Tagged: commercial

2020 CBN China Listed Real Estate Companies Value List

Since 2019, the overall real estate policy has adhered to the basic regulation policy of “no speculation in housing and housing”, which has demonstrated a high degree of policy coordination from the central to the local level, from demand management to supply management. The Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee held on July 30, 2019 proposed that “real estate should not be used as a short-term means of stimulating the economy”, which fully released a clear signal of my country’s unwavering adherence to real estate regulation. Local governments have followed up in a timely manner in accordance with changes in the situation, implemented policies for each city, and implemented one policy per city to ensure the smooth operation of the market and increase the pertinence of policies. Some cities have moved from city to city to district, and implemented policies according to the situation to ensure the stable operation of the real estate market.

Entering 2020, affected by the black swan of the epidemic, the real estate market transactions in the first quarter were cold. Following the effective control of the epidemic, the social economy gradually stabilized in the second quarter, and the property market gradually stabilized. In the first half of 2020, the national commercial housing sales and sales area were 6.69 trillion yuan and 694 million square meters, respectively. Affected by the epidemic, both of them declined by different degrees compared with the same period in 2019, down 5.4% and 8.4% year-on-year, but 1 The decline in June was 5.2 percentage points narrower than that from January to May, and the real estate market gradually recovered. Among all types of properties, residential sales fell by 2.8%, office building sales fell by 28.0%, and commercial business housing sales fell by 25.5%. The office market was greatly affected by the epidemic, and the residential market as a whole was not affected too much. influences.
From the perspective of each region, in the first half of 2020, the sales area of ​​commercial housing in the eastern region was 285.11 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%, and the rate of decrease was 4.5 percentage points lower than that in the first five months; sales of 3,711.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.6%, the rate of decrease was closed Narrow by 6.1 percentage points. The sales area of ​​commercial housing in the central region was 184.5 million square meters, down 14.1%, and the rate of decline narrowed by 3.2 percentage points; sales of 1,314.7 billion yuan, down 14.4%, and the rate of decrease narrowed by 4.1 percentage points. The sales area of ​​commercial housing in the western region was 199.08 million square meters, down 5.6%, and the rate of decline narrowed by 3.7 percentage points; sales of 1,448.4 billion yuan, down 4.6%, and the rate of decrease narrowed by 4.4 percentage points. The sales area of ​​commercial housing in Northeast China was 25.34 million square meters, down 17.3%, and the rate of decline narrowed by 5.1 percentage points; sales of 214.4 billion yuan, down 12.5%, and the rate of decrease narrowed by 7.0 percentage points. On the whole, different regions are affected by the epidemic in different degrees, and their impact on the market is also different. Although sales in various markets across the country declined in the first half of the year compared with the same period in 2019, with the improvement of the domestic anti-epidemic situation and the successive introduction of relevant favorable policies by local governments, the overall situation is gradually improving.

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In the first half of 2020, due to the impact of the epidemic, many real estate companies were forced to lengthen their sales cycles and slow down development, but “scale” is still the mainstream thinking in the market. The sales scale of leading real estate companies continues to grow, and the industry concentration continues to increase . In the first half of 2020, Country Garden, China Evergrande, and Vanke still firmly occupy the top three sales positions of Chinese real estate companies. China Evergrande’s contracted sales amounted to 348.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.8%. Country Garden’s equity sales amounted to 266.95 billion yuan, down 5.3% year-on-year; Vanke’s contracted sales amounted to 320.48 billion yuan, down 4.0% year-on-year. Evergrande’s sales volume rose against the trend, mainly due to its first implementation of “online sales” since February and a large discount. In the first half of 2020, Evergrande proactively implemented the “price-for-quantity” strategy, and the average sales price per square meter dropped from 10,756 yuan in the same period in 2019 to 9,029 yuan, a price reduction of up to 16%. This strategy helped Evergrande realize High sales growth.
When the desperately running real estate company just recovered from the epidemic, news of regulation came again. The introduction of the “three red lines” will measure the financial status of real estate companies from the overall, long-term, and short-term dimensions, and overall control the high leverage risk of real estate companies. This will not only have a profound impact on leading real estate companies, but also on small and medium-sized real estate companies. Radical acquisition of land for expansion and high turnover may be restricted. Under the new game rules and market logic, market differentiation is deepening, and a round of reshuffle is inevitable. For the real estate industry, this aspect is to ensure the overall long-term and healthy development. On the one hand, it also drives the real estate industry from a stage of rapid growth to a stage of high-quality development.
On the whole, under the impact of the epidemic in the first half of 2020, the concentration of the real estate industry has accelerated, and the competition law of “the strong always keep strong” has not changed. Although the growth rate of head enterprises has slowed down, they pay more attention to quality growth. Actively explore and practice in areas such as strengthening customer research, enhancing product capabilities, optimizing urban layout, and enhancing product effects. I believe that in the context of market pressure, future industry competition will not only be the competition of sales scale, but will also be reflected in the company’s own capabilities, such as profitability, financing capabilities, risk control capabilities, and operational capabilities. An important component of the core competitiveness of future real estate enterprises.
In the context of the regulation of the property market and the reconstruction of social order, investors will be more cautious in investing in real estate companies. Listed real estate companies are the vane and backbone of the real estate industry. Studying the value of their equity investments will help to dig out a number of benchmark real estate companies and reduce decision-making costs. Initiated by CBN, and jointly presented by the China CBN Real Estate Enterprise Value List in collaboration with Tongce Research Institute, it targets more than 200 sample listed real estate companies in terms of profitability, capital market performance, operational capabilities, and financing capabilities. Analyze the status quo and strategic direction of the industry from the perspective of equity investment value such as solvency and enterprise scale.
In this study, we added the data of the 2019 annual report on the basis of the data of the 2020 mid-year report, and weighted it with the data of the first half of 2020. Taking into account the impact of the special factor of the epidemic in the first half of the year, the financial data and sales and land bank data released by real estate companies in the first half of 2020 may be subject to large fluctuations. In order to more fully reflect the investment value of real estate companies over a period of time, while focusing on the data for the first half of 2020, we have extended the data span and added the operating data released by the real estate companies in 2019 to supplement it. This comprehensive analysis and judgment of the value research system.

Eggshell Apartments has been involved in rights protection disputes

Recently, Eggshell Apartments has been involved in rights protection disputes among tenants, landlords and suppliers. On November 16, some media quoted the news of Eggshell’s resigned employees saying that Eggshell Apartments might declare bankruptcy, which caused a heated discussion on social media for a while. WeBank, which cooperated with Eggshell Apartment to “rent loan”, also appeared on the hot search.

On the evening of December 2, WeBank released a plan for repaying the rent of Eggshell Apartments on Weibo.

Eggshell Apartments

WeBank announces repayment plan for eggshell apartment rental loan: interest-free extension to the end of 2023

On the evening of December 2nd, Weizhong Bank released the Eggshell Apartment rent loan repayment plan on Weibo, stating that all customers of the bank affected by the Eggshell Apartment incident will be given the remaining loan principal after the customer’s request and the bank’s confirmation Interest-free extension. Before December 31, 2023, the bank will not deduct or accrue interest, and will not affect credit records.

As of December 1, among the bank’s 161,845 customers renting in Eggshell Apartments, 40077 were confirmed by WeBank after the customer’s request.

WeBank said that based on the current information from all parties, it is estimated that the disposal of problems related to the eggshell apartment incident may last a long time. If the eggshell apartment incident remains unresolved by December 31, 2023, the bank will announce a new customer rights protection plan as appropriate.

At the same time, the bank emphasized in the announcement that in accordance with the “Commercial Bank Law” and “General Rules on Loans” and other relevant laws and regulations, the bank as a commercial bank has no right to exempt loans.

 Apartments

Shanghai Housing Management Bureau interviewed Eggshell Apartments: Require companies to properly handle conflicts and disputes

Just the day before, in response to the situation where the landlord drove away the tenants and the rent of the room was difficult to return in the eggshell apartment, the Shanghai Housing Administration responded that it had interviewed companies and asked them to properly handle conflicts and disputes.

On December 1, the Shanghai Municipal Housing Administration responded to the petition on the Shanghai petition platform, stating that the headquarters of Eggshell Company is in Beijing, and the Beijing Municipal Government is taking the lead in coordinating the crisis resolution plan. In view of the difficulties in the operation of the eggshell company, the company is actively helping itself. At present, the problem of tight cash flow is more prominent. There are indeed problems such as delayed payment of funds and the inability of many services. It will take time for a full recovery.

The Shanghai Municipal Housing Management Bureau stated, “We have interviewed companies and asked them to properly handle conflicts and disputes. At the same time, we are also in communication with Eggshell Company every day and pay close attention to the company’s dynamics.” In addition, the reply indicated that it is about surrendering the lease. For subsequent loan credit issues, tenants can search for the public account “WeBank Rental Consumer Loan” on WeChat and follow the procedures to apply for “Credit Protection”. According to the principle of contract relativity, if the tenant has evidence that the tenant is still within the contract period and has paid rent to the long-term rental apartment enterprise, the landlord shall not interrupt, influence, or drive the tenant by cutting off water, electricity, or changing the door lock . In the case of being driven by the landlord, you should present the relevant contract and payment voucher to negotiate with the landlord whether you can take a step back and make a smooth transition. If the negotiation fails, you can seek help through legal channels such as reporting to the public security organs or applying to the street for mediation, or through legal channels to protect your legitimate rights and interests.

What happened to the long-term apartment?

This is not the first time a long-term rental apartment has experienced a thunderstorm.

Recently, following the bankruptcy and runaway of many parents’ apartment rental agencies, Eggshell Apartments, regarded as a “head enterprise”, broke out about defaulting on supplier accounts, landlord’s rent and tenants being cut off from water and electricity. The company was once known as the second largest long-term rental apartment in China.

The news that made the market a little relieved was that, almost at the same time as the eggshell thunderstorm, Ziruo announced the strategic acquisition of Beike Youth Boutique Apartments on November 30. After the merger is completed, Ziru will operate more than 50 centralized apartment projects in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Nanjing and other cities. In this regard, real estate analyst Yan Yuejin believes that such mergers and acquisitions have become a dawn in the cooling wave of long-term rental apartments this year, indicating that there are still outstanding companies in long-term rental apartments, and similar acquisitions also indicate that the pace of long-term rental apartment development is still not stagnating.

 

However, a single M&A event cannot completely calm the market sentiment, nor can it solve the problems of “renters” involved in rights protection and the development dilemma of long-term rental apartments. Most market analysts said that most long-term rental apartments in the current market have capital turnover problems, and in the long run, the lack of a sustainable profit model is the most fundamental problem.

“From 2015 to 2018, long-term rental apartments developed rapidly under the encouragement of policies and the support of capital, and now they have entered a period of consolidation. However, the industry once imitated the Internet model’s “only fast but not broken”, and there is nothing in the leasing business itself. Under the sturdy situation, we will hold high, hoping to solve the profit problem through fast listing. This is the problem of many long-term rental apartments.” Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, told a reporter from the Financial Times.

And Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Property, said in an interview with our reporter that most of the so-called long-term rental apartments in the market today are fake long-term rental apartments. The two main characteristics of real second landlords are earning rent differentials and embezzling funds. “Long income and short payment” is the biggest feature of this type of enterprise. He emphasized: “The long-term rental apartment we need is by no means such a second-landlord agency.”

Where is the long-term rental apartment?

With the continuous thunderstorms in institutions in the past two years, problems have already emerged. However, there is no clear solution yet. Where is the road for long-term apartment rental?

 

For the stock companies that have entered the market, it is very important to refrain from the impulse to expand blindly and maintain stable operations. In Li Yujia’s view, most of the apartments that have problems are Internet and entrepreneurial companies, eager for success. Since long-term rental apartments often require a large amount of capital investment in the early stage, once there is a blind impulse to develop quickly and expand the scale, it is easy to encounter a capital chain crisis. He said: “The brand expansion of long-term rental apartment construction promoted by traditional developers is slow, and it is still in the stage of model exploration. It is relatively stable. And companies like Ziru have been deeply involved in the housing leasing field for a long time and have a relatively thorough business understanding. A big advantage.”

The reporter found that the above-mentioned stable enterprises have made some voluntary contraction “structural adjustments” in 2020 when integrating data from multiple sources. Under the impact of the epidemic, changes in the market situation may be the main reason. However, this “shrinkage” does not mean business weakness. Taking Vanke Park Residence as an example, the 2020 mid-year report disclosed that although Park Residence’s urban expansion strategy has contracted in the first half of 2020, from 35 cities in mid-2019 to 33 cities, it has maintained a relatively high occupancy rate. However, in terms of the number of new houses and rental income, BoYu ranks high among the long-term rental companies in the real estate industry. Moreover, the monitoring data of Crane’s rental and sales show that in the first half of 2020, the occupancy rate of Vanke Park Residence’s projects more than 6 months in operation has climbed to 93.7%.

The call to strengthen supervision is also very strong. “Rental loans and other products must be banned,” Zhang Dawei said. The biggest problem with long-term rental apartments is not the increase in rents, but the “funding pool” brought about by financialization. The current long-term rental apartments are no longer a leasing company, but One “financial enterprise”. He pointed out that long-term apartment rental is a term arbitrage game with time as the core element: decoration and sub-leasing are actually just supplements to the capital pool, and products such as “rental loans” transfer the homeowners’ expected rent through platform projects. Under the name of the company, the actual controller can be used, which brings market risks.

In addition to the aforementioned risk prevention policies, it is more important to find a sustainable development path. “During the market cultivation period, without government funding subsidies or policy encouragement, this market is difficult to grow. With the economy stable and demand stable, the rent price increase in the past few years has obviously started to slow down, and some areas even have rent reduction This has a great impact on second-landlord-type rental apartments, because the rent price of the sub-leasing properties of the owner is locked, and under the expectation of stable rent in the future, it is very difficult to make profit.” Zhang Dawei said.

Li Yujia also agreed with this view. “Currently, the cost of acquiring housing is too high, and it is difficult to sustain the long-term rental apartment model of “earning the price difference”.” He said that in the future, housing can be reduced through the use of existing commercial office leasing and the promotion of collective land to build rental housing. Source cost. In addition, he added that the stability of the rental market also depends on the resolute implementation of the policy of “no speculation in housing”.

The modernization process of China’s payment system

On November 27, 2020, on the occasion of its fifth anniversary, the Digital Finance Research Center of Peking University held a series of seminars on “Digital Finance Innovation and the New Pattern of Economic Development”. Zhou Xiaochuan, President of the Chinese Finance Society and former President of the People’s Bank of China Attend and share in-depth insights on the frontier and core issues of digital finance.

seminars

Conference photo: Zhou Xiaochuan, Hyun Song Shin, Huang Yiping, Stephen G. Cecchetti, Leonardo Gambacorta, Xiong Wei, Wei Shangjin, He Dong, Shen Yan Conference photo: Zhou Xiaochuan, Hyun Song Shin, Huang Yiping, Stephen G. Cecchetti, Leonardo Gambacorta, Xiong Wei, Wei Shangjin, He Dong, Shen Yan
In the case of the official launch of the dual-cycle strategic deployment in China and the urgent need for innovation-driven development, the imbalance and inadequacy of the original financial system in supporting the real economy has become more prominent. Facing the transformation of the old and new economies, how can the original financial system better support the real economy and innovative economy? How to supervise and guide the emerging digital finance? How to deal with the new technology and new trend of digital currency?

Zhou Xiaochuan’s sharing mainly focused on the two major issues of DC/EP (Digital Currency Electronic Payment) and e-CNY.

He first briefly reviewed the modernization process of China’s payment system.

Before 2012, third-party payment, especially third-party payment using digital and network technologies, had developed, but there was a lack of management and coordination entities. The discussion asked the People’s Bank of China to manage it, so it began to issue third-party payment licenses, and the first license was issued to Alipay.

In 2014, the People’s Bank of China began to establish a digital currency project team. The project implementation plan did not have a clear direction, which included both blockchain technology and other possibilities.

In 2016, the People’s Bank of China established the Digital Currency Research Institute, borrowing the institutional establishment of the Banknote Printing Research Institute, which also shows that the design and research work of the next generation of banknotes has ceased since then.

In 2017, the People’s Bank of China began to develop digital RMB. At that time, I realized that we must not mix the digital RMB DC/EP that belongs to the payment system with digital asset transactions. Therefore, in 2017, the People’s Bank of China stopped ICO (Initial Coin Offering, named after IPO) and domestic transactions of Bitcoin.

In 2019, the People’s Bank of China announced the start of a pilot program and a closed test.

In 2020, we will start to promote the internal closed pilot test of the “four places and one scene” in Shenzhen, Suzhou, Xiong’an, Chengdu, and the future Winter Olympics scene. The population of the four pilot cities is 13.4 million in Shenzhen, 10.75 million in Suzhou, 1.05 million in Xiong’an, and 16.5 million in Chengdu. In terms of size, they are all larger than those of other European countries.

Zhou Xiaochuan said that from a conceptual point of view, DC/EP is a two-tier R&D and pilot project plan, not a payment product. Of course, there may be people who have different understandings, and this is fine, because it is normal to have different understandings of new things in technological innovation. The DC/EP project plan may include several payment products that can be tried and promoted. These products were finally named e-CNY, or digital RMB.

In the two-tier system of DC/EP, the People’s Bank of China is on the first layer, and on the second layer there are commercial banks, telecom operators, and Internet payment platforms. They can cooperate or unite, depending on their understanding of payment products and Understanding of the technical framework.

In addition, there are many concepts and scientific research organization content that need to be clarified, such as where should R&D and pilot projects be directed? With so many participants participating, how to divide the work? Especially after entering the pilot and promotion stages, what are the main responsibilities? If there is a risk in the design, how to control the risk? These are issues worthy of serious discussion.