Tagged: Ali

A financial poisonous Ant?

The second hurdle is finance. Ali must change his genes to pass.

2020 is another critical year for Ali. The epidemic is good for the Internet, but the policy is not. Time changes, Ali cannot be as bullish as in 2015.

Looking at the search index, you will know that even the media that Ali has voted for are neutral articles, and even broke Ali’s anise. Similar to the fact that the private life of the former Ali prince Jiang Fan was completely blocked, it will never happen again.

At every critical moment, there must be a class action lawsuit in the United States.

In the last war, investors accused Alibaba of failing to disclose matters that had been warned by the State Administration for Industry and Commerce before listing, and eventually paid 250 million US dollars to reach a settlement. This time, because the Ant Group suspended its listing, American investors in Ali became angry. It is estimated that some people rushed to the vegetable field with their sickles. Unexpectedly, they disappeared, emotionally and profitably.

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On November 13, Alibaba US stock investors filed a lawsuit in a New York court, accusing the company and its executives of making material false or misleading statements during the IPO process of Ant Group.

Now the key is not whether Ant can be listed, but the financial model of Ant is unsustainable and revenue will drop sharply.

The suspension button of Ant Group’s listing was pressed, and the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission of the People’s Bank of China issued the “Interim Measures for the Management of Online Small Loans (Draft for Comment)”.

Originally, people were eating hot pot and singing. Now, the hot pot is taken away, and the person who eats the pot looks blank.

This scene is frozen in history.

Ant’s original small loan model must, must and will definitely change. The leverage is too high, too big to fail, too risky, and unfair competition with other financial institutions.

Mr. Huang Qifan facilitated the cooperation with Jack Ma when he was in Chongqing. He knew ants.

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Huang Qifan said: “Ma Yun spent hundreds of billions of dollars and borrowed them. Where did the money come from? First bank loans and then ABS. Huabei and borrowed more than 3 billion capital funds reached more than 300 billion, a 100 times magnification.”

“This 100 times loan is okay. His more than 3 billion loans were loaned at a ratio of 1:2, and the bank gave him 5 or 6 billion loans, forming about 9 billion. Then he went to the capital market to engage in ABS, because we The conventional capital market does not stipulate the number of cycles for issuing ABS. For a conventional small financial institution, if a loan of 1 billion is issued, it may take a year to issue ABS with a loan of 1 billion. Years have passed, and the first round of assets has long been recovered.”

The whole process is not illegal.

At that time, Huang Qifan’s five requirements to Ma Yun were:
First, the source of capital must be capital injection from the parent group, not from netizens like P2P;
Second, the money of small loan companies should be loaned to the customer chain, not to unrelated netizens;
Third, loan funds must be borrowed and financed at 2.3 times as required by the China Banking Regulatory Commission;
Fourth, the source of subsequent loan funds can be through compliant ABS financing;
Fifth, the business can radiate to the whole country, but the headquarters must be registered in Chongqing.

These five items have delayed the thunder explosion for Xiaodai, or even no thunder explosion.

In order to control risks, the central bank has decided that ABS can only be cycled 5 times at most. In fact, it is mainly determined by each locality. In 2012, Chongqing stipulated that the scale of microfinance operations was up to 2.3 times larger.

The 2017 new regulations have two restrictions that have the greatest impact on ABS: ABS will no longer be listed and included in the on-balance sheet supervision; ABS financing will be included in the leveraged operation ratio.

The new ABS regulations are not fatal to ant small loans, there are many smart people, and the problem is easy to solve.

Huang Qifan explained the workaround, increasing the funds of Ant Small Microfinance Company and Ant Merchant Credit Company from 3 billion to more than 10 billion. Through bank loans, it can still obtain more than 50 billion of funds, and then pass up to 5 rounds of ABS. , Can also get 300 billion funds.

Under the new regulations on cash loans, Ants consciously reduced the scale of ABS. Data from the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s debt information platform show that since the end of 2017, the issuance scale of the Ant ABS project has dropped from 30 billion yuan to 10 billion yuan.

The scale has declined, and the operation continues. On November 24, the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s debt project information platform showed that two ABS projects under Ant’s display status were approved.

However, these methods cannot solve the problem of joint loans with banks. The bank follows the ants and provides money to the ants, and everyone who has money makes it together.

On November 2, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission promulgated new regulations on online loans. The balance of microfinance companies operating online microfinance business through bank loans, shareholder loans and other non-standard financing forms shall not exceed 1 times their net assets; The balance of funds deposited through the issuance of bonds, asset securitization products and other standardized forms of debt assets shall not exceed 4 times its net assets. In a single joint loan, the proportion of capital contribution of a small loan company operating online small loan business shall not be less than 30%.

This puts Ali facing huge financial pressure.

“China Fund News” reported that on the basis of 1.8 trillion joint loans, Ant Group’s corresponding on-balance sheet loan balance is at least 540 billion yuan, much higher than the current 36.2 billion yuan on-balance sheet loan balance. According to the principle of up to 5 times the leverage of small loan companies’ on-balance sheet loans, and including other current on-balance sheet assets, Ant’s small loan companies’ capital needs to be expanded to 140 billion yuan, which is much higher than the current Huabei and Bibai companies. The total registered capital is 35.8 billion yuan.

Ant’s joint loan requires supplementary funds. The source of funds can be ABS, or shareholders’ capital increase or the introduction of strategic investment.

Ant’s funds collapsed.

Immediately, Ali ABS interest rates rose immediately.

Ants may think that they are just an intermediary agency, but the parties do not recognize it. Some people believe that ants are essentially highly leveraged finance. If they continue to develop in this way, they will become a poisonous ant. In the end, risk spreads until it becomes uncontrollable. Excessive use of leverage will make ants become a financial perpetual motion machine.

On December 8, 2020, Mr. Guo Shuqing delivered a speech at the Singapore Fintech Festival.

Guo Shuqing affirmed the rapid progress of financial technology, but mainly pointed out that the financial technology industry has the characteristics of “winner takes all”. Large technology companies often use data monopoly advantages to hinder fair competition and obtain excess returns. Traditional antitrust laws cannot rule these companies. .

These new types of “big to fail” are risky. They dominate the payment market, master data, and have the characteristics of infrastructure. These infrastructures involve public interest and should belong to the government.

It seems that the time has come to fulfill the handover promise. Soon, the infrastructure and basic data will be handed in, and capital must be added.

Ants fold their feet and may trip over elephants.

Mr. Guo Shuqing deserves our focus.

Rip the unspoken rules Ali’s first war

Ali faces a critical turning point.

Imagine that in the winter five years ago, Ali and the State Administration for Industry and Commerce made a head-on and ended with a dramatic open suspense film.

This time, I am afraid it will not be so easy.

Everything is different from five years ago.

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On January 23, 2015, the State Administration for Industry and Commerce released the “Targeted Monitoring Results of Online Traded Commodities in the Second Half of 2014”, which stated that Taobao’s authenticity rate was only 37.25%.

This stick stabbed the hornet’s nest.

At 14:00 on January 27th, Taobao published “The Voice of a Post-80s Taobao Shop Xiaoer” on its official Weibo, using the genius of the shop Xiaoer to write directly.

The attitude of the State Administration for Industry and Commerce is worth pondering.

Take a look at the report at the time.

At 22:00 on the evening of January 27, the State Administration for Industry and Commerce responded to the “Taobao genuine product rate of 37.25%”, stating that the standards were unified and the third party was entrusted to monitor. Targeted monitoring is an important work method to assess market risks and warn of illegal operations.

On the morning of January 28th, the State Administration for Industry and Commerce published the “White Paper on Administrative Guidance to Alibaba Group” on its official website, pointing out that Alibaba platforms have lax access control, poor product information review, and chaotic management of sales behavior. Five major problems, including flaws in credit evaluation and inadequate control of internal staff, use an idiom to raise the carbuncle legacy.

The State Administration for Industry and Commerce has a strict attitude, and Taobao does not recognize it at all. At 14:00 on the same day, Taobao issued a statement stating that Liu Hongliang, the director of the Internet Supervision Department, had improper procedures and emotional enforcement, and decided to file a formal complaint with the State Administration for Industry and Commerce.

It’s so unusual to be so tense, torn and to point at a specific official.

On January 29, the Ministry of Commerce and Xinhua News Agency ended. The Ministry of Commerce held a press conference. Spokesperson Shen Danyang said that the State Administration for Industry and Commerce notified the online shopping targeted monitoring report for the second half of 2014, and related companies raised objections. The Ministry of Commerce paid close attention to this issue. Shen Danyang expressed that it would increase the efforts to rectify e-commerce. Xinhua News Agency detailed the nine major pain points of China’s e-commerce, and pointed it directly at Taobao.

On the same day, Taobao merchants questioned it. The results of the random inspection by the State Administration for Industry and Commerce: There are no fakes, please let us understand. Xiaoer and merchants are Ali’s related groups, and behind this is Ali’s attitude.

There are several rounds of battle back and forth on the bright side, and long-term undercurrents surging from behind. The State Administration for Industry and Commerce even said Ali was arrogant.

Jack Ma’s attitude left room for change, expressing his willingness to crack down on fakes. The fakes were not caused by Taobao, but he was destined to bear grievances and responsibilities.

When Ali fought against industry and commerce, the stock price evaporated tens of billions of dollars, and American lawyers encouraged a class action lawsuit against BABA.

The capital market is very important. Industry and Commerce hinted that they wanted to announce it a long time ago, taking into account Ali’s listing needs. After the publication of the white paper, Ali’s stock price plummeted, triggering a class action lawsuit. But Ali’s attitude is like this, is it tolerable or unbearable? But what about American class actions?

After that, it turned round and turned sharply.

At 18:00 on January 28, 2015, the State Administration for Industry and Commerce website deleted the “White Paper on Administrative Guidance to Alibaba Group”, and the link to the original text could not be opened the next day.

On January 30, 2015, Director Zhang Mao of the State Administration for Industry and Commerce met with Ma Yun. One party expressed cooperation with the government in cracking down on counterfeiting. The spokesperson of the other party introduced the administrative guidance carried out by the State Administration for Industry and Commerce on Alibaba Group. The White Paper on Administrative Guidance Work is the meeting record of the symposium, not a white paper, and the record has no legal effect.

In the Great Reconciliation of the Century, the people who eat melons were shocked that the melon fell to the ground.

This reconciliation revealed a lot of weird auras. Ali was so tough with an unusual background, and he could still retreat from the cusp of the storm. At that time, China and some people really needed Ali, and Ali had a certain truth, but he was also confident.

What about the business side? The white paper is very weird. Take a ferry. The white paper is another name for an important document or report officially published by the government or parliament with a white cover. As an official document, it represents the government’s position, paying attention to clear facts, clear position, standardized writing, concise writing, and no literary color. Even the white paper can be turned into a meeting record, which is simply unclear.

The propaganda of industry and commerce is probably targeted.

At that time, Liu Hongliang, Director of the Market Regulation Department of the State Administration for Industry and Commerce, who was at the center of the vortex, cut into China’s e-commerce field very early, and was scooped up by all kinds of skins, even including in the symposium repeatedly emphasizing that his annual salary is not as high as that of others. Up.

How about Liu Hongliang? No treatment, no promotion, and still doing familiar things.

Relevant departments are closely watching, Ali’s strength, and deep throats from all walks of life, and the dissatisfaction of relevant departments has been revealed.

The final result is that the provincial bureau cuts in, one is to carry a pot, and the other is that everyone is more familiar and cooperation is smoother.

On March 29, 2017, Zhejiang Administration for Industry and Commerce and Alibaba Group signed a deepening strategic cooperation agreement to jointly launch the “Alibaba Big Data Interactive Platform for Industry and Commerce”, which became the implementation of the “Regarding Strengthening the Fight against Infringement of Intellectual Property Rights and Manufacturing and Selling Counterfeit and Inferior Products under the New Situation Work Opinions” specific actions.

This is a huge event. In hindsight, it is nonsense to elevate what was then to a new stage of the rule of law, the victory of the market economy, and so on. It’s just the first round of the game.

Sometimes, let the bullet fly for a while before you know what it means.