Tagged: digital

The first stock pick list for the Year of the Ox is released!

“Core assets” are too expensive to buy? Take a look at this “stock picking guide.” With the completion of the basic disclosure of the 2020 annual performance forecast, major brokerage research institutes have also adjusted their ratings and target prices for listed companies based on the performance forecast.

In terms of quantity, since late January, the number of brokerage research reports has blown out. Choice data shows that since February, there have been nearly 1,000 company research reports that have only given a “buy” or “force push” rating. The editor combed and found that with the recent deduction of the ultimate leading style of A-shares, many popular leading stocks, including Amic and CDF, have broken through the recent target prices given by brokers.

In addition to these popular stocks, comparing the latest research reports and stock prices of brokerage firms, 43 stocks have an expected upside of more than 50%, of which 8 are expected to double in the Year of the Ox.

Can “Moutais” still go down?

On February 10, CITIC Securities issued a research report and gave Kweichow Moutai a target price of 3,000 yuan. On the same day, Anxin Securities also gave a target price of 2,710 yuan. The latest closing price of Kweichow Moutai is 2601 yuan. If calculated according to the target price of 3,000 yuan, there is still about 15% of the expected upside.

The CITIC Securities Research Report stated that in the short term, non-standard Moutai products are expected to be the first to catalyze growth, maintain the price stability of ordinary Feitian Moutai, and consolidate potential price increases. Looking at the longer dimension, the company has a solid foundation for a steady increase in volume and price, with a high certainty of long-term performance growth, and is expected to fully enjoy the valuation premium. The 2021 Spring Festival dynamic sales will continue to build a stronger consensus. The investment in the liquor sector is still optimistic. Moutai has both offensive and defensive capabilities, and more catalysts are expected to lead the industry to rise.

However, while Kweichow Moutai has recently hit a new high, news of institutions’ reductions in its holdings has also continued to spread. In the fourth quarter of 2020, the world’s largest fund holding Moutai, the “America Fund-Europe Asia Pacific Growth” fund, reduced its holdings of Moutai by 450,000 shares. As of the end of 2020, the fund held a market value of 2.189 billion US dollars, equivalent to 14.195 billion yuan. During the Spring Festival, UBS (Luxembourg) Equity Fund-China Opportunities (USD) also reported reducing its holdings of Moutai. As of the end of January, Kweichow Moutai was the fund’s fifth-largest stock with a market value of 8.16. One hundred million U.S. dollars. Compared with the end of 2020, the fund’s holdings in Kweichow Moutai decreased by 3.66% Spark Global Limited.

Shanghai’s pilot project of individual housing property tax continues

On January 11, the official website of the Shanghai Municipal Finance Bureau issued the “Notice on Several Issues Concerning the Implementation of the Municipality’s Pilot Real Estate Tax Collection on Certain Individual Housing” (Hu Caifa [2020] No. 18), which clearly continued the implementation of the real estate tax pilot.

Shanghai has been piloting property tax for ten years

The Shanghai pilot property tax began as early as 2011. On January 27, 2011, in order to further improve the real estate tax system, rationally adjust the income distribution of residents, correctly guide housing consumption, and effectively allocate real estate resources, the Shanghai Municipal People’s Government issued the “Shanghai Municipality’s Interim Measures for the Implementation of a Pilot Real Estate Tax on Some Individual Housing ”(Hufufa [2011] No. 3), it is decided to start a pilot project of levying real estate tax on some individual houses from January 28, 2011.

According to regulations, the real estate tax is collected by Shanghai resident households newly purchased in Shanghai and belonging to the second or higher house of the resident household (including newly purchased second-hand stock housing and newly built commercial housing) and non-resident households in the city. Newly purchased housing in Shanghai.

The applicable tax rate is set at 0.6%. If the market transaction price per square meter of taxable housing is twice (including twice) the average sales price of newly built commercial housing in Shanghai last year, the tax rate will be temporarily reduced to 0.4%. The income collected from the pilot real estate tax will be used for expenditures such as the construction of affordable housing.

It needs to be pointed out that the “Notice on Several Issues Concerning the Pilot Implementation of Real Estate Tax on Certain Individual Housing” (Hu Caifa [2020] No. 18) issued by the Shanghai Finance Bureau this time has been postponed twice.

After the Shanghai Municipal People’s Government promulgated the “Interim Measures of Shanghai Municipality on the Pilot Implementation of Real Estate Tax on Certain Individual Housing” (Hufufa [2011] No. 3), on January 30, 2011, Shanghai Municipal Finance Bureau The Local Taxation Bureau and the Shanghai Municipal Housing and Housing Administration have jointly issued the “Notice on Several Issues Concerning the Implementation of the Municipality’s Pilot Implementation of the Real Estate Tax on Certain Individual Housing” (Hu Cai Shui [2011] No. 10) to further impose real estate tax on certain individual housing Several issues of the pilot were clarified.

In 2016, the Shanghai Municipal Finance Bureau issued a notice on the continued validity of the “Notice on Several Issues Regarding the Municipality’s Pilot Implementation of the Real Estate Tax Collection on Certain Individual Housing”, stating that the “Notice on Several Issues Regarding the Municipality’s Implementation of the Pilot Implementation of Real Estate Tax on Certain Individual Housing “(Shanghai Caishui [2011] No. 10) has been evaluated to continue to be valid, please follow the implementation.

This time, the Shanghai Bureau of Finance pointed out that according to the “Administrative Regulations of Shanghai Administrative Normative Documents”, the validity period of regulatory documents generally does not exceed 5 years from the date of implementation. The Notice on Certain Issues of the Pilot Program (hereinafter referred to as the original “Notice”) will expire in the near future, and the implementation needs to be continued after evaluation. However, due to the reform of the taxation system, the provincial and sub-provincial state taxation and local taxation agencies have been merged. The expression “local taxation authority” in the original “Notice” should not be used. In addition, all county-level administrative districts in Shanghai have been adjusted to municipal districts in July 2016, and relevant expressions need to be adjusted accordingly. Therefore, the original “Notice” was reissued.

The main technical differences between DC/EP and CBDC

 

Zhou Xiaochuan also introduced the current technical solutions for digital currency electronic payment. In his opinion, there are mainly the following:

One is an account-based electronic wallet.

Two is a QR code used by merchants. Two-dimensional codes are constantly being upgraded. For example, standardized and dynamic two-dimensional codes have appeared. The technical content of the QR code itself is not too high, so some people say that the QR code may be out of the stage soon, but it is still a technology that can be widely used.

The third is NFC near-field contact transactions, such as ApplePay and Huawei Pay. These are all tools with great potential in the near future.

The fourth is bank cards in mobile phones, including credit cards and UnionPay QuickPass that are paid via POS machines, QR codes or NFC. They can be used for NFC payments such as Cloud QuickPass, ApplePay, and Huawei Pay, as well as other forms of payment. .

Five is a prepaid card, which is still considered by many institutions. One of the sources is Hong Kong’s Octopus electronic toll collection system, which is a very good product based on IC cards and has been successfully promoted and applied in Hong Kong. Carrying a card is lighter than carrying a mobile phone. Therefore, even if mobile terminals become the mainstream configuration of travel in the future, there may be payment tools such as prepaid cards. At the same time, the prepaid card can also be used in mobile phones

The above-mentioned DC/EP technology development ideas are not exactly the same as the current CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currencies) issued by the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Japan, Italy, and Canada, and it is not a CBDC system. An idea inside. The difference between the two is:

First, the second-tier organization of DC/EP actually owns the ownership of e-CNY, guarantees that it can pay, and also owns the corresponding systems, technology and equipment. Before formulating the ideas, the central bank had studied the situation of three note-issuing banks in Hong Kong. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority commissioned three note-issuing banks to print banknotes. In the mid-1990s, before BOCHK joined in, there were mainly two note-issuing banks, HSBC and Standard Chartered. For every 7 yuan of 8 Hong Kong dollars issued by the issuing banks, they had to be handed over to the gold tube. The bureau will pay $1, and the HKMA will issue a 100% payment certificate. From the perspective of the balance sheet, each debt is to issue banknotes, assets are reserves, and the central bank issues certificates of liabilities as liabilities. This is different from the central bank’s assumption of currency ownership and liability for liabilities.

Second, in order to support the stability of the currency, the People’s Bank of China does not engage in products such as Bitcoin. Instead, it adopts different methods, such as requiring 100% cash reserves, or issuing certificates like the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. In addition, it is not impossible for the central bank to issue a comfort letter, but the degree of support is different. The common people are willing to make 100% preparations for the institution and believe that the funds are safer. In the actual system, it is not that simple, because the 100% reserve is only for cash, which is M0 in China. Other quasi-cash types are not included, let alone M1 and M2. Therefore, the reserve certificate can only deal with cash, which is different from the system where banknotes are owned by the central bank.

Third, China’s central bank and second-tier institutions are not simply a wholesale and retail relationship. The responsibilities of the second-tier institutions include understanding customers, anti-money laundering, and protection of user privacy data. These compliance responsibilities are all in the second-tier institutions. If you simply compare the CBDC, everyone feels that the responsibility lies with the central bank, but this is not the case. In order to better maintain the stability of the system, and also for anti-money laundering, the central bank should have all transaction data, but it is only a backup and has no direct commercial interests.

Blockchain technology has to wait for further development

Zhou Xiaochuan said that when he was at the central bank, a colleague also suggested that when a commercial bank issued digital currency, it seemed to be an envelope. The banknotes inside were still banknotes of the central bank. Different banks may have different envelopes designed, such as anti-counterfeiting and other aspects. It’s different, but in essence, the envelope is filled with central bank currency.

This analogy is very interesting, but he thinks it is not exactly the case: the envelope can be central bank currency, it can also be the central bank’s certificate of payment, or it can be the central bank’s comfort letter, with different degrees of assurance. If the degree of assurance is lower, the bank may be required to strictly monitor the capital adequacy rate and liquidity, and the possibility of problems is relatively small. This envelope can also put things designed by the agency itself, the general requirement is to maintain stability and effectiveness.

In short, the first responsible person in the two-tier system is still the second-tier institution. If a bank has a run or withdrawal problem, the responsibility of the central bank will vary according to different design schemes.

According to the flow chart of the concept of digital currency, Bitcoin appeared in some early international organizations or the mainstream definition of the West. The central bank discussed that this is an unstable currency. The central bank wants to develop a stable currency, so it proposed a stable currency. concept. Later, there was Libra, a private cryptocurrency, and everyone proposed that private currency should not be used, because there may be unexpected problems. It will become a central bank digital currency, so it is CBDC. Others pointed out that CBDC may be disintermediated, and it may not be easy to imagine in advance, so they began to accept the two-tier system of CBDC.

China started relatively early, the above concepts have been studied in advance, and there are preliminary opinions. When many people are obsessed with blockchain technology, the Central Bank of China has realized that things are not so simple, so in 2017, ICOs and domestic transactions of Bitcoin were banned. At the same time, the banking system does not support Bitcoin to provide services for retail payments. When everyone imagines that the relationship between the central bank and the second-tier institutions is a wholesale and retail relationship, the People’s Bank has also begun to consider a structure that goes beyond the wholesale and retail relationship.

Data privacy protection in DC/EP, as well as blockchain and distributed accounting technology

Zhou Xiaochuan also introduced the issue of data privacy protection and controllable anonymity. He said that transactions must be anonymous, but not 100%. Authoritative institutions, especially anti-money laundering institutions, must be able to grasp these data while protecting customer privacy to the utmost extent. The transaction data reported to the central bank should be mainly used for anti-money laundering, anti-terrorist financing, combating telecommunication fraud and correcting operational errors.

He himself has always advocated that it is necessary to fully study and absorb some rules of the European General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR).

When big data exchanges were popular before, in fact, a lot of personal private data was leaked, and many customers did not know that their data had been leaked or even bought and sold. If all the leaked information must be erased, the ones that should be erased must be erased. For some users, the passwords should be changed, and the accounts should be changed when the accounts are changed. This is very complicated and time-consuming, and it is not necessarily effective.

In this case, security still needs some means, such as:

1. Use an encryption mechanism to upload transaction data to the central bank. The central bank backs up and tracks the data for the above regulatory purposes, while ensuring the security of data privacy.

2. Similar to credit card refunds according to corresponding regulations and procedures, operational errors must be considered and corrected.

3. The payment operator cannot copy, transfer (excluding the data transmitted to the central bank for backup) and sell the data. If the user requests it, the relevant data must be deleted.

4. Consumers manage account limits for different purposes to ensure safety. Of course, this approach appears to some people to be complicated and inconvenient, but it is based on the judgment that a large amount of private data has already flowed into the market.

Regarding blockchain and distributed accounting technology DLT, as one of the technical directions of DC/EP, research and development are also being stepped up. Related technologies are also applied in non-payment fields in the financial system, and some have made good progress.

In the payment field, due to throughput issues, it currently cannot play a core role in the retail payment system, but the future development of technology can be expected. In addition, there are occasional errors in the payment field that need to be corrected, including credit cards. If they are wrong, they must be changed. Not only do a negative transaction and flush out the original transaction, but the original transaction record must be changed or erased. Otherwise, the information may be misused, including entering the credit information system. At present, blockchain emphasizes that it cannot be tampered with, which is in contradiction with this reality.

In short, blockchain technology has to wait for further development.

Digital RMB and cross-border payment

Other obstacles to the application of digital currency, anti-money laundering, anti-terrorist financing, and drug transactions that are of international concern are all worthy of China’s attention. In addition, China has one more concern: the issue of gambling transactions.

Regarding cross-border payment, Zhou Xiaochuan said that when Libra proposed to use cross-border remittance as the main application target, he suggested not to do it in a hurry, because there are many untrusted or suspected practices. In his view, the real difficulty of cross-border remittance is not technical, but may also involve exchange, inward and outward management, etc. For example, there are some Mexican workers in the United States. If they send money back home, Libra is very convenient, but Libra cannot be easily used in the retail market and needs to be converted into Mexican pesos. Therefore, there are still some problems with Libra’s focus on remittance, and more attention should be paid to the application of the retail system. Libra 2.0 is said to be backed up by the U.S. dollar, but even if Libra is backed up by the currency basket, because developing countries are worried about the dollarization of their currencies or other problems, things are not simple, and it is not just that there are obstacles in the technical system.

Based on the above research and analysis, Zhou Xiaochuan believes that if digital currency is to engage in cross-border transactions, it should be based on retail. In the case of retail-based, respect the policies and legal regulations of each country, respect the currency sovereignty of each country, the exchange rate system, and the relevant exchange and remittance regulations. Relying on technical measures, many problems can be solved at the moment of payment, which is also very convenient. For example, in the payment link, there may be smart contracts or payment conditions control regardless of whether blockchain technology is used or not.

In the field of digital currency, Asia is more active in East Asia, and in addition to ASEAN, where the conditions of each country are relatively large, the policy and regulatory environment is also relatively large, and the level of development is also different. In this case, China’s digital currency development can move forward steadily and slowly. First establish a solid retail payment system. On this basis, first focus on the payment of current items such as cross-border tourism, while respecting the psychology of some countries to prevent dollarization. In this process, the internationalization of the renminbi must not be based on compulsion. Don’t let people worry about the renminbiization of the currency. The central bank should focus its energy on maintaining the clearing link of cross-border payment cooperation.

Macroeconomics and Real estate focus

Macroeconomics

1. Ouyang Ziyuan, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences: my country is preparing for a manned moon landing. The mission of Chang’e 5 is the final piece of our country’s unmanned moon exploration. We have already completed the lunar orbiting exploration and the landing moon exploration. After completing these tasks, we will build a lunar base and prepare for a manned moon landing. We have to explore several other planets in the solar system and advance toward the sea of ​​stars in the solar system.

2. Zhang Yong, CEO of Alibaba: China’s digital economy is already at the forefront of the world. The relevant state departments are seeking opinions on the policies and regulations in the field of platform economy, which we believe is very timely and necessary. In the process of great development, many new problems and challenges will definitely arise, and policies and regulations that keep pace with the times are needed to manage. We will actively learn and respond to national policies and regulations, and build a healthier platform economy with our own higher requirements.

3. Securities Daily: As of now, the total amount of secondary capital bonds issued by banks during the year has approached the 600 billion mark, exceeding the issuance level of last year. In addition to the “rolling” issue of multiple Tier 2 capital bonds this year by many banks, many small and medium-sized banks have adopted a combined issuance of Tier 2 capital bonds and perpetual bonds during the year, using various tools to continuously supplement capital.

4. Chinanews.com: “China Internet Development Report 2020” is released. In 2019, the scale of China’s digital economy reached 35.8 trillion yuan, accounting for 36.2% of GDP, and the total scale and growth rate of China’s digital economy ranked among the top in the world.

5. The Central Bank: On Monday, the Central Bank launched a 7-day reverse repo operation of 40 billion yuan in the open market, and the winning interest rate was 2.20%. No reverse repurchase expires on the same day.

6. Overnight Shibor reported 1.8390%, down 12.00 basis points. The 7-day shibor reported 2.1930%, down 3.50 basis points. The 3-month shibor reported 3.0470%, an increase of 2.60 basis points.

Real estate focus

1. Economic Information News: By the end of the year, real estate companies are facing the dual pressure of reducing debt and offsetting performance. In the fourth quarter, under the guidance of policies, the impact of real estate companies’ leverage reduction has continued to deepen, and the financing side has continued to be restricted. Industry analysts believe that under the expectation of tightening industry financing and the pressure on annual sales targets, real estate companies may increase launches and sales collections in the future, and supply is expected to continue to increase at the end of the year.

2. Jiangxi Provincial Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development: Printing and distributing the “Notice on Further Strengthening the Supervision of Pre-sale Funds for Commercial Housing.” It is proposed that the pre-sale funds of commercial housing should be included in the supervision, and all house purchasers must deposit in a special account. Pre-sale funds for commercial housing include all housing prices (including deposit, down payment, installment payment, one-time payment, bank mortgage loan, housing provident fund loan, and full renovation of commercial housing, etc.) paid by the buyer in accordance with the contract.

3. The 21st century: On November 23, Shenzhen had a total of 8 land transfers with a total construction area of ​​2.24 million square meters, attracting 28 real estate companies to sign up, and the final land price was about 34 billion. Among the 8 parcels, the construction type of the Baoan Shajing parcel is for saleable talent housing, and the rest are ordinary commercial houses.

4. Financial Street: A wholly-owned subsidiary won the bid for the use rights of state-owned construction land on plots 08-04 and 15-02 of BSPO-2302 unit, Baoshan District, Shanghai, at a total price of 1.83 billion yuan. The land use is residential land.

5. Deloitte: Affected by the new crown epidemic, the construction of office buildings in central London from April to September this year dropped by 50% compared with the previous six months. The survey shows that the area of ​​office buildings under construction has fallen to 2.6 million square feet (about 240,000 square meters), which has returned to the historical average from the high level before the outbreak.

Comprehensive current affairs11.24

Xi Jinping sends a congratulatory letter to the World Internet Conference and Internet Development Forum
The World Internet Conference•Internet Development Forum opened in Wuzhen, Zhejiang on November 23. More than 500 representatives from more than 20 countries and regions attended the conference. President Xi Jinping sent a congratulatory letter to the forum. Xi Jinping emphasized that China is willing to work with other countries in the world to seize the historical opportunities of the information revolution, cultivate new drivers of innovation and development, create a new phase of digital cooperation, create a new pattern of cyber security, build a community of shared future in cyberspace, and work together to create a better future for mankind.

All 832 national-level poverty-stricken counties across the country take off their hats
On November 23, Guizhou Province announced that all poverty-stricken counties had achieved poverty alleviation. So far, all 832 national-level impoverished counties in my country have been lifted out of poverty.

Successful launch of Chang’e 5 probe
At 4:30 on November 24th, China successfully launched the Lunar Exploration Project Chang’e-5 probe with the Long March 5 Yaowu carrier rocket at the Wenchang Space Launch Site, successfully sending the probe into the scheduled orbit and opening China’s first extraterrestrial object Sample the return journey.

More than 13,000 people were punished for violating the spirit of the eight central regulations in October
The website of the State Supervision Commission of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection announced on the 23rd the monthly report on the investigation and punishment of mental problems in violation of the eight central regulations. According to the report, in October, 9,309 mental problems in violation of the eight regulations of the central government were investigated and dealt with, 13,442 people (including 57 prefecture-level officials and 737 county-level officials) were investigated and dealt with, and 8,879 people were given party discipline and government sanctions.

State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission deploys and solidly promotes benchmarking world-class management improvement actions
On the 23rd, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held an on-site promotion meeting for benchmarking world-class management improvement at Sinopec Zhenhai Refining & Chemical Branch in Ningbo, Zhejiang, summing up and exchanging the practices and experiences of excellent enterprises to build world-class enterprises, and carrying out the benchmarking world-class management improvement actions. Redeploy and advance.

State Administration of Radio, Film and Television: Underage users cannot give rewards
The State Administration of Radio and Television recently issued a notice clarifying that the online show live platform should implement real-name management for network anchors and “rewarding” users. Users who have not registered with the real-name system cannot give rewards, and minor users cannot give rewards.

China’s digital economy reaches 35.8 trillion yuan
The “World Internet Development Report 2020” and the Blue Book were released at the 2020 “World Internet Conference•Internet Development Forum” on the 23rd. The report pointed out that in 2019, the scale of China’s digital economy reached 35.8 trillion yuan, accounting for 36.2% of GDP, and the total scale and growth rate of China’s digital economy ranked among the top in the world.

Jiangxi: Pre-sale funds of commercial housing are all deposited into the supervision account
The Jiangxi Provincial Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and Jiangxi Banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau jointly issued the “Notice on Further Strengthening the Supervision of Commercial Housing Pre-sale Funds”, requiring further strengthening of the supervision of commercial housing pre-sale funds. Real estate development enterprises must determine the supervision bank before applying for commercial housing pre-sale license , And opened a special account for the supervision of pre-sale funds with the building as the basic unit. All pre-sale funds shall be deposited in a special account for pre-sale funds supervision.

Hong Kong established the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Development Office
The Bureau of Constitutional and Mainland Affairs of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government announced on the 23rd that the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Development Office was formally established to strengthen the promotion and coordination of the work of the Special Administrative Region Government on the construction of the Greater Bay Area. Yuan Minzhong is appointed as the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Development Commissioner.

Chen Maobo: If digital renminbi can be used in cross-border payments, it can promote the interconnection between Hong Kong and the Mainland
Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government Financial Secretary Chen Maobo said on the 23rd that if digital renminbi can be used for cross-border payments, it will further promote the interconnection between Hong Kong and the Mainland, especially the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.