Monthly Archive: January 2021

Apple’s single quarter revenue exceeds 100 billion US dollars

In the fourth quarter of last year, Apple’s revenue exceeded $100 billion for the first time, with sales in Greater China up 57%.

Apple's single quarter revenue exceeds 100 billion US dollars

In the shadow of the epidemic, apple still handed over a better than expected financial report.


On January 28, Apple released its first quarter results for fiscal year 2021. According to the report, the company’s net revenue in the first quarter was US $111.439 billion, up 21% from US $91.819 billion in the same period last year, setting the latest record in the history of the company. The net profit was US $28.755 billion, up 29% from US $22.236 billion in the same period last year. Diluted earnings per share were $1.68, up 35% from $1.25 a year earlier.


Among them, the net revenue of Greater China was US $21.313 billion, up 56.97% from US $13.578 billion in the same period last year. It is worth noting that in the context of stock market competition, brand is still the relationship between the ebb and flow. On the same day, IDC and canalys released the global smartphone sales report for the fourth quarter of 2020. According to IDC report, in the fourth quarter of 2020, apple, Samsung, Xiaomi, oppo and Huawei ranked the top five in global smartphone sales. Under the pressure of US sanctions, Huawei became the only one in the top five whose sales declined. Its fourth quarter shipment volume was 32.3 million units, down 42.4% from a year earlier.


Wang Xi, China Research Manager of IDC, told the 21st century economic report that with the continuous change of the external environment, the market pattern may be reshaped, which will undoubtedly bring development opportunities. This requires the industry participants not only to start from the change of demand side, but also to consider the competition for production capacity from the perspective of competition, comprehensively judge and dynamically adjust the market strategy, step by step in the face of variables, strive for progress in stability, and explore their own certainty in uncertainty. “We think the recovery of mobile phone market will accelerate based on the stable growth of demand.”


Apple’s Chinese dividend


Last year, the global mobile phone market was affected by the epidemic. According to the report released by IDC, the annual global mobile phone shipment in 2020 was 1292.2 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 5.9% compared with 1372.6 million units in 2019. Canalys data also shows that global mobile phone shipments in 2020 will be 1264.7 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 7% compared with 1366.7 million units in 2019.


Despite the decline in 2020, the progress of market recovery is impressive, especially in China. As the world’s second largest economy, China has become one of the most important markets for multinational giants. The importance of China’s market has been further highlighted at a time when the developed economies such as the United States and Europe have not yet shaken off the impact of the epidemic.


In the fourth quarter of last year, Apple’s revenue exceeded $100 billion for the first time, with sales in Greater China up 57%. By region, international sales accounted for 64% of Apple’s revenue. Its sales in Greater China fell 29% in the third quarter and rose 57% to $21.3 billion.


Although its sales in Europe, America and other regions have also seen rapid growth, its performance is much worse than that in Greater China. Data show that its growth rate in the Americas is only 12%, while in Europe it is only 17%. The surge in sales in China undoubtedly plays an important role in Apple’s revenue breakthrough of US $100 billion.


Since the first iPhone in 2007, Apple has launched 21 mobile phones. Since 2015, iPhone sales have begun to decline. Since 2018, the sales volume of Apple series products in China has declined seriously. In the fourth quarter of 2018, Apple’s shipment decreased by about 3 million units, a year-on-year decrease of about 22%. Throughout the year, iPhone shipments dropped from 36.7 million in 2017 to 34.2 million in 2018.


But the market turned around last year. Tim Cook, chief executive of apple, said that the upgrading of iPhone users in the Chinese market has set an all-time record. “The performance of iPhone in China is very good. Like the rest of the world, there are also record upgrading behaviors. Because China’s 5g construction is advancing very fast, the vast majority of models sold in the Chinese market are 5g models. ”


The market pattern has changed


Some analysts believe that Apple’s strong recovery, to some extent, is to seize the high-end market share from Huawei. IDC report shows that in the fourth quarter of 2020, the ranking of the top five manufacturers has changed significantly. Driven by the iPhone 12 series, apple returned to the top with 90.1 million units. This created the highest single quarter shipment record of manufacturers, with a year-on-year growth of 22.2% and occupying 23.4% of the market share; Samsung ranked second with 73.9 million units and 19.1% of the market share; Xiaomi ranked third with 43.3 million units and 11.2% of the market share; oppo ranked fourth with 33.8 million units and 8.8% of the market share.


Under the pressure of U.S. sanctions, Huawei continued to suffer, with a sharp year-on-year decline of 42.4%, while another organization’s forecast was not very optimistic. A few days ago, the semiconductor research office of trendforce ranked Q4 as a global smartphone manufacturer. It believed that Apple would reach the top with 21.1% of the market share, Samsung would be second with 17.7% of the market share, and the smartphone market would pick up sharply in 2021, but Huawei could not hold the top six position.


The reason is still the shortage of chips in the supply chain. Nabila popal, director of global mobile device research at IDC, said that many factors are driving the recovery of the smartphone market, including suppressed market demand, continuous promotion of 5g devices on the supply side, active promotional activities and discounts, as well as the popularity of mobile phones in low and middle price segments. It seems that manufacturers are ready for the second blockade to ensure that there are appropriate channels to meet the orders of end consumers.


In fact, due to the blockade, people’s spending on leisure, tourism, dining out and other fields has decreased, while consumers’ spending on almost all smart devices, including smart phones, has increased, and smart phones also benefit from it.


Even if the industry recovers, how many opportunities are left for Huawei? In an interview with the 21st Century Business Herald, people in the industry who did not want to be named believed that from the perspective of supply chain and operation, the possibility of lifting Huawei’s ban on chips in the United States this year is very small. If Huawei fails to obtain 5g chip supply and stops publishing and selling new products for one to two years, it will be in a state of shock for the rapidly changing technology industry. Therefore, it is a good solution to seek divestiture or other cooperation under the continuous change of market pattern.

When it comes to Huawei, the White House is still familiar

At the White House news conference held on the 27th, the words of the current White House spokesman Jen psaki made people return to the era of the trump administration as if they were traveling through time and space. She made it clear to reporters that the Biden administration will continue to work hard to protect the U.S. telecommunications network from the threat of “untrusted suppliers” and name Huawei.


Just one day before the White House made the above statement, Raymond Biden’s candidate for commerce secretary declined to promise to keep Huawei and other Chinese enterprises on the US trade “blacklist” at the nomination confirmation hearing.


When it comes to Huawei, the White House is still familiar with it: it claims to be “untrustworthy and a security threat”. When answering questions, pusaki has been bending his head to read manuscripts and taking video shots

When it comes to Huawei, the White House is still familiar

On the 27th local time, a reporter mentioned the speech made by Raymond, the candidate for commerce minister, at the hearing the day before, and then asked whether this represented the Biden government’s “nuanced way” in dealing with the issue of China.


“Here, I would like to state our position. Let’s be clear. ” After hearing the question, White House spokesman pusaki took out the prepared manuscript and read it according to the book.


In her reply, she used the words frequently mentioned during Trump’s term – “untrusted supplier”, “security threat”, and cited Huawei as an example.


Pusaki went on to say that the Biden administration will “ensure that the U.S. telecommunications network does not use equipment from untrusted suppliers, cooperate with allies to ensure the security of its telecommunications network, and invest in expanding the production of telecommunications equipment by trusted U.S. and allied companies.”.


Huawei declined to comment, and the Chinese Embassy in the US did not immediately respond to a request for comment, Reuters reported Thursday.


When it comes to Huawei, the White House is familiar with it: a screenshot of a Reuters report claiming to be “untrustworthy and a security threat.”


It is worth mentioning that “untrustworthy supplier” was widely used in the trump administration. Pompey o, former Secretary of state of the United States, concocted the so-called “clean 5g network plan” and a “clean 5g list” on this basis, requiring that all 5g communication paths in and out of U.S. diplomatic facilities should not use “untrustworthy” suppliers.

When it comes to Huawei, the White House is still familiar

While playing up the so-called “cyber threat” from China, Pompeo also visited Czech Republic, UK, Sweden and other countries one after another. He demanded that governments and operators abandon Huawei equipment in 5g network construction.


In addition, a number of Chinese enterprises represented by Huawei have always been targeted by the trump government, and frequently suffered groundless suppression on the grounds of “security threat”. In May last year, the US Department of Commerce officially included Huawei in the “entity list” and prohibited US enterprises from selling relevant technologies and products to China.


Reuters said that how the new Biden administration will deal with Huawei’s problems has been pending.


Gina ramondo, the commerce secretary nominated by US President Biden, attended the Senate confirmation hearing on the 26th local time. At the hearing, ramondo refused to promise to keep Huawei and other Chinese companies on the “black list” of US trade, and did not disclose how to implement the trade rules and tariff policies formulated by the former government, which was sharply criticized by several Republican congressmen.


Michael McCaul, a Republican member of the US House of Representatives, issued a statement on the 27th, calling for the Senate to freeze Raymond’s nomination process before the Biden administration gives a clear answer on whether it plans to keep Huawei on the “blacklist”.


The Senate Commerce Committee will vote on February 3 on Raymond’s nomination as U.S. Commerce Secretary.


Shen Yi, a professor in the Department of international politics at Fudan University, previously told that from the refusal of the US Secretary of Commerce’s nominees to promise to keep Huawei and other Chinese companies on the US trade “blacklist”, it can be seen that compared with the period of the trump administration, there is room for the Biden administration to loosen its China policy. He also pointed out that the policy adjustment (of Biden administration) will take time, “we need to be patient and see more how they do it than how they say it.”.

Central bank returns 100 billion yuan

The overnight interest rate approached 3%, and the central bank returned 100 billion yuan of funds.


In the pre Festival stall where the Central Bank continues to collect large amount of net funds, the market funds are even tighter. On January 27, the weighted average interest rates of overnight repo (gr001) and 7-day repo (gr007) of interbank deposit financial institutions continued to rise, approaching 3%. The overnight interest rate once exceeded 3%, reaching the highest level in six years since 2015. The “upside down” trend of gc001 and gc007 interest rates of reverse repo varieties of exchange treasury bonds continued to expand, with gc001 interest rate rising above 5%.

The central bank's net withdrawal for three consecutive days

Today’s tightening of funds is not only affected by the market demand for funds before the festival, but also driven by the central bank’s liquidity supply contraction. On January 27, the central bank announced that fiscal expenditure increased sharply near the end of the month, and carried out 180 billion yuan of seven day reverse repurchase operation. As 280 billion yuan of seven day reverse repurchase expired on that day, it realized a net return of 100 billion yuan of liquidity.


This is the central bank’s net withdrawal of funds for three consecutive days this week, with the total amount of net withdrawal funds reaching 418.5 billion yuan. Tight funds, as well as the central bank’s less than expected liquidity investment, make the bond market continue to fall. However, many analysts believe that monetary policy will not turn too fast, and there will be no systematic tightening. The current reduction of liquidity investment is to stabilize the rapid upward leverage of the bond market in the early stage, and the follow-up market may usher in the warmth across the Spring Festival. The central bank is expected to increase liquidity investment to escort the capital demand across the Spring Festival.


The rise of leverage in the bond market led the central bank to tighten short-term liquidity investment


The market’s feeling on the tightening of the central bank’s short-term liquidity supply only began last week. During the period from the exposure of individual credit default events in the bond market at the end of last year to the beginning of this year, in order to stabilize the market expectation, the market ushered in a small week of continuous easing of capital.


Looking back on the operation of the just concluded round of small easing cycle, the central bank temporarily launched 200 billion MLF on November 30, and continued to do 950 billion MLF in December, and restarted 14 day reverse repurchase to protect the cross-year capital. Under the care of the central bank, the capital side will maintain a relatively loose trend from December 2020 to early January 2021, and the overnight interest rate will continue to drop below 1%.


But why did this round of easing end in early January, when the market ushered in the large net return of funds from the central bank for several consecutive days?


Liu Deng, investment manager of the financial management department of BOCOM’s financial management special account, told the securities times and China securities company that the fund side was relatively loose some time ago. The overnight repo rate once continued at 1%, and the bull market of stocks and bonds lasted for nearly a month. Such loose fund side led to the transaction amount of inter-bank mortgage repo once climbing to around 4 trillion yuan, indicating that the leverage ratio of the bond market has increased; In addition to the recent sharp rise in the “core assets” of the stock market and the house prices of the first tier cities, the central bank has made a lot of small operations of “5 billion yuan” and “2 billion yuan” in the open market, which is the main reason for the central bank’s recent marginal tightening of liquidity investment in the open market.


Wang Yifeng, chief banking analyst of Everbright Securities, also told China Securities Times and securities dealers that under the loose capital environment, the market is more optimistic about the future liquidity expectation, and is more inclined to increase the yield by allocating short-term debt and leverage, which stimulates the leverage behavior in the bond market, resulting in faster downward speed of short-term debt interest rate and steeper yield curve. It can be seen that in the first ten days of January 2021, the daily transaction scale of overnight pledge repo (R001) in the whole inter-bank market continued to rise, with an average daily scale of 4.22 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the average level of 3.11 trillion yuan in the fourth quarter of 2020, indicating that institutions are more willing to allocate bonds through leverage.

The central bank's net withdrawal for three consecutive days

Financial asset bubbles attract further attention


In addition to the rapid rise of leverage ratio in the bond market, Wang Yifeng believes that the sharp fluctuation of asset prices is also the main reason for the central bank’s focus. At the beginning of the year, the new development fund was hot, the real estate prices in some areas rose rapidly, the funds silted up in the field of virtual economy, and the asset price risk increased.


In January 25th, Ma Jun, a member of the monetary policy committee of the central bank, put forward the “stock market and some regional real estate market bubbles have emerged, and the monetary policy should be moderately shifted”, which triggered the market’s concern about the shift of monetary policy. The stock debt of the following day has been adjusted to a certain extent. But in fact, many analysts say that Ma Jun’s view is personal, not a signal that monetary policy is about to “turn” in an all-round way, but rather a reminder of asset price risk.


Interestingly, the market only paid attention to Ma Jun’s statement that “monetary policy should be moderately changed”, but ignored his suggestion that monetary policy should not be changed too fast, and thought that it was reasonable to control the growth rate of broad money (M2) at around 9% this year. Since last year’s base has been very high, it is not a small number for M2 to increase by 8% ~ 9% on this basis.


What kind of expectation does the upside down interest rate reflect?


Although in recent days, the market generally feels that the funds are tight, but the expectation for follow-up funds is still relatively optimistic. This is reflected in the overnight interest rate approaching the 7-day interest rate, and even the “upside down” capital price trend.


Before the press release, the overnight Shibor rate on January 27 was 2.97%, the 7-day Shibor rate was 2.969%, the gc001 rate was 3.955%, and the gc007 rate was 3.785%.


“When funds are tight, overnight and 7-day weighted interest rates will be similar, or even more than 7-day weighted interest rates.” Liu Deng said, on the one hand, overnight is the main transaction varieties. Take January 26, 2021 as an example, the overnight trading volume between banks is about 2.53 trillion yuan, while the 7-day varieties are less than 0.50 trillion yuan. Overnight trading volume has always been the main trading volume. When the capital is tight, the overnight interest rate with greater demand is easy to fluctuate. On the other hand, it also shows that the market does not expect the interest rate of funds to continue to rise, so it gives priority to overnight fund transfer.


Liu Deng said that today (January 27) morning funds interest rate is still high, but near noon funds eased. It is expected that the overall capital level will fluctuate before the Spring Festival, because the general capital level will be disturbed before the Spring Festival or at the end of the quarter. Especially in this year’s Spring Festival, many residents choose to “celebrate the Spring Festival on the spot”, which will bring some uncertainty to the cash withdrawal before the Spring Festival. However, with the central bank’s subsequent liquidity arrangements for the Spring Festival, the capital level is expected to ease, and there is no reason for the fund interest rate to continue to rise sharply.


On January 27, the reverse repo rate of exchange bonds fell at the end of the day, with gc001 falling to 3.925%, reaching a peak of 5.9%.


No need to be too pessimistic about central bank’s short-term liquidity investment


Looking forward to the subsequent central bank liquidity investment, many analysts believe that the market disorder is too pessimistic.


Wang Yifeng believes that there is no need for the market to worry too much about the continued tightening of capital. As the epidemic prevention and control becomes stricter this year, the reduction of the flow of residents returning to their hometown will lead to a drop in cash demand, which is good for the capital before the Spring Festival. Yi Gang, the governor of the people’s Bank of China, has clearly released the policy signal that “we will not withdraw from supporting policies too early”, which may bring warmth to the follow-up market across the Spring Festival.


“Just as last week’s response to the impact of tax factors, the central bank increased its liquidity investment. As the Spring Festival approaches, it is expected that the central bank will make arrangements for liquidity. According to the current market situation, it is expected that the investment in the open market will still be the main one. ” Liu Deng said.


Mingming, deputy director of CITIC Securities Research Institute, said that from historical experience and logic, if the central bank comprehensively tightens monetary policy, stock and real estate prices will be under pressure, and bonds will not be spared. However, judging from the many signals released by the central bank recently, it is relatively certain that monetary policy will continue to support the real economy and ensure the stability and consistency of the policy without a sharp turn, and the probability of comprehensive tightening is small. In the short term, there is no need to worry too much about the change of monetary policy. With reference to the performance of funds before and after the Spring Festival in previous years and the influence of advocating the Spring Festival to celebrate the Spring Festival on the spot this year, we need to pay attention to the expected difference between the follow-up operation of the central bank and the actual feeling of funds.

Behind the “price increase” of E-bike sales in the off-season: rising upstream costs

Recently, a number of E-bike brands have issued notices intensively, saying that their products will rise in price in an all-round way. Behind the price increase is the purchase price rise of motor, tire, frame and other parts, which promotes the rise of manufacturing cost of electric bicycle. In response, a reporter from Securities Daily asked Yadi holdings, a Hong Kong listed company, about the news, but did not get a reply from the company.


Tan Chengping, senior analyst of Analysys International, told this reporter: “there are various reasons for the price rise of electric bicycles. First, since the implementation of the new national standard in April 2019, the transition period of over standard vehicles in some provinces and cities officially ended in 2021. Therefore, in order to meet the policy requirements, the enterprises optimize the materials and production process, while the cost of upstream raw materials continues to increase, which brings great pressure to the production Second, due to the impact of the domestic epidemic situation and the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday at the end of the year, the prevention and control is tightened, the supply of transport capacity is reduced, and the logistics cost is rising; third, driven by many favorable factors such as the new national standard, sharing, take out, express delivery, export, the demand will usher in explosive growth in 2020, and the industry will be in a state of short supply. ”


With the epidemic situation under control in China, is there any incentive for the price increase of e-bikes? Is the price of some brands of electric bicycles rising, or is it a common phenomenon in the industry?

Behind the "price increase" of E-bike sales in the off-season: rising upstream costs

The sales of an E-bike store in Shunyi District, Beijing, told reporters that it is the off-season for E-bike sales, and some stores have closed down due to the epidemic situation and Spring Festival, but they have not heard of the price increase. Whether the price will rise in the future depends on the situation after opening the store.


At the same time, “Securities Daily” reporter visited a number of E-bike sales stores. Among them, near Beijing West Railway Station in Fengtai District of Beijing, Ms. Li, the manager of a Lvyuan E-bike sales shop, told the reporter: “the sales price of my E-bike has not gone up. During the epidemic period, the sales volume is not good. It’s good not to reduce the price. How can the price go up?” She told reporters that during the epidemic period, the sales of e-bikes were not good, the goods were all purchased half a year ago, and there was no purchase in the near future.


Mr. Tan, manager of a sales store for No. 9 electric bicycle, told reporters that the electric bicycle in the store will rise by 200 yuan per vehicle from January 1 this year. “As the background technology of No. 9 E-bike is constantly upgraded, the new system will come out, the E-bike will be updated to the latest system, and the price will rise.”


Ms. Yan, the agent of Yadi electric bicycle, told reporters that she had been informed that the sales price of each vehicle would increase by 100 yuan from January 1 this year.


Although a number of E-bike sales stores said there was a price increase, some stores said they could reduce the price again in the form of discounts.


Behind the price rise of E-bike is the rising cost of upstream parts. Since May last year, the purchase prices of frame, tire, motor and other parts have continued to rise. Compared with the beginning of last year, the prices of motor, tire and frame have increased by 20%, the prices of plastic parts have increased by 35%, the prices of cables have increased by 25%, and the production costs of electric bicycle manufacturers have generally increased by more than 20%.


In response to the price rise of electric bicycle parts — tires, a securities representative of a listed tire company who did not want to be named told Securities Daily: “the price rise of tires is driven by the price rise of raw materials. Raw materials account for more than 70% of the cost of tire production. Up to now, natural rubber has increased by more than 30% compared with the beginning of 2020, and carbon black has increased by about 70% 。”


The reporter of Securities Daily learned from the official website of bicycle association that the latest data shows that from January to September 2020, the output of Enterprises above Designated Size of electric bicycles will be 22.853 million, with a year-on-year increase of 30.3%. The business income of Enterprises above the designated size of E-bike was 67.76 billion yuan, an increase of 26.6% year on year, and the profit was 2.63 billion yuan, an increase of 30.4% year on year.

New rules related to hundreds of millions of policyholders quick check!

“You see, our company is very solvent.” When insurance salesmen promote sales, they always emphasize this sentence to show that their company is reliable. Solvency is not only related to the operation stability of insurance companies, but also an important core index of insurance supervision. With the implementation of the new solvency rules, insurance companies will face stricter supervision.


The reporter of China first finance and economics learned that, in line with the “second generation of solvency” (China’s risk oriented solvency regulatory system), which was formally implemented in 2016, the new “solvency management regulations of insurance companies” (hereinafter referred to as the “management regulations”) revised after 13 years was issued on January 25 and will be formally implemented on March 1.


According to the “threshold” of solvency compliance in the “administrative provisions”, the reporter of China first finance and economics combed the latest solvency reports of nearly 200 insurance institutions published by China Insurance Industry Association, and found that if the latest published reports of insurance institutions were taken as reference, six insurance companies were not up to the standard at present, namely: Changan liability insurance, Centennial life insurance, Junkang life insurance and Qianhai life insurance In addition to the negative solvency adequacy ratio of China France life insurance, the other reasons are that the comprehensive risk rating results are below category B. In addition, Anxin property insurance was punished by the regulatory authorities for its negative solvency adequacy ratio in October last year and stopped its new auto insurance business. Therefore, its indicators at the end of October also failed to meet the standard.

New rules related to hundreds of millions of policyholders quick check!

Seven insurance companies fail to meet the standard


Compared with the version under the “solvency generation” in 2008, the biggest change of the “administrative provisions” is to expand the solvency regulatory indicators from the single “solvency adequacy ratio no less than 100%” in the past to three parts: core solvency adequacy ratio, comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio and comprehensive risk rating.


According to the administrative provisions, insurance companies need to meet the three major requirements of core solvency adequacy ratio not less than 50%, comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio not less than 100%, and comprehensive risk rating of class B and above.


According to the latest solvency report of nearly 200 insurance institutions disclosed by China Insurance Industry Association, the reporter of China first finance and economics found that the performance of six insurance institutions in the third quarter of 2020 did not meet the above standards, including one property insurance company of Chang’an liability insurance company and five life insurance companies of Centennial life insurance, Junkang life insurance, Qianhai life insurance, Sino French life insurance and Bohai life insurance. The reporter inquired about the official websites of the six insurance companies. As of press release, no solvency report for the fourth quarter of 2020 has been released.


The comprehensive risk ratings of the six insurance companies disclosed in the third quarter (i.e. the second quarter of 2020) are all below category B, so they are not up to the standard line of the “management regulations”. Among them, Sino French life insurance is the lowest grade D. From the 50% and 100% standard line of core solvency adequacy ratio and comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio, the other five of the above six insurance companies are in the standard state, except for China France life insurance, which has been running out of liquidity for a long time.


Comprehensive risk rating is related to many factors, including solvency adequacy ratio, liquidity coverage ratio, operational risk, capital utilization risk and so on. According to the solvency reports of the above six insurance companies, there are various reasons why the comprehensive risk rating is not up to standard. For example, Chang’an liability insurance explained that it was due to the temporary decline of its liquidity coverage index at the end of the second quarter; Qianhai life insurance and Bohai life insurance respectively said that it was due to its own operational risk and capital use risk; Centennial life insurance and Junkang Life Insurance Co., Ltd However, it is due to the fact that the comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio is not continuously higher than 120%. However, due to the long-term absence of capital fund, China France life insurance company has experienced liquidity depletion since April 2017, and its staffing is insufficient, almost paralyzed, so it is in urgent need of capital fund “blood” resurrection.



(source: according to the public information of China first finance and Economics)


In addition to the six insurance companies, although the Solvency Index of Anxin property insurance is still in the state of reaching the standard in the third quarter of 2020, the decision on administrative supervision measures issued by the CIRC at the beginning of this year revealed its “Waterloo” in solvency in October. According to the data in the letter of decision, the core and comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio of Anxin property insurance at the end of October 2020 was – 125.7%, which was ordered by the regulatory authorities to increase capital, stop accepting new business of auto insurance, and reduce the salary of directors, supervisors and senior managers by 20%.


In addition, it is clear in the administrative provisions that insurance companies whose core solvency adequacy ratio is lower than 60% or comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio is lower than 120% will be the key verification objects. From this perspective, the comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio of 120% at the end of the third quarter of Fude life insurance is just “stepping on the line”, while the comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio of Taibao Allianz health and other companies in the third quarter of 2020 is not too much higher than the “threshold” of key attention.


What will happen if solvency is not up to standard? The management regulation also gives the answer. For the companies whose solvency adequacy ratio is not up to the standard, the regulatory measures are divided into the necessary measures and the measures selected according to the risk causes. The measures that must be taken include: regulatory talks; requiring insurance companies to submit plans to prevent the deterioration of solvency adequacy ratio or improve risk management; limiting the salary level of directors, supervisors and senior managers; limiting dividends to shareholders, etc. In addition to the above-mentioned necessary measures, the regulatory authorities can also, according to the specific reasons for their failure to meet the solvency adequacy ratio standard, take such measures as ordering them to increase capital, ordering them to stop some or all of their new businesses, ordering them to adjust their business structure, and restricting the establishment of new branches. For those whose solvency has not been significantly improved or further deteriorated after taking the above measures, the regulatory authorities shall take such regulatory measures as taking over and applying for bankruptcy in accordance with the law.


For class C and D insurance companies whose core solvency adequacy ratio and comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio are up to the standard, but one or more of the operational risk, strategic risk, reputation risk and liquidity risk are greater or more serious, the regulatory authorities should take regulatory measures according to the risk causes and risk degree.


What is the impact of solvency on consumers?


Solvency is related to the operation stability of insurance companies, so it is particularly concerned by insurance consumers.


If the solvency of the insurance company is not up to the standard, what is the impact on the insured consumers? Can insurance cover it? Do consumers need to pay attention to the Solvency Index of insurance companies when they take out insurance?


Wang Xiangnan, deputy director of the Research Center for insurance and economic development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told China first finance and economics that in the solvency assessment, the assets, liabilities and owner’s equity of insurance companies of various types and periods are made conservative and robust assumptions, so the solvency of insurance companies is slightly substandard, which basically does not mean that they are difficult to fulfill their policy responsibilities normally. China’s insurance regulation is comprehensive, strict and more forward-looking, so the insurance companies that fail to meet the standards can usually survive the difficult period and return to normal by modifying insurance products, adjusting investment fields, replenishing company capital, improving management skills and changing development strategies.


“In addition, China’s insurance license is still relatively scarce, so insurance companies have a general level of early warning of repayment, which should be able to attract new shareholders to inject capital quickly. If the regulatory authorities expect that the repayment difficulties of an insurance company are serious or will continue, they can take over the company and ensure its normal operation. There have been several successful experiences in this respect. Since the resumption of the insurance industry, the policy responsibilities of China’s insurance industry have been fully fulfilled. China established a protection fund system in 2005, which provides a high level of protection for consumers’ policy rights and interests. ” Wang Xiangnan said.


However, Wang Xiangnan reminded that insurance consumers should also pay attention to the company’s solvency, because all areas of the financial industry are breaking the “rigid cashing”, and “it can not be ruled out that one day in the future, when rectifying or clearing the problem insurance companies, their promised excessive investment income will be” 10% off. ”


So, is the higher the solvency adequacy ratio, the better? A senior person in the insurance industry told China first finance and economics that the solvency adequacy ratio is a “time point”. Under the “second generation of solvency”, business structure, business volume, capital and other factors will affect the solvency adequacy ratio. For example, at the end of the quarter, when an insurance company just increases its capital, the solvency adequacy ratio will be very high at the end of the quarter. However, the higher the solvency adequacy ratio is, the better it is. The persistently high solvency adequacy ratio may also indicate that the company’s capital utilization efficiency is not high. When sorting out the solvency report, the reporter of China first finance found that the comprehensive risk rating of companies with solvency adequacy ratio of more than 1000% is not all class A.


Wang Xiangnan also believes that when the solvency of an insurance company is at a high level, no matter how high it is, it will hardly affect its ability to fulfill its policy obligations; some policies have a long term and choose a company with high solvency when purchasing, so the solvency of the company may not be very high in decades. Therefore, it is appropriate for consumers to pay attention to solvency. For those consumers who have already been insured, if they find or expect that the company’s solvency has problems, it is recommended not to surrender because the loss of surrender should be greater than that of entering the final liquidation stage.

CAAC: tickets can be returned and changed free of charge during the Spring Festival

In response to the call of the state to reasonably and orderly guide the masses to celebrate the Chinese new year on the spot, minimize the flow of people, and effectively reduce the risk of the spread of the epidemic, the Civil Aviation Administration issued a notice on January 26, specifying that passengers who buy tickets during the Spring Festival from January 28 to March 8 can handle a free refund or at least one rescheduling from 0:00 on January 27.

CAAC: tickets can be returned and changed free of charge during the Spring Festival

The specific rules of refund and rescheduling are as follows: passengers who take the flight from January 28 to February 3 can apply for refund or rescheduling from 0:00 on January 27 to 7 days before the flight takes off; passengers who take the flight from February 4 to March 8 can apply for refund or rescheduling from 0:00 on January 27 to 7 days before the flight takes off. This policy is not applicable to passengers who have applied for refund or rescheduling before 0:00 on January 27.


According to the requirements of CAAC, airlines can formulate specific implementation rules according to the requirements of the notice.


Previously, the Civil Aviation Administration issued the “notice on effectively doing a good job in ticket refund and modification service under the situation of epidemic normalization prevention and control” on January 2, requiring airlines to formulate and issue ticket refund and modification free programs in time, and strengthen information disclosure and publicity in areas with local epidemic. After the notice was issued, the domestic airlines promptly followed up and released the specific implementation plan. The notice issued by the Civil Aviation Administration today aims to respond to the “notice on ensuring the local service for the Chinese New Year” issued by the general office of the CPC Central Committee and the general office of the State Council on January 25, further expanding the scope of application of the free retirement policy and implementing the call for non mobility during the Spring Festival holidays.

Why Baijiu shares again rise?

The Spring Festival is approaching the start of the Spring Festival. The strong demand for Baijiu will help the relevant companies to achieve good results in the first quarter of 2021, and is one of the important reasons for the strong performance of Baijiu stocks.


Why Baijiu shares again rise? Baijiu just needs stronger spring festival.

Why Baijiu shares again rise?

Financial reporter Zhang Jianfeng, Yang Xiuhong, Feng Yiying


In January 25, 2021, the Shanghai stock index hit 3637.10 high points, and the Baijiu stocks before the callback rose again, becoming a major scenic spot for A shares.


As of the end of the day, 18 Baijiu listed companies, 9 companies rose by over 5% share price. Among them, Luzhou Laojiao (000568. SZ), Gujing gongjiu (000596. SZ) and Yanghe shares (002304. SZ) rose strongly, followed by Jinshiyuan (603369. SH) with an increase of 8.49%, while the shares of Guizhou Maotai (600519. SH) and Wuliangye (000858. SZ) rose by 4.57% and 6.81% respectively.


China Baijiu Peng, an analyst with China’s food industry, analyzed the “Baijiu” demand for the Spring Festival. The company’s first quarter results in 2021 will be positive. This is one of the reasons for the strong performance of liquor stocks.


For Baijiu future trend, the market has different views. Some Baijiu Baijiu plate optimistic about the trend of spring, Tianfeng securities food and beverage team believes that spring is the peak season for liquor consumption, Baijiu plate short-term fluctuations do not change to long-term trend.


Some agencies also said that the valuation of Baijiu plate was high in the short term, which reminded investors to pay attention to the risk of callback.


Behind the rebound in liquor stocks is the recent performance of Baijiu Baijiu company in 2020, and the institutional capital. In January 25th, Baijiu, Luzhou Lao Jiao, Jiugui Liquor and Wuliangye four were among the top six listed companies in liquor market. Recently, the announcement of 2020’s performance increase has been released.


From the institutional position, the Baijiu Fund Quarterly Report data released in 2020 recently, the proportion of liquor holding positions in institutional positions increased significantly, and reached a record high.




Baijiu market is coming back? January 25th Baijiu plate staged a wave of tide, the plate market again triggered investor concern.


After a short period of adjustment, Baijiu plate again led A shares in January 25th, and the Baijiu index rose 5.39% in the same day, ranking the first among the major A stock market.


This performance is far better than the market. On the same day, the main indexes of a shares were mixed. The Shanghai index rose 0.48% to 3624.24 points, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.52% to 15710.19 points, and the gem index fell 0.09% to 3355.24 points. However, the turnover of the two cities did not significantly reduce, with the total turnover breaking through trillion yuan again, reaching 1208.3 billion yuan, and the turnover breaking through trillion yuan in 14 of the past 16 trading days.


Baijiu is the one and only industry that has a certain scarcity. This is why the past value investors are willing to buy. Zhuang Hongdong, chairman and manager of cheese fund, told Caijing.


Zhuang Hongdong further said that there were more recent events in the industry, such as the pre holiday sales, the positive signals released by the annual conference of Baijiu enterprises, and collective price increases. The superposition of new fund has created new historical and objective factors. Incremental funds have also been actively allocated to the leading industries, and to some extent, it has boosted the interpretation of Baijiu hot market.


Baijiu liquor Baijiu Baijiu shares also appear to be rising tide, the Yanghe River shares, Gujing Gong liquor, Luzhou Lao Jiao, and Hao technology, and many other liquor stocks or liquor stocks limit.


Baijiu Guizhou Moutai shares hit a new high. The stock rose to 2179.50 yuan / share and closed at 2175 yuan / share, up 4.57% throughout the day, with a total market value of 2.73 trillion yuan.


Since January this year, a number of institutions have raised the target price of Guizhou Maotai to more than 2200 yuan / share, and one of them even raised the target price of Guizhou Maotai to 2739 yuan / share.


Nomura Oriental International recently raised the target price of Guizhou Maotai to 2393.05 yuan / share. It believes that the wholesale price of Guizhou Maotai still has strong support due to tight supply and demand. Taking into account the company’s recent price control measures, it is expected that the company will first increase the volume and raise the price, the overall performance growth is expected to accelerate, and continue to lead the high-end Baijiu market.


Apart from optimism about the trend of Baijiu, the liquor makers are also more optimistic about the spring trend of Baijiu.


CICC recently said that the overall demand for liquor was revived after the outbreak last year, and began in Baijiu. Demand recovery rhythm was Moutai, April Wuliangye, May national cellar, June and the three quarter was a high-end resilient recovery. It is expected that the consumption characteristics and trends of Baijiu will be similar to that of the first half of last year, but the switch from high-end to high-end will be shortened obviously.


The food and beverage team of Tianfeng Securities believes that the consumption upgrading is expected to offset the impact of the epidemic, and the short-term fluctuation will not change to the long-term good trend. The demand side is affected by the epidemic, while Baijiu consumption banquet scene is damaged, but the consumption upgrading trend continues. Supply side, spring is the peak season for liquor consumption, and enterprises ensure the normal payment by raising prices. Therefore, the short-term fluctuation of Baijiu Baijiu plate does not change to a long-term trend.


“Standing at the current point of view, the current two level Baijiu liquor industry valuation is certainly high.” Zhuang Hongdong said: “the performance of the Baijiu side of the liquor industry has been good in the past year, but the capital market has fully reflected the retail market situation. For example, in the expansion of some regional brands outside the province, whether the remote replication can be successfully reflected in the performance remains to be verified, but the secondary market has been affected. The profit risk ratio of liquor industry has been greatly reduced, so we are becoming more conservative in the investment of Baijiu Baijiu, and we also suggest that investors should pay attention to the risk of callback.


Cai Xuefei, a liquor analyst, told the financial reporter that “cannot read the liquor market at all. The only explanation is that the Spring Festival is approaching. The public is still optimistic about the consumption prospects of famous liquor. In the absence of investment channels, a large number of hot money holders of liquor value inflation have pushed up the stock price.”


Performance anticipation


Behind the rebound in liquor stocks is the recent performance of Baijiu Baijiu company in 2020.


In January 25th, Baijiu, Luzhou Lao Jiao, Jiugui Liquor and Wuliangye four were among the top six listed companies in liquor market. Recently, they released their 2020 performance forecasts and reported their good news.


In addition to jishiyuan’s forecast that the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in 2020 will increase by about 6.3% on a year-on-year basis, the other three companies are expected to grow by more than 20% on a year-on-year basis.


Among them, the net profit of Jiugui Liquor in 2020 attributable to shareholders of listed companies increased by 51.92% – 65.28% over the same period of last year, the net profit of Wuliangye in 2020 attributable to shareholders of listed companies increased by about 14% over the same period of last year, and Luzhou Laojiao in 2020 forecasted that the net profit of Shanxi Fenjiu (600809. SH) increased by 41.56% – 55.47% over the same period of last year,


Wind data show that in the first three quarters of 2020, in the 227 industries (four grades and the same below), the Baijiu industry ranked ninety-first in the liquor industry, with a net profit of 9.72% attributable to parent company’s year-on-year increase.


Among them, the operating income increased by more than 10% over the same period, and the total number of listed Baijiu companies was 6. The net profit attributable to the parent company’s shareholders increased by 10% over the same period, and 6. Among them, the year-on-year growth rates of Guizhou Maotai’s operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company were 10.31% and 11.07% respectively, those of Wuliangye were 14.53% and 15.96% respectively, and those of Jiugui Liquor (000799. SZ) were 16.45% and 79.76% respectively.


However, from the above data, the year-on-year growth rate of net profit in 2020 is basically the same as that in the first three quarters of 2020. The growth rate of net profit in Luzhou Laojiao is slightly higher, while that of Jiugui Liquor is more than 10%.


It is worth noting that on January 25, Jinshiyuan (603369. SH), whose stock price soared by 8.49%, recently released the outline of five year strategic plan (2021-2025), saying that it will strive to achieve revenue of more than 10 billion yuan (strive for 15 billion yuan) by 2025. In order to make a good start, the company’s revenue target in 2021 is about 5.9 billion yuan, striving for 6.6 billion yuan. In the first three quarters of 2020, the company’s operating revenue was 4.193 billion yuan.


For Baijiu listed companies in 2021, the market forecast has different views.


Zhu Danpeng told finance and economics reporter that the first quarter results in 2021, the performance of Baijiu listed companies will show strong head enterprises, while the regional Baijiu is affected by the epidemic, and is facing greater performance pressure.


Zhuang Hongdong told the financial reporter that at present, most Baijiu enterprises have raised the goal of double-digit growth in 2021. According to our follow-up observation, considering the background of economic recovery and consumer demand, this goal is more likely to be realized.


Can the reunion last?


Baijiu stock has always been one of the main positions of public offering fund. Agencies for Baijiu plate pursuit of strength has not been reduced, some public funds in the four quarter secretly added. In the fourth quarter of 2020, Baijiu allocation increased by 2.64 percentage points to 15.13%, while the over matching ratio increased from 7.30% in the three quarter of 2020 to 8.88%. The fund’s key positions include Guizhou Maotai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, etc.


Recently, the fourth quarter of the public fund raised the report, according to the Oriental Wealth data, many Baijiu shares are among the top of the public fund.


Among the top 30 stocks in the market value of public fund positions, Guizhou Maotai is the first stock in the public fund position, with a total market value of 167.7 billion yuan, an increase of 46.81% compared with the previous period.


Wuliangye ranked second in the total market value of public fund positions, with a total market value of 122.5 billion yuan, an increase of 46.88% over the previous period.


The total market value of Luzhou Laojiao public fund was 57 billion yuan, up 65.21% compared with the previous period. The total market value of Shanxi Fenjiu public fund was 36.7 billion yuan, up 129.51% compared with the previous period.


About the public offering of Baijiu liquor stocks, Liu Chenming, chief strategist of Tianfeng securities, analyzed that foreign capital began to flow into A shares in 2017, and the logic of Core Company valuation began to change. The preference of foreign capital lies in the stability and sustainability of performance. So, a few Core Company with A shares are most capable of concentrating on Baijiu, condiments, household appliances, medicine and other consumer goods industries.


Under the guidance of foreign capital, more and more domestic funds begin to accept this fixed price logic, and the key role is public funds. In 2020, the scale of public funds will explode, and the rise of core assets will form a spiral acceleration.


Baijiu Baijiu index (LOF), the only liquor index fund in the market, has increased by 60% since the end of the three quarter of 2020, and has rolled over 99% of the market. In the past five years, the index product has also outperformed all active management products.


In CAI Xuefei’s view, because the capital market is too active, it may lead to a kind of blind optimism in the market, thus promoting the collective outbreak of famous liquor. In other words, the economic and epidemic disturbance has accelerated the differentiation trend of the whole industry. The consumption and investment attributes of the national famous liquor have been further strengthened, while the regional famous liquor may have certain value deviation and a certain bubble.

Exports to the United States need to be marked “made in China”

Last year, the trump administration made a small move, issuing an announcement that goods made in Hong Kong must be marked as “made in China” when exported to the United States, instead of “made in Hong Kong”.


On Monday, the Hong Kong government and the United States confronted each other on the matter at a closed door meeting of the World Trade Organization (WTO), and their request for the establishment of an expert group was opposed. However, the report pointed out that the US side can only prevent this one time.


The US side refused the request of the Hong Kong government on the ground that

Exports to the United States need to be marked "made in China"

On January 25, the United States blocked Hong Kong’s request to upgrade a trade dispute left over from the trump era at the WTO. This is also the first WTO trade dispute meeting attended by the United States since Biden took office.


Hong Kong’s exports to the United States need to be marked as “made in China”, and the Hong Kong government and the United States confront each other in the WTO


Report screenshot


A copy of the speech shows that when the US representative delivered a speech at the closed door meeting of the WTO dispute settlement body, he opposed Hong Kong’s request to set up an expert group to adjudicate the origin label dispute.


According to a source quoted by Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post, the US delegation said at the meeting that in view of the transition of the us to a new government, it could not support the request of the relevant expert group.


In response, Hong Kong said that it had taken into account the political situation in the United States, but still considered it necessary to continue to implement the panel’s request.


The Hong Kong delegation also pointed out that the US measures “do not recognize Hong Kong as a separate customs territory and a member of the WTO”. This has caused “unnecessary burden” to Hong Kong enterprises, caused “confusion and worry” to consumers and the market, and damaged “Hong Kong brand”. Moreover, rules of origin should not be used to “achieve political ends.”.


“Only this time”


On 29 June last year, the trump government announced the abolition of Hong Kong’s special status treatment and the suspension of preferential treatment for Hong Kong, including export license exemption, which is different from that of mainland China.


On August 11 of the same year, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection Service announced that “within 45 days from now,” the origin of domestic products exported to the United States “must be marked as” China. “.


After the announcement comes into effect, goods manufactured by Hong Kong companies will be subject to the same tariffs as those of mainland exporters. The Secretary for commerce and economic development, Mr Yau Teng Wah, later said that the US side had extended the implementation date of the new regulation by 45 days to November 9 in response to the request of some industries.


On November 3 last year, Hong Kong launched a dispute at the WTO over this provision of the US government.


It is worth noting that Reuters pointed out on the latest WTO meeting that the US government can only prevent this one time. As a member of the WTO, Hong Kong can make this request again in the WTO next month.


The South China Morning Post also further introduced that it is a common situation that the party receiving the complaint initially refuses the request of the WTO to set up an expert group. Such requests can only be passed by consensus, and the defendant actually has the right of veto.


However, in the second trial, we need to unanimously oppose the formation of an expert group in order to stop this request. Hong Kong can now request a special meeting of the dispute settlement body or wait for the next meeting of the body. By then, the request is likely to be passed.


According to the data of the Hong Kong Trade Development Council, the value of domestic goods exported to the United States in 2019 was US $471 million, accounting for only 0.1% of all the goods sent from Hong Kong.


John marrett, chief analyst of the economist think tank in Hong Kong, analyzes the US government’s small moves and believes that “although this is not a good thing from a macro point of view, it is not so meaningful. Because in general, the value is very small. ”


Wu Hongbin, President of the Hong Kong manufacturers association, told Hong Kong media in August last year that the relevant measures had little impact because Hong Kong’s manufacturing industry accounted for only a small part of its GDP. Moreover, these products are mainly provided locally, and the export volume is relatively small. The main reason is that Hong Kong factories set up factories in the mainland or overseas, and then export their products to the United States.


At that time, the Hong Kong government impolitely criticized the United States for “ignoring Hong Kong’s status as an independent member of the World Trade Organization”. If necessary, it could not rule out taking actions in accordance with the WTO rules to safeguard Hong Kong’s interests.


Observer: waiting for the new US trade representative to take office


In addition to the origin label dispute, the report points out that the closed door meeting of the WTO dispute settlement body held on the 25th is the first time that the United States has the opportunity to intervene in a long-term and active trade dispute and participate in the deadlocked reform negotiation of the WTO supreme appellate body.


Under the leadership of former president trump, Washington blocked the appointment of new judges to the appellate body and tried to force reform, which paralyzed the appellate body.


However, at Monday’s meeting, the Biden administration’s position on the agency remained unchanged, refusing to support the proposal to appoint new judges.


Although the Biden administration has officially taken over trade policy matters, observers do not expect any significant change in the direction of US government policy until the nomination of Chinese American Katherine Tai as US trade representative is confirmed.

It is planned to sell all or part of the assets such as Guangzhou Delta

On the evening of January 25, oufeiguang (002456) announced that the company currently plans to sell all or part of the assets of related subsidiaries, and the scope of the above-mentioned related subsidiaries does not exceed: Guangzhou delta Imaging Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangxi Huiguang Microelectronics Co., Ltd., Nanchang oufeixian Technology Co., Ltd. and Jiangxi Jingrun optics Co., Ltd.


At the same time, oufeiguang clarified the relevant rumors about the sale of related subsidiaries to Lucent precision. On January 21, media reported that Guangzhou Delta, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, would be sold to Lucent precision, ofI said. After verification by the company, the above media reports are untrue. As of the date of this announcement, the company and its subsidiaries have not signed any agreement or reached any preliminary intention with lucent precision.

It is planned to sell all or part of the assets such as Guangzhou Delta

Oufeiguang said that the specific scope of the transaction object (assets or equity), trading partner, transaction method and transaction price of the company’s current transaction are still under discussion, and there is no substantive progress. It is expected that this transaction will not constitute a major asset restructuring as stipulated in the measures for the administration of major asset restructuring of listed companies, and it does not involve related party transactions. There is still great uncertainty in this matter. The company will strictly comply with the requirements of relevant laws and regulations, and timely perform the review procedures and information disclosure obligations according to the progress of the above matters.


On the 21st, media reports said that the subject of oufeiguang South China factory (Guangzhou delta) is subordinate to oufeiguang mobile phone camera module business unit (CCM business unit), which is an integral part of Apple’s supply chain. On September 1, 2020, apple removed ofI light from its supplier list. Since 2021, there will be no new orders from apple.


Affected by the sale of assets and other related rumors, oufeiguang fell more than 7% on January 21 and 22 for two consecutive days. As of the close of January 25, oufeiguang continued to fall by 6.4 percentage points to around 11.12 yuan, and its share price fell to the lowest point since 2020.


On the evening of January 22, oufeiguang released the performance forecast for 2020. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in 2020 will be 810 million yuan to 910 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 59% – 78%; it is estimated that the net profit after deducting non recurring profits and losses will be 715 million yuan to 860 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 123% – 168%.


As for the main reasons for the larger year-on-year increase in net profit, ofI light said that the company’s optical imaging business maintained rapid growth, optical lens production capacity and shipment continued to improve; benefited from the increase in orders from some major customers, tablet computer sales growth and the independent development of Android touch business, touch business structure continued to optimize, and profitability improved significantly; the company continued to strengthen cost control and management In 2020, the impact of non recurring profit and loss on the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is expected to be 50 million to 95 million yuan, mainly due to government subsidies.

Bitcoin’s soaring price makes it difficult to get one card

At present, the most popular commodity of Shenzhen Huaqiangbei is graphics card, which is used to assemble digital currency mining equipment.


In the SEG electronic market, a landmark building in Huaqiangbei, the counters selling computer accessories and repairing computers will not display the latest series of graphics cards. Transactions are often hidden in the dialogue between the counter owner and customers.


“3080, any?”


“How many do you want? More is not necessarily more. ”


Such conversations are repeated every day in the SEG electronics market. Since July last year, the price of bitcoin has been rising fiercely. On January 8 this year, bitcoin broke the $40000 mark, driving the price of digital currency to rise as a whole. With the rise of mining tide, new miners vie for admission, while old miners are busy adding equipment.


The RTX 30 series graphics card with high computing power and friendly price is the hot spot in the eyes of miners. Nicehash, the world’s largest cryptocurrency computing power platform website, has selected the mining graphics card with the best performance. The top two are 30 series graphics cards – 3090 and 3080 models. Bitcoin rose, miners scavenging crazier, graphics card manufacturers limited capacity, there are few spot on the market.


Counter owners are not in a hurry to sell to visitors. Instead, they first give them a “preventive injection” and “if there is, it depends on whether the price is acceptable”.


“People come to ask every day,” said Chen Liang (a pseudonym), who sells graphics cards in SEG electronics market. He said that the graphics card is very out of stock, we have to look for one. For example, if a customer wants five graphics cards, it will take two or three days to find such a quantity, “it’s not necessary to get so many (goods)”.


Bitcoin is limited in supply, and the price of graphics card with limited capacity fluctuates with the price of bitcoin. This time, it’s hard for businesses to predict how long the graphics card thermal energy brought by bitcoin will last. They even don’t know whether they are happy or worried: if they don’t have the goods, they have no price in the market; if they don’t have the goods to hoard, they have less profit space.


One price a day

Bitcoin's soaring price makes it difficult to get one card

“A lot of people buy graphics cards for mining.” In an interview with time weekly, Chen Liang said that it’s easy to judge whether customers buy graphics cards to mine. Those who ask businesses how many graphics cards they can sell are usually miners.


Graphics card was originally just a common computer accessory, which is one of the important hardware needed for computer graphics design and game entertainment. Mining is the ultimate pursuit of computing power behavior, with the least time, limited hardware to squeeze out the highest computing power, in order to get higher returns. The large amount of computing required for mining is just the strength of GPU. GPU mining is much stronger than CPU mining. Therefore, a large number of graphics cards flow to the mining market, causing an unprecedented shortage of global graphics card supply.


On January 2, the price of bitcoin broke through $30000, and six days later, it broke through $40000. Then, bitcoin plummeted, causing a wide range of burst positions, followed by frequent ups and downs, and the lowest price of bitcoin fell to $28845. As of 12:00 on January 25, the price of bitcoin was US $33588, while the price of RMB was RMB 217540. Since 2021, in less than a month, bitcoin has risen by nearly 14%, which has also pushed up the price of other digital currencies. For example, the price of ether currency has risen sharply from US $133 at the beginning of last year to US $1433 on January 25.


The sharp rise of currency price has heated up Huaqiang North graphics card market.


“As soon as the currency price goes up, the graphics card goes up.” Video card business Liu Wei (pseudonym) so summed up. He remembers that in 2017, bitcoin soared from $1003 to $20000, making it famous. At that time, a card (commonly known as the graphics card launched by AMD) was very popular. The demand for mining increased sharply, and the price of mining card (graphics card specially used for mining) soared. “A card of 1000 yuan, when it reached the highest, was more than 4000 yuan.”


The current popular mining tool is RTX 30 series graphics card. Nice hash shows that the computing power of 3090 and 3080 graphics cards is 106mh / s and 97mh / s respectively. According to the bitcoin price of that day (January 25), after deducting the electricity charge of 0.617 yuan per kilowatt hour, the monthly income can reach 1515.10 yuan and 1249.73 yuan respectively.


The mine card market thus revived. The 3080 graphics card, which is officially priced at 5499 yuan, has soared by more than 6000 yuan. In the recent week, it has risen from 9000 yuan to 12000 yuan. The 3090 graphics card, which is officially priced at 11999 yuan, has a market price of 13900 yuan.


At this price, even if the price of graphics card soars, bitcoin can earn back the cost in 10 months as long as it stays above $30000.


There is even a phenomenon of “one price a day” in the market. When the reporter of time weekly inquired about the price from the business as the buyer of the video card, the other side said helplessly: “the market is unstable now. For example, if I tell you the price today, it may be another price tomorrow. The price is not sure.”


The net profit is 600 yuan


“No one knows what they used to say about bitcoin. Now we’re all talking about dinner! ” While assembling the main computer, Liu Wei talks to customers. “I can’t afford bitcoin. It’s so expensive.” He joked that bitcoin, which costs more than 200000 yuan, is a game played by rich people.


The entry threshold of graphics card is far lower than that of bitcoin. When the production capacity is limited and the stock is scarce, you can earn money by buying it.


“You can make money in a situation like this. How much do you make? Anyway, it’s all about the price. It’s that simple. ” Liu Wei said frankly that if he could get a large number of goods at the official price earlier, he would have made a lot of money now. “One can earn 2000 yuan.”


Graphics card spot shortage, of course, is unable to get goods at the official price. The price difference between the purchase price and the market price is the profit margin of the business. But when is the best purchase time, and whether to maintain the supply, is also the biggest problem of these businesses.


Chen Liang wants to have a blog. In December last year, he hoarded three 3070 graphics cards, and the purchase price was as high as 5300 yuan per card. Fortunately, the market is awesome. The price of money has risen all the way. He can make 600 yuan for every sell. “Under normal circumstances (not affected by the soaring price of bitcoin), you can make a difference of 300 yuan, but now the profit is at least doubled.”


“Whoever has money will get the goods.” Chen Liang said that because the goods are very difficult to find, customers who need to take more than 10 pieces at a time will definitely raise the price, “I will only accept the order if I can make 1000 yuan each.”


There are opportunities to make money everywhere in the mine card market. “Now buy (graphics card) and put it back for a few days. When the graphics card rises to 6000 yuan, you can take it and sell it. You can make money.” Liu Wei said the secret of speculation, “it depends on whether you dare to gamble. Investment is risky.”


Miners and mine owners prefer to go to the Expo once.


The number of bitcoins is limited. In this game, the faster one can solve the computing problem, the more he can pocket the remaining bitcoins. To improve the cracking speed, the quantity is not the quality. Under this operating rule, mining has become a game of computing power of equipment. The more high computing power equipment is put into use, the greater the win.


Usually, miners use 6-8 graphics cards to form a mining equipment. Starting with the current market price, the cost of 3070 graphics card for a mining equipment is 43200-57600 yuan.


“Miners can’t buy 30 series graphics cards, so can old ones.” Liu Wei said that high-end graphics cards such as series 30 are out of stock, so the mine owners focus on the old models of graphics cards, and they can all mine, but the calculation power is different. “For example, the 1660 Series graphics cards originally cost 1400-1500 yuan, but now they all cost 2500-2600 yuan.”


The graphics card is hot and the shop is cold


The price of currency is crazy, so are the miners and mine owners, and so do the video card merchants, but it’s not easy to hoard and speculate.


The first is whether you can get 30 series graphics card.


“If you want to stock up, you have to see how much money you have.” Chen Liang said that due to the small amount of goods taken, businesses in SEG electronic market seldom directly connect with manufacturers, and generally take goods from dealers. “Dealers don’t have so many goods. It’s lucky to get them.” Chen Liang said that if you can get the new graphics card, in addition to meeting the mining demand, you can also use it to assemble computers in the store and drive the sales of other computer accessories.


Even if the dealer has the goods, the graphics card business still has to abide by the unwritten rule: take a 30 series graphics card, still have to distribute the goods.


“We have to take 10-20 low-end graphics cards. We pay for them in advance.” Chen Liang said that this has become a big threshold for businesses to store goods. The price of a low-end graphics card is about 280 yuan. In other words, every time you take a 30 series graphics card, you have to add an additional purchase expense of 2800-5600 yuan. What’s more worrying is that these low-end graphics cards basically have no demand in the market, “it’s hard to sell.”


Graphics card prices continue to catch up, most businesses are conservative hoarding.


“Just a little bit.” Liu Wei said that there are not many stores that actually stock up, “now the price is so high, who will stock up? If the price goes down, from 5000 yuan to 4000 yuan, one card will lose 1000 yuan and can’t afford to be hurt. ”


Graphics card is hot, but Huaqiangbei’s shop is cold.


Chen Liang’s shop had few customers in the afternoon. “Every day people ask (graphics card), but when they hear about the price, they don’t want it. The price is high.” Since the store sold 3070 graphics cards, Chen Liang has sold more than 70. “When the graphics card is not so expensive, the business is better.”


Huaqiangbei business seems to have been gambling: how long will the situation of hard to get a card last, and what price is suitable to start hoarding.


Graphics card supply is the key. In December last year, NVIDIA said that the shortage of wafers, silicon chips and other components had led to a tight supply of graphics cards. It was trying to expand the supply, and it would take several months for a thorough improvement. In January this year, NVIDIA disclosed that if the mining demand further increased, it would restart the CMP mining special graphics card product line to produce mining special graphics card.


“It won’t come down years ago.” In the SEG electronic market, many businesses make such judgments. Liu Wei believes that whether the graphics card can be reduced depends on the trend of currency price, but no one can say for sure. “Even if the currency price falls in a short period of time, the impact will not be too great.”