Tagged: consumption

American Carnival consumption

Karen ward, chief European strategist at JPMorgan (156.28, 1.16, 0.75%) asset management company, believes that US consumers release their pent up savings and set off a huge wave of consumption, which may push the inflation of Qualcomm (140.57, 0.23, 0.16%) and disrupt some parts of the stock market.

American Carnival consumption

Ward said that JP Morgan estimated that Americans accumulated about 8% of the GDP savings in the US during COVID-19, and their spending options were limited.

 

Ward, a former senior economic adviser to the UK Treasury, said she thought most of the money would be released in the consumer binge. If you add Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus bill (about 9% of GDP), it could push up inflation.

 

“I’m not talking about runaway inflation in the ’70s, but I think the average inflation rate in the next 10 years is more likely to be 3% than 1%,” Ward said

 

The central consumer price index, the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator, was 1.5% in January.

 

Ward said that as investors respond to the new situation, rising inflation may lead to some volatility in the stock market. She added that the confusion surrounding the Fed’s tolerance of higher inflation and employment levels would also bring uncertainty.

 

Wharton said she believed that with inflation rising, US bond yields would rise further and could trigger further volatility in some areas of the market.

 

She said the Fed’s tolerance of higher inflation and a stronger job market could also cause problems.

 

“They don’t just want full employment, they want inclusive employment. So what does that mean? ” “I think it might give us some volatility.”

 

However, Ward said that global stock markets in general are unlikely to have major problems as stronger growth should support corporate earnings.

“New weekend economy” becomes a new engine of consumption

1、 New weekend Economy: emotional consumption in the scene of weekend as time node

becomes a new engine of consumption
With the Z generation of young consumers becoming the main force of the new era, the whole market is gradually changing with the changes of their consumption mode and consumption demand. “Arrange for the weekend”, which is the consensus of the Z generation youth group. The young people who have taken over the consumption market are not only the main groups of content consumption, but also the main experiencer and leader of “eating, drinking, shopping and entertainment”. On weekends, they punch in, socialize, shop, go to KTV to sing, and jump in bars. These activities have become the main ways for the Z generation youth to relax, socialize and entertain on weekends, so the “new weekend economy” is becoming a new force of economic growth.
The new weekend economy refers to the economic category that takes weekend as the time node or provides economic supplies with weekend as the theme. For example, use weekends to drive with family and friends in surrounding cities, or take part in a two-day and-a-night Music Festival on weekends. More recently, white-collar consumption is also a typical weekend economy. From the office building to the large shopping malls, weekends are usually the time when the order volume and sales volume are the most.
Weekend consumption is a great deal of emotional consumption for generation Z consumers. For example, in order to comfort their hard week to release the pressure of the mood, can and 35 friends in the weekend to gather together. On weekends where work pressure is removed, order a small wine in barbecue stand and wine house, and then a few barbecue strings to release the exhaustion of a week; on weekends sleeping to natural wakefulness, dress up carefully, and then book a long-lasting online red restaurant, and set the holiday by checking in. In a way, weekend is a time node where people can release their emotions, whether they want to vent, socialize, learn or consume tens of millions of dollars. But the time latitude scene of the weekend is unchanged. By spending on weekends and releasing their mood, weekends will be the real “rest day”.
The new weekend economy has great potential, and consumers’ willingness to consume on weekends is generally much higher than that of working days. For example, the report of “insight into the trend of food consumption in the dining hall by 2020” issued by the food and beverage Institute of the United States Group also reveals the potential of weekend consumption scenarios: during the recovery period of epidemic, the vitality of catering hall food consumption returns, and the weekend catering consumption has contributed significantly to the recovery of the whole catering market. The online food search heat of meituan in June to July is 27% higher than that of working days; the online orders of weekend catering account for 37.7% of the total orders of the whole week, and the daily average quantity is 1.5 times of the working day. Weekend catering consumption has driven the economic recovery and is becoming a new engine driving consumption.

becomes a new engine of consumption
On weekends, consumers can spend more time freely and have more opportunities to spend, so they play a key role in consumption. Many enterprises have seen the importance and development space of the new weekend economy, and took the lead in opening up a new blueprint with innovation. For example, the United States Group has launched weekend promotions such as “super weekend” and “crazy weekend”. Especially in the weekend activities of “815 super free food festival”, there are many innovations, which are specially designed to create special benefits and benefits for weekend scenes. At the weekend of August 15-16, the event not only launched exclusive brand offers, but also launched the “shopping cart full reduction across stores” and other play methods, which set off the weekend food and beverage consumption boom. During the 815 super free food festival, only two days from August 15 to 16, the total consumption on the mass online reached 137million yuan, with more than 2.05 million milk tea coffee, 1.34 million hamburger fried chicken and 1.09 million ice cream sold.
2、 Characteristics of “new weekend economy”: young people, night consumption, and circumjacent travel
Compared with other scenes, weekends can stimulate people’s enthusiasm for consumption. After a busy week, people need a specific time to relax. Go to the beauty shop for massage, stroll around the city, or have a good meal. This kind of accessible and freely controllable weekend consumption mode is the primary choice for most consumers in the post epidemic era. Meanwhile, with many industries launching various activities with weekend as the theme, the industrial chain of the new weekend economy has gradually formed.
The three prominent features of the new weekend economy are young people, night consumption and surrounding tours. First, whether it is the continuous insight of various consumption reports on the passenger flow group or the data feedback from the Internet, it is very clear that the importance of young groups for consumption is clearly marked. Moreover, the report of insight into the trend of food consumption in the dining hall in the weekend 2020 shows that the group under 35 is the main force of weekend night consumption, accounting for 85% of the weekend night market, and the favorite snack, barbecue and drink three categories, which indicates that the consumption capacity of young people on weekends is huge.
Secondly, night consumption is also one of the characteristics of the new weekend economy. According to the survey data of the Ministry of Commerce, the peak passenger flow of more than 1 million people in Wangfujing is in the night market, and the commercial sales volume at night accounts for 50% of the day in Shanghai. The catering turnover of Chongqing is over 2/3 in the night, and 55% of the service industry output value in Guangzhou comes from the night economy.
Meanwhile, from the weekend consumption of “815 super preferential Food Festival”, consumers in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen prefer night nights. The proportion of orders from 9:00 p.m. to 6 a.m. accounts for more than 20% of the total daily orders, of which Guangzhou is 32.7%. Thus, there is a great room for the increase of night consumption on weekends.
Finally, the surrounding tour is also a popular consumption mode for the generation Z young people. In the current situation where the epidemic situation is not fully controlled, a large number of overseas tourism has been converted into domestic tourism, among which, the demand of surrounding cities is the most vigorous instead. Because the surrounding tour can be realized on weekends, it is convenient and quick to travel without long journey or schedule in advance. It is said that walking on the road is a good choice for weekend leisure. The surrounding resort in many areas is difficult to find on weekends. The “weekend free flight” launched by China Eastern Airlines can take the flight of East Airlines for 3322 yuan at weekends. Changfei can fly to major cities except Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. Once the products are launched, the market reaction is strong, and the app purchase entrance of China Eastern Airlines has been squeezed once.
3、 Social consumption, grass planting consumption and emotional consumption will be new opportunities for the incremental growth of “new weekend economy”
Under the influence of the epidemic situation, “new weekend economy” has played an important role in promoting the recovery of consumption and promoting economic growth. The new weekend economy as the core of life style, one-stop consumption new business forms, there is a huge market stock and unlimited potential of future increment. When the merchants and platforms on the supply side start to expand the consumption space and actively create weekend boutique scenes from the aspects of food and housing, travel and entertainment, we should also pay attention to new incremental business opportunities to realize further upgrading and development.
When enterprises are transforming into the new weekend economy, we must grasp three key points to grasp the wave of the new weekend economy. First, social consumption. On weekends, the social needs of generation Z group are more intense, because generation Z is basically the only child, and they attach great importance to the communication and interaction between friends. It is an opportunity for the Z generation consumers to experience the pleasure in weekend social interaction.
Taking the crazy weekend jointly held by KFC and the United States as an example, in combination with the consumers’ mind of weekend party, KFC has launched multiple party packages for consumers to choose. For example, the original price of “enjoy meal” for 4-5 people is only 117 yuan, and the average cost is 23.5 yuan. According to statistics, KFC sales rose 68% on a month on month during the crazy weekend event in July, which is closely related to the preferential activities with the concept of “dinner and social” as the core concept. Second, according to the data of meituan, generation Z young people think it is delicious to eat together. Hot pot, barbecue and barbecue with social attributes have become the c-place choice for the youth to have dinner on weekends. Social consumption is the differentiated demand of generation Z, they are not only for eating, but also for social use.
Second, grass consumption. With Z generation becoming the main group of consumption, they have different demands from the previous generation X and generation y. For example, young people like to “plant grass for consumption”. “Planting grass” is the proper term of generation Z. they like to see the relevant content shared by others before shopping. If the content shared by the other party is interested in themselves, generation Z will generally try, that is, “grass planted”.
In the weekend consumption, generation Z young people often collect activities suitable for spending on weekends and be planted on weekdays. After being planted, they will accumulate certain expectations continuously. In addition, they want to reward themselves on weekends. These Z generation young people often achieve their “small goals” of being planted on weekends to obtain fresh feeling and satisfaction A sense of humor.
Big data show that eating list will become a new search keyword on weekends. It is with the platform like meituan that consumers can plant grass first and then consume. Businesses can promote their own brands in this way, such as finding influential KOL, online red and bloggers to promote, so as to expand their popularity. Once there are more recommended people, these Z generation consumers will be attracted to generate consumer will.
Third, emotional consumption. It refers to the young users not only pay attention to the function of products and services, but also pay more attention to the release and expression of emotion. Generation Z young people know more about enjoying life and relaxation. The young people who have accumulated certain pressure and exhaustion tend to release their emotions at the weekend, which can control their time and belong to the youth of generation Z. what they want to do is to leave the troubles accumulated in working days, and be themselves and express themselves on weekends. For example, the “weekend follow the fly” activity of China Eastern Airlines is that it gives the flight freedom and follow-up emotion, and can move young users who advocate freedom and walk on. For example, Chaoyang Joy City in Beijing has built a “youth ideal life festival” market only opened on Friday and weekend in outdoor square. The businesses that have settled in include some catering brands, art galleries, cultural and creative shops and handmade shops, so that consumers can feel their ideal life and have warm and charming emotional experience. The event attracted more than 150000 consumers to punch cards, and the huge traffic of people brought considerable potential consumers to the business. The passenger flow of the mall has increased by more than 30%, and the sales volume has increased by more than 40%. It can be observed that if the business can attach emotion to goods or services, it can move consumers more, thus creating new incremental opportunities.
It is not difficult to see that weekend is a key consumption scenario worth the efforts of the business. The “new weekend economy” is becoming one of the effective means to stimulate consumption demand and realize incremental. Unlike other economic categories, the new weekend economy is more active on the supply side – that is, by focusing on weekend consumption scenarios, and supporting the multi-element and effective supply, the enthusiasm of mass consumption is mobilized. Moreover, the core of social consumption, grass planting consumption and emotional consumption is actually the transformation and development of thinking for businesses. From the product thinking from the previous self to the scene thinking with users as the core, this is the key to realize the economic growth in the new weekend.

How can a pen support the trillion market?

I don’t know if you have noticed that more than ten years ago, the products in the stationery shop were still divided into two parts, half real color and half morning light. Now, stationery stores rarely see real color products again.

Looking at the recent situation of Chenguang, we can get a glimpse from the latest financial report.

cheng guang

8 times growth of “small track”

On October 27, Chenguang stationery released the third quarter report of 2020.

According to the report, the company achieved 8.538 billion yuan of operating revenue in the first three quarters, with a year-on-year growth of 7.43%, and a net profit of 913 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.85%.

In the past eight years, the overall revenue growth of Chenguang stationery has been maintained above 22%, which is no less than that of Maotai and Haitian; in terms of net profit, it has increased from 129 million yuan in 2011 to 1.06 billion yuan in 2019, an increase of more than 8 times.

Stationery is an industry that can make money stably through the economic cycle: the demand elasticity is small, the industry periodicity is weak, and the fluctuation of enterprise development is small.

As a leader in the industry, Chenguang naturally receives more attention. Since listing, it has risen from the lowest 7.7 yuan to the highest 83.27 yuan in five and a half years.

However, we can see that the growth rate of stationery market is slowing down.

With the change of domestic population structure, the decline of birth rate, and the gradual promotion of network and paperless office teaching, the contribution of stationery industry relying on quantity growth is weakened, and more growth comes from consumption upgrading and product upgrading.

However, China’s per capita stationery consumption is only 105 yuan / year, which is more than double the global average consumption level of 240 yuan / year. If the per capita consumption is doubled, the stationery market size is expected to exceed 300 billion yuan in the future.

In addition, the concentration of China’s stationery industry is still very low. There are more than 8000 stationery enterprises in China, and only 5 enterprises with sales of more than 1 billion are Chenguang stationery, deli group, Qixin group, Guangbo shares and true color stationery.

Among them, the largest company, Chenguang stationery market share is only 7.3%, and the top five companies only account for 17%.

Compared with the 67% Cr5 market share of the stationery industry in the United States and 62.5% in the Japanese stationery industry, there is still more than three times the gap between the domestic leading enterprises, and there is still room for the growth of head enterprises.

Bottleneck and struggle

At the beginning of 2008, Chenguang was just a manufacturer selling refills. When the business reached a certain scale, it naturally faced the bottleneck of development, and its revenue has been unable to go up.

After inspecting a large number of markets, the chairman of the board decided to replace new signboards for the shops around the school free of charge. Each signboard cost at least 3000 yuan, which was also a big expense at that time. Of course, the premise was that the store could only sell the pen of morning light in the future.

The shop owner thought, in any case, a brand new white, sell whose pen is not sold?

As a result, Chenguang began to seize the market crazily. Later, Chenguang replaced the shelves of stores for free, on the condition of increasing sales categories, such as schoolbags, book clips, notebooks, stickers, toys, and so on. In this way, Chenguang transformed from a company that only sold pencil refills into a company of stationery categories, with explosive growth in revenue.

Up to now, Chenguang stationery has been involved in seven major businesses, including fine cultural and creative products, children’s fine arts, office stationery, popular stationery, krip, retail stores, and Chenguang technology. It has 36 first-class partners, second-class and third-class partners in nearly 1200 cities in China, and has more than 85000 retail terminals.

By the end of 2019, the number of terminal stores covered by morninglight reached 85000, an increase of 11.84% over the same period of the previous year, and the campus coverage rate exceeded 80%.

Among the 180000 stationery retail terminals in China, there are about 4 stationery retail terminals in Chenguang for every 10 school side stationery stores.