Tagged: Bitcoin

Bitcoin soars again

Bitcoin prices soared again over the weekend, once exceeding $61000, and are now falling below $60 million.

 

On Saturday morning, local time, as the cryptocurrency hovered at the weekend high, Tesla (677.02, -6.78, -0.99%) and SpaceX CEO Elon mask posted a social media post saying, “it will soon go to the moon,” which is clearly in the popular slang of bitcoin “going to the moon.”.

 

Earlier this month, musk posted that SpaceX plans to “bring dog coins to the moon.”. His latest post on the weekend also sparked speculation that SpaceX might join Tesla and include cryptocurrency in its balance sheet.

Investing in all beings under Bitcoin

A research report issued by Citibank believes that Bitcoin is at a critical node: either it will become the mainstream digital currency adopted in international trade, or it will collapse in the wave of speculation.

Investing in all beings under Bitcoin

In the beginning of 2021, Bitcoin will earn enough eyeballs. At the beginning of January, the price rushed higher and higher, and the price rushed to above $40,000. The cumulative increase in the first seven days of the year was as high as 38%, but Bitcoin did not hold the $40,000 mark for a long time. In February, Tesla entered the game and the traditional financial giants opened their arms, which stimulated Bitcoin to rise again. However, the cold water of the US Treasury Secretary Yellen made Bitcoin plunge again. Just last week, the price of Bitcoin once stood at a record high of 58,000 U.S. dollars, and the current price has cut about 8,000 U.S. dollars (as of 7:52 on March 4th, Beijing time).

Whenever Bitcoin rides on the “roller coaster”, some people regret not getting on the car, some are fortunate to step on it accurately, and some lament that they cannot get away. After that, some people will continue to chase the myth of getting rich overnight, some will continue to follow the investment logic of Bitcoin, and some will continue to wander outside the circle. A reporter from “Daily Economic News” interviewed three individual Bitcoin investors and told about the ups and downs of their currency circle.

Image source: Photograph
“I am a gambler”

Liu Yang, 24 years old, Shanghai, media industry

I admit that I am a gambler, the kind of person who is willing to take a fight to become a motorcycle.

In 2015, I am about to graduate from high school. My mom’s friend worked in a securities company, so I urged my mom to open an account and used her account to enter the stock market. At that time, I was catching up with the military parade. I thought it would be good for military industry stocks. So I chose a few military industry stocks and caught up with the peak of 2015. I made some money and bought a new mobile phone and a pair of Air Jordan sneakers.

After the bull market in the first half of 2015, I temporarily put down the stock market. In 2018, I came into contact with Bitcoin from a friend. At that time, the price of Bitcoin was still more than $3,000. My friend said this was a bargain hunter and asked me to hold it, but I was not sure at the time.

In 2019, I entered when the price of Bitcoin reached more than 40,000 yuan. I had two coins in my hand at that time. It was sold in December of that year and earned more than 10,000 yuan.

I also participated in the latest wave of quotations. I bought it on the advice of a senior. The seniors work as real estate agencies in Shanghai, and those who do high-end real estate always hear some strange news from the rich. He told me that Bitcoin must have risen to 50,000 U.S. dollars before the Spring Festival, and later it rose to 50,000 U.S. dollars. I admire my senior.

Around January 20th of this year, I entered when Bitcoin was approaching $40,000. Because I like to gamble, I open a contract (buy call options) and never open a leverage lower than 20 times. Sometimes when you add 125 times the leverage, Bitcoin rises by 1%, and I double it by 1.25 times. They are invested in tens of thousands of tens of thousands, and sometimes I make a profit of 10,000 to 20,000.

But my margin was very low. It fell by 0.5% and forced me to liquidate the position. After several times, I lost about 20 (ten thousand) in this wave and about 80 (ten thousand) for seniors. This money was originally lent to me by my relatives for the down payment, but fortunately, he (relatives) did not need me to repay the money for the past three years.

Now I understand it. I don’t think I should do anything about Bitcoin. Winning is only a dozen or two hundred thousand. It can’t change your quality of life, but it will also affect your mentality.

I recently invested some money in A-shares, and my friend told me that this year, it can increase by up to 30%. But before I fought Bitcoin, it could rise by 30% in one day, and the leverage could rise by 200%, and it would double that day. In this way, you will have no patience, and your patience will be exhausted. For investment, it affects the mentality too much.

I originally wanted to buy a Kawasaki motorcycle when I won, and I paid the deposit, but now I don’t have the balance on hand. In March, I received a private job of 50,000 yuan, and I plan to make more money. I still have to buy a motorcycle.

“I don’t understand Bitcoin”

Happy Ears, 32 years old, Beijing, Internet Product Manager

I heard that Bitcoin is considered very early, probably in 2011, because I am a major in engineering and have always been concerned about things in the technology industry. But at that time there was no money and no investment was made.

In 2015, I started working as a product manager for an Internet securities company, and since 2017, I started to invest in value with my heart. The earnings of US stocks and Hong Kong stocks have been pretty good in the past few years, but I have never understood Bitcoin. But it was also at that time, just as Bitcoin rose sharply in the last wave, and I really started to enter the currency circle. At that time, all blockchains were very hot, and a large number of weird currencies began to conduct ICO (Initial Coin Offering).

At that time, I was still working in an Internet securities company, and I paid a lot of attention to news in this regard. I bought some ETH (Ethereum), and then used ETH to invest in a coin that I was planning to issue, about 10,000 yuan.

At that time, the coin I bought hadn’t started to go on the market, and the other party said that he could choose to keep the coin in his hand or return the ETH that I had invested. I chose to return it. When I returned it to me, ETH had increased by 5 times. But after a month, the coin I invested in was issued overseas, and it went up 100 times as soon as it went public.

Later, I participated in the issuance of some coins and made some money. Wasn’t it because ICOs were very hot at the time, and there was a huge demand for ETH. I changed all the digital currencies on my hand to ETH, but in 2018 they all changed to Bitcoin. Because I think that if you compare precious metals, Bitcoin should be gold, and other coins may be similar to silver.

It was also during that time that I started to make more value investments in US stocks and Hong Kong stocks. It was Buffett’s way of looking at company performance. What I thought at the time was that I would not invest heavily in digital currency anyway. If I wanted to buy it, I would have to spend a lot of time on it, so I gradually became less involved.

The most recent time was around May of last year. At that time, the production of Bitcoin was halved. When the price was about US$5,000 to US$10,000, I bought some more bitcoins. At that time, it was mainly based on two considerations. First, I wanted to speculate, because every time Bitcoin production was halved, it would usher in a wave of rise; second, the global epidemic was very serious at the time, and I considered Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset like gold. To use. I bought it relatively heavily and invested hundreds of thousands.

When the price rose to the range of US$15,000 to US$20,000, I liquidated all the bitcoins, and made a cumulative profit of about 50%. Later, I didn’t touch the digital currency again. I think my advantage in investment lies in the stocks. It is relatively safe to buy, and the digital currency is still incomprehensible.

I am also following the market news feeds of Bitcoin every day, knowing that it has risen sharply, but I don’t regret it either. Some friends around me have made a lot of money. They told me some of the logic behind it, but I don’t think anyone’s logic is always valid. Anyway, this matter is not within my scope of cognition. If the experience and logical reasoning methods I have now allowed me to go back and make another choice, I might still be cleared up early.

In the future, if there is a suitable price, I will still hold a small amount of Bitcoin when I have spare money. I think people who are serious about digital currency still have beliefs and have a set of cognitive systems and logic behind them. I don’t have them, so I am more conservative in this regard.

“Those who get rich overnight often also burst their positions overnight”

Authentic Rabbit Head 31 years old, Shanghai, a major Internet company

I first invested in Bitcoin in 2013. I bought 20 Bitcoins and 600 RMB each through Taobao.

At that time, I was doing industry research work, and I saw a Bitcoin science article on an electronic product forum. 99% of the responses below were mocking and questioning. But I read it carefully and checked a lot of related materials, including the white paper by Satoshi Nakamoto (the founder of Bitcoin). After reading it, I think this is a very, very high potential industry.

In 2015, I started to open a position in Bitcoin again. At that time, the price was a few thousand yuan. In 2017, when Bitcoin rose to 20,000 yuan, I completed the last time to cover the position. I now have three-digit bitcoins in my hand, and none of them have been realized because my psychological price of bitcoins is $200,000. However, when the unit price rises to 100,000 U.S. dollars, I will reassess the situation to see if I will sell some of it.

In 2016, my parents gave money to buy a house. At that time, it was actually a good time to buy Bitcoin. I originally wanted to invest all of it in buying Bitcoin, but then I still felt that I had to separate the money for life and investment. Investing is a marathon. There is no need to run too fast at the beginning and discard many things that shouldn’t be discarded.

There are many reasons to look at Bitcoin, including intricate analysis, but one of my conclusions is that Bitcoin may one day appear on the asset quotation card of the Lujiazui Ring Road, becoming a regular and relatively stable block. Investment products.

This wave of gains from January to February this year is indeed abnormal, because it has broken through the largest monthly gain in history. I think this is a bad phenomenon. During the Spring Festival, I actually expect Bitcoin to fall by a wave, so that by the end of the year, it may be able to rise to 50,000 to 100,000 US dollars. However, during the Spring Festival, Bitcoin was stimulated by Tesla’s entry, with a single-day increase of 20%. I don’t actually understand the latter situation, but I think this is a bad result, because it will take longer for the callback now.

Regarding the recent wave of ups and downs, my mentality is very calm. I also know some people in the currency circle who bought Rolls Royce after making money, but they disappeared after a bear market. In fact, there are many such things, and those who get rich overnight often burst their positions overnight.

For investment, you must be completely self-driven to explore and research. But most people prefer to be a party. I assembled my own computer to mine last year. I didn’t want to mine as much, but wanted to figure out the process. On the other hand, you cannot be a greedy person by yourself and cannot gamble.

(Note: The characters above are all pseudonyms.)

Expert talk | “For ordinary people, investing in Bitcoin means high risk”

“I have never recommended ordinary investors to invest in Bitcoin, because ordinary investors do not have the ability to bear such a high risk factor.” Jiang Han, a senior researcher at Pangu think tank, told the reporter of “Daily Economic News”. Jiang Han agreed with Bill Gates’ previous comments: Musk can invest in Bitcoin because he has enough funds to invest in Bitcoin and bear the corresponding risks, but for ordinary people, investing in Bitcoin means huge risks. In addition, in high-risk situations, short-term operations are also selected through increased leverage, which will cause serious risk amplification and may lead to liquidation.

In Jiang Han’s view, although Bitcoin is a digital asset with a certain value, the recent surge may be an irrational exuberance. Entered a state of almost madness”. Due to the lack of sufficient basic support for the big rally, it is normal for a sharp correction to occur later, and the two are closely related.

Kweichow Moutai VS Bitcoin, who is more worth investing in?

As of March 2nd, Kweichow Moutai pulled back sharply and fell to 2058 yuan. Everyone shivered, and they talked about Kweichow Moutai’s 2,000 yuan might not be guaranteed.

Kweichow Moutai VS Bitcoin

On the other side of the ocean, the United States prints banknotes indefinitely. Bitcoin once pointed to 57,000 U.S. dollars. Since then, it has fallen sharply by about 10,000 U.S. dollars from the high point.

Musk takes the hard core goods, and the goddess ARK is bullish on Bitcoin to 400,000 US dollars.

Charlie Munger stepped on Bitcoin again, believing that Bitcoin is an artificial gold substitute and too unstable to become the world’s medium of exchange.

As the two most dazzling targets in the investment field, who is more worthy of investment in the next 20 years?

Kweichow Moutai: Gradually approaching the margin of safety, the annualized rate of return in the next 20 years is about 10%+

As for how good Maotai is, I won’t repeat it in this article. You can refer to the article: If you invest in stocks and earn less than 30% a year, why not buy Kweichow Moutai?

The Kweichow Moutai performance forecast shows that in 2020, Kweichow Moutai will have a profit of 45.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10%, and revenue will also increase by 10%.

But from 2020 to before the Spring Festival, Moutai’s stock price rose sharply by 134%. Although the certainty of Moutai’s future performance cannot be shaken, the rapid rise in stock prices has greatly overdrawn the future upside space, and the post-holiday callback is a return to normal valuation.

After a sharp correction of over 20%, does Kweichow Moutai already possess investment value?

Kweichow Moutai VS Bitcoin
Source: Essence Securities
In the latest research report of Essence Securities, Kweichow Moutai’s net profit of 54.85 billion in 2021 is expected, and its net profit is expected to be 66.71 billion in 2022. Zhongtai Securities has given Maotai’s net profit of 55.27 billion in 2021 and 645.9 in 2022. Billion in net profit expectations.

Based on Kweichow Moutai’s 55 billion net profit in 2021, the current market value is 2.59 trillion, which is equivalent to 47.1 times the price-earnings ratio.

In 2022, Kweichow Moutai’s net profit is calculated at 65 billion, and the current market value is 2.59 trillion, which is equivalent to 39.8 times the price-earnings ratio.

Is this price-earnings ratio still high?

Source: Wind
From the perspective of historical price-earnings ratio (TTM), the price-earnings ratio of 40 times was once the ceiling of Kweichow Moutai’s valuation. After 2020, as the value of Moutai becomes more and more recognized by the market, this valuation ceiling is pierced, and Moutai, which has a price-earnings ratio of 40 times, is gone forever.

Want to buy Kweichow Moutai at a valuation below 40 times price-earnings ratio? The 40 times price-earnings ratio can be regarded as Moutai’s margin of safety.

Buffett once said: “Choose the best company and be a friend of time”, we make a simple calculation of the long-term profit of Kweichow Moutai:

Assuming its profit growth rate of 15% in the next 20 years, the net profit in 2040 will reach 744.7 billion yuan.

Calculated by 25 times the PE, the future market value of Moutai will reach 186169 billion. If calculated on the basis of the current market value of 2.59 trillion, the market value of Moutai will increase by 7.19 times in 20 years.

calculation process:

1
7.19 times in 20 years, are you satisfied? It sounds good, but in fact the annualized income is “only” 10.37%.

Kweichow Moutai’s family base is too strong, even so, the long-term yield is still much stronger than buying money funds. However, a long-term expected return of just over 10% may not be satisfactory to “greedy” investors.

Bitcoin: It entered everyone’s field of vision in 2013, and its revenue has been slightly better than Moutai since 2014!

 

Source: Baidu
Judging from Baidu’s search index and media index, Bitcoin entered everyone’s field of vision at the end of 2013. As for the era when one dollar can buy several Bitcoins, statistics are not taken, and there is obviously a survivor bias.

2013 was the craziest year for Bitcoin. From the opening price of $13.5 at the beginning of the year to the closing price of $754 on the last trading day at the end of the year, an increase of nearly 56 times throughout the year, “a year of wealth” became possible and Bitcoin Enter everyone’s vision.

During the Spring Festival from 2014 to 2020, based on the closing price of US$47,228 on February 13, 2021, Bitcoin achieved an increase of 62.63 times. During the same period, Kweichow Moutai rose 60.97 times, which was almost the same as Bitcoin’s increase.

In the next 20 years, which of Kweichow Moutai or Bitcoin is more worthy of investment?

The above calculation has been simple, in the next 20 years, Kweichow Moutai will rise by about 71.9 times, with an annualized income of about 10.37%.

There are different opinions on the logic of bullish and bearish Bitcoin. I will not make an evaluation here, just make an assumption: if the price of Bitcoin rises to 400,000 US dollars as ARK goddess said in the next 20 years, the current price is calculated at 50,000 US dollars. The currency will rise 8 times, and the annualized rate of return will reach 10.96%, which will be almost the same as that of Kweichow Moutai. If calculated according to 21 million, the total market value of Bitcoin will reach 8.4 trillion US dollars.

calculation process:

1
The total GDP of the United States in 2019 was 21.4 trillion U.S. dollars. In 2020, affected by the epidemic, the total GDP will decline. Assuming a constant GDP growth rate of 2% from 2020 to 2040, the US GDP will reach 32.4 trillion US dollars in 2040. By then, the market value of Bitcoin will account for 25.9% of US GDP.

When Musk began to call the wind and rain in the currency circle, when the tide of US monetary easing will eventually fade, when Moutai is still hard to find, the people complain. 20 years later, who will point out Maotai and Bitcoin?

Bitcoin good news is here

Citigroup believes that with the pursuit of digital currencies such as Bitcoin by retail investors and institutional investors, there has been a trend that is good for Bitcoin but not good for gold, and this trend is becoming more and more difficult to ignore. Citi also pointed out that for digital currencies, changes in regulatory policies are the biggest risk. If regulations are tightened, some speculative funds will return to the gold market.
Goldman Sachs has restarted the cryptocurrency trading desk and will provide customers with bitcoin futures and non-deliverable forward contracts (NDF) trading services starting next week.

trading services starting next week.

According to media reports, this team belongs to the bank’s global marketing department. This department was established by Goldman Sachs in response to the rapidly growing activities in the digital asset sector. At present, the bank is still exploring the possibility of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, and has issued an information request to explore the custody of digital assets.

At present, institutions including CME Group, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and Fidelity have begun to provide products and services on cryptocurrencies.

Jurrien Timmer, head of global macro business at Fidelity, said that Bitcoin has convincing supply and demand dynamics. He believes that the current Bitcoin asset value is only 900 billion U.S. dollars, and given the 11 trillion U.S. dollar asset value of gold and the global total financial assets of 160 trillion U.S. dollars, there is still a lot of room for the cryptocurrency to rise.

Timmer said: “If Bitcoin is a legitimate store of value, scarcer than gold, and has the potential for index demand dynamics, is it worth considering including it in the portfolio now?” He said the question may no longer be “yes.” , But “how much”.

Citi previously released a report of more than 100 pages, stating that as companies such as Tesla and PayPal are enthusiastic about Bitcoin, and central banks are also exploring the issuance of their own digital currencies, Bitcoin is currently at a “critical level”. “Point” may one day become the currency of choice for international trade.

Citigroup believes that with the pursuit of digital currencies such as Bitcoin by retail investors and institutional investors, there has been a trend that is good for Bitcoin but not good for gold, and this trend is becoming more and more difficult to ignore. Citi also pointed out that for digital currencies, changes in regulatory policies are the biggest risk. If regulations are tightened, some speculative funds will return to the gold market.

Goldman Sachs first set up a cryptocurrency trading department as early as 2018, but at that time, the price of Bitcoin was falling from a record high, weakening investors’ interest in digital currencies.

Cryptocurrency was previously avoided by elite companies such as Goldman Sachs, but it is now gaining trust, and other banks and financial institutions also have related business plans. New York Mellon said in mid-February that it would hold, transfer and issue digital currencies, and said this is the first time a global bank has provided such services to customers. MasterCard also stated that it will allow cardholders to conduct transactions in cryptocurrency on its network. The company said last month that it is “actively participating” in the digital currency program of global central banks.

As Goldman Sachs restarted its cryptocurrency trading department, digital assets have rocketed in the past few months. The price of Bitcoin has risen more than five times in the past year, and investors such as Paul Tudor Jones, Stan Druckenmiller, and Elon Musk are racing to join the game. Musk’s Tesla Company announced in February that it had purchased $1.5 billion in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin fell to $43,000 overnight

Bitcoin once fell to about 43,000 US dollars, a three-week low, a 26% drop from the high of 58,000 US dollars set on February 21, and entered a technical bear market. At the same time, this does not mean that Bitcoin’s gains this year have narrowed to 50%.

Bitcoin fell to $43,000 overnight Bitcoin fell to $43,000 overnight
Not only Bitcoin, but the digital currency market fell across the board. Among them, Ether fell to a low of around $1,300 on Sunday.

Bloomberg said that the disappearing premium shows that investors are looking for exit opportunities. And Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at BI, said that this represents investor panic and some investors’ profit-making departure.

Yahoo Finance quoted cryptocurrency trading company QCP Capital as saying that in the medium term, the problem for Bitcoin now is whether holders can withstand further declines, and when the decline will cause the bulls to feel pain.

Bitcoin’s soaring price makes it difficult to get one card

At present, the most popular commodity of Shenzhen Huaqiangbei is graphics card, which is used to assemble digital currency mining equipment.

 

In the SEG electronic market, a landmark building in Huaqiangbei, the counters selling computer accessories and repairing computers will not display the latest series of graphics cards. Transactions are often hidden in the dialogue between the counter owner and customers.

 

“3080, any?”

 

“How many do you want? More is not necessarily more. ”

 

Such conversations are repeated every day in the SEG electronics market. Since July last year, the price of bitcoin has been rising fiercely. On January 8 this year, bitcoin broke the $40000 mark, driving the price of digital currency to rise as a whole. With the rise of mining tide, new miners vie for admission, while old miners are busy adding equipment.

 

The RTX 30 series graphics card with high computing power and friendly price is the hot spot in the eyes of miners. Nicehash, the world’s largest cryptocurrency computing power platform website, has selected the mining graphics card with the best performance. The top two are 30 series graphics cards – 3090 and 3080 models. Bitcoin rose, miners scavenging crazier, graphics card manufacturers limited capacity, there are few spot on the market.

 

Counter owners are not in a hurry to sell to visitors. Instead, they first give them a “preventive injection” and “if there is, it depends on whether the price is acceptable”.

 

“People come to ask every day,” said Chen Liang (a pseudonym), who sells graphics cards in SEG electronics market. He said that the graphics card is very out of stock, we have to look for one. For example, if a customer wants five graphics cards, it will take two or three days to find such a quantity, “it’s not necessary to get so many (goods)”.

 

Bitcoin is limited in supply, and the price of graphics card with limited capacity fluctuates with the price of bitcoin. This time, it’s hard for businesses to predict how long the graphics card thermal energy brought by bitcoin will last. They even don’t know whether they are happy or worried: if they don’t have the goods, they have no price in the market; if they don’t have the goods to hoard, they have less profit space.

 

One price a day

Bitcoin's soaring price makes it difficult to get one card

“A lot of people buy graphics cards for mining.” In an interview with time weekly, Chen Liang said that it’s easy to judge whether customers buy graphics cards to mine. Those who ask businesses how many graphics cards they can sell are usually miners.

 

Graphics card was originally just a common computer accessory, which is one of the important hardware needed for computer graphics design and game entertainment. Mining is the ultimate pursuit of computing power behavior, with the least time, limited hardware to squeeze out the highest computing power, in order to get higher returns. The large amount of computing required for mining is just the strength of GPU. GPU mining is much stronger than CPU mining. Therefore, a large number of graphics cards flow to the mining market, causing an unprecedented shortage of global graphics card supply.

 

On January 2, the price of bitcoin broke through $30000, and six days later, it broke through $40000. Then, bitcoin plummeted, causing a wide range of burst positions, followed by frequent ups and downs, and the lowest price of bitcoin fell to $28845. As of 12:00 on January 25, the price of bitcoin was US $33588, while the price of RMB was RMB 217540. Since 2021, in less than a month, bitcoin has risen by nearly 14%, which has also pushed up the price of other digital currencies. For example, the price of ether currency has risen sharply from US $133 at the beginning of last year to US $1433 on January 25.

 

The sharp rise of currency price has heated up Huaqiang North graphics card market.

 

“As soon as the currency price goes up, the graphics card goes up.” Video card business Liu Wei (pseudonym) so summed up. He remembers that in 2017, bitcoin soared from $1003 to $20000, making it famous. At that time, a card (commonly known as the graphics card launched by AMD) was very popular. The demand for mining increased sharply, and the price of mining card (graphics card specially used for mining) soared. “A card of 1000 yuan, when it reached the highest, was more than 4000 yuan.”

 

The current popular mining tool is RTX 30 series graphics card. Nice hash shows that the computing power of 3090 and 3080 graphics cards is 106mh / s and 97mh / s respectively. According to the bitcoin price of that day (January 25), after deducting the electricity charge of 0.617 yuan per kilowatt hour, the monthly income can reach 1515.10 yuan and 1249.73 yuan respectively.

 

The mine card market thus revived. The 3080 graphics card, which is officially priced at 5499 yuan, has soared by more than 6000 yuan. In the recent week, it has risen from 9000 yuan to 12000 yuan. The 3090 graphics card, which is officially priced at 11999 yuan, has a market price of 13900 yuan.

 

At this price, even if the price of graphics card soars, bitcoin can earn back the cost in 10 months as long as it stays above $30000.

 

There is even a phenomenon of “one price a day” in the market. When the reporter of time weekly inquired about the price from the business as the buyer of the video card, the other side said helplessly: “the market is unstable now. For example, if I tell you the price today, it may be another price tomorrow. The price is not sure.”

 

The net profit is 600 yuan

 

“No one knows what they used to say about bitcoin. Now we’re all talking about dinner! ” While assembling the main computer, Liu Wei talks to customers. “I can’t afford bitcoin. It’s so expensive.” He joked that bitcoin, which costs more than 200000 yuan, is a game played by rich people.

 

The entry threshold of graphics card is far lower than that of bitcoin. When the production capacity is limited and the stock is scarce, you can earn money by buying it.

 

“You can make money in a situation like this. How much do you make? Anyway, it’s all about the price. It’s that simple. ” Liu Wei said frankly that if he could get a large number of goods at the official price earlier, he would have made a lot of money now. “One can earn 2000 yuan.”

 

Graphics card spot shortage, of course, is unable to get goods at the official price. The price difference between the purchase price and the market price is the profit margin of the business. But when is the best purchase time, and whether to maintain the supply, is also the biggest problem of these businesses.

 

Chen Liang wants to have a blog. In December last year, he hoarded three 3070 graphics cards, and the purchase price was as high as 5300 yuan per card. Fortunately, the market is awesome. The price of money has risen all the way. He can make 600 yuan for every sell. “Under normal circumstances (not affected by the soaring price of bitcoin), you can make a difference of 300 yuan, but now the profit is at least doubled.”

 

“Whoever has money will get the goods.” Chen Liang said that because the goods are very difficult to find, customers who need to take more than 10 pieces at a time will definitely raise the price, “I will only accept the order if I can make 1000 yuan each.”

 

There are opportunities to make money everywhere in the mine card market. “Now buy (graphics card) and put it back for a few days. When the graphics card rises to 6000 yuan, you can take it and sell it. You can make money.” Liu Wei said the secret of speculation, “it depends on whether you dare to gamble. Investment is risky.”

 

Miners and mine owners prefer to go to the Expo once.

 

The number of bitcoins is limited. In this game, the faster one can solve the computing problem, the more he can pocket the remaining bitcoins. To improve the cracking speed, the quantity is not the quality. Under this operating rule, mining has become a game of computing power of equipment. The more high computing power equipment is put into use, the greater the win.

 

Usually, miners use 6-8 graphics cards to form a mining equipment. Starting with the current market price, the cost of 3070 graphics card for a mining equipment is 43200-57600 yuan.

 

“Miners can’t buy 30 series graphics cards, so can old ones.” Liu Wei said that high-end graphics cards such as series 30 are out of stock, so the mine owners focus on the old models of graphics cards, and they can all mine, but the calculation power is different. “For example, the 1660 Series graphics cards originally cost 1400-1500 yuan, but now they all cost 2500-2600 yuan.”

 

The graphics card is hot and the shop is cold

 

The price of currency is crazy, so are the miners and mine owners, and so do the video card merchants, but it’s not easy to hoard and speculate.

 

The first is whether you can get 30 series graphics card.

 

“If you want to stock up, you have to see how much money you have.” Chen Liang said that due to the small amount of goods taken, businesses in SEG electronic market seldom directly connect with manufacturers, and generally take goods from dealers. “Dealers don’t have so many goods. It’s lucky to get them.” Chen Liang said that if you can get the new graphics card, in addition to meeting the mining demand, you can also use it to assemble computers in the store and drive the sales of other computer accessories.

 

Even if the dealer has the goods, the graphics card business still has to abide by the unwritten rule: take a 30 series graphics card, still have to distribute the goods.

 

“We have to take 10-20 low-end graphics cards. We pay for them in advance.” Chen Liang said that this has become a big threshold for businesses to store goods. The price of a low-end graphics card is about 280 yuan. In other words, every time you take a 30 series graphics card, you have to add an additional purchase expense of 2800-5600 yuan. What’s more worrying is that these low-end graphics cards basically have no demand in the market, “it’s hard to sell.”

 

Graphics card prices continue to catch up, most businesses are conservative hoarding.

 

“Just a little bit.” Liu Wei said that there are not many stores that actually stock up, “now the price is so high, who will stock up? If the price goes down, from 5000 yuan to 4000 yuan, one card will lose 1000 yuan and can’t afford to be hurt. ”

 

Graphics card is hot, but Huaqiangbei’s shop is cold.

 

Chen Liang’s shop had few customers in the afternoon. “Every day people ask (graphics card), but when they hear about the price, they don’t want it. The price is high.” Since the store sold 3070 graphics cards, Chen Liang has sold more than 70. “When the graphics card is not so expensive, the business is better.”

 

Huaqiangbei business seems to have been gambling: how long will the situation of hard to get a card last, and what price is suitable to start hoarding.

 

Graphics card supply is the key. In December last year, NVIDIA said that the shortage of wafers, silicon chips and other components had led to a tight supply of graphics cards. It was trying to expand the supply, and it would take several months for a thorough improvement. In January this year, NVIDIA disclosed that if the mining demand further increased, it would restart the CMP mining special graphics card product line to produce mining special graphics card.

 

“It won’t come down years ago.” In the SEG electronic market, many businesses make such judgments. Liu Wei believes that whether the graphics card can be reduced depends on the trend of currency price, but no one can say for sure. “Even if the currency price falls in a short period of time, the impact will not be too great.”

Behind the intensive financing of housing enterprises in the first year

Spark Global Limited

At the beginning of the year 2021, real estate companies are intensively financing in the bond market. Since January, more than 30 companies have disclosed bond issuance plans, and the total scale of domestic and foreign bond issuance has reached the order of 100 billion yuan.

Although this round of bond issuance has the inertia of “snatching away” at the beginning of the year, two important backgrounds cannot be ignored.

In 2020, the “three red lines” policy for real estate financing management and the centralized management system for real estate loans in the banking industry have been introduced successively, which will limit the debt scale of real estate enterprises to a certain extent. At the same time, 2021 will be the largest year for real estate companies to mature debt.

The Shell Research Institute recently released a report that the scale of debt due in 2021 (excluding the ultra-short-term bonds to be issued in 2021) is expected to exceed 1.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 36% year-on-year, and historically break through the trillion mark.

The “three red lines” superimposed on debt repayment pressure will enable real estate companies to usher in the most tight period of cash flow. Affected by this, real estate companies’ land acquisition, investment and other operational strategies will all be adjusted, and scale growth will inevitably slow down. From a longer-term perspective, the development thinking of the industry is gradually changing.

Tight cash flow will become the norm

High quotas, low interest rates, and mainly US dollar debt have become the characteristics of this round of real estate financing. In terms of cost, the final coupon rate of the 2.5 billion 5-year corporate bonds issued by Greentown Group is only 3.92%; the 1.0 billion 5-year corporate bonds proposed by Yuexiu Financial Holdings have a coupon rate as low as 3.3%-4.3%. .

The interest rates of US dollar bonds issued during the same period were mostly slightly lower than last year. For example, Country Garden plans to issue US$1.2 billion in bills with a maximum interest rate of only 3.3%.

From the perspective of bond issuance purposes, in addition to replenishing funds, borrowing new and repaying the old is also an important consideration. Some companies exchange old debts with higher interest rates for relatively cheap and longer-period new debt.

Yan Yuejin, director of the Think Tank Center of Shanghai E-House Research Institute, told the 21st Century Business Herald that although the beginning of the year was the traditional peak time for real estate financing, the intention of companies to seize the policy window period was also very obvious. Since last year, the real estate financial prudential management system has tried its best, which has made companies realize that the model of large-scale debt development has been difficult to work. In particular, the “three red lines” policy will directly limit the scale of corporate debt.

But before the “three red lines” policy is fully implemented, companies can still manage debt relatively flexibly. The emergence of this round of bond issuance has a factor of “break through” during the window period.

In fact, delaying the debt repayment cycle through debt swaps can also help ease the short-term debt repayment pressure. The report released by the Shell Research Institute shows that since 2018, the debt repayment scale of real estate companies has grown rapidly year by year. In 2021, the scale of due debt of real estate companies is expected to reach 1,244.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36%, and a historic breakthrough in the trillion mark.

After setting a historical record23,000,Bitcoin is going crazy

Bitcoin is in the midst of a new frantic rally.

Following the strong standing on the evening of the 16th at the 20,000 USD mark and setting a historical record, on the 17th, Bitcoin’s upward momentum was still sufficient and continued to break through the 21,000, 22,000, and 23,000 USD mark.

Bitcoin prices continue to soar

On the 17th, the price of Bitcoin continued to soar, breaking through the $23,000 intraday and continuing to record highs.

Led by the rising trend of Bitcoin, the currency circle has fallen into a carnival, and the encrypted digital market is hot. Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin and other cryptocurrencies are gaining momentum.

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At the same time, domestic digital currency stocks have also risen. As of yesterday’s close, the Wind Digital Currency Index rose 3.49%, and the series of concept stocks became popular.

Bitcoin broke through $21,000, setting a new record

Shi Xingao! The price of Bitcoin exceeded $21,000 for the first time.

At around 23:20 on the 16th, data from the Bitcoin trading platform Bitstamp showed that the price of Bitcoin trading rose to around US$20,670, an intraday increase of 6.51%, the first time since 2017.

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Today, Beijing time, the price of Bitcoin broke through the US$21,000 mark for the first time, setting a record high.

With more than 460,000 topics, the “opened” bitcoins successfully made it into the forefront of Weibo search and became the focus of public attention.

Prior to this, the highest price of Bitcoin was $18,801 set on December 16, 2017. The rise of Bitcoin this year has aroused market attention. Since March hitting a new low of $3783 for the year, the current price of Bitcoin has skyrocketed by more than 450%.

According to Bitstamp data, the cumulative increase of Bitcoin has exceeded 210% year-to-date.

The analysis pointed out that the impact of the epidemic and the huge increase in demand for hedging under the “release” of global monetary policy is an important driver of Bitcoin’s recent surge.
However, while Bitcoin continues to rise and set historical records, gold seems to “fall out of favor”-funds are flowing out of the gold market. World Gold Council data show that in November, global gold ETF holdings fell for the first time in a year, and it was the second highest monthly net outflow in history. At the same time, the price of gold fell during the month, marking its worst monthly performance in four years.

The industry believes that the hot market for digital assets led by Bitcoin has diverted the market’s enthusiasm for gold trading.

However, Bitcoin trading also has its risks. Some organizations have reminded that Bitcoin is characterized by extreme price fluctuations. In the history of less than ten years with data, it has experienced multiple surges and then plummets. In addition, bitcoin transactions also have certain regulatory risks.

The main technical differences between DC/EP and CBDC

 

Zhou Xiaochuan also introduced the current technical solutions for digital currency electronic payment. In his opinion, there are mainly the following:

One is an account-based electronic wallet.

Two is a QR code used by merchants. Two-dimensional codes are constantly being upgraded. For example, standardized and dynamic two-dimensional codes have appeared. The technical content of the QR code itself is not too high, so some people say that the QR code may be out of the stage soon, but it is still a technology that can be widely used.

The third is NFC near-field contact transactions, such as ApplePay and Huawei Pay. These are all tools with great potential in the near future.

The fourth is bank cards in mobile phones, including credit cards and UnionPay QuickPass that are paid via POS machines, QR codes or NFC. They can be used for NFC payments such as Cloud QuickPass, ApplePay, and Huawei Pay, as well as other forms of payment. .

Five is a prepaid card, which is still considered by many institutions. One of the sources is Hong Kong’s Octopus electronic toll collection system, which is a very good product based on IC cards and has been successfully promoted and applied in Hong Kong. Carrying a card is lighter than carrying a mobile phone. Therefore, even if mobile terminals become the mainstream configuration of travel in the future, there may be payment tools such as prepaid cards. At the same time, the prepaid card can also be used in mobile phones

The above-mentioned DC/EP technology development ideas are not exactly the same as the current CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currencies) issued by the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Japan, Italy, and Canada, and it is not a CBDC system. An idea inside. The difference between the two is:

First, the second-tier organization of DC/EP actually owns the ownership of e-CNY, guarantees that it can pay, and also owns the corresponding systems, technology and equipment. Before formulating the ideas, the central bank had studied the situation of three note-issuing banks in Hong Kong. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority commissioned three note-issuing banks to print banknotes. In the mid-1990s, before BOCHK joined in, there were mainly two note-issuing banks, HSBC and Standard Chartered. For every 7 yuan of 8 Hong Kong dollars issued by the issuing banks, they had to be handed over to the gold tube. The bureau will pay $1, and the HKMA will issue a 100% payment certificate. From the perspective of the balance sheet, each debt is to issue banknotes, assets are reserves, and the central bank issues certificates of liabilities as liabilities. This is different from the central bank’s assumption of currency ownership and liability for liabilities.

Second, in order to support the stability of the currency, the People’s Bank of China does not engage in products such as Bitcoin. Instead, it adopts different methods, such as requiring 100% cash reserves, or issuing certificates like the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. In addition, it is not impossible for the central bank to issue a comfort letter, but the degree of support is different. The common people are willing to make 100% preparations for the institution and believe that the funds are safer. In the actual system, it is not that simple, because the 100% reserve is only for cash, which is M0 in China. Other quasi-cash types are not included, let alone M1 and M2. Therefore, the reserve certificate can only deal with cash, which is different from the system where banknotes are owned by the central bank.

Third, China’s central bank and second-tier institutions are not simply a wholesale and retail relationship. The responsibilities of the second-tier institutions include understanding customers, anti-money laundering, and protection of user privacy data. These compliance responsibilities are all in the second-tier institutions. If you simply compare the CBDC, everyone feels that the responsibility lies with the central bank, but this is not the case. In order to better maintain the stability of the system, and also for anti-money laundering, the central bank should have all transaction data, but it is only a backup and has no direct commercial interests.