Tagged: Biden

U.S. electors vote to formally elect Biden as the next president

Electors across the United States voted on the 14th to formally elect Democrat Joseph Biden as the next president of the United States. The 50 U.S. states and the capital, Washington, DC, held electoral meetings on the same day to vote for the next president. The final statistics showed that Biden won 306 electoral votes, and the current President Trump seeking re-election won the remaining 232. Biden delivered a speech on the evening of the 14th, saying that the urgent tasks facing the new government include controlling the new crown epidemic, promoting new crown vaccination, providing Americans with more economic assistance and rebuilding the US economy.

Just after winning the game, Biden: “I have a little cold…”

According to a report by Fox News, on the evening of the 14th local time, after the US Electoral College confirmed that Biden had officially won the presidential election, Biden delivered a victory speech in Wilmington, Delaware. Biden’s voice was hoarse during the speech, and he stopped to clear his throat many times. In a call with supporters after the speech, Biden admitted that he “has a little cold.” He said: “I have a little cold, I’m sorry, but you see, you did it, this is not a joke.”

Biden

The ILO says the new crown epidemic has left about 81 million people out of work in the Asia-Pacific

A report issued by the International Labor Organization on the 15th showed that the new crown epidemic has severely impacted the labor market in the Asia-Pacific region, causing about 81 million people to lose their jobs. The report said that the epidemic has had a huge impact on the economy of the Asia-Pacific region. In 2020, the unemployment rate in the Asia-Pacific region may rise from 4.4% last year to between 5.2% and 5.7%. The report said that in most countries in the Asia-Pacific region, women’s working hours and employment rates have fallen more than men. In addition, the employment of young people is more vulnerable to the impact of the epidemic.

Apple plans to increase iPhone production, stock price soars 5%

At the company level, Apple’s stock price jumped 5% on the 15th, providing a greater impetus for US stocks. It was previously reported that, aided by the surge in demand for 5G mobile phones, Apple plans to increase iPhone production by 30% in the first half of 2021 to around 96 million units.

The Japanese government launches the third supplementary budget this fiscal year

The Japanese cabinet meeting decided on the 15th to launch the third supplementary budget for this fiscal year with fiscal expenditures exceeding 19 trillion yen (1 U.S. dollar equals 104 yen) to further increase economic stimulus. The third supplementary budget aims to implement the third large-scale economic stimulus plan proposed by the government on December 8. This plan is the third fiscal “combination punch” made by the Japanese government this year, including private investment and financing, with a total scale of 73.6 trillion yen.

Ukraine and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development signed a US$300 million anti-epidemic financing loan agreement

According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Finance, the country recently signed a US$300 million loan agreement with the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and will receive the first batch of US$170 million in loans before the end of 2020. This loan is the second anti-epidemic financing loan obtained by Ukraine from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development this year, and will be used for the “Modernization of Ukrainian Social Assistance System” project. This project was launched in 2014 to improve social assistance and service levels for low-income families.

Biden finally waited until this day!

According to Reuters, on December 14, local time, a total of 538 electors from the U.S. Electoral College cast their electoral votes in accordance with the results of the state elections. They formally elected the U.S. President and Vice President, confirming that Democrat Biden won the U.S. election and became the next The President of the United States.

Biden
△Biden (data map)

In the battlefield states that have received much attention-Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Wisconsin and Arizona, the electoral college members voted for Biden’s electoral votes in that state.

The Electoral College voting is traditionally a “routine,” but because the Trump camp claimed fraud in the election, this year’s Electoral College voting has become a lot of attention. This time Biden finally sealed the victory, marking the Trump camp’s efforts to overthrow the election result was frustrated.

The Electoral College vote will determine Trump’s “fate”, experts worry that the United States may have armed conflict in the future

On the 14th local time, the 50 U.S. states and Washington, D.C. will hold an electoral college vote to officially confirm Biden as the next president of the United States. Traditionally, this vote is just a symbolic procedure, but because the current US President Trump and his allies have consistently denied and tried to overturn the results of this year’s election, this year’s Electoral College vote is particularly interesting. On the Fox News program broadcast on the 13th, Trump said: “The matter is not over yet. We will continue (challenging the election results).” The supporter of the US president did not give up, not only with Trump’s opposition. They clashed and even angered the Republican Party, threatening that if the party does not support Trump, they will destroy the party. Some experts worry that there may be armed conflicts in the United States in the future.

The vote that determines Trump’s “fate”

According to CNN and “New York Times” media reports on the 13th, state electors will use paper ballots to elect the president and vice president on Monday. The voting time varies from state to state. Some states vote at 10 am, but most states vote in the afternoon. Voting is usually in the State Capitol, Delaware electors will meet in a stadium, and Nevada will hold online voting. Most states provide live broadcasts of the election process. There are security measures around the state capitols to prevent riots.

Biden won 306 electoral votes in this year’s general election, far more than the 270 votes required to enter the White House. Trump only got 232 votes. According to the New York Times, the laws of 33 states and Washington, D.C. require electors to vote according to the state’s general election results, so there should be no surprises in these places. Another 17 states do not restrict electors to vote, which means they can vote for people of their choice. According to Agence France-Presse, since 1948, 16 electors in the United States have not voted in accordance with the results of the general election in their state. CNN previously commented that Monday’s Electoral College vote will test the resilience of the US political system and determine Trump’s fate.

According to the procedure, the voter will be counted after the vote, and the voter has to sign a certificate proving the result. These certificates will match the certificates provided by the governor’s office that announce the total number of votes in the state. These certificates are in six copies and sent to Vice President Pence who is the Speaker of the Senate, the secretaries of states and others. On January 6, next year, both houses of Congress will hold a joint meeting to formally count the electoral votes and announce the winner. At this point, the procedure for the election of the new U.S. president is considered complete.

Republicans plan to challenge voting results

Trump still has no plans to admit defeat. In an interview with Fox News, he emphasized that the matter is not over yet and he will continue to fight. Trump tweeted on the 13th that this year’s election is the most corrupt election in U.S. history. “With corruption and irregularities recorded throughout the entire process, how do states (governments) and politicians confirm the election?” The president also spread grievances on some Republicans, asking them why they accepted “stupid mailed votes,” and accused some Republicans of allowing Democrats to openly “deceive” the people in an attempt to “steal” the election results. The US Supreme Court and Attorney General Barr did not escape the president’s complaints. Trump said that the Supreme Court had disappointed him and asked Barr why he didn’t announce that the justice department was investigating Biden’s son before the election.

According to a Reuters report on the 14th, once the Electoral College has voted, Trump has only one way to overturn the results of the election, and that is to prevent Congress from confirming the vote count on January 6. The New York Times explained that the electoral vote counting process does not allow debate, but after the results are announced, members of Congress can object to the results in writing. The two houses will debate the objections separately, and then vote to decide whether to reject the result of the contested election.

Conservative U.S. House of Representatives and Republican Brooks vowed to raise an objection when Congress deliberated on the voting results next month. However, many media said that this approach is unlikely to succeed. An objection must be passed by a simple majority in both houses of Congress before it can be established. The Democrats control the House of Representatives, so Brooks is doomed to fail there. In the Senate, many Republicans have declared Biden the president-elect.

Conflicts in multiple gatherings

Around the dispute over the election results, the tearing apart of American politics and society has reached an extremely serious degree. According to US media reports, Trump supporters marched in some US cities on the 12th to protest the results of the presidential election. Later that day, a far-right group clashed with anti-Trump activists in Washington, DC. Four people were stabbed and required hospitalization. The police arrested 23 people. Violent incidents also occurred in Olympia, the capital of Washington state. During the conflict, one person was shot and three were arrested. In protests against the election results in Washington, D.C., Trump supporters even threatened that if the Republican Party does not do everything in its power to keep Trump in power, they will destroy the Republican Party.

“Washington Post” commented that Trump’s allegations of “election fraud” added fuel to potential violence. Michigan is one of the most polarized states in the United States. In recent days, tensions in the state have reached a boiling point. Cynthia Johnson, an African-American Rep. from Detroit, revealed that she was repeatedly threatened with violence, including threats to lynch her. Some experts said that under the influence of Trump, incidents of threats and intimidation against officials are increasing at the state and local levels. Fisher, professor of sociology at the University of Maryland, said that now it is not just people accusing each other on social media, but even taking up arms. She believes that the United States is at risk of armed conflict.

According to a report from the Financial Times on the 14th, senior Republicans worry that Trump’s refusal to accept the election results and his attitude of encouraging supporters to protest may undermine the party’s efforts to canvass for two senator candidates in Georgia. Republicans such as Louisiana Senator Cassidy called on Trump to accept the election results, “If there is an internal division, our country, our conservative movement, and our party will not be able to stand up. For these reasons, it’s here. At some point we must unite.”

Biden promised: On the first day in office, he will re-enter the group

On November 4 this year, the United States officially withdrew from the “Paris Climate Agreement” and became the only party to withdraw from the “Paris Climate Agreement” so far.According to foreign media reports, US President-elect Biden promised on the 12th local time that on his first day as president, the United States will rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement.

Data map: US President-elect Biden. Photo by China News Agency reporter Chen Mengtong

Biden
According to reports, December 12, 2020 is the fifth anniversary of the signing of the Paris Climate Agreement. Biden issued a statement on the same day, saying: “On the first day of my presidency, the United States will rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement. I will immediately start cooperating with other countries in the world and do my best to carry out this work, including convening the main tasks within 100 days of the presidency. The leaders of the countries of the economy hold a climate summit.”

Biden also promised to formulate and implement some measures to enable the United States to achieve “zero emissions” of greenhouse gases by 2050.

Biden also announced on his social media on the 12th that the United States will return to the “Paris Climate Agreement” in 39 days.

Biden tweeted: “Five years ago today, countries around the world passed the Paris Climate Agreement on climate change. After 39 days, the United States will rejoin. We will unite the world to promote greater and faster progress and face it. Responding to the climate crisis.”

On November 4, 2019, the U.S. government formally notified the United Nations to withdraw from the “Paris Climate Agreement” that addresses global climate change. On November 4 this year, the United States officially withdrew from the “Paris Climate Agreement” and became the only party to withdraw from the “Paris Climate Agreement” so far.

Will Biden’s best partner Harris straighten out US-Indian relations

According to Xinhua News Agency, Murphy, the head of the US General Services Administration, notified Biden and his team on November 23 that the Trump administration was ready to officially begin the process of regime transition.

Harris

In this way, the admission of Biden and Vice President-elect Harris to the White House was put on the schedule, which once again attracted the attention of the international community. This is no exception in India, and the Indian people also have a special concern, that is, Harris has half Indian ancestry. They hope that this natural bond will bring positive factors to the future development of India and the United States.

However, in an interview with a reporter from China Business News, Researcher Lin Minwang, deputy director of the Center for South Asian Studies of Fudan University, said that although Harris has Indian ancestry, her self-identity is American, not Indian, and she does not have much affection for India itself. . At the same time, she has made strong criticisms of the Modi government in the past, “So combining the above factors, Harris will not become a major factor in promoting the development of India-US relations.”

Half Indian

Harris was born in Berkeley, California, USA in 1964. Her mother was a Tamil from southern India and her father was an African immigrant from Jamaica. After his parents divorced in childhood, Harris and his mother who believed in Hinduism depended on each other, and the relationship was extremely close.

“Harris embraced his Indian culture when he was growing up, but also proudly lives as an African American.” The American media introduced her in this way in an article last year. And Harris herself has said that she has never been entangled with her identity, and that she has always been “an American.”

During the campaign, Biden and Harris received a lot of support from the Indian American community. After the U.S. mainstream media judged that Biden and Harris won the election, Indian Prime Minister Modi and opposition Congress leader Rahul Gandhi (Rahul Gandhi) all congratulated Harris and said that Harris’s election made Indians Americans and Indians are proud.

Modi had a telephone conversation with Biden on the 17th local time in India to congratulate him on his victory. When introducing the content of the conversation the next day, Modi wrote on Twitter: “I also conveyed my congratulations to the US vice presidential candidate Harris. Her success is the pride of Indian Americans and will also strengthen An important source of India-US relations.”

However, in the elections, Harris mainly identified himself as representatives of African Americans and minorities. It is particularly worth noting that although Harris has no Chinese ancestry and has not specialized in Chinese affairs, he has a Chinese name. This comes from the fact that in 2003, when she was running for the San Francisco District Attorney, in order to make the Chinese voters feel close, she specially asked the local Chinese leaders to “customize”.

Among the major immigrant groups in the United States, the number of Indians has maintained rapid growth in recent years, second only to Mexicans. After the media confirmed that Biden won the US election, Biden has included more than 20 Indian-Americans in the new government officials’ consideration list.

Among them, Mala Adiga (Mala Adiga) of Indian origin has confirmed that he will serve as the policy director of the Office of the First Lady. She is a senior policy aide in the Biden campaign and previously served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Academic Programs during the Obama administration.

National interest first

In an interview with a reporter from China Business News, Lin Minwang pointed out that compared with the Republican Party, the Democratic Party has more reservations about the internal affairs of the Modi government in the past.

In fact, even the people of Harbin have criticized some policies of the Indian government, especially when it comes to India’s handling of the Kashmir issue, her criticism is particularly prominent.

In international relations, consideration of the actual interests of the country is far more important than that of a foreign country where the leader is related by blood. So for Harris, being familiar with India does not mean being close to India.

The Indian opposition party also accused Modi of favoring Trump in the US general election, worrying that this would affect future India-US relations. Some South Asian affairs observers pointed out that, compared with Trump, Biden may not favor India on South Asia issues, but will adopt a more balanced policy between India and Pakistan.

On the immigration issue, Biden is committed to reforming the current visa system, which will benefit India. The Trump administration has imposed restrictions on the H-1B visa program, making it impossible for thousands of Indians working in the US technology industry to continue working there.

Before his birthday, Indian Foreign Minister Su Jie said that Biden is no stranger to India. When he was the Vice President of the United States and Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, he had many contacts with India. During the campaign, Biden said that if he is elected president, India will become a natural partner of the United States.

In an interview with a reporter from China Business News, Lin Minwang said that both the Democratic Party and the Republican Party, India has a very important strategic position for the United States, but in terms of importance, there are also differences in fields and degrees.

He said that despite strategic considerations, India is not an official ally of the United States after all, and its importance is not the highest priority. In the early days of the Democratic Party’s administration, the energy will probably be concentrated on handling internal affairs, and the relationship with India will remain normal. It is expected that there will be a trend for better development in the future.

 

The Biden team received a notification!

On the 23rd local time, CNN reported that the US General Services Administration had notified the Biden team to officially start the government transition process. Since then, the media confirmed that various departments of the US federal government also received emails that evening confirming that Biden was elected president.
In this email to the contacts of various departments of the federal government, it was written: “According to the revised Presidential Transition Act of 1963, today, on November 23, 2020, the Director of the General Services Administration has confirmed that Biden and Congressman Kamala Harris was elected to the positions of president and vice president.”
Subsequently, Trump posted on social media: “Our lawsuit is still going on, and we will continue to work tirelessly. I believe we will win!” But he then said that although the legal case is “continuing”, he Tell Murphy, the director of the General Services Administration, “to do something about the initial agreement.”
Johannes Abraham, Executive Director of Biden’s Transition Team, welcomed the General Services Administration’s decision, saying that it was “a necessary step to start responding to the challenges facing the country so that the epidemic can be controlled and the economy back on track. This final decision is A formal administrative action aimed at formally starting the transition process of federal agencies. In the coming days, officials of the transition team will begin to meet with officials of the federal departments to discuss measures to respond to the epidemic.”

International finance11.24

The 15th G20 Summit reached consensus on five major economic and trade outcomes
A few days ago, the 15th summit of the leaders of the Group of Twenty (G20) was held in the form of video. All parties reached consensus on a series of major issues. Among them, five aspects of practical results were reached in the economic and trade field. One of the economic and trade achievements is the approval of the “Group of Twenty Countries’ Response to New Coronary Pneumonia and Support for Global Trade and Investment Collective Action.” Second, reach an important consensus on safeguarding the multilateral trading system and advance the necessary reforms of the WTO. In terms of its commitment to keep the market open, the G20 proposes to ensure fair competition and create a free, fair, inclusive, non-discriminatory, transparent, predictable and stable trade and investment environment. In improving the sustainability and resilience of global supply chains, we pledge to help developing countries and LDCs better integrate into the trading system. The G20 has also formulated policy guidelines to encourage small, medium and micro enterprises to actively participate in international trade and investment to promote inclusive economic growth.

IMF official: China’s continued deepening of reform and opening up will help build a new development pattern
In a written interview with a reporter from Xinhua News Agency, Helge Berger, Assistant Director of the International Monetary Fund’s Asia-Pacific Department and Director of China Affairs, said that China’s economy is recovering rapidly from the new crown epidemic. China has launched a series of deepening reforms and opening up. The measures will help promote China’s domestic economic growth and help build a new development pattern in which domestic and international cycles are the mainstay and the domestic and international dual cycles promote each other.

Biden announces “team roster”
US “President-elect” Biden announced a series of cabinet members on the 23rd. Among them, Anthony Brinken was nominated as Secretary of State, Majorcas as Secretary of Homeland Security, Avril Haynes as Director of Intelligence, and Jack Sullivan Served as National Security Advisor to the White House, and Thomas Greenfield served as the Permanent Representative of the United States to the United Nations. According to CNBC reports, Biden will nominate former Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen (Janet Yellen) as Secretary of the Treasury. If finally confirmed, Yellen will become the first female Treasury secretary in American history.

Germany’s November comprehensive PMI fell to a 5-month low
According to the monthly survey results released by the market research institution Esson Huamai on the 23rd, Germany’s November comprehensive purchasing managers index (PMI) fell from the final value of 55.0 last month to 52.0, the lowest point in five months. The survey showed that due to Germany’s lockdown measures in response to the new crown epidemic, the German service industry PMI in November fell to 46.2 from 49.5 last month, and the manufacturing PMI fell to 57.9 from 58.2 last month.

Singapore raises its economic growth forecast for this year
The Ministry of Trade and Industry of Singapore issued a report on the 23rd that, taking into account the domestic and foreign environment and the country’s economic contraction of 6.5% in the first three quarters, the expected growth rate of Singapore’s GDP in 2020 will be from -7% to -5%. “Adjusted to “-6.5% to -6%”. Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry predicts that Singapore’s economy will resume growth in 2021, with an expected growth rate of 4% to 6%.

Short-selling surges, the dollar plummets

January 20 is the day Trump left the presidency.

On the next two important days, on December 14, the electors will meet in the states, and on January 6, the votes will be counted in the U.S. Capitol. These are the final days for the highest authority to decide the next president.
The dust settled.
Trump is trying his best to stumble, prevent the smooth transfer of power, trigger a legal and constitutional crisis, and cause greater tears in the United States.
After decades of polarization between the rich and the poor, more and more people in the United States are robbing more and more resources and entering the cycle of entropy growth.
Housekeeper” does not turn the key

Emily Murphy (Emily Murphy), the “big steward” of the federal government and the current Administrator of the General Services Agency (GSA), refused to comment.
According to the “Washington Post” report, after Biden announced his victory, Emily Murphy, the director of the General Services Administration, did not sign the transfer of transition funds, corresponding materials, and contact channels, nor did he sign relevant documents. s plan.
Pamela Pennington, a spokesperson for the General Services Administration, clarified that the Director did not sign relevant documents because the general election situation has not yet been clarified, and the Director’s failure to sign is to act in accordance with the law. After all the circumstances are clarified, the director will continue to abide by and fulfill all regulations in accordance with the law.
Don’t admit that Biden won the election, don’t give keys, don’t give resources.
In 1963, the United States signed the Presidential Transition Act. Under normal circumstances, after the new president is confirmed in the general election, the Director of the US General Services Administration, who is in charge of federal buildings and other resources, will sign a document (letter) to officially hand over the approved millions to the transition team of the winner. US dollars, official contact channels, office areas and equipment of various agencies, etc.

The transfer of power from Bush to Obama is called perfect

The transfer of power from Bush to Obama is called perfect

The transfer of power from Bush to Obama is called perfect
Once the Director of General Services has signed the relevant letter, the current US government will release computer systems, salary payments and administrative support, as well as assist in the establishment of a new government, which is expected to cost approximately US$9.9 million.
Officials of the transition team obtained government e-mail addresses, obtained office space, and launched a series of government transition operations.
In theory, Murphy only needs to do routine work, and on the second day of election day (candidates usually have already admitted victory or defeat) the “ascertainment” procedure, signing a letter acknowledging the winner.
Now, Trump refuses to admit defeat, Murphy does not express his position, and ignores the Democratic Party’s inquiry letter, and the government handover process cannot be initiated.
Biden’s transition team was unable to access resources through normal channels. There was no federal government official address book, intelligence briefing, and vaccine distribution plan, and 6 million funds were frozen.
Biden had to raise 10 million US dollars urgently as a transitional fund.
What Biden is doing now is to bypass the current government, connect directly with the states, build his own team, and speak out to the public.
Why are the Republicans still supporting Trump? For one thing, they hope to use the current chaotic situation to gain an advantage in the Senate.
The Republican senator from South Dakota, the second-most person in the Republican Party after McConnell, directly admitted that the Republican Party needs Trump supporters.
Georgia became the focus.

Currently, the Democrats have determined to win 48 seats in the Senate, and the Republicans have determined to win 50 seats. In January next year, Georgia will re-elect senators. If the Democrats can win two seats, they will be equally divided in the Senate with Republicans, each with 50 seats.
The Senate vote is even, and the Vice President, as the Speaker of the Senate, can play a key role in one vote.
Campaign funds are flooding into Georgia.
The Trump administration requires several states to recount their votes, and Georgia is the most closely watched. On November 21, the Trump campaign once again asked Georgia to recount the votes. Georgia will conduct a second recount of all paper ballots in the state’s 2020 US presidential election.
You know, Georgia has already conducted a recount, and the results were just released on the 19th, confirming that Biden’s votes surpassed Trump.
According to the rules of the game, Trump has the right to request a recount, but he has repeatedly asked for a recount. It is nothing more than trying to mix things up and wait until the results of the congressman election next year are released.
Trump is so cooperative, one has to doubt that Trump is playing a game with the Republican leaders to avoid being held accountable after resigning as president.
Trump wants to ensure his wealth status so that he can live a stable life after stepping down, while the Republican leaders are planning for the next election.
We have already said that Trump has realized that the premature launch of the top judge of the Republican faction has made himself lose the bargaining chip. In the election of members of the Senate, he will never let himself repeat the same mistakes.

Trump enjoys golf for the sole purpose of destroying the United States

After the above analysis, we can understand that Trump is now a pawn for the Republican Party to increase its bargaining chips.
Even participating in the G20 meeting does not delay Trump’s tweets. He is even playing perfunctory international meetings.
Everything Trump is doing now is to disrupt the situation.
On November 21, Trump tweeted questioning the results of the election, questioning hundreds of thousands of fraudulent ballots, spitting “(the 2020 president of the United States) election is a scam” and questioning why Biden formed a cabinet so quickly .He questioned high-tech companies, pharmaceutical companies, and almost all the media.
At 2:30 pm on November 20th, Trump held a press conference at the White House to reduce drug prices, accusing Pfizer and other American pharmaceutical companies of deliberately delaying the release of vaccine results until after the election in order to prevent him from winning, criticizing large pharmaceutical companies Against yourself.
Pfizer and other pharmaceutical companies did not evaluate the data in October as originally planned, and the results would have been available in October. They waited until after the election, because pharmaceutical companies felt that this would affect the results of the election.
Trump criticized the media for fake news and criticized large technology companies.
Another thing Trump does is to play golf. Since the election day on November 3, Trump has played golf for 4 days and has played more than 310 golf during his entire tenure.
At 8 o’clock in the morning on November 21, the G20 summit opened. Trump expressed that he would occupy a leading position for a long time, and then started tweeting. Then, he left the White House before 10 o’clock in the morning and went to a place outside Washington, DC. golf Club.
Then, there was a picture of the leader on the golf course. He was wearing a red jacket, a white hat and a golf club in his hand.
The Guardian wrote sharply: Trump skipped the “outbreak prevention” discussion session of the G20 summit and went to one of his golf clubs. At the same time, the number of new confirmed cases of new crown in the United States was 19.85 within 24 hours. Million cases.
At the beginning of the election, he played golf.

The election was stuck, and he played golf.

The world’s major leaders discussed the fight against the epidemic, and he played golf.

Trump directly labelled the Democratic Party as corrupt.
As long as the fan believes that the number of fans does not decrease and is exempted, he will win.

The world’s largest free trade zone landed this week

This article is reproduced from the WeChat official account of Huang Hancheng (ID: zgtrendPlus) in Mong Kok.
Author: Huang Seoul

The world is changing dramatically.

Various signals indicate that the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) led by China will be officially signed this Sunday (15th).

This is the largest free trade zone in the history of mankind, and it is also the first super-large multilateral free trade zone with Eastern countries as its core after the great maritime era in the 15th century.

For this moment, China has waited for 8 years.

Its significance is not just as simple as accelerating the transfer of the world economic center to East Asia. The bigger symbol is that on the eve of the WTO “disintegration”, when the world is about to usher in turbulent waves, China has finally grasped a stable anchor.

Moreover, using this as a springboard, China can also further win the China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Area, the China-EU Investment Agreement, and join the extremely difficult CPTPP for China.

At the beginning of next year, 78-year-old Biden is very likely to enter the White House, and Sino-US friction will switch to a new model. If the Cold War of the last century used military competition to bring down the Soviet Union, the United States under Biden’s helm tried to use “economic islandization” to lock China’s development.

A big screen of encirclement and suppression was opened between the two most powerful economies in the world.

China has never felt more oppressive like this time.

01

Starting from Wednesday (12th), the 37th ASEAN Summit will be held in a video format for several days. At the summit on the 15th, countries are expected to sign the RCEP agreement.

The agreement includes ASEAN, 15 economies including China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand, covering 29.7% of the world’s population and 28.9% of GDP.

Previous news said that in terms of trade in goods, the signatories agreed to remove at least 90.3% of the tariffs on products within 5 to 10 years, and will introduce more transparent rules to lower non-tariff barriers. In terms of investment, a negative list system was implemented to further lower the market entry barriers.

In a word, in these 15 economies in the future, the flow of goods and capital will be as free as in a country, without all kinds of chaotic barriers.

This is of great significance to China.

As the world’s factory, China is at the heart of the global industrial chain, and trade in intermediate goods occupies a very large proportion. In 2018, China’s processing trade import and export amounted to 8.4 trillion yuan, accounting for more than a quarter of the total import and export volume.

Intermediate goods require multiple cross-border trades, so that tariffs are constantly superimposed and magnified, reducing the price competitive advantage of final products. Under the framework of RCEP, China can greatly reduce production costs.

Let me give you an example. Huawei’s P30 Pro contains 1631 components, more than half of which come from the number of components produced in Japan (869), and the value is 23%.

The China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Area is under arduous negotiations and has not yet been able to land. The landing of RCEP is equivalent to China indirectly signing a preliminary free trade agreement with Japan.

In the future, these parts and components may enter China with zero tariffs and be processed and assembled in factories. As a result of saving various tariffs, Chinese consumers can buy P30 at a lower price.

Not only that, P30 exports to non-RCEP countries, such as Europe, the Middle East and other places, can also gain a greater price advantage and expand global market share.

Regardless of whether the Honor brand will be sold to China in the future, China’s mobile phone manufacturing industry will benefit as a whole in the future.

Japan is the third largest source of Chinese imports and the third largest source of exports. This country alone can release a dividend that cannot be underestimated for China. You can imagine the superimposed effect of a dozen economies.

Although in the past, China has signed free trade agreements with other members of RCEP, such as South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. However, the mutually agreed tariff concession period is too long. For many products, tariffs will be cancelled after 10, 15 or 20 years.

The RCEP not only cuts tariffs more aggressively than the existing free trade agreements, but also greatly shortens the concession period (probably 5-10 years).

Therefore, China can enter the zero-tariff stage ahead of schedule with these dozen members, and hedge against the islanding trap set by the United States.

02

Having said that, I first want to popularize the significance of zero tariffs for global economic growth.

As you all know, the level of development across the world is not consistent. Many countries, in order to protect the relatively weak domestic industries and allow their own companies to have room for survival, will set high tariffs to artificially lower the competitive advantage of overseas imported products.

In fact, this is very unfavorable to the global specialization of labor.

More than two hundred years ago, Adam Smith, Ricardo and others said that if countries concentrate on developing their own industries with absolute/comparative advantages and weak products are made up for by global trade, it will not only greatly increase global productivity, but also Expand the wealth of the whole society.

Do you think about it?

During the imperialist era of the 19th century, Britain, France and other countries used strong ships and guns to forcibly shape the earth into a society of labor: after the textile industry of China and India was destroyed by dumping, it was reduced to underdeveloped areas that provided cotton, while Britain became the world. The factory uses advanced steam engines to produce larger-scale output.

Although this colonial model is extremely cruel, objectively speaking, it has also led to a more extensive and effective use of the world’s human and material resources, and the world’s productivity has been greatly improved-between 1860-1890, global industrial production increased by three times It increased by 7 times between 1860-1913.

Today, the method of force is no longer feasible. Therefore, the world will produce the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and the WTO. Reduce tariffs as much as possible through negotiations.

Of course, the lower the tariff, the better.

But there is also a problem here, that is, the WTO is a huge complex, with more than 160 member states.

According to the most important principle of the WTO, “Most Favored Nation Treatment”, a country must reduce tariffs on a certain product of a certain country at the same time to reduce the same tariff for all the remaining more than 100 members, and the door is fully opened.

Therefore, within the framework of the WTO, it is difficult to lower tariffs anymore, let alone zero tariffs.

Take India and Brazil as examples. Although they are the same four BRIC countries, their manufacturing level is obviously lower than that of China, so the average weighted tariff rate is also higher, respectively 9.65% and 6.22% (2016), which are several times that of China.

Attention! This is only an average line, and the tariffs in some industries are as high as 20% and 30%. I would rather let domestic consumers pay the bill at a high price than make you comfortable.

The dream of zero tariffs has been delayed. This is why the United Kingdom, France and others have signed the EU agreement, the United States, Canada, and Mexico have formed the North American Free Trade Area, and Vietnam and Thailand have established the ASEAN Free Trade Area.

The RCEP to be signed in a few days is equivalent to cutting away a third of the WTO’s territory and establishing a free trade zone by itself.

By that time, more than 90% of products will gradually have zero tariffs, which will greatly promote the economic vitality of more than a dozen members, including China.

First, because there is almost no obstacle to international trade, the import industry intensifies competition, and low-efficiency companies are forced to phase out and withdraw. High-efficiency enterprises in the export industry have expanded their output space and are more willing to adopt advanced production technologies suitable for large markets.

Second, the industrial chain will be reorganized within the region to form a more refined value chain division of labor system. Multinational companies will place production departments in the member countries that best match. And this country may be China.

The research results show that when RCEP achieves trade liberalization in all sectors except the agricultural sector, China’s real GDP growth rate will increase by 0.22%, export growth rate by 11.44%, and import growth rate by 17.12%.

Under the friction between China and the United States, such growth is very valuable!

03

You know, there is not much time left for China.

With the “approval” of the United States in 2001, China successfully joined the WTO. This is a major turning point in China’s historical process.

At that time, the United States was wishful thinking, thinking about integrating the closed China into the world industrial chain. As long as the economy develops, its political and social fields will change in the direction envisioned by the United States. But in recent years, the intestines of the United States have been regretted.

The United States believes that the WTO’s sanctions and restraint mechanisms have no effect on the “rogue” China. Therefore, the United States kicked off the WTO and led the promotion of the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement).

Although Trump began to withdraw from the group after he took office, and the TPP was downgraded to CPTPP, the current Biden has already vowed to come back and pull in various allies to isolate China.

The world’s third largest free trade zone covers developed countries such as Japan, Canada, and Australia, as well as emerging economies such as Vietnam, Malaysia, and Mexico. There are both the most important export market for China and China’s strongest competitor.

If the United States rejoins, the TPP members will include China’s largest, third, and fifth largest export markets, and the third, fourth, fifth, eighth, and ninth largest import markets.

Compared with RCEP, CPTPP rules are more advanced, more comprehensive and more modern. In addition to the principle of zero tariffs, it also implements zero subsidies and zero barriers. The movement of capital, goods, information, and population in this region will be more liberalized than RCEP.

All member states have a richer choice of import and export, which will cause a certain degree of substitution for China, and negative effects on trade and capital transfer.

Let me make an analogy. Everyone knows that Vietnam’s labor and land costs are particularly cheap. This is a major advantage for Vietnam to develop low-end manufacturing. If Vietnam’s light industrial products are shipped to the United States, the tariff will be reduced to zero, making the CIF price lower than that of Chinese manufacturing. , What do you think will happen next?

The United States will definitely import large quantities from Vietnam and kick China away. The business world doesn’t talk about friendship.

Capital has no borders. In order to survive, Chinese companies in this industry will definitely move their families and move to Vietnam for production, which will intensify the hollowing out of the domestic industry. The new global investment will also bypass China and flood into Vietnam.

In a word, the zero-tariff rule will artificially interrupt the regional production network, impact China’s automobile, textile and other industries, and squeeze out China’s export market share.

In January 2019, CPTPP officially came into effect. The Peterson Institute for International Economics in the United States predicts that CPTPP will reduce China’s GDP by 0.04% and the value of trade in goods by 0.2%.

The impact is controllable and limited, but don’t forget that this is only in the absence of the world’s largest economy, the United States.

Now, Biden has vowed to return to the CPTPP, and this year the UK has reached a free trade agreement with Japan. This veteran capitalist country regards this as a springboard to join the CPTPP (Japan dominates the CPTPP), and wants to take this opportunity to expand in the Asia-Pacific. Divide into larger cakes.

In the future, as Britain, the United States and other major countries join in and further absorb China’s Taiwan, Indonesia, the Philippines, and South Korea, the economic impact on the Chinese mainland will increase exponentially!

In other words, the economic benefits brought by RCEP to China are not enough to offset the losses caused by the US returning to the TPP.

After all, it may be nearly half of the global market in the future, and it is still a super free trade zone lacking China. The negative impact on China cannot be taken lightly.

04

This is why China has a strong sense of urgency.

Not long ago, the senior executives delivered a keynote speech at the 3rd Shanghai Import Expo, mentioning that bilateral, multilateral and regional cooperation will be deepened in the future.

“China is willing to negotiate high-standard free trade agreements with more countries, promote the signing of regional comprehensive economic partnership agreements as soon as possible, accelerate the negotiation process of China-EU investment agreements, China-Japan-Korea free trade agreements, and strengthen exchanges and mutual exchanges with world high-standard free trade areas. Jian.”

RCEP is far from being able to break the trap of “economic islandization” that the United States is laying out. Therefore, China is seizing the time to implement the China-EU Investment Agreement and the China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Area.

Take the China-Europe Investment Agreement (BIT) as an example. Since 2014, BIT has conducted at least 33 rounds of negotiations. In September this year, high-level leaders held a video meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, President of the European Council, and President of the European Commission von der Lein.

The leaders of China and the European Union confirmed that they will complete the negotiation goals within this year, which is the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the EU. For China, this will be the first bilateral investment agreement in history that includes market access.

China will open up some areas that were considered restricted areas in the past, or further remove the proportion of equity restrictions, which will stimulate foreign investment in Europe.

Secondly, China may adopt the principle of competition neutrality for state-owned enterprises for the first time, reducing financial subsidies, preferential loans, and land allocation to state-owned enterprises. This will have a series of very far-reaching effects on China’s economy.

On the one hand, domestic private enterprises and foreign enterprises will get the same competitive conditions as state-owned enterprises. You know what this means.

On the other hand, it will allow Europe to reduce political review of Chinese state-owned enterprises, help state-owned enterprises to invest in overseas mergers and acquisitions, and expand China’s GNP and global influence.

In this way, even if there is friction between China and the United States, China can accelerate its integration with the huge EU market and obtain EU technology and intellectual property rights.

The world is in a process of violent turmoil, and Sino-US friction has entered a time of race against time. It depends on who goes faster.

CPTPP’s requirements for freedom of labor association, collective bargaining, high standards in environmental protection and intellectual property rights, and the adoption of investor-state dispute mechanisms have destined China to join in and collapse from within.

Therefore, China’s idea is to use the China-EU Investment Agreement and the China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Area to approach these new gameplays step by step, to use openness to force reforms, and to eliminate the drawbacks of the mechanism that cannot keep up with internationally accepted rules.

I have said before that if Biden comes to power, as a traditional establishment, although he will not be like Trump, he will use “legal” market means to contain China and isolate China.

This type of attack is even more terrifying.

Because when the United States reorganizes new rules and establishes a new political and economic order, the United States does not need to worry about killing one thousand enemies and self-defeating eight hundred, like a trade war.

These new rules have increased the interests of the United States and its allies, and can automatically and openly hold back China’s pace, so it is more effective to implement them.

The world is on the eve of great changes.

Whether China can seize the opportunity of a new round of globalization at the node where the WTO is on the verge of “disintegration” depends on the two-year window period.

- END -

Trump VS Biden, two luxury houses are exposed

The U.S. presidential election has become intensified. Trump is seeking re-election to “make the United States continue to be strong”, and Biden has declared “fight for the soul of the country.”

The President of the United States is considered to be the pinnacle of world politics. What kind of people are they? Maybe we can see their character and even political orientation from their house decoration!

Trump is a well-known real estate tycoon in the United States, and he likes to show off his wealth very much. He is recognized as the most nasty upstart in the United States. When Trump was 27 years old, there were about 14,000 apartments under his name, each of which was gleaming and full of local tyrants.

On the other hand, Biden, who calls himself “Middle Class Joe”, is very restrained, and his house is simple and elegant, and looks more warm.

01
Trump’s landlord

The Trump Tower in New York is an asset under Trump’s name. Starting from the 66th floor, it is a three-story duplex mansion. Its interior luxury is beyond ordinary people’s ability to penetrate!

In the mid-1990s, Trump bought this building, but he felt that the appearance was too low-key, so he waved his hand and demolished the exterior wall and redesigned it. Then he had the current black glass with a gilded frame to show off him. Is different.

The penthouse is worth about 100 million U.S. dollars and offers beautiful views of Manhattan’s Central Park.

Entering the residence, the shining golden brilliance rushes toward you, and the magnificence is not enough to describe its internal scene. It can be said that it has a soft spot for the luxury style of Louis XIV in France. Many design inspirations come from the palace decoration of this period.

In addition, court-style designs such as Baroque and Rococo are also all on the battlefield.

The layout of the lobby is symmetrical, and the gilded candlesticks on the two glass tables are eye-catching. You can feel the luxurious classic style, and even the ceiling is full of classic murals.

All the dishes, chandeliers, vases and other decorations displayed here are inlaid with 24K gold! Every item on the table is exquisite and priceless.

“Trump”‘s philosophy of money supremacy is vividly expressed in this house. The political attitude of the supremacy of money and the supremacy of white people has been supported by white people, rural areas and suburbs until now.

02
Middle-class Biden’s “petty bourgeoisie” feelings

Biden and his wife Jill currently live in a mansion in Virginia, one of the wealthiest communities in the United States. Biden’s neighbors include Prince Ben of Saudi Arabia, former Secretary of State Colin Powell and former Speaker of the House of Representatives Newt Gingrich.

This nearly 12,000-square-foot house is behind a picturesque and quiet road. It has a foyer, home theater, parking lot for 20 cars, and a fully equipped gym with sauna.

Quite different from Trump’s magnificence, Biden’s residence is dominated by a touch of cool color.

This cold, even small and fresh villa has a modern kitchen with hidden lighting, a spacious kitchen island and first-class equipment.

Entering the restaurant, it is as if it is a seemingly real 18th century room, decorated with crystal chandeliers and small vintage print walls.

The light and luxurious living room is full of all kinds of gray home furnishings. The seemingly simple walk-in fireplace is made of old stone. According to reports, it was designed for Lafayette on the Brandywan battlefield. The pine floor was recovered from a court in Dover, and it can be said that each object has its own story.

Biden’s house looks simple and simple. From his spacious, bright and not cumbersome decoration style, you can also see his delicate petty bourgeoisie style, caring about the inner value, soul and story of things, which is in line with his style of behavior.

After taking an inventory of these two houses with very different styles, do you find it interesting? The decoration of a house can actually reflect his personal characteristics.

The current situation in the United States is terrifying

Before the official results of the US general election came out, the whole world had already started lining up to congratulate Biden. However, among everyone, the vision of WHO Director-General Tedros Tedros was particularly eye-catching…

This year is the year of the new coronavirus pneumonia pandemic. As the only country that officially withdrew from the World Health Organization and refused to pay the fees, its Director-General Tedros Tedros naturally has 10,000 reasons.

However, whether Trump continues to govern or turns into Biden, the tens of millions of confirmed patients in the United States are not resolved by simple “substitution.” Even the entire society will become even more torn because of sudden big changes.

So, before the United States splits, let’s take a look at how WHO Director-General Tedros said about Biden?

The World Health Assembly in 2020 was supposed to be held from November 9th to November 14th through video, but the United States has already withdrawn from the World Health Organization, so the co-chairman can only use Twitter to express his “winning” to Biden. “Congratulations, and looking forward to cooperating with the Biden government.

During the general election campaign, the “epidemic” is naturally the two candidates who must explain the topic exactly to the voters. According to Biden, if he wins, he will immediately “promote” Dr. Fauci, the city should be closed, the mask should be worn, and everything will be implemented in the form of law and according to the strictest standards.

However, can Biden’s rhetoric really go as smoothly as he said?

The new government must face tens of millions of confirmed patients

The United States will not immediately “resurrect with blood” for tens of millions of confirmed patients because of a change of president. Even during the November national election, the number of new cases in a single day exceeded 100,000 for several consecutive days. These data prove that However, the epidemic in the United States is very serious and its spread efficiency is extremely fast.

If Biden succeeds in “taking over”, based on the current total population of the United States, he may be able to change the million-level cases, even if the reversal cannot be achieved, but at least it can significantly slow down the new cases. Frankly speaking, Biden has been unable to stop the spread of the virus.

The new government must face trillions of dollars in debt

The United States has the world’s most popular banknote-the US dollar, but throughout the epidemic, in order to ensure the normal operation of the country, the Trump administration has issued countless welfare policies, and many people have been able to survive because of this. But the landlord’s money is not really unlimited.

If Biden succeeds in “taking over”, based on the huge debts currently owed by the United States, it will be more difficult for him to approve the social welfare of the people than during Trump’s time. And if you don’t increase your capital investment, your own “city lockdown policy” will naturally not be implemented, people will have no money, and you may make trouble.

The new government must face radical opponents

Whether China is engaged in the “national closure of cities” or “province and municipal closures”, it is worth learning from every country, and it also benefits from the unity of the Chinese nation. However, during Trump’s four years in power, the whole society has become more and more torn apart. Until recently, even the most basic “wearing a mask” could not form a social consensus.

If Biden succeeds in “taking over”, according to the freedom and democracy advocated by the Americans for a long time, don’t expect the people of the whole country to twist together, concentrate on doing big things, and eliminate the new coronavirus in one go. If the policy is too strong, it will even be countered by people across the country.

With reference to the resignation of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, leaving to the next leader Yoshihide Suga, a mess of internal and external troubles, the “thunder” planted by Trump is naturally countless. The decline of the United States is inevitable. Trump has struggled with his life for four years, and he cannot be transferred in essence, and he does not necessarily change individuals. Everything can be changed.

Even if Biden succeeds in ascending the throne as President of the United States, the United States he faces is nothing but a mess under Trump, with tens of millions of confirmed patients, trillions of debts, and a group of fanatics.