory verification, and launch a joint disciplinary mechanism against the improper and illegal behaviors of individuals and intermediaries.
The day before Beijing issued the document, Shanghai Banking and insurance regulatory bureau also issued the “notice on Further Strengthening the management of individual housing credit”, pointing out that the differentiated housing credit policy will be strictly implemented, and the minimum down payment ratio, debt repayment income ratio, loan restriction and other requirements of individual housing loans will be strictly reviewed.
The circular pointed out that the mechanism for monitoring and intercepting the use of credit funds should be improved. We should strengthen the requirements for the authenticity of down payment funds, and prevent borrowers from illegally obtaining down payment funds of personal housing loans through consumer loans, operating loans and other channels, or from obtaining bank loans by forging down payment vouchers.
According to the latest measures announced by Beijing and Shanghai, consumer loans and business loans have become the key areas of supervision. This is also a response to the recent public opinion that “in order to fill the gap of housing transaction funds or carry out arbitrage, some house buyers misappropriate consumer loans and business loans as house purchase funds or” bridge “funds”.
Yan Yuejin, research director of think tank center of E-House Research Institute, said that from the perspective of capital inflow, the inflow of various consumer loans and operating loans will face control. From the perspective of the outflow and use of funds, we should clearly control the loans with “no use, false use and doubtful use” to prevent such loan flows with unclear use.
Housing loan cycle in some areas is lengthened
There is no large-scale loan suspension
Under the background of the upgrading of real estate regulation and control in many places, some media reported that the amount of bank loans was tightened, interest rates rose, the loan cycle was lengthened, and even the loan was stopped in many places. What are the facts?
The reporter of economic information daily learned that the so-called large-scale loan suspension does not exist. In Shanghai, both CCB Shanghai branch and ICBC Shanghai branch have indicated that the housing loan is being launched in an orderly manner, and there is no so-called loan suspension. In Guangzhou, the relevant person in charge of the Guangzhou Branch of industrial and Commercial Bank of China responded that the current housing loan amount in Guangzhou is relatively tight, and the housing loan business is still accepted normally. China Merchants Bank Guangzhou Branch responded that at present, China Merchants Bank Guangzhou Branch has not stopped housing loan business, and still receives orders and loans in an orderly manner every month. In Shenzhen, the reporter conducted interviews with several banks in the area under his jurisdiction to verify the situation. From the interview, at present, the housing loans of major banks in Shenzhen have not stopped, and they are still collecting bills normally. The reporter learned from banks and real estate agencies in Hangzhou, Hefei, Chengdu and other places that there is uncertainty in the lending cycle of banks, which may need to queue up, but normal lending can be achieved after approval.
But in some areas, the extension of housing loan cycle does exist. A real estate agent in Shanghai told reporters that at present, bank lending is slow and the cycle is longer than before. It will take at least one and a half months to lend. A Shanghai branch president said, “the recent Shanghai real estate market transaction is hot, the demand enlarges, leading to a longer bank lending cycle, specifically to the branches will also give priority to lending to cooperative real estate.” In Guangzhou, according to the person in charge of an intermediary agency in Guangzhou, in July 2020, after the house purchase, the average loan period will be half a month, while in January 2021, the average loan period will be extended to one to two months. However, in Shenzhen, according to a person in charge of an intermediary agency in Nanshan District of Shenzhen, the approval speed of the four major banks is about half a month to a month. “As long as it can pass the qualification application of the lender, the general lending speed is not a problem, and there is no case of lengthening the lending cycle for the time being.”
At the same time, mortgage interest rates have risen in some areas. Since January 27, the interest rate of the first set of housing loans of the four major banks of Guangzhou industry, agriculture and China Construction Co., Ltd. has been raised to the lowest 5-year LPR by 55 basis points, and the second set of housing loans has been raised to the lowest 5-year LPR by 75 basis points. After the interest rate adjustment, the interest rates of the first and second home loans of the four major banks increased from 5.05% and 5.25% to 5.2% and 5.4% respectively. According to the feedback from banks and real estate agencies, because the turnover of Guangzhou’s real estate market in 2020 is too hot, there is a backlog of housing loans from many banks. At the beginning of 2021, banks generally used the quota to issue the backlog of housing loans in 2020, but the price rose by an average of 20 basis points compared with 2020.
Not all areas of housing loans are “rising.”. In Shanghai, according to real estate agents, the interest rate is the same as that of last year. The loan interest rate of the first set of housing is implemented according to the published price of LPR, while the loan interest rate of the second set of housing is implemented according to the 60 basis points of LPR. At present, the housing loan interest rate in Shenzhen is at the same level as last year. Generally speaking, the interest rate for the first set of housing is 30 basis points higher than the 5-year LPR interest rate for the second set of housing, and 60 basis points higher than the 5-year LPR interest rate for the second set of housing.
The leverage ratio of housing purchase is expected to decline steadily
Industry insiders said that adhering to the positioning of “housing without speculation”, under the constraint of “housing loan red line”, the overall trend of personal housing loan in 2021 is tight, and in the case of increasing relevant policies, banks are more strict in housing loan qualification examination, and it is expected that the housing loan leverage rate of residents in 2021 will be stable and tend to decline.
On December 31, 2020, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the notice on the establishment of the management system of real estate loan concentration of banking financial institutions, establishing the management system of real estate loan concentration of banking financial institutions, and setting the upper limit of the proportion of real estate loan and individual housing loan in five levels. Liang Si, a researcher at the Research Institute of Bank of China, said that overall, scale control will affect the supply of real estate credit, and the real estate interest rate may rise slightly, but it is not expected to be too large.
Pan Hao, senior analyst of Shell Research Institute, said that under the influence of the introduction of the real estate loan concentration management system, some banks may tighten the line and extend the lending cycle, which is expected to last for a long time. In this context, the decline of residents’ house purchase leverage is a probability event. “The probability of further downward LPR is low. Under the condition that commercial banks are reluctant to lend, it is estimated that in 2021, the leverage ratio of residents’ house purchase will decrease steadily.” He said.
With the upgrading of housing related credit supervision in many places, banks are also stricter in the qualification examination of mortgage lenders. Shenzhen joint-stock bank branch president told reporters that the bank’s personal housing loans are still normal receipt, orderly delivery. However, the qualification examination of mortgage lenders is more strict, the risk assessment is strict, and the house buyers who do not meet the requirements of repayment income ratio are not allowed to lend. “For example, the flow of water can’t cover the non approved loan with twice the monthly payment, the source of the down payment does not conform to the regulations except for the immediate family members, and the loan application for these home buyers will generally not pass.” The president said.