There is no distinction between good and bad capital itself, and its essence is to pursue profit. This is classically stated in Marx’s “Capital” review: once there is appropriate profit, capital will become very courageous. As long as there is a profit of 10%, it will be used everywhere; 20% will be lively; 50% will cause active risk; 100% will make people disregard all laws; 300% , It will make people not afraid of crime or even the danger of hanging their heads. If turmoil and disputes will bring profits, it will encourage them.
Therefore, Marx has long argued that capitalism has limitations and predicted that the capitalist system will inevitably lead to an economic crisis. But even if Marx saw early on that the nature of the capitalist crisis is determined by the greedy nature of capital, early practice shows that the solutions he proposed still have drawbacks—the core lies in the lack of adequate incentive mechanisms.
After China’s overall reform and opening up, the idea is to cross the river by feeling the stones, but it is also in the process of continuous absorption and optimization. Other countries in the world have given us enough experience in its development process, and of course there are also lessons. . Since its development, my country’s economic construction has achieved world-renowned achievements, and at the same time it has embarked on a unique development path, namely socialism with Chinese characteristics, emphasizing the indispensable role of the government and the market in economic and social development, and “invisible hands.” And “visible hands” should be used well.
Everything is pros and cons. The advantage of a market economy is that the market operates on its own and efficiently regulates the economy. At the same time, many people believe that the essence of the market economy is competition. Because of the existence of competition, the market will be very effective and fair. In fact, the market It is not completely effective. In the case of monopoly elements, market competition will be stifled in the cradle from the beginning, especially with the integration of modern capital-finance-monopoly, market failures in this area have changed. To make it even more prominent, if private capital is not regulated and a private capitalization monopoly is also implemented in the core element field, the fairness of distribution is ignored in the process of blindly pursuing efficiency. Pursuing the maximization of benefits with core elements will inevitably lead to a capitalist crisis. Of course, it will inevitably evolve into a social crisis in the end. Although its positive side is that it can better meet the needs of social growth, it also Cause a series of problems such as social distribution;
The advantage of the planned economy is that the government can enter the market in a timely manner when there are loopholes or problems in the market economy. Of course, the downside is that if the planned economy is over-emphasized, it will also fall into inefficiency.
No development method is necessarily perfect. There will always be problems of one kind or another. Keep moving forward while balancing the pros and cons of various methods. This is the path of China’s development. It is necessary to allow state-owned capital to gradually withdraw from non-core elements. At the same time, state-owned capital must maintain absolute control over core elements. It is necessary to allow private capital to exert its efficiency and progress, and at the same time to restrain capital to avoid the occurrence of crises caused by the blind pursuit of profit maximization by capital.
This path may seem difficult, but it is indeed an optimal attempt to integrate the latter of the two exploration paths of Western capitalism and Marxism-Leninism communism. Since 2014, Hong Kong has exposed the social turmoil and tearing brought about by excessive capital monopoly, and since 2016, the populism of the social tearing caused by the intensification of the rich and poor in the United States has prevailed before us. experiences and lessons. From China’s perspective, after 2010 or the end of the global financial crisis, China’s financial, real estate and other capital tied up the government to force the people to pay. This exploration of crossing the river by feeling the stones has gradually entered the process of preventing gray rhinos and deflating risks.
A lot of people feel that they come out for restraint only when something goes wrong. They often go back and ask why they can’t restrain earlier? The manager is not a saint, and he cannot make forward-looking judgments. Perhaps the interests of all parties are entangled, or you cannot forward and intervene before something happens;
The “don’t forget the original intention” mentioned by the new leadership team-this kind of revision actually started in 2016, from strengthening financial supervision after the stock market crash to not speculating on housing and housing, to the strengthening of anti-monopoly and policies proposed by the Politburo meeting last week. Preventing the disorderly expansion of capital reflects the determination of decision-makers in all aspects. Gray rhinos are not just real estate that has accumulated conflicts in the past. In fact, gray rhinos have fully surfaced from real estate, finance and Internet monopoly.
The first step to control risk is to control leverage, pinch the source and persist in deleveraging, and then gradually dismantle the bombs. This is the current method to resolve risks. For the gray rhinos who have kidnapped society to a certain extent, the cost of a hard landing is too high, but no measures are taken to allow the risks to continue. The lessons of Western society are a huge warning to us.
In the past, the development path that relied on real estate and land finance had its two sides. On the one hand, it did solve the source of early developing government funds, and it also accelerated the realization of the purpose of improving residents’ lives. On the other hand, it overdrafted the leverage of the residential sector and accelerated high housing prices. At the same time, local governments rely too much on land finances, which restricts the progress of the productivity of the whole society. In recent years, the path of relying on real estate to stimulate the economy has gradually changed from more advantages than disadvantages to disadvantages than advantages. Clear judgment.
From the 2016 Central Economic Work Conference’s proposal that housing should not be speculated, to Chairman Guo Shuqing’s recent statement that real estate is the biggest “gray rhino” in terms of financial risks in my country at this stage, all of which reflect the determination of decision-makers to increase real estate policy regulation. But in the face of real estate, an industry that is very important to the government, banks, and residential sectors, the only way to resolve risks can be to slowly dismantle the bombs to exchange time for space, and to alleviate social conflicts as much as possible.
Therefore, for other rising capital behemoths, we must never allow the creation of such a behemoth that kidnaps the government, financial system, and even society. This is the source of the crisis of capitalism and the greater crisis of social tearing. .
The second gray rhinoceros mentioned next is financial risk. The risks brought by the stock market crash and capital flight in 2015 are no less than the real estate bubble. From the 2017 Financial Work Conference emphasizing that financial security is an important part of national security, to preventing and resolving major risks as the first of the three major battles, we have seen financial deleveraging, financial anti-corruption, and financial private capital strengthening in recent years. Supervising the financial “barbarians”, the prevention and resolution of financial risks have gradually been carried out in an orderly manner.
The third gray rhino is Internet+, which was advocated in earlier years. In fact, there is a commonality in this. The above-mentioned financial services serve the real economy and Internet + promotes innovation. These initial intentions are good. However, if capital is expected to have an overall view and overcome self-interest, it is against The essence of capital greed. From the perspective of the development path, the early development of the Internet promoted the improvement of production efficiency, but the later development inevitably moved towards profit-seeking and monopoly.
So the official media said: “Don’t just think about a few bundles of cabbage, technological innovation is even more exciting.” This is the truest portrayal of the profit-seeking nature of capital and the government’s hope that capital can have an overall view of the situation.
Whether it is real estate finance or the current Internet oligarchs, they all have exactly the same characteristics-they will eventually become a big beast that cannot fail, kidnapping everything to maximize profits. Real estate hijacks the finances of residents, financial departments, and local governments; financial monopolies ultimately use the stability of the financial system to hijack the entire society. The 2008 financial crisis is the best example; the natural nature of the Internet “winner takes all” if it is not controlled It will also bring about monopoly. After the oligarch destroys the C-side through monopoly, it uses platform channels to monopolize the B-side. Finally, through financial capital intervention, a huge financial, data, and people’s livelihood will be bundled together. Big big beast that can’t move.
This is also the most typical feature before the capitalist crisis. The prescription of the Keynesian school was to advocate that the country adopt expansionary economic policies to promote economic growth by increasing aggregate demand, even if most of the currency will eventually flow to a small group of people, so Keynes predicted from the beginning that it can solve the current problem. But the fundamental contradiction cannot be resolved.
Twenty years ago, the reform of state-owned enterprises in the era of Premier Zhu Rongji required great courage to resolve and undertake to break the predicament of enterprises that were too large to fail. The employment of tens of millions of state-owned enterprise employees was behind it. Now it also needs great courage and courage to resolve the kidnapping of real estate, finance and Internet oligarchs.
The improvement of production efficiency and the wider application of technology to make life more convenient are what society needs, and the use of these technologies to monopolize in order to maximize benefits is a capital need. From the perspective of capital, it seems that there is nothing wrong with me, but from the perspective of social development, it is full of entanglements. This is a question of degree. Once the boundary is passed, it will do more harm than good, otherwise, the advantages outweigh the disadvantages.
The essence of finance, real estate, and Internet monopoly capital is to maximize the benefits of capital, and the final result is that capital is getting richer and richer. There is nothing wrong with being rich, but if it is not based on productivity improvement, it is based on On the basis of the debt of the next generation of the next generation, this is destructive wealth for the society. The next generation has no hope at the moment, and the social monopoly has reached the extreme, and the wealth differentiation has also reached the extreme. This is the source of the capitalist crisis. China is now aware of these problems, either because capital is heavily taxed, or it is to break this way of distribution of wealth based on the debts of others.
As a result of capital over the government and over the people, Western society has given enough experience and lessons, and China’s path must be different from it. Stopping the disorderly expansion of capital and using the “visible hands” of the government to guide capital to where it should go is also China’s “initial aspiration” different from the world.