Category: Market

“Housing and living without speculation” practical tricks landed

Financial regulatory authorities in many places have made precise controls on housing-related funds to strictly prevent consumption loans and business loans from flowing into the property market in violation of regulations. The reporter of “Economic Information Daily” learned from authoritative channels that Shenzhen’s relevant financial regulatory authorities recently convened a meeting with a number of commercial banks to request banks to investigate the inflow of operating loans into the real estate market. The content of this investigation includes inclusive loans of less than 10 million yuan issued after May 1, 2020, as well as housing loan business loans (unlimited amount) applied in the name of individuals.

Property management industry enters the era of merger?

With the upgrading of real estate financial supervision, the control of bank loan flows has also become stricter. Many banks expressed that they will strengthen the control of the entire process of credit business, and will immediately recover their loans once they find that funds have flowed into the real estate market. Industry insiders said that certain organizations or individuals in society claim to be able to withdraw bank loan funds, which is illegal and illegal, and relevant departments should seriously deal with intermediaries suspected of illegal or illegal actions.

“Precise regulation” of housing-related funds in many places

Financial regulatory authorities in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and many other places have recently taken action to carry out precise control of housing-related funds to strictly prevent consumption loans, business loans and other funds from flowing into the property market in violation of regulations.

In 2020, the overall financing environment will be relatively loose and interest rates will fall. Some people have the impulse to use lower interest rate consumer loans, business loans and other funds to buy real estate. Taking “business loans” as an example, it is understood that in 2020, many banks’ housing loan business loan interest rates will drop below 4%, and individual high-quality companies can even get as low as 3.65%, compared with Beijing’s housing loan interest rates in the same period. The “spread” is intuitively visible, and the loan can be repaid after interest. The “business loan” itself is to support the entrepreneurial development of small and micro enterprises, but some of the funds have flowed into the property market, which is really a “good idea.”

Industry insiders said that relevant supervision must be strengthened, and the inflow of illegal funds into real estate should be publicly and seriously investigated to reduce rent-seeking space.

In addition to Shenzhen’s relevant financial regulatory authorities convening a meeting with major commercial banks within its jurisdiction to conduct investigations on March 11, the “2021 Shanghai Credit Policy Guidelines” issued by the Shanghai Headquarters of the People’s Bank of China on March 12 also emphasized that financial institutions must be reasonable Control the growth rate and proportion of real estate loans, strengthen the management of personal housing loans, strictly examine the authenticity of lenders’ personal information, and effectively prevent consumption loans and business loans from flowing into the real estate market in violation of regulations.

The Guangdong Banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau also issued the “Notice on Organizing Banking Institutions to Carry out Operational Loans and Personal Consumption Loans Risk Investigations”, requiring banking institutions within the jurisdiction to focus on credit investigation, credit review and approval, post-credit management, and third-party institutions Carry out all-round risk investigation in various links including business cooperation.

Intermediary packaging companies arbitrage funds illegally and illegally

A number of commercial banks interviewed by reporters stated that they have passed measures such as strict qualification review of operating loan entities and strengthened monitoring of the flow of credit funds to prevent operating loan funds from flowing into real estate and other illegal areas, and will immediately withdraw their loans once they find that funds have flowed into the real estate market.

However, many commercial bankers also said that in the loan disbursement link, the bank will review the authenticity of the fund use certification materials and the authenticity of the trading background, and avoid issuing loans to companies that have no actual operation and untrue operating flow. However, in reality, there are some intermediaries who “push the flames” to instigate customer packaging companies, and circumvent bank surveillance through multiple transfers. There are even intermediary companies that clearly mark prices for the purchase of shell companies and other services.

The reporter has received a phone call from an intermediary who recommends loans. When the reporter asked whether the loan can be used to buy a house, the intermediary said that they will prepare the necessary bills in advance and can be used directly for the purchase of a house. The officer also said that “accepting new companies, new shareholders, new legal persons”, “just divorced, just transferred, and all operations”, etc., can prepare a “full set of information”.

“Some institutions or individuals in society claim that they can withdraw bank loan funds, which is illegal. Such illegal activities may cause their own property losses and adversely affect personal credit. Please don’t believe them credulously.” Fan Baoming, deputy general manager of the Consumer Finance Department of Bank of China Shenzhen Branch said.

To prevent these “partial doors”, bank audits are also continuing to tighten. Liu Shanghai, deputy general manager of the Personal Loan Management Center of the Shenzhen Branch of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, said that in the process of handling operating loans, conduct detailed pre-loan investigations and reasonable credit extensions, strictly review the operating conditions of the borrower’s operating entity, and carefully evaluate the borrower’s funds The authenticity of demand and the reliability of solvency do not support the purchase of new real estate in the past year as collateral, to ensure the true compliance of the business background from the source, and the steady and compliant development of credit operations.

The relevant person in charge of the Shenzhen branch of Everbright Bank also said that Everbright Bank has been very strict in monitoring the inflow of bank loan funds into real estate. For example, through systematic fund supervision and manual spot checks, check whether the flow of funds is in compliance. In addition, the bank will regularly check whether the borrower and his spouse or guarantor have new housing loan records after the loan is issued, or check whether there is a new housing situation through file search. Once the loan funds are found to have flowed into real estate, the bank will require the borrower to repay the bank loan in full.

Relevant persons from the Small and Micro Finance Business Department of the Shenzhen Branch of China Minsheng Bank stated that the qualification review of borrowers will be strengthened before lending, and loans will not be issued to companies that have no actual operation or untrue operating flow. For borrowers who actually operate companies are established or have a short transfer time Critical review.

Clients defaulting and embezzling loans will be included in the “blacklist”

Many industry insiders said that business loans illegally entered the property market, whether it is for borrowing companies or home buyers, there are many hidden risks. A relevant person from a major state-owned bank told reporters that there are legal risks in fraudulent loan materials. Customers fraudulently obtain business loans by submitting false materials. Once verified, there is a legal risk of being investigated for fraudulent loan crimes and other criminal liabilities. In addition, customers who are unable to repay their loans in advance may face risks such as bank litigation and seizure of mortgaged properties. At the same time, violating customers will also be blacklisted, which may affect customers’ subsequent applications for loans at the bank. During the interview, the reporter also learned that some borrowers have been withdrawn by banks in advance due to illegal use of operating loans.

Some people in the banking industry also said frankly that under normal circumstances, banks can only check their own funds, and it is true that they cannot effectively monitor the transfer of funds across banks. This also allows some people to take advantage of the loopholes. Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of China Merchants Finance, also suggested that regulatory authorities can use regulatory technology to create an inter-bank and comprehensive system to further enhance the ability to monitor the flow of housing-related funds. He also said that the regulatory authorities can also use some typical cases to emphasize the seriousness of the policy, and at the same time increase the cost of illegal misappropriation of funds by borrowers, and guide them to apply for bank loans in a lawful and compliant manner. For intermediaries suspected of violating laws and regulations, relevant departments must also severely deal with them.

Dong Ximiao said that to prevent the illegal flow of funds into the property market, it is fundamentally necessary to strengthen the macro-control of the real estate and stabilize the property market expectations. The market tends to stabilize, and the inflow of funds into the property market through various means will naturally decrease.

“New weekend economy” becomes a new engine of consumption

1、 New weekend Economy: emotional consumption in the scene of weekend as time node

becomes a new engine of consumption
With the Z generation of young consumers becoming the main force of the new era, the whole market is gradually changing with the changes of their consumption mode and consumption demand. “Arrange for the weekend”, which is the consensus of the Z generation youth group. The young people who have taken over the consumption market are not only the main groups of content consumption, but also the main experiencer and leader of “eating, drinking, shopping and entertainment”. On weekends, they punch in, socialize, shop, go to KTV to sing, and jump in bars. These activities have become the main ways for the Z generation youth to relax, socialize and entertain on weekends, so the “new weekend economy” is becoming a new force of economic growth.
The new weekend economy refers to the economic category that takes weekend as the time node or provides economic supplies with weekend as the theme. For example, use weekends to drive with family and friends in surrounding cities, or take part in a two-day and-a-night Music Festival on weekends. More recently, white-collar consumption is also a typical weekend economy. From the office building to the large shopping malls, weekends are usually the time when the order volume and sales volume are the most.
Weekend consumption is a great deal of emotional consumption for generation Z consumers. For example, in order to comfort their hard week to release the pressure of the mood, can and 35 friends in the weekend to gather together. On weekends where work pressure is removed, order a small wine in barbecue stand and wine house, and then a few barbecue strings to release the exhaustion of a week; on weekends sleeping to natural wakefulness, dress up carefully, and then book a long-lasting online red restaurant, and set the holiday by checking in. In a way, weekend is a time node where people can release their emotions, whether they want to vent, socialize, learn or consume tens of millions of dollars. But the time latitude scene of the weekend is unchanged. By spending on weekends and releasing their mood, weekends will be the real “rest day”.
The new weekend economy has great potential, and consumers’ willingness to consume on weekends is generally much higher than that of working days. For example, the report of “insight into the trend of food consumption in the dining hall by 2020” issued by the food and beverage Institute of the United States Group also reveals the potential of weekend consumption scenarios: during the recovery period of epidemic, the vitality of catering hall food consumption returns, and the weekend catering consumption has contributed significantly to the recovery of the whole catering market. The online food search heat of meituan in June to July is 27% higher than that of working days; the online orders of weekend catering account for 37.7% of the total orders of the whole week, and the daily average quantity is 1.5 times of the working day. Weekend catering consumption has driven the economic recovery and is becoming a new engine driving consumption.

becomes a new engine of consumption
On weekends, consumers can spend more time freely and have more opportunities to spend, so they play a key role in consumption. Many enterprises have seen the importance and development space of the new weekend economy, and took the lead in opening up a new blueprint with innovation. For example, the United States Group has launched weekend promotions such as “super weekend” and “crazy weekend”. Especially in the weekend activities of “815 super free food festival”, there are many innovations, which are specially designed to create special benefits and benefits for weekend scenes. At the weekend of August 15-16, the event not only launched exclusive brand offers, but also launched the “shopping cart full reduction across stores” and other play methods, which set off the weekend food and beverage consumption boom. During the 815 super free food festival, only two days from August 15 to 16, the total consumption on the mass online reached 137million yuan, with more than 2.05 million milk tea coffee, 1.34 million hamburger fried chicken and 1.09 million ice cream sold.
2、 Characteristics of “new weekend economy”: young people, night consumption, and circumjacent travel
Compared with other scenes, weekends can stimulate people’s enthusiasm for consumption. After a busy week, people need a specific time to relax. Go to the beauty shop for massage, stroll around the city, or have a good meal. This kind of accessible and freely controllable weekend consumption mode is the primary choice for most consumers in the post epidemic era. Meanwhile, with many industries launching various activities with weekend as the theme, the industrial chain of the new weekend economy has gradually formed.
The three prominent features of the new weekend economy are young people, night consumption and surrounding tours. First, whether it is the continuous insight of various consumption reports on the passenger flow group or the data feedback from the Internet, it is very clear that the importance of young groups for consumption is clearly marked. Moreover, the report of insight into the trend of food consumption in the dining hall in the weekend 2020 shows that the group under 35 is the main force of weekend night consumption, accounting for 85% of the weekend night market, and the favorite snack, barbecue and drink three categories, which indicates that the consumption capacity of young people on weekends is huge.
Secondly, night consumption is also one of the characteristics of the new weekend economy. According to the survey data of the Ministry of Commerce, the peak passenger flow of more than 1 million people in Wangfujing is in the night market, and the commercial sales volume at night accounts for 50% of the day in Shanghai. The catering turnover of Chongqing is over 2/3 in the night, and 55% of the service industry output value in Guangzhou comes from the night economy.
Meanwhile, from the weekend consumption of “815 super preferential Food Festival”, consumers in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen prefer night nights. The proportion of orders from 9:00 p.m. to 6 a.m. accounts for more than 20% of the total daily orders, of which Guangzhou is 32.7%. Thus, there is a great room for the increase of night consumption on weekends.
Finally, the surrounding tour is also a popular consumption mode for the generation Z young people. In the current situation where the epidemic situation is not fully controlled, a large number of overseas tourism has been converted into domestic tourism, among which, the demand of surrounding cities is the most vigorous instead. Because the surrounding tour can be realized on weekends, it is convenient and quick to travel without long journey or schedule in advance. It is said that walking on the road is a good choice for weekend leisure. The surrounding resort in many areas is difficult to find on weekends. The “weekend free flight” launched by China Eastern Airlines can take the flight of East Airlines for 3322 yuan at weekends. Changfei can fly to major cities except Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. Once the products are launched, the market reaction is strong, and the app purchase entrance of China Eastern Airlines has been squeezed once.
3、 Social consumption, grass planting consumption and emotional consumption will be new opportunities for the incremental growth of “new weekend economy”
Under the influence of the epidemic situation, “new weekend economy” has played an important role in promoting the recovery of consumption and promoting economic growth. The new weekend economy as the core of life style, one-stop consumption new business forms, there is a huge market stock and unlimited potential of future increment. When the merchants and platforms on the supply side start to expand the consumption space and actively create weekend boutique scenes from the aspects of food and housing, travel and entertainment, we should also pay attention to new incremental business opportunities to realize further upgrading and development.
When enterprises are transforming into the new weekend economy, we must grasp three key points to grasp the wave of the new weekend economy. First, social consumption. On weekends, the social needs of generation Z group are more intense, because generation Z is basically the only child, and they attach great importance to the communication and interaction between friends. It is an opportunity for the Z generation consumers to experience the pleasure in weekend social interaction.
Taking the crazy weekend jointly held by KFC and the United States as an example, in combination with the consumers’ mind of weekend party, KFC has launched multiple party packages for consumers to choose. For example, the original price of “enjoy meal” for 4-5 people is only 117 yuan, and the average cost is 23.5 yuan. According to statistics, KFC sales rose 68% on a month on month during the crazy weekend event in July, which is closely related to the preferential activities with the concept of “dinner and social” as the core concept. Second, according to the data of meituan, generation Z young people think it is delicious to eat together. Hot pot, barbecue and barbecue with social attributes have become the c-place choice for the youth to have dinner on weekends. Social consumption is the differentiated demand of generation Z, they are not only for eating, but also for social use.
Second, grass consumption. With Z generation becoming the main group of consumption, they have different demands from the previous generation X and generation y. For example, young people like to “plant grass for consumption”. “Planting grass” is the proper term of generation Z. they like to see the relevant content shared by others before shopping. If the content shared by the other party is interested in themselves, generation Z will generally try, that is, “grass planted”.
In the weekend consumption, generation Z young people often collect activities suitable for spending on weekends and be planted on weekdays. After being planted, they will accumulate certain expectations continuously. In addition, they want to reward themselves on weekends. These Z generation young people often achieve their “small goals” of being planted on weekends to obtain fresh feeling and satisfaction A sense of humor.
Big data show that eating list will become a new search keyword on weekends. It is with the platform like meituan that consumers can plant grass first and then consume. Businesses can promote their own brands in this way, such as finding influential KOL, online red and bloggers to promote, so as to expand their popularity. Once there are more recommended people, these Z generation consumers will be attracted to generate consumer will.
Third, emotional consumption. It refers to the young users not only pay attention to the function of products and services, but also pay more attention to the release and expression of emotion. Generation Z young people know more about enjoying life and relaxation. The young people who have accumulated certain pressure and exhaustion tend to release their emotions at the weekend, which can control their time and belong to the youth of generation Z. what they want to do is to leave the troubles accumulated in working days, and be themselves and express themselves on weekends. For example, the “weekend follow the fly” activity of China Eastern Airlines is that it gives the flight freedom and follow-up emotion, and can move young users who advocate freedom and walk on. For example, Chaoyang Joy City in Beijing has built a “youth ideal life festival” market only opened on Friday and weekend in outdoor square. The businesses that have settled in include some catering brands, art galleries, cultural and creative shops and handmade shops, so that consumers can feel their ideal life and have warm and charming emotional experience. The event attracted more than 150000 consumers to punch cards, and the huge traffic of people brought considerable potential consumers to the business. The passenger flow of the mall has increased by more than 30%, and the sales volume has increased by more than 40%. It can be observed that if the business can attach emotion to goods or services, it can move consumers more, thus creating new incremental opportunities.
It is not difficult to see that weekend is a key consumption scenario worth the efforts of the business. The “new weekend economy” is becoming one of the effective means to stimulate consumption demand and realize incremental. Unlike other economic categories, the new weekend economy is more active on the supply side – that is, by focusing on weekend consumption scenarios, and supporting the multi-element and effective supply, the enthusiasm of mass consumption is mobilized. Moreover, the core of social consumption, grass planting consumption and emotional consumption is actually the transformation and development of thinking for businesses. From the product thinking from the previous self to the scene thinking with users as the core, this is the key to realize the economic growth in the new weekend.

A shares are hard this time!

After the A-share boom, did you make your money back?

On March 11, the three major A-share stock indexes collectively opened higher, and the market rushed higher in the early trading and then fell slightly. In the afternoon, the three major A-share stock indexes began to oscillate at a high level, and once again rose slightly at the end of the day.

As of the close of the day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.36% to 3,436.83 points, once again breaking above the 3400 mark; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.23% to 13,866.37 points; the ChiNext Index rose 2.61% to 2746.58 points.

A shares are hard this time!
On the disk, the concept of carbon neutrality broke out. Kaimet Gas, West China Energy, Huayin Power, Xichang Power, Huaneng Hydropower and other daily limit; cement and non-ferrous aluminum broke out strongly, Sinoma International, Tianshan, China Aluminum, The daily limit of Yunlu Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum and others. In addition, only commercial department stores, textiles and garments, decoration, home appliances and other sectors saw smaller gains.

It is worth noting that the institutional stocks rebounded, with Zijin Pharmaceutical, Northern Rare Earths, Aier Ophthalmology, Arowana, and Ningde Times all rising by more than 5%. In addition, the liquor stocks also ushered in a recovery after experiencing successive setbacks. Kweichow Moutai soared nearly 4% to 2048 yuan per share, returning to above the 2,000-point mark.

Regarding the future trend of A shares, Jufeng Investment Consulting believes that the bull market pattern is still in place, but the overall bull market has ended. In the mid-to-late economic recovery and the current liquidity margin is tightening, the current bull market has entered the late stage when the Baotuan stocks are concentrated. There is still a basis for the index to continue to rise, but more attention should be paid to the specific configuration.

In addition, CICC issued a research report that once again reiterated that it is fully optimistic about the performance of A/H banking stocks. The industry itself is at the starting point of performance/valuation reversal. Macro interest rates and the regulatory environment are also good for industry performance. Look forward 1~4 In the last quarter, A/H Bank has about 39/45% upside potential, and H>A.

Apple fell to the altar?

Is Apple really going to fall to the altar?

Apple fell to the altar?

On March 9th, Beijing time, as of the latest close of the US stock market, affected by the broader market, the “market value brother” of the US stock market fell again by 4.17% to US$116.36. The total market value was only US$1.95 trillion. This is the first time it has fallen below this level since 2021. The US$2 trillion mark, and the last time it was in September 2020. Some analysts believe that investors are switching from technology stocks to value stocks or cyclical stocks, which will benefit from the upcoming economic restart.

It is worth noting that the recent Hong Kong stock company Xiaomi also ushered in a sharp drop in its share price. As of press time, Xiaomi once fell more than 7% in intraday trading, but then rebounded slightly. The total market value is only 550 billion Hong Kong dollars, or about 462 billion yuan. Starting from the high of 35.9 Hong Kong dollars per share at the beginning of the year, Xiaomi Group-W plummeted nearly 40% in two months, and its market value evaporated over 360 billion Hong Kong dollars.

Calculating from Apple’s high of US$144.874 at the end of January, the stock price has fallen by 20% in more than a month. Although it is not as low as Xiaomi’s 40% drop, the market value has evaporated by US$480 billion, or about 3.13 trillion yuan, which is the current Xiaomi. 6.8 times the market value.

In other words, Apple evaporates the market value of nearly 7 millets in more than one month. In fact, in August 2020, Apple’s market value exceeded 2 trillion US dollars, becoming the first US listed company to achieve this achievement. Unfortunately, in less than a month, Apple’s stock price plummeted by nearly 7% in a single day, losing the $2 trillion mark.

Apple’s performance is not bad. In the fourth quarter of 2020, Apple achieved revenue of 111.44 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 21% year-on-year, breaking through the 100 billion U.S. dollar mark for the first time; net profit of 28.76 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 29% year-on-year. The “New York Times” commented that Apple had its highest profitable quarter in history.

In addition, Morgan Stanley analyst Katie Huberty pointed out in a report that the supply of iPhones has caught up with demand, and that Apple has performed well in China. It is estimated that China’s iPhone shipments in January increased by 150% year-on-year. Even this quarter will remain strong. There is also news that Apple’s spring conference is expected to launch AirTags and the new iPad, which may further stimulate Apple’s stock price.

The era of global economic water release

1. The cooperation model of the global division of labor determines the large-scale release of foreign countries in response to the impact of the epidemic, which is likely to cause domestic imported inflation. This is an external variable that we cannot ignore.

2. Under the background that the new open economic system is gradually taking shape, the domestic economic policy connectivity between China and its major trading partners will become stronger and stronger. Affected by the “trilemma”, it is difficult for China’s monetary policy to survive alone.

3. In a mature financial market, equity investment is undoubtedly one of the best safe-haven assets. At present, we need to lower our expectations of real estate investment returns, while continuing to pay attention to the opportunities and risks of the Chinese stock market.

The era of global economic water release

1. What is imported inflation?

In economics, constant and general price increases are defined as inflation. Since the birth of banknotes, inflation has followed suit. In human history, the serious impact of several large-scale inflations is thought-provoking. Therefore, governments of all countries, without exception, have regarded “maintaining the stability of price levels” as one of the main goals of macroeconomic policies.

In the research on the causes of inflation, imported inflation has gradually attracted the attention of economists. This is mainly because since the middle and late last century, Western developed countries began to transfer the lower value-added links in their manufacturing industries to developing countries in consideration of the comparative advantage of production factors, thus forming a production process covering the world. The so-called global value chain (GVC).

This mode of production has made the global economy increasingly close. In the book “The World Is Flat” by the American economist Thomas Friedman, there is a vivid description of this phenomenon, that is, in the global industrial chain, A multinational company may be headquartered in New York, with a factory on the coast of China, and a listing in Hong Kong, China. Because only in this way, can the cost of production factors required by the enterprise’s production links be optimized.

The increasingly close connection of the global real economy has also made the flow of financial capital in various countries closer. As a result, closely related global financial markets have been formed. Once a country experiences a financial crisis, it will inevitably bring an inevitable impact on its main trading partners and even the global market.

A typical fact is that during the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, the Chinese government issued a “four trillion” stimulus policy.

The so-called imported inflation, that is, the international transmission of inflation, refers to the increase in domestic prices caused by the input of external inflation in an open economic system.

Speaking of this, some people may say that since globalization has such a big risk, can’t we not engage in globalization? It is true that there are indeed different voices in the international academic community when it comes to dealing with the impact of globalization. However, this kind of doubt mainly lies in the damage to the interests of developing countries and the uneven distribution of interests within developed countries.

As the world’s largest developing country, it “opens the door for construction” and “utilizes foreign capital is not out of date.” The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly pointed out that it is necessary to build a new and open economic system of a higher level. It is the best answer to this question.

2. In the era of global water release, China’s monetary policy is difficult to survive alone

Trade links are the basis of international capital flows, which determine the inseparable financial links between trading partner countries.

At present, China has long been the world’s second largest economy, and has been the world’s largest manufacturing exporter for many years. The latest news from the General Administration of Customs shows that from the perspective of trade volume in 2020, my country’s top five trading partners are ASEAN, the European Union, the United States, Japan and South Korea in order.

With the formal signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) and the completion of negotiations on the China-EU Comprehensive Investment Agreement (CAI), China will have closer ties with the outside world.

The World Bank’s “Global Value Chain Development Report (2017)” shows that under the global production division model, if measured by trade volume, the world has now formed three regional global production centers of China, Germany and the United States.

Therefore, in the post-epidemic era, the monetary policies of the United States, Japan, and Germany are particularly worthy of our attention.

As far as the United States is concerned, in order to effectively respond to the impact of the epidemic, under the promotion of the new US President Biden, the US House of Representatives voted on the 27th local time to pass the US$1.9 trillion economic stimulus plan. Although the plan still has different disputes between the two parties in the United States, mainstream public opinion shows that the implementation of a large-scale post-epidemic economic stimulus plan will be a high probability event.

Looking at Germany again, in order to support the companies and individuals affected during the epidemic, the German ruling coalition has passed an economic stimulus plan with a total amount of up to 130 billion euros.

As far as Japan is concerned, in order to effectively alleviate the economic impact of the epidemic, the Japanese government has launched a third round of economic stimulus plan with a planned total investment of up to 73.6 trillion yen.

In this round of the epidemic, the Chinese government responded quickly and forcefully. On the one hand, it controlled the epidemic, ensured the safety of the people, and handed over an answer that was satisfied with the people and attracted the attention of the world, which can be recorded in history. On the other hand, through a flexible, accurate, reasonable and moderate monetary policy, it has contributed positively to the resumption of work in the early stage of epidemic prevention and control.

However, in the international environment of global flooding, China’s monetary policy has become increasingly difficult to be alone. The central bank’s M2 data shows that since January 2020, the money supply has continued to rise.

Figure 1 China’s central bank money supply (January 2020-January 2021)

Data source: Wind

In the context of an increasingly open economic system, it will become increasingly obvious that the Chinese government’s monetary policy is restricted by the “trilemma”, which brings new and greater challenges to the monetary policy.

3. 2020 may have become the starting point for many asset prices in the next few years

There is no doubt that under the conditions of limited capital account opening, the Central Bank of China has sufficient policy reserves and tools to hedge the negative impact of the epidemic.

However, looking at a longer period of time, the economic stimulus plans launched by various countries in response to the impact of the epidemic will greatly affect the major prices of global assets and will to a large extent become a new round of asset pricing. The base year.

Especially, in the era of global water release, large amounts of foreign exchange reserves cannot avoid the risk of devaluation. For example, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange announced that it will orderly abolish the annual limit on foreign exchange purchases and payments. The signal released is not unobvious.

For us personally, how to start the battle to defend our wealth?

One is to lower expectations for real estate investment. The golden age of buying real estate with your eyes closed and waiting for appreciation is undoubtedly gone. The value of future real estate investment lies in the core areas of core cities, ranging from apartment types, community environment and properties, to education, medical care, transportation and commercial facilities, which will be the core factors that determine the value of real estate investment. “Do not speculate on housing and housing” and don’t try to challenge the central government’s determination to regulate and control real estate.

The second is to attach importance to the opportunities and risks of equity investment. After a year of high light, the risks in the stock and fund markets have become apparent. For ordinary investors, if they do not want to be a leek, it is particularly important to study the basic investment knowledge. Choose a good investment target, master the basic position building skills, save your strength, and be a friend of time. Perhaps the most sure way to fight against an uncertain future.

Finally, talk about an extravagant hope about the freedom of wealth. In those years when housing prices in Beijing were soaring, there was a popular saying among many people, “What were you thinking when the house price in Beijing was 2,000 yuan?” Perhaps some years later, someone might ask, “When the Chinese stock market was 3,000, you were What are you doing?”

The public fund apologized

Unexpectedly, the veteran fund manager driver with 12 years of experience also made the mistakes of retail investors and couldn’t help chasing high, becoming one of the worst funds since the Year of the Ox.

The new fund was established less than a month ago and lost nearly 18% in 12 trading days

It only takes two days to open a position?

The public fund apologized

The thing is like this, a fund called Hui’an Balanced Advantage Mix was just established shortly before the Spring Festival. It is estimated that taking a short distance is more uncomfortable than a loss, so it quickly builds a position and holds a group of stocks. Unexpectedly, after the Spring Festival, the market will come to a 180° After the big change, Baotuan stocks suffered a heavy hammer, losing nearly 15% in only 9 trading days!

What’s the specific situation? Let’s take a look at the net worth performance. The fund went into effect on February 9th, and the net worth increased by 1.34% on the 10th. After the Spring Festival, the net worth was announced on the 19th and 26th. After the Spring Festival came back, the net worth was announced on the 19th and 26th. I know, after the holiday to the 26th, there were only 6 trading days in total, and it dropped by 15%!

On the evening of the 4th, the latest net value has been as low as 0.8244, which is a loss of nearly 18% in 12 days!

Public information shows that Hui’an Balanced Optimal Mix will be on sale on February 1, and announced on February 3 that it will end the fundraising early.

With the help of China Merchants Bank’s powerful channels, the final raised scale was 820 million yuan, which was subscribed by 12,638 investors. The results are still quite good.

The results are still quite good.
Why did it fall by nearly 18% in less than a month after its establishment. According to analysis by industry insiders, it is very likely that two days before the Spring Festival, that is, February 9th and 10th, the new fund will have completed the position, and the position is still relatively heavy. The purchase may be Baotuan stocks, otherwise there will be no such a large amount after the festival. Decline.

Why is it so fast to open a position? Such aggressive tactics are relatively rare. According to the fund manager, new funds generally do not open positions too quickly. A certain safety mat must be established before fund managers will gradually increase positions. On the other hand, the initial increase of investment targets is strong, and The market may mean taking the market, and not entering the market may lead to the risk of running short.

Fengjing Capital Fund Manager Wu Yuefeng shared an opinion on Weibo today: Some fund companies have been putting pressure on fund managers, and you have significantly underperformed the index and peers. How do you provide channels to customers? The average holding period on Alipay is only 40 An account from the user who is still on a blind date?

One of the fund managers talked to me with a gloomy look, saying that the leaders encouraged them to sell these industries with a valuation of several ten times, including many low-value sectors including games, to chase other hot companies, and to educate them repeatedly. Leading companies enjoy endless valuation premiums, and the continuous rise is logically based. They are advised to play down the concept of valuation, pay attention to the logic of the runway, and learn to use DCF to predict the market value in 2025.

What kind of person is the fund manager Zou Wei?

Public information shows that the fund manager of Hui’an Balanced Optimal Hybrid is called Zou Wei. The current chief investment officer and managing director of Hui’an Funds is a veteran with 20 years of experience in securities and funds. Previously, Wei Zou worked at Great Wall Securities, and joined the Harvest Fund Research Department in June 2003, where he served as a fund manager, leader of the theme strategy group, and managing director. In December 2017, he joined the Hui’an Fund.

Zou Wei currently manages three funds, namely “Hui’an Yuyang Dingkai Hybrid, Hui’an Industry Leading Hybrid, and Hui’an Hongyang Three-year Holding Period Hybrid” with a total scale of only 1.28 billion yuan.

In addition, he has worked for more than 10 years as a fund manager with an annualized return of more than 10%. As of January 4 this year, among the 2,000 or so public fund managers, only 42 fund managers met, and Zou Wei was one of them!

The fund company’s promotional materials stated that Zou Wei is a restrained fund manager, not only from a clear understanding of his own ability boundaries, but also from his understanding that “scale” has a huge impact on “performance”. In order to maximize the return of the fund and to allow investors to obtain a tangible return on investment, he would rather give up the size of the fund and give up high management returns.

According to the fund company, Zou Wei’s current representative work, “Hui’an Industry Leading Mix”, has a scale of only 112 million yuan. Instead, the daily limit for each user is 1,000 yuan, which has only been relaxed to 100,000 yuan, which shows restraint.

According to the 2020 Four Seasons Report: Hui’an industry leader since its establishment on August 28, 2019, as of December 31, 2020, has accumulated 68.15% of revenue!

According to the data, Hui’an Yuyang, which is under management, will open the latest ten largest mixed holdings, including CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and Tongwei.

The company just issued an apology

Ask investors for more time

Faced with various questions from the holders, a certified “Hui Xiaoan” made an official response-“First of all, I apologize to everyone. Our fund has added congestion to everyone. Everyone who bought Hui’an Fund is our customer. , We will be responsible to the end.”

According to “Hui Xiao’an”, the optimal configuration of Hui’an Balance is similar to Zou’s other products, the three main tracks are new energy, photovoltaic, and military. Both are very good long-term tracks, and the performance of individual stocks is very good. However, this time it is true that we were lucky in timing, opening positions were relatively quick, so the drawdown was also relatively large.

“However, we are confident, because the bottom layer of stock funds is stocks, and the bottom layer of stocks is the enterprise and the economy. This essence will not change, and thank you all for your patience and giving us some time.” “Hui Xiaoan” said, although this The handshake is not a pleasant one, but you will not be disappointed by making them this friend, and they will work hard to do a good job in the follow-up.

In addition, the Hui’an Fund wrote an article “Your Trust, We Always Keep in Heart” to apologize to investors in the evening. The article pointed out that the withdrawal of the fund made Hui’an Fund deeply disturbed. Hui’an Fund stated that despite the substantial retracement of the fund, it still firmly believes that many long-term tracks and assets have fallen to better prices, and begged investors for more time.

I’m sorry that Hui’an Fund recently appeared to be “named” in a not very good way. We used to think that through time, everyone will slowly pay attention to our “fixed income +” products are very cost-effective; or pay attention to our quantitative investment and index enhancement products are very bright. However, it is a pity that many friends have paid attention to us recently, but Huian Equilibrium Optimum has a relatively large retracement of the fund.

Hui’an Equilibrium Optimum was established on February 9. Based on the long-term optimism of the track and the judgment of short-term liquidity, we firmly made the investment layout. However, during the Spring Festival, the price of resource products rose, leading to rising inflation expectations, panic spreading, and market fluctuations suddenly increasing. As a result, the net value of Huian’s equilibrium and preferred mix also saw a large retracement. In the short term, this product has caused a certain degree of floating losses for investors who trust us, which makes us deeply disturbed. Because the most rare thing in the world is trust, especially the trust of partners and customers, which is even more precious. Here, we would like to express our deep apologies to all friends and investors who pay attention to the Hui’an Fund for this reason!

In addition to restlessness, we still maintain a firmness and confidence. Investment is a long-distance race, and confidence is more precious than gold. Since the establishment of Hui’an Fund, we have always kept in mind our responsibilities and entrusted by you, and dare not slack in the slightest. Investment is not only an intellectual challenge, but also a test of human nature. Joy, anger and sorrow are the enemies of investment. On the road of continuous growth, you can only do your best to achieve a clear conscience.

Under the violent market volatility, many long-term tracks and assets have begun to fall at better prices. Adhering to long-termism, adhering to the long-term track and not drifting, and resolutely holding China, are our sacred needles for responding to market fluctuations and maintaining a firm heart. So, I hope everyone will give us some time. In the past few years, we have been committed to making investments in a down-to-earth, down-to-earth manner. Recently, although individual products are a bit staggering, I still hope that friends can understand: We have not dared to neglect our trust in everyone. Especially for new friends, although the handshake this time may not be pleasant, we will make follow-up efforts so that you will not be disappointed to make us this friend.

Thank you all, let’s go for it!

N multi-star funds fell as much as 20% after the holiday

How arrogant I was years ago, how sad I will be after years

On March 4, the index collectively went down, the ChiNext Index fell nearly 5%, and the White Horse stocks plummeted continuously. Affected by this, #基金# rushed to the fourth place in the hot search. Jimin lamented, “How arrogant I was before, and how sad I will be in the next year”!

The fund manager has calculated that after the Spring Festival of the Year of the Ox, there are so many funds that have fallen by more than 20%.

Since 2020, public offering funds have frequently been out of the circle and have been heatedly discussed. “Post-90s” and “post-00s” have entered the market for “speculation”. At the same time, the number of new fund issuances and initial shares have reached the highest level in history, and fund returns have risen and fallen. It affects countless people’s nerves.

The fund manager believes that choosing investment funds to indirectly participate in stock market investment, thereby reducing the risk of individual stock investment, but this does not mean that the fund is an investment that makes a profit without losing money. We still have to look at it rationally. There are risks in any investment. Don’t be overwhelmed by the current fund investment fever. Thinking about making quick money in fund investment, it is often easy to fall into a state of large losses. Learn to hedge and diversify fund risks in order to obtain more profit possibilities.

Some fund managers remind investors that there are many disciplines that need to be followed when investing in funds, one of which is very important, that is: Don’t turn around and leave at the trough, and don’t come in admiringly at the peak.

Some new foundations lack intuitive experience of fund investment risks. Once the fund they buy loses, they will feel anxious, and then immediately redeem them to stop the loss. In fact, fund losses are not terrible, and market volatility is common. Even the best funds can’t do everything smoothly.

In addition, when the fund loses money, it is also a good opportunity for investors to re-examine the fund, because when the stock market is rising unilaterally, it is difficult to find whether the market is too good or the level of fund managers is high, and it is also an opportunity when the market adjusts.

If the investor holds an active equity fund, the easiest way to judge when the fund loses is to compare the fund with its performance comparison benchmark or the Shanghai stock index. If the fund loses money, it still outperforms the performance benchmark and the Shanghai Composite Index. , Then the downside factor is likely to come from the weak market. If you underperform the performance benchmark and the Shanghai Composite Index, you can first ask the question mark in your mind about the level of active management, and then observe for a period of time. If this continues, you must redeem the stop loss in time or switch to other funds.

If investors hold passive index funds such as ETF funds, they don’t have to panic when they lose money. Short-term market fluctuations are normal. If you are still optimistic about the long-term performance of the index, you may wish to continue holding it and wait for the market to pick up.

The nation’s “fried base” fever: who is crazy for Zhang Kun?

Last year, due to the booming stock market, public funds were also booming. More and more young people, born in the 90s and 00s, began to buy funds in the market.

who is crazy for Zhang Kun?

After 90s, Liu Xiangjun showed his income chart to Shenran: he started buying on and off in April and May last year, and invested about 150,000 yuan before and after. During this period, the net value of the fund has been rising. Before the Spring Festival, his book floating profit reached a record. 50,000 yuan.

The feeling of lying down and making money is great. He doesn’t understand funds, and he doesn’t know which stocks these funds have bought. Anyway, he “buy blindly, and buy a few thousand if it’s pleasing to the eye”.

There are not a few people like him who enter the market in a silly way and make money easily. According to data from the Mob Research Institute, in the first half of 2020 alone, China’s new Christians exceeded 20 million, and about half of them were born in the 90s under 30. In 2020, the average return rate of Chinese public funds is 45%. This means that the vast majority of people who enter the market have made money.

Young people who have tasted the sweetness are very enthusiastic. E Fund’s star fund manager Zhang Kun was enthusiastically praised, and a large group of young Christians established a fan support group on January 26, playing for Zhang Kun like a star, and Zhang Kun ascended to the altar.

But only half a month later, after the Spring Festival, the market took a turn for the worse. In just a few trading days, the net value of a fund managed by Zhang Kun dropped by 10%. All the new Christians who chased after the high and entered the market a year ago were all buried. Many people’s attitudes turned around one hundred and eighty degrees in an instant, and voices of questioning, verbal abuse and even defamation appeared.

For many investors, the fund bull market that began last year is a good time to make money in financial investment. The continuous money-making effect attracted a large number of noobs to enter the market. A 70-year-old man who retired at home and a 20-year-old student who just went to college started to consult about the fund. There is a nationwide “speculation” fever.

What is worrying is that many young people who have just entered society invest hundreds of thousands of yuan to buy funds, but they don’t know anything about funds. They follow venture capital, frequently operate, chase the rise and fall, and speculate in funds like stocks. Know whose money you are making and why you are losing money. They are young, impulsive, and emotional. Today they are wild stock gods, and tomorrow they are strong leek.

“China’s capital market is short and long. It takes a long time to digest the pain, and it takes time for new leeks to grow. History is always repeating itself. Each session of leeks thinks they are different, but in fact there is nothing. It’s different,” said a person in charge of a fund company with more than 20 years of experience to Shen Ran.

The beginning of the story is beautiful, but this may be an exaggerated feast of wealth.

The beginning of the story: young people, financial management and the dream of getting rich

Funds began to arouse discussions among the people. In fact, in the second half of 2020, the most intuitive phenomenon is that the newly released funds have sold out.

Public offerings are financial products sold by fund companies, and public offerings are public fundraising for the public. According to different investment directions, funds can be divided into currency funds, stock funds, bond funds, etc. The most popular in 2020 are stock funds, that is, those funds that trade in stocks. When you buy a fund, you become a fund holder, commonly known as the “Kimmin”.

Fund managers take the Citizens to speculate in stocks, make money together and lose money together, which is the basic model of this business.

In the first week of the second half of 2020, the first “Sunlight Base” was born (funding was completed on the day of sale)-China Universal Mid-Cap Value Select Hybrid Fund, which raised more than 30 billion yuan on the same day.

Two days later, the Penghua Ingenious Select Hybrid Fund, co-led by Jinniu Fund Manager Wang Zong, planned to raise 30 billion yuan. As a result, it subscribed more than 70 billion in the morning and 135.7 billion in the same day, setting a historical record.

This record has not been broken throughout 2020 until the fund company Yi Fangda, which is sought after by fans, makes a move. On January 18, 2021, E Fund’s competitive advantage corporate fund was issued, and the subscription amount reached 237.4 billion yuan on that day, setting the highest subscription record in the history of public funds.

It was at this time that public offering funds “out of the circle”, and it exploded among young people. The “fan circle” invaded and formed a global support club for Zhang Kun, the star fund manager of E Fund, on Weibo. Zhang Kun is regarded as a new generation of koi, and his head is made into posters.

Source / network

Everyone involved has a dream of getting rich in their hearts. Liu Xiangjun is one of the first people to start dreaming.

Liu Xiangjun is the kind of person who “knows that financial management is very important, but doesn’t know how to manage money.” In the past, he put his money in Yu’e Bao, but later found that the rate of return was getting lower and lower. Thousands, only earning dozens of yuan a month, it’s not worth it.

His starting point for “raising the foundation” is very simple-“One day he found out that a fund he joined two years ago had risen by 200%.” The fund he looked at at the time was another consumer fund under China Universal Asset Management mentioned above.

He started to buy various top-ranked funds in May last year, and bought 22 funds in total, buying tens of thousands of dollars every month. Apart from being able to understand the daily profit and loss, “I don’t understand other things. ”

But he caught up with a good time. When he entered the market, the 100 billion subscription of Penghua Ingenuity Fund did not appear until two months later, and most of the big fund companies’ explosive “sun base” appeared in the second half of the year. From May to the Spring Festival of 2021 (mid-February), the A-share ChiNext index rose by 60%, and the yields of many funds also rose by about 30%. When the Spring Festival came, he chose to “hold the base for the New Year” and did not sell the profit. At that time, the book profit was more than 50,000 yuan.

Just like before the banquet, it always starts with dessert. Those who have tasted the sweetness began to rush to tell, “I bought a fund to make money”, which has become a daily meal and after-dinner talk for many people.

In some fund discussion forums on the Internet, information about blind dates and marriages began to appear. The topics asked by both men and women have changed from house and car to the type of fund held and the rate of return. In the discussion forums of funds with high cumulative yields such as liquor, medicine, and new energy, the comment area has the most marriage news.

This seemingly hot atmosphere and the huge money-making effect have activated the dream of young people to become rich overnight. They ran into the arena with money and full of enthusiasm.

The last round of such a hot fund market was in 2007. A media person who used to be the host of a financial program on a local TV station, Xiang Shenran recalled that every time the program was broadcast, he would report a number-the number of new Christians that day. Because the market is too hot, too many people open new accounts every day. This is very similar to the situation today.

Jiang Weijun, chairman of Dajiang Hongliu Asset Management Co., Ltd., has been in business for more than 20 years. He told Shenran that in 2008, he served as the director of a research institute in a securities company. People invited him to dinner, “The main reason is to share the joy, and I have made money. I will tell you as soon as possible.” In that round of bull market, the A-share stock index rose from 998 points to 6124 points, a 6-fold increase in more than two years.

The clock is set to 2020. Last year, the yields of many funds soared. Now many people believe that a bull market similar to that of 2007 is coming again.

After the 90s, Zhao Yunjing started to buy funds because suddenly one day, he received a pop-up window of Alipay’s fund notification on his mobile phone. Following the link to enter the fund page, he found that many of the top funds have return rates of more than 100%, while Yu’ebao’s return rate has fallen below 2%.

At that time, he had heard about fund income from friends during more than one dinner. In the subway passage on the way to work, on the TV screen of the elevator in the community, he had seen many fund advertisements, and even once when he was posting a short video. He also caught the live broadcast of the fund manager. In order to promote one of its livestock breeding funds, Ping An Fund brought a piglet in the live broadcast room.

Alipay and QQ Music Licaitong, a sales channel for C-end users, greatly improved the convenience for ordinary people to buy funds. In the past, people had to go to the bank to buy funds, or through stock trading software, but now they can buy it at will when they turn on their mobile phones, and there is no limit on the amount of money, hundreds of thousands of dollars can enter the market.

Hu Bo, vice president of Yingli Securities, told Shenran that he can clearly feel that the funds on the Yingli Intelligent Investment platform are selling much better than before. “Many customers will take the initiative to choose funds.”

Tiger Securities, a US and Hong Kong stock brokerage, told Shenzhen Ransom that since last year, many investors began to pay attention to funds. During the Spring Festival of 2021, Tiger Fund supermarket stock AUM (asset management scale) reached the level of 330% at the end of Q3 last year, doubled from the end of Q3 to the end of the year, and doubled again after the Spring Festival from the level at the end of 2020.

Before the Spring Festival, the fund is accelerating its teamwork. A steady stream of capital blessings has allowed those companies with heavy positions in funds to obtain continuous liquidity, which in turn promotes stock prices to continue to rise. Hu Boxiang analyzed that there is a positive correlation between fund grouping and the existence of the market, and they are mutual cause and effect. “From the perspective of a fund manager, it’s very simple. I manage a 5 billion fund. You can’t buy small-cap stocks. You can only buy some large-cap tickets, and it’s long-term.”

On some community apps and short video platforms, some big V and some short video creators began to export fund science knowledge, expose fund income, and guide fans to buy funds. Videos such as “College Students Buying Funds with a Monthly Income of Thousands” and “Student Party Financial Management Practice” are very common. These wild “fund gods” use semi-professional interpretations and unverifiable income charts to attract Xiaobai to the market and fuel the already hot fund market.

Jiang Weijun believes that China has entered an era of capital. After the per capita GDP exceeds 10,000 US dollars, everyone has surplus money in their hands, investment has become a rigid need, and buying funds has become a popular culture.

“It’s not like Bitcoin is just a niche group playing, but everyone can see it and talk about it. Just like many people drink coffee, if you don’t drink it, you refuse to drink, and it’s nothing to you. It’s good because everyone else can drink it, and it can add value.” In addition, fund managers have celebrity effects, have IPs, have fans, can have relationships with people, and can spread, so the scale effect is obvious.

Compared to 2007, even though funds are hot now, fund manager fan support groups are still a novelty. Hu Bo believes that in 2007, TV newspapers were the main channel for people to obtain information, and online advertising was not the mainstream, but now the forms of media communication and interaction have changed. Not only are channels more diverse and more scattered, but also more interactive. “In this era of pan-entertainment, it is not the financial industry that has changed, but the entire media industry.”

Who made my money away?

When Zhao Yunjing bought the first fund through Alipay, it was the days when Zhang Kun was popularized by fan support groups. He bought the popular China Merchants China Securities Liquor Fund and invested 20,000 yuan.

Unexpectedly, after the Spring Festival, the stock market plummeted. Since the market opened on February 18, for more than a week, the high valuation sector led by liquor has continued to fall, and Zhao Yunjing has lost nearly two thousand yuan. Years ago, after the fund rose, he sold a little bit. When the fund fell after the year, he added a position, but sold it again two days later.

He didn’t know what happened, he only knew that his money was gone, and he was panicked, “I feel like I was cheated.” Those who posted profits on the Internet, including friends who made money from buying funds, looked like fakes.

Jiang Weijun, who has experienced many rounds of bull-bear conversion, can understand Zhao Yunjing’s feelings well. He met an investor. Once this person participated in a radio show. The host asked, “What is your most memorable number?” Some people said it was his birthday, and some said it was his wife’s birthday. This person said a list of stocks. Code. He said: “This number has poured all the honor, hard work, emotions and, of course, money in my entire life. Now, as long as I hear this number, I will be shaking all over.”

“In the investment process, extreme goodness will definitely bring extreme badness. Many people can’t bear this kind of volatility. Most people can’t pass this level. Even if you buy funds, buy at the highest point and sell at the lowest point. This is the main reason why many retail investors lose money.” Jiang Weijun said.

Buying funds to lose money is often not because of the fund, but because of the timing or method of participating in fund transactions.

According to Wind data, the average increase of 535 stock funds that can be counted across the market in 2020 is more than 43.92%, but the yields of many Christians are far below this level, or even loss. This shows that during the process, the Citizens did not hold for a long time and frequently reverse operations, which led to underperform the average return of the fund.

Buying funds is different from buying stocks and trust products. Fund buying is actually a semi-entrusted relationship. In Jiang Weijun’s view, it is irresponsible to scold fund managers after buying public funds or index funds after losing money. “Stock funds have a minimum position limit. Some public funds have industry restrictions and tendencies. Investors need to make their own position and industry choices. You can’t half-entrust to a public fund and let the public fund assume the responsibility of fully entrusted. This is a public fund. The main difference with private equity funds.”

I can’t control my own hands. This is an important reason why fund companies have made a profit, but some Christians have suffered miserable losses.

Source / Unsplash

Hong Liu, the investment director of Harvest Fund with 21 years of securities industry experience and 10 years of investment experience, told Shenran that what a fund manager does is to buy the best assets and make long-term allocations instead of frequent trading every day. Some investors are seriously wrong to speculate funds as stocks. When communicating with Shenzhen Burns, the Harvest Competitive Optimal Hybrid Fund, led by Torrent, just launched its sale on February 22, with a fundraising limit of 8 billion yuan. As a result, the total market subscription amount exceeded 36 billion yuan in one day.

Hongliu further analyzed that the handling fee of the fund is very high. If the investor sells it within 7 days after the purchase, he will have to pay a redemption fee of 1.5%, but many ordinary people do not know it. “Buying funds is actually buying fund management companies and fund managers. Don’t think of it as an online celebrity market. Frequent trading cycles and trading frequencies will make you lose a lot of holding opportunities.”

Many newcomers who have followed the trend obviously haven’t figured this out yet. What they see is the halo of the Internet celebrity, the enviable income graph, and the overnight richness in the mouth of others. But the market cannot keep rising.

“If the market keeps going up, whoever makes money? You make money from ordinary retail investors who are crazy to buy funds later.” Hongliu said.

Jiang Weijun gave an example to Shen Ran. Young people buying funds are like watching idol dramas, and all they see are sweet words, but what we are thinking is whether the relationship can last in the most difficult time. In his investment career, the market fell more than 50% when the market was the most volatile. At the end of the bull market in 2008, the entire market fell by 66%, and the fund fell by an average of 72%, but even so, those who hold it so far have reached a new high.

“The current increase is very good, but this is the stage of idol dramas. What I am thinking about is what should I do when the firewood, rice, oil and salt can’t make it through? It is activated through the sweet part, so everyone sees the money-making effect, but it is a bittersweet. There is a process, this is the cruel and true phenomenon.”

The front-line fund managers face the fluctuations of the market every day and face the trust of investors and bear the greatest psychological pressure.

Hongliu told Shenran about his daily work as a fund manager, and the things that take up the most time in a day are not market-watching and trading, but long-term in-depth research, various surveys and roadshows. Off work

The troubles of Singapore’s richest man Zhang Yong

On March 2, 2021, Hurun Research Institute released the “2021 Hurun Global Rich List”. Haidilao’s founder Zhang Yong and his wife were ranked 38th in the world with NetEase’s Ding Lei with a fortune of RMB 245 billion, and their wealth increased by 138 year-on-year. %, without any suspense, became the richest man in Singapore again.

The troubles of Singapore's richest man Zhang Yong

According to data, Zhang Yong and his wife Shu Ping are both Singaporeans. The couple had previously ranked first on the Forbes Singapore Rich List announced in August 2020 with a net worth of US$19 billion. The deadline for entrepreneur wealth calculation is January 15, 2021. Based on this calculation, Zhang Yong and his wife’s net worth soared by more than 100 billion yuan in six months.

However, Zhang Yong, whose net worth has soared, is not without worries. Since February 18, Haidilao’s stock price has fallen by more than 18%, and its market value has evaporated by nearly 80 billion Hong Kong dollars. The profit warning issued by Haidilao on the evening of March 1st showed that the group expects its net profit in 2020 to fall by about 90% year-on-year.

At the same time, Haidilao has been plagued by negative public opinion for the past year. Following the exposure of food price increases, plastic slices eaten in black-bone chicken rolls, and paid queue jumpers, Haidilao has recently caused heated discussions due to the installation of cameras in private rooms.

Haidilao’s rapid expansion strategy is no longer news, but the company’s recent highlights will inevitably lead to suspicion. In addition to the epidemic, are Haidilao’s plummeting performance affected by other factors?

Haidilao’s net profit fell by 90%, Zhang Yong still sits firmly among the richest man in Singapore

The troubles of Singapore's richest man Zhang Yong

On the evening of March 1, Haidilao announced that the group expects that its net profit for the year ended December 31, 2020 will be about 90% lower than the net profit of the group for the year ended December 31, 2019 of approximately RMB 2.347 billion.

For the reasons for the decline, Haidilao gave two explanations. The first is “the outbreak of the new crown virus in 2019 and subsequent disease prevention measures, as well as the restrictions imposed by countries and regions around the world on consumer sites have a significant impact on the Group’s operations”, and the second is “net exchange due to fluctuations in the exchange rate between the US dollar and the RMB. The loss was approximately RMB 235 million, most of which were unrealized exchange losses.”

The outside world has long expected Haidilao’s performance to decline in the past year, but what was unexpected is that the decline was 90%.

In the first half of 2020, Haidilao achieved revenue of 9.761 billion yuan, down 16.54% year-on-year, and recorded a loss of 965 million yuan. At that time, CITIC Securities stated that the public health incident will have a direct short-term impact on catering companies, but the long-term trend will not change, and after the residents’ lives gradually return to normal, the previously suppressed demand is expected to be released explosively. The research report written by Guosen Securities is also titled “The most difficult moment or has passed”, and believes that Haidilao’s contrarian expansion will lay the foundation for higher performance growth in the future.

On February 2, 2021, the research report issued by Everbright Securities predicts that Haidilao will achieve a net profit of 540 million yuan for the entire year.

However, if calculated by a 90% decline, Haidilao’s net profit attributable to the parent in 2020 may be only 234 million yuan, the lowest since its listing.

Despite this, Haidilao is still favored by the capital market. Since New Year’s Day in 2020, Haidilao’s stock price has risen by more than 115%. If the deadline is advanced to before the Spring Festival in 2021, Haidilao’s stock price has risen by more than 158%, and its market value has soared by more than 260 billion Hong Kong dollars.

As the market value of Haidilao has risen, the wealth of Zhang Yong and his wife has also risen. According to the 2020 semi-annual report, Zhang Yong’s approximate shareholding in Haidilao’s total issued share capital is 68.16%.

On September 26, 2018, Haidilao was successfully listed in Hong Kong. In 2019, Zhang Yong and Shu Ping topped the “Forbes 2019 Singapore Rich List” list with a net worth of US$13.8 billion; when the list is released again in 2020, Zhang Yong The Yong couple’s net worth has risen to 19 billion U.S. dollars, and they continue to be the richest man in Singapore.

On the “2021 Hurun Global Rich List” released by the Hurun Research Institute on March 2, 2021, Zhang Yong and his wife rose 6 places, their wealth increased by 138%, and ranked 38th in the world with a net worth of RMB 245 billion. Li Ka-shing , Meituan Wang Xing, Country Garden Yang Huiyan family, Xiaomi Lei Jun, Evergrande Xu Jiayin, Jingdong Liu Qiangdong, Zhang Zetian and his wife left behind.

Compared with many of the richest people on the list, Zhang Yong started from a lower starting point. In 1994, Zhang Yong, who sells spicy tang, founded Haidilao with his wife and friends. After 24 years of ups and downs, it finally went public. Currently, Zhang Yong’s assets span catering, entertainment, education, and investment. The empire of Haidilao Group includes Yihai International, New Third Board Company Youdingyou, New Third Board Video Security Company Wan Jiaan, Supply Chain Shuhai Weihai Catering Management Training Company, Shuyun Oriental Decoration Company, etc.

In order to better engage in investment, Haidilao established Haiyue Investment in 2012; in addition, Zhang Yong is also one of the indirect investors of Yunfeng Equity Investment Center and Haijing Linxiyu Investment Center; in 2019, Shu Ping also worked in Singapore Set up a family office.

Frequent hot searches, damaged brand image

While performance is at a low point, Haidilao has recently been involved in a whirlpool of negative public opinion from time to time.

In the past year, Haidilao has often been seen on Weibo’s hot search list. Radar Finance noted that Haidilao Hot Pot’s official Weibo has 314,700 followers. This data is not outstanding among Weibo big V with tens of millions of fans, but there are as many as 914 topics about Haidilao. .

Immediately after resuming work after the 2020 epidemic, Haidilao was complained by netizens due to the price increase. “The average per capita is 220+, and the half of blood has risen from 16 to 23 yuan, eight small pieces; half of potato chips is 13 yuan, and one potato is 1.5 yuan. Self-service seasoning costs 10 yuan a person; rice 7 yuan a bowl; small crispy pork 50 yuan a plate, it’s too much…”

In this regard, Haidilao first responded that the price increase was affected by the epidemic and rising costs, but the overall price adjustment of dishes was controlled at 6%. Seeing that in a survey initiated by netizens on Weibo, more than 800,000 of the 984,000 who participated in the vote chose “don’t eat if the price rises”. Haidilao issued an apology, stating that the price increase was the wrong decision of the company’s management. And the price of vegetables has been restored to the standard before the store closed.

In fact, Haidilao has been raising prices every year before. According to data from the Tianfeng Securities Research Institute, the per-customer price of Haidilao’s first-tier cities has risen from 93.2 yuan in 2015 to 110.1 yuan in 2019. However, industry analysts believe that the price increase after the epidemic is far greater than before. Timing is also more sensitive, which arouses strong consumer resistance.

Three months later, Haidilao was plagued by food safety problems one after another. According to media reports, on July 12, a consumer ate hard plastic slices in black-bone chicken rolls while eating in Jinan Haidilao hot pot. Haidilao staff then removed the remaining black-boiled chicken rolls for recycling, and proposed this order to be exempt. And compensate the 500 yuan hot pot coupon treatment plan, the plan was rejected by consumers. The next day, Ms. Zheng and her friends both had stomach cramps and blood in the stool to varying degrees.

On July 20, Haidilao issued an apology, stating that the incident was caused by “the improper operation of the employees in the filling process of the supplier’s factory, which caused the product label to fall into the product”.

Only one week after the apology, a Haidilao store in Hangzhou was found on the “black list of random inspections” by the local Municipal Supervision Bureau for a batch of chopsticks used in the store. It is reported that this pathogenic bacteria can cause a variety of local tissue and organ infections such as gastrointestinal infections under certain conditions. In this regard, Haidilao said it would directly punish the manager of the store in question and apologized.

Haidilao’s bad luck has not stopped. In October 2020, the China Consumers Association named Haidilao to spend money to buy an account to shorten the queue time, which caused the chaos of other consumers who did not spend money to queue for longer. According to reports, as early as January 2020, Haidilao issued a statement on cracking down on illegal sales of Haidilao’s store equivalents. However, after 9 months, the chaos of paying queues still persists.

Media investigations found that spending 40 yuan on Taobao can enjoy “privileged” services, including a 30 yuan jump-in fee and 10 yuan to enjoy a 8.8% discount for Black Sea members. After netizens purchase related services, the number of tables they waited instantly changed from 217 tables to 1 table, and the benefits of Black Sea membership would have been enjoyed only after spending over 12,000 yuan in the past year.

Although Haidilao has since issued a statement on cracking down on online sales of false ranking information, netizens who do not buy it believe that Haidilao is purely “pretending to be confused.”

After the Spring Festival in 2021, Haidilao will be on the hot search again, this time because of the installation of cameras in the private rooms.

Yan Chuang, a lawyer from Beijing Zhongwen Law Firm, said to Leda Finance that the installation of a camera in a restaurant’s private room is suspected of infringing on the privacy of guests. When a guest chooses a private room, he must have a good dining environment and emphasize privacy. It is not appropriate to install a camera in a restaurant’s private room. . If the restaurant is to be installed, an obvious sign should be set up in the monitoring area to inform consumers that there is a camera in the private room.

However, Yan Chuang also admitted that from the perspective of restaurants, cameras are installed to protect consumers’ property and strengthen safety management. The current law does not clearly stipulate this area, but some local governments have issued government regulations to restrict it.

The hidden worries of Crazy Extension

Radar Finance has found that Haidilao has expanded very rapidly in recent years.

According to the prospectus, Haidilao’s global restaurant network has increased from 112 at the beginning of 2015 to 273 at the beginning of 2018, expanding to 161 in three years. By 2018, Haidilao had added 262 new stores worldwide in just one year, and this number had increased to 302 in 2019. According to Everbright Securities’ forecasts, Haidilao will add 525 new stores throughout the year in 2020.

Since 2019, Haidilao’s fast-food brands have been intensively launched on the market-“Eighteen Boil”, “Lao Pai You Noodles”, “Bai Bran Private Noodles”, “Xin Qin Pai Noodles Restaurant”, “Fan Fan Lin”, “Qin Xiaoxian” and so on. In January 2021, Haidilao Wuhan also launched a “tea making paradise” that allows customers to make their own milk tea.

Different from Haidilao’s own attributes, these brands focus on people-friendly prices. According to media statistics, the per capita prices of Shiba Bian, Qin Xiaoxian, Lao Pai Youer, and Baiyun Private Room Noodles are 5-15 yuan, 3.9-16.9 yuan, respectively. About 2.9-9.9 yuan, 6-10 yuan, a cup of milk tea in the tea making paradise is only 9.9 yuan, add whatever you want.

In addition, these small shops adopt a semi-self-service model, where customers order, pick up, pick up cutlery, recycle plates, and even pour their own water cups. This is also different from Haidilao’s strong service attributes.

Tianyan check shows that the initial investment subscription amount for the above-mentioned fast food projects is 1 million yuan. At present, several sub-brands have not formed a scale, and their contribution to revenue is extremely limited.

With the expansion of the store scale, Haidilao’s operating costs will inevitably rise.

In 2018, Haidilao’s raw materials and consumables cost 6.935 billion yuan, an increase of 60.8% compared to 2017’s 4.313 billion yuan; staff costs were 5.016 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60.8%. In 2019, Haidilao’s raw materials and consumables cost 11.239 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.64%; staff costs 7.993 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.3%. At the same time, the proportion of the two costs in revenue is gradually increasing, and this has not changed even in the first half of 2020, which is severely affected by the epidemic.

In 2018 and 2019, Haidilao’s revenue growth was 59.53% and 56.50%, which were significantly lower than the growth rate of the two costs. Considering that Haidilao’s expansion store will grow more rapidly in 2020, the above two costs have further increased. Or it’s a foregone conclusion.

In order to reduce costs, Haidilao laid off 10,614 employees in the first half of 2020. The 2019 annual report shows that Haidilao Group has a total of 102,800 employees, with an average annual salary (including allowances and benefits) of 77,800 yuan. Based on this simple calculation, the cost of layoffs for Haidilao is over 800 million yuan.

Industry insiders believe that in the next three to five years, the number of Haidilao’s stores may reach the upper limit and enter a development bottleneck period. It needs to work from other businesses, but to change the current sub-brand’s tepid state, Haidilao The investment in this area is far from enough.

In April 2020, Zhang Yong issued an open letter on “starting the succession plan”. The letter stated that he would withdraw in 10 to 15 years. Before he officially withdrew, Zhang Yong still had a lot of troubles.

The property market has been regulated 62 times at the beginning of the year!

Since the beginning of the year, all localities have strengthened “policies in accordance with the city.” As of early February, there have been as many as 62 real estate adjustments in various regions in 2021. Analysts predict that in 2021, the adjustments will continue to be precisely “patched”, which will also promote the smooth and healthy operation of the market. Zou Linhua, head of the housing big data project of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences’ Financial Strategy Research Institute, told the China Times reporter that this year’s first-tier cities and strong second-tier cities have entered a difficult see-saw stage of housing price increases and regulation. Mainly, other cities are mainly stable or down.”

Actively “patch” the regulatory policies in many places

Statistics from the Centaline Real Estate Research Center show that in early February, real estate regulation in various regions exceeded 20 times. In January, real estate regulation policies were issued more than 42 times. In 2021, real estate regulation in various regions has accumulatively reached 62 times.

Since the beginning of the year, four first-tier cities have issued property market control policies in turn to close loopholes. Under the main theme of “housing to live without speculation”, at the end of January, Shanghai issued the “Shanghai Ten Articles” to block the loopholes in “fake divorce” housing purchases, proposed new rules for lottery, and included forensic housing purchase restrictions, and strengthened housing from the capital side. Credit management, etc.

On February 8, the Shenzhen Municipal Housing and Construction Bureau issued a document announcing that based on the online price of second-hand housing, referring to the price of surrounding first-hand housing, the reference price of second-hand housing transactions in residential communities in the city will be comprehensively formed, which will be fully covered by the city and regional grid In principle, the residential quarters are used as regional grid units to publish the reference prices of second-hand housing transactions in 3595 residential quarters in the city.

In addition, Guangzhou has strengthened financial supervision. The four major banks have increased their mortgage rates across the board. The mortgage rates for the first and second homes have been raised to 5.2% and 5.4%, respectively; Beijing has conducted intensive interviews with some self-media and strictly investigated operating loan violations. Flow into the property market and so on.

In the same period, new first-tier and second-tier cities have also stepped up their “patching”: On January 27, Hangzhou released a major property market regulation new policy, from housing purchase restrictions, housing sales restrictions, tax adjustments, identification standards for homeless families, and priority purchases of high-level talents. Six aspects including policies have further strengthened regulation. Subsequently, the Hangzhou Municipal Housing Security and Real Estate Administration teamed up with Zhejiang Banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau and other departments to crack down on illegal capital freezing. Due to false or inaccurate information or registration materials, among 9 projects including “Yuchou Mansion”, “Danfeng Four Seasons Courtyard”, “Junpin Mingdi”, and “Zizhangtai Apartment”, 27 households are subject to purchase restrictions and check files The application will no longer be accepted within one year. In addition, Hefei, Lianyungang and other places have also issued documents announcing that it is strictly forbidden to drive up housing prices and encourage higher commission prices.

“Strictly prevent the market from overheating” is considered the purpose of this round of property market regulation. Zhang Bo, Dean of 58 Anju Guest House Industry Research Institute, pointed out to the reporter of China Times that Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have frequently introduced policies in the beginning of 2021, and the signals of “plugging loopholes, controlling finance, and fighting hype” are very obvious.

The reporter noticed that on February 23, the National Bureau of Statistics released the changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in January 2021, showing that in January, the price of newly built commercial housing in 53 of the 70 large and medium cities increased. This is an increase of 11 compared with December last year. In terms of second-hand housing, 49 of the 70 large and medium-sized cities have seen price increases, which is also an increase of 11 compared with December last year.

The sales price of newly-built commercial residential buildings in four first-tier cities rose by 0.6% month-on-month, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose 0.5%, 0.6%, 1.0% and 0.3% respectively. The sales price of second-hand housing rose by 1.3% month-on-month, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose 0.9%, 1.3%, 1.4% and 1.7% respectively. For example, in January this year, new house transactions in Shanghai increased by 17% year-on-year, a 53-month high. The average transaction price of new homes also rose 14.9% from the previous month to 59,700 yuan per square meter.

In the traditional off-season of the property market in February, according to incomplete statistics from the Centaline Property Research Center, after the third day of the first month (February 14), more than 100 second-hand houses were sold in Beijing every day. Compared with the holiday period of previous years, the market was more active. improve.

The effect of regulation and control at the beginning of the year gradually appeared

Although the property market in some cities during the Spring Festival showed a “not low season” compared to the same period in previous years, the industry generally believes that the actual effect of tightening policies in various regions has now been reflected: after the intensive introduction of control policies, the market has a wait-and-see sentiment and market enthusiasm Some fall back.

Take the Shanghai market as an example. During the Spring Festival, the property market in Shanghai fell into a trough: According to data from Shanghai Centaline Real Estate, during the Spring Festival holiday (February 11 to February 17), Shanghai’s newly built commercial residential properties sold 13,000 square meters and 59 There are online signing records for each project, but the number of online signings for most projects does not exceed 5 sets. Crane research data also shows that during the Spring Festival holiday and the week before the Shanghai commercial housing transaction area, compared with the same period in 2020 and 2019, both have a decline of nearly 60%. In terms of supply, since February, apart from the previous three projects of C&D Pushang Bay, Jingwei Academy Sunshine Home and Gemdale Peak Fan, there are no new projects on the market.

Lu Wenxi, chief analyst of Shanghai Centaline Real Estate, explained to the reporter of China Times that apart from the early release of demand due to a wave of market grabbing at the end of January, and the traditional off-season in February, all parties in the market have superimposed the regulatory policies that came out before the holiday. It takes time to digest. Lu Wenxi emphasized that different from the previous control measures, the current control policies are more sophisticated, and each buyer has its own different situations. It takes longer to “check in” and understand the digestion policy: “How to operate the new policy in detail? For example, buyers need to refer to their experience in scoring and participating in lottery.” He also said that based on the current strict control measures, it is difficult for the market to appear irrational in the second half of last year. Of course, the phenomenon of market differentiation will continue.

“The effect of the regulation at the beginning of the year is gradually showing.” Xu Xiaole, chief analyst of the Shell Research Institute, also pointed out to a reporter from the China Times. According to the data of the Shell Research Institute, since February, the second-hand housing market prosperity index of Beijing, Shenzhen and Shanghai has moved at a high level in the first-tier cities. The average price of new listings for second-hand housing in the first-tier and four-cities changed from a rise to a fall. The month-on-month increase in the price of second-hand housing in the four cities all narrowed. Among them, Shenzhen, Beijing and Guangzhou all narrowed to a moderate range of less than 1%.

Zou Linhua has a different view. He pointed out to a reporter from China Times that the current pressure on housing price increases is mainly in first-tier cities and hot second-tier cities, and the number of them is limited. After the policies are introduced in these cities, there needs to be an effect observation period, “not because the regulation has taken effect.”

However, Zou Linhua and other interviewees believe that in 2021, local regulatory policies for chaos in the property market will continue, which will also be conducive to the smooth and healthy operation of the market.

In Xu Xiaole’s view, 2021 will be a year when the long-term real estate regulation and control mechanism will continue to be implemented and deepened. Market changes will be subject to strict supervision and regulation. “It is expected that the annual price increase will be smaller than that in 2020, and the market trend will be more smooth”. Zou Linhua also told a reporter from China Times that this year’s first-tier cities and strong second-tier cities have entered a difficult see-saw stage of housing price increases and regulation.

The number of white-collar workers receiving year

In terms of industries, energy/mining/environmental protection and government/non-profit organizations still rank the top two with 38.9% and 35.6% respectively, followed by automobile/production/processing/manufacturing (32.9%) and real estate/construction (31%).

Traditional manufacturing and basic industries, the backbone of China’s economic development, have played an irreplaceable role in stabilizing the industry chain amid the outbreak, the report said. They are also developing well in the new round of industrial structure upgrading, and related enterprises are also benefiting their employees with dividends.

Year-end bonus, salary, stock

Compared with 2019, white-collar workers in most industries saw their share of year-end bonuses shrink, while cultural and sports education/arts and crafts were the only sector to see positive growth.

In addition, the service sector, which is highly dependent on offline consumption, was hit hard during the epidemic prevention period. The number of white-collar workers receiving year-end bonuses shrank by nearly half to 17.7 percent from 32.2 percent in 2019.

On February 3, Tencent Wintong and the Wealth Management Research Center of the National Finance and Development Laboratory of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released the “2020 Annual Bonus Survey Report”, which showed that nearly 70% of corporate managers will still give year-end bonuses to their employees this year, although the operation of enterprises affected by the epidemic may fluctuate.Among the respondents, 21.1 percent said they have received a year-end bonus, 47.5 percent said they have arranged to receive a year-end bonus but have not yet received one, 13.6 percent said they have confirmed that they will not receive one and 17.8 percent are not sure.

When it comes to personal bonuses, more than half of them will receive less than in previous years.Among them, 40.4 percent are the same as last year, and 8.7 percent are up from last year.In the annual bonus survey, 72.8 percent of respondents expected their annual bonus to be less than the threshold of 10,000 yuan.

According to the report, even though they did not get their expected year-end bonus, 68.5 percent of them still chose to understand and be willing to share adversity with the company, while only 29 percent would consider seeking more suitable opportunities under the premise of doing a good job at their current job.Looking ahead to 2021, 55.1 percent of workers are confident that their incomes will increase.

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