Since 2019, the overall real estate policy has adhered to the basic regulation policy of “no speculation in housing and housing”, which has demonstrated a high degree of policy coordination from the central to the local level, from demand management to supply management. The Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee held on July 30, 2019 proposed that “real estate should not be used as a short-term means of stimulating the economy”, which fully released a clear signal of my country’s unwavering adherence to real estate regulation. Local governments have followed up in a timely manner in accordance with changes in the situation, implemented policies for each city, and implemented one policy per city to ensure the smooth operation of the market and increase the pertinence of policies. Some cities have moved from city to city to district, and implemented policies according to the situation to ensure the stable operation of the real estate market.
Entering 2020, affected by the black swan of the epidemic, the real estate market transactions in the first quarter were cold. Following the effective control of the epidemic, the social economy gradually stabilized in the second quarter, and the property market gradually stabilized. In the first half of 2020, the national commercial housing sales and sales area were 6.69 trillion yuan and 694 million square meters, respectively. Affected by the epidemic, both of them declined by different degrees compared with the same period in 2019, down 5.4% and 8.4% year-on-year, but 1 The decline in June was 5.2 percentage points narrower than that from January to May, and the real estate market gradually recovered. Among all types of properties, residential sales fell by 2.8%, office building sales fell by 28.0%, and commercial business housing sales fell by 25.5%. The office market was greatly affected by the epidemic, and the residential market as a whole was not affected too much. influences.
From the perspective of each region, in the first half of 2020, the sales area of commercial housing in the eastern region was 285.11 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%, and the rate of decrease was 4.5 percentage points lower than that in the first five months; sales of 3,711.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.6%, the rate of decrease was closed Narrow by 6.1 percentage points. The sales area of commercial housing in the central region was 184.5 million square meters, down 14.1%, and the rate of decline narrowed by 3.2 percentage points; sales of 1,314.7 billion yuan, down 14.4%, and the rate of decrease narrowed by 4.1 percentage points. The sales area of commercial housing in the western region was 199.08 million square meters, down 5.6%, and the rate of decline narrowed by 3.7 percentage points; sales of 1,448.4 billion yuan, down 4.6%, and the rate of decrease narrowed by 4.4 percentage points. The sales area of commercial housing in Northeast China was 25.34 million square meters, down 17.3%, and the rate of decline narrowed by 5.1 percentage points; sales of 214.4 billion yuan, down 12.5%, and the rate of decrease narrowed by 7.0 percentage points. On the whole, different regions are affected by the epidemic in different degrees, and their impact on the market is also different. Although sales in various markets across the country declined in the first half of the year compared with the same period in 2019, with the improvement of the domestic anti-epidemic situation and the successive introduction of relevant favorable policies by local governments, the overall situation is gradually improving.
In the first half of 2020, due to the impact of the epidemic, many real estate companies were forced to lengthen their sales cycles and slow down development, but “scale” is still the mainstream thinking in the market. The sales scale of leading real estate companies continues to grow, and the industry concentration continues to increase . In the first half of 2020, Country Garden, China Evergrande, and Vanke still firmly occupy the top three sales positions of Chinese real estate companies. China Evergrande’s contracted sales amounted to 348.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.8%. Country Garden’s equity sales amounted to 266.95 billion yuan, down 5.3% year-on-year; Vanke’s contracted sales amounted to 320.48 billion yuan, down 4.0% year-on-year. Evergrande’s sales volume rose against the trend, mainly due to its first implementation of “online sales” since February and a large discount. In the first half of 2020, Evergrande proactively implemented the “price-for-quantity” strategy, and the average sales price per square meter dropped from 10,756 yuan in the same period in 2019 to 9,029 yuan, a price reduction of up to 16%. This strategy helped Evergrande realize High sales growth.
When the desperately running real estate company just recovered from the epidemic, news of regulation came again. The introduction of the “three red lines” will measure the financial status of real estate companies from the overall, long-term, and short-term dimensions, and overall control the high leverage risk of real estate companies. This will not only have a profound impact on leading real estate companies, but also on small and medium-sized real estate companies. Radical acquisition of land for expansion and high turnover may be restricted. Under the new game rules and market logic, market differentiation is deepening, and a round of reshuffle is inevitable. For the real estate industry, this aspect is to ensure the overall long-term and healthy development. On the one hand, it also drives the real estate industry from a stage of rapid growth to a stage of high-quality development.
On the whole, under the impact of the epidemic in the first half of 2020, the concentration of the real estate industry has accelerated, and the competition law of “the strong always keep strong” has not changed. Although the growth rate of head enterprises has slowed down, they pay more attention to quality growth. Actively explore and practice in areas such as strengthening customer research, enhancing product capabilities, optimizing urban layout, and enhancing product effects. I believe that in the context of market pressure, future industry competition will not only be the competition of sales scale, but will also be reflected in the company’s own capabilities, such as profitability, financing capabilities, risk control capabilities, and operational capabilities. An important component of the core competitiveness of future real estate enterprises.
In the context of the regulation of the property market and the reconstruction of social order, investors will be more cautious in investing in real estate companies. Listed real estate companies are the vane and backbone of the real estate industry. Studying the value of their equity investments will help to dig out a number of benchmark real estate companies and reduce decision-making costs. Initiated by CBN, and jointly presented by the China CBN Real Estate Enterprise Value List in collaboration with Tongce Research Institute, it targets more than 200 sample listed real estate companies in terms of profitability, capital market performance, operational capabilities, and financing capabilities. Analyze the status quo and strategic direction of the industry from the perspective of equity investment value such as solvency and enterprise scale.
In this study, we added the data of the 2019 annual report on the basis of the data of the 2020 mid-year report, and weighted it with the data of the first half of 2020. Taking into account the impact of the special factor of the epidemic in the first half of the year, the financial data and sales and land bank data released by real estate companies in the first half of 2020 may be subject to large fluctuations. In order to more fully reflect the investment value of real estate companies over a period of time, while focusing on the data for the first half of 2020, we have extended the data span and added the operating data released by the real estate companies in 2019 to supplement it. This comprehensive analysis and judgment of the value research system.