Category: Currency

Shareholder Chen You has pledged approximately 21.64 million shares

Every AI newsletter, Tianyuan Dike (SZ 300047, closing price: 7.1 yuan) issued an announcement on the evening of June 25, stating that as of June 24, 2021, Mr. Chen You holds approximately 55.14 million shares of the company, accounting for the company’s 8.65% of the total share capital, accumulatively pledged about 21.64 million shares, accounting for 3.39% of the company’s total share capital, accounting for 39.26% of the company’s shares held by it; the number of pledged shares restricted and frozen is 0 shares, and the number of unpledged shares restricted and frozen 0 shares.

The 2020 annual report shows that Tianyuan Dike’s main business is network product sales, telecommunications industry, financial industry, government industry, and other industries, accounting for 68.84%, 12.39%, 10.13%, 5.62%, and 3.02 respectively. %.

The chairman of Tianyuan Dike is Chen You, male, 57 years old, Chinese nationality, no right of abode abroad, master degree. The general manager of Tianyuan Dike is Miao Fengyuan, male, 58 years old, Han nationality, Chinese nationality, no right of abode, master degree.

Daoda (1997) “Individual Stock Trend” reminder:

1. No organization has conducted research on Tianyuan Dike in the past 30 days. For more key information, please search for “Dao Dahao”.

Every Jing Toutiao (nbdtoutiao)-selling a few pieces of curtain cloth will also lead to a copyright lawsuit! Small merchants call wronged: Why not sue the manufacturer, is “fishing rights protection” legal?

International oil prices hit a new high

In early trading on June 22, the oil sector soared collectively. As of press time, Tongyuan Petroleum rose 15.89%, Hengtai Aipu, China National Offshore Oil Services (02883) and more than 10 stocks rose more than 5%.

International oil prices hit a new high
Among them, China National Petroleum Corporation (00857.HK) surged over 5%, and the intraday peak once again set a new high for this round of rebound, setting a new high in the past 1.5 years.

In the early morning of the 22nd, Beijing time, foreign crude oil futures rose sharply on Monday, and the US WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices both hit their highest closing prices since 2018. The US stock market rose and the dollar fell, boosting the attractiveness of dollar-denominated commodities. The spread of the US oil market in recent months relative to the far-month contract has widened, indicating that market supply is tightening.

Donghai Futures believes that the expectation of a rebound in global demand exceeds the concerns of Iran’s increased supply after the sanctions are lifted, leading to a gradual increase in the recent oil price center of gravity. However, in the medium and long term, the supply side will remain relatively tight, long-term crude oil demand will continue to rise, and medium and long-term oil prices will remain in the upward channel.

CITIC Construction Investment Futures said that crude oil prices are expected to still have upside in the market outlook, and the pressure will gradually increase. The positives include (1) Europe and the United States, with the world’s leading and rapid vaccination progress, the recovery of economic and oil demand supports the market’s optimistic expectations for the prospects of oil demand, and (2) the seasonal characteristics of crude oil destocking during the peak summer driving season in the United States , (3) In the context of the approaching Iranian election, it is increasingly difficult for the United States and Iran to reach an agreement on the Iranian nuclear talks. Delayed supply is expected to be fulfilled. (4) Last week, the speculative net long positions of Brent and WTI increased by 7.3% and 8.8% from the previous month. Three weeks and two weeks increase.

Bank of China Securities believes that it is expected that from the second half of 2021, the prosperity of the petroleum equipment and service industry will rebound significantly. But what is different from the past is that both the petroleum equipment industry and the oilfield technical service industry have undergone tremendous changes in the industry structure. After two crude oil cycles in the past 10 years, China’s petroleum equipment leader Jereh and offshore oil service leader CNOOC Limited Competitiveness continues to increase, and it has a global layout. After crossing the bottom of the cycle, it will usher in new development prospects. It is recommended to pay attention to Jereh and China National Offshore Oil Services.

Young people pouring into the plastic surgery hospital

Two months ago, Han Fei spent 20,000 yuan for rhinoplasty surgery, and the postoperative results made her very satisfied. “I used to have a nose that collapsed and looked too stubborn. After I finished it, my nose was upright and delicate, and the whole face was more three-dimensional.”

More and more young people are entering the plastic surgery hospital.

Young people pouring into the plastic surgery hospital

“Now our consumer group is obviously tending to be younger.” Zhang Li (pseudonym), who is in charge of medical guidance in a plastic surgery hospital, told the Shell Finance reporter that most of the customers who came to consult, do medical beauty, and plastic surgery were 30+ sisters. Nowadays, the proportion of young people has increased, and the customer base has become mostly young people.

According to the “2020 Medical Beauty Industry White Paper” released by the medical beauty platform “Gengmei APP”, the post-80s generation of medical beauty consumers accounted for 23%, the post-90s accounted for 21%, the post-95s and the post-00s accounted for 35% and 18 respectively. %, much higher than those born in the 70s and before, which accounted for only 3%.

What are they doing? Zhang Li told reporters, “It’s no secret that young people choose rhinoplasty, double eyelid and other items to enhance their appearance. Light medical beauty such as thermal magi, hyaluronic acid, and laser skin rejuvenation have become daily skin care choices.”

“In the girlfriend circle, there are often girlfriends who have done plastic surgery or light medical beauty to share, and even invite groups to do surgery or injections from time to time.” Han Fei said. Unlike middle-aged women who hope to restore their youth through medical beauty programs, young people’s pursuit of beauty, as well as their perceptions and concepts of plastic surgery have long changed.

Some people pay for their beauty, while others are addicted to plastic surgery. However, it is worth noting that the popularity of the plastic surgery industry can hardly conceal the risks behind the brutal growth of various medical and aesthetic institutions, and chaos in the industry burst out from time to time. It is difficult to distinguish between true and false medical beauty advertisements, and there are fatal problems that plague the medical beauty industry: non-medical beauty establishments are engaged in medical beauty treatment, non-formally trained professional doctors practice, and use of non-qualified medical beauty products. And these chaos may bring harm to young people.

“Plastic surgery has certain risks. News of young people getting disfigured by mistakenly entering a black hospital is abound.” Zhang Li said, “You need to be cautious in the pursuit of beauty.”

The medical beauty is deep, so beware that “micro plastic surgery” becomes “critical plastic surgery.”

The post-90s who flooded into the plastic surgery hospital

Before the New Year’s Day holiday, 25-year-old Han Fei (pseudonym) decided to go to a plastic surgery hospital for rhinoplasty.

Although his parents, boyfriend and close friends strongly opposed, Han Fei was firm. She has been dissatisfied with her nose for many years.

For the effect of the operation, Han Fei started to prepare early. Searching for relevant plastic surgery information on the Internet, discussing the probability of success with netizens on platforms such as Zhihu and Xiaohongshu, and dragging a girlfriend who had undergone plastic surgery around him ran almost all plastic surgery hospitals in the city. Repeatedly communicate with the instructor and the surgeon, and read the previous similar cases and postoperative results in the hospital. After tossing for more than half a year, she finally settled on a well-known medical cosmetic surgery institution in the local area.

Lin Lu (pseudonym) in Shanghai also made an appointment at a plastic surgery hospital before the Spring Festival holiday, and she planned to have double eyelid surgery.

Lin Lu was tall and spoke Wu Nong softly, and her eyes were always narrowed when she laughed. During college, she never thought that one day she would want to move her eyes. But after joining the work, colleagues occasionally made innocent jokes about her single eyelid. Although there is no malice, Lin Lu also cares very much in her heart. She felt that the eyes of the female colleagues around her were big and energetic. After communicating, she discovered that many of her colleagues had undergone double eyelid surgery.

“Everyone says that my eyes are good at gazing, but my eyes are too small to understand, let alone good at gazing.” Lin Lu was depressed by this. “Single eyelid not only looks small, but it also always gives people a sense of lack of energy.”

Double eyelids are the most common minor surgery in medical aesthetics. In this era of economic value, medical beauty is more and more accepted by more young people.

“Nowadays, the consumer group is obviously tending to be younger.” Zhang Li, who works as a medical guide in a plastic surgery hospital, said that most of the customers who came in the past were middle-aged women, but now they are mostly young people. “Middle-aged customers have to do it because their skin and facial features become looser with age, but young people born in the 90s and even 00s regard medical aesthetics as the norm for beauty, hoping to improve their appearance through plastic surgery and injections.”

She said that most of the previous clients of the hospital where she worked were women over 30 years of age and more financially capable. Although in order to create popularity, hospitals will sometimes launch preferential activities for the young market, but the real source of profit is this group. However, with the rise of the young market, hospitals have gradually made adjustments and began to pay attention to the needs of young people.

Many women born in the 90s and 00s are keen on medical beauty. According to the “2020 Medical Beauty Industry White Paper” released by “Gengmei APP”, the main body of medical beauty consumers is gradually shifting to younger groups. The post-80s accounted for 23%, the post-90s accounted for 21%, while the post-95s and post-00s accounted for 35% and 18% respectively, much higher than those of the post-70s and before, which accounted for only 3%.

“Nowadays, daily skin care will choose the way of medical beauty.” 21-year-old Chen Ke (pseudonym) just finished taking hyaluronic acid a week ago. She told reporters that medical beauty has already become popular in her girlfriends circle. Most of the little sisters around her have done face-lifting acupuncture, hyaluronic acid, water-light acupuncture and other light medical beauty projects. Of course, some people have “sniffed” their faces. .

Uneasy: Why spend money to find crime?

On the day of the rhinoplasty, although she continued to do psychological construction for herself, Han Fei was still scared the moment she stepped into the hospital.

The two initial plans given by the surgeon were ear cartilage rhinoplasty and semi-rib rhinoplasty. After a long time of comparison, Han Fei finally chose the latter.

“The doctor told me that the ear cartilage rhinoplasty may collapse in a few years. Although the semi-rib rhinoplasty is more difficult, the effect is better, and there are no sequelae.” Han Fei told reporters, “The doctor needs to open a hole in the abdomen. The costal cartilage is taken out in the same way, and then implanted in the nose with a prosthesis to complete the operation.”

After Han Fei finished washing face, brushing teeth and other preoperative preparations under the leadership of the nurse, her heartbeat suddenly rose. She was shaking all over her body, and her heart was restless. For a time, she had the idea of ​​rushing out of her door. “At that time, all ideas came out. There was the excitement of becoming beautiful, and the fear of accidents, and even thought that it should be forgotten, not to do it.”

The operation lasted for three hours and finally ended. When Han Fei was sent to the ward to rest, she found that she didn’t feel anything in her nose. She stretched out her hand and gently touched it. The tape was covered with tape. The abdomen was also taped because of surgical stitching.

On the night after the operation, as the effect of the anesthetic disappeared, the nose began to feel hot and painful, and the whole face swelled, which made Han Fei panicked. She kept consulting the nurses, and even though she got the affirmative answer of “it’s okay,” she was still uneasy, and the shadow of the operation failure kept flashing in her mind.

The recovery period takes seven days. During this period of time, Han Fei’s nose was stuffed with cotton, and she could only breathe through her mouth, which made her feel particularly uncomfortable, and the discomfort in her nose made her sleepless all night. She began to anger her boyfriend, blaming him for not being tougher when she decided to stop her from undergoing surgery, “Why should you spend money to make yourself feel guilty?”

The hospital seldom tells the young people who come for plastic surgery about the pain they may encounter during the recovery period. This makes it difficult for them to accept the surgery after the operation, and they are extremely anxious because of the sudden pain.

On the day after the double eyelid surgery, Lin Lu’s eyes were so swollen that she couldn’t see anything, and she needed to constantly use an ice pack to reduce the stinging pain. The doctor told her not to wash her face within 48 hours after the operation, but to clean the wound with cotton swabs and eye drops in the morning. After being picked up by her family, Lin Lu looked at herself in the mirror, “Like a goldfish.”

Seven days later, when the thread on Lin Lu’s eyelids was pulled out by the doctor with tweezers, Lin Lu, who had originally thought it would not be painful, screamed. The intense pain caused tears to drop continuously.

After the stitches were removed, the eyes were still swollen. The doctor told her that it would take at least one month to return to a truly natural state. The original plan to wear glasses to hide the traces was also blocked. “If you don’t want to leave an eternal scar, don’t touch it casually, let alone cover it with hair and foreign objects. This month, I will endure it with ugliness.” The doctor warned Lin Lu.

“This was something I didn’t expect before the operation.” Lin Lu said, “At first I thought it would be better in a few days, but I didn’t expect it would take so long. Now I can only hope that the final effect will be satisfactory.”

Addiction: No one can accept the change from beautiful to ugly

“It’s really addictive. After you find that your appearance has been significantly improved, you will naturally have the idea of ​​improving other parts.” Han Fei told reporters, “Girls have an endless pursuit of beauty. Who doesn’t want to be more beautiful.” ”

This is almost the idea of ​​all the young people who have poured into medical aesthetics and plastic surgery.

After using hyaluronic acid, Chen Ke (a pseudonym) found that his cheeks were much softer and smoother than before. When gathering with friends, the other party also noticed her changes for the first time. This made Chen Ke more and more obsessed with the changes brought about by medical beauty. She began to pay attention to various medical beauty apps, and from time to time she consulted with plastic surgery institutions and made appointments for more light medical beauty projects. She plans to find a free time to get the face-lifting injection, “My masseter muscle is a bit big, and I plan to use an injection to make my face thinner.”

After the nose fully recovered, Han Fei seemed to have forgotten the pain she had experienced before. She was satisfied with the postoperative results and her mood improved. She felt that all the pain and anxiety were worthwhile. When she was looking in the mirror, she became dissatisfied with her other facial features again. She felt that it didn’t match her nose. A plan to “find time and do other places too” emerged in her heart.

“After an operation, many young people will be addicted to the postoperative results, and eventually become repeat customers.” On March 8, Zhang Li, who had just sent off a group of guests, finally had time to catch his breath. I rested. In addition to receiving customers who make an appointment for the first consultation, more time is spent on dealing with the needs of previous customers who want to get plastic surgery again.”

Her plastic surgery hospital received a lot of appointment orders at the beginning of the year. This makes Zhang Li and her colleagues busy almost every day from opening the door at 9 am to leaving get off work at 6 pm, and working overtime is even more normal. For nearly 10 hours, she has been leading the guests to and from the infirmary and doctor’s office, and she couldn’t take any time off for a moment. “Now the hospital’s orders have been piled up until a month later. In the past, doctors might perform two or three operations a day, but now they have at least four or five operations.” Zhang Li said.

Nearly 60% of Zhang Li’s customer list are repeat customers. She found that more and more customers, after experiencing the sweetness of medical aesthetics and plastic surgery, would take the initiative to express their willingness to improve other parts. Driven by the love of beauty, I hope that in this way the appearance can be improved even more.”

Compared with traditional plastic surgery items such as double eyelid and rhinoplasty, hyaluronic acid, hot maji, face-lifting and other light medical beauty items are more likely to make young people addicted to it. According to statistics from the Foresight Industry Research Institute, the number of users in China’s light medical and beauty market exceeded 11 million in 2019, and the number of users in 2020 will reach 15 million. According to the iResearch report, the proportion of China’s light medical beauty market in the overall medical beauty market is much higher than that of the surgical cosmetic and plastic surgery market, and has stabilized at around 65%-70% in recent years. In 2019, the scale of China’s light medical beauty market was 119.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.86%.

“I used to have a face-lifting injection and I felt that my face looks good, but after a few months I found that it gradually returned to its original appearance, and I definitely couldn’t accept it. So I developed the habit of going to the hospital for injections on a regular basis.” Before the double eyelid surgery, Lin Lu has long been a fan of light medicine and beauty.

“Light medical beauty has now become a necessity for some young people’s lives, just like skin care and makeup.” Lin Lu said that light medical beauty is mainly injection, which can achieve skin beautification and face-lifting in a short period of time. Needs, but it will gradually lose its effect. If you want to maintain your appearance, you must continue to do it, and it feels like you can’t stop.

“Addicted.” Lin Lu said. After all, “No one can accept the appearance of changing from beautiful to ugly.”

Behind the scenes: hot plastic surgery also hides risks

In the economic age, there are other reasons for young people’s pursuit of appearance.

After graduating from university, 24-year-old Wang Lei (pseudonym) worked as an UP owner in a short video company, but was criticized by netizens because of the dull skin on his face. This made him fall into a trough of self-doubt for a while. Later, he tried hyaluronic acid on the advice of his colleagues, and found that the effect was good, which made him out of control since then, “I often get hyaluronic acid, face-lifting needles and other light medical beauty to maintain a handsome image on the screen.”

Those young people who have lost a lot of opportunities because of their appearance problems hope to improve their appearance through plastic surgery and strive for more space in their work and life.

The American economist Daniel Homers has obtained such a set of data in “Beauty and the Labor Market”: a person with a below-average appearance earns 9% less salary per hour, while a person with an above-average appearance earns 9% less salary per hour. People earn 5% more per hour. The 14% of the difference is magnified to a lifetime, and the income difference between the two may reach 230,000 US dollars.

“Although it is not the era of completely looking at the face, if the appearance and ability coexist, the chances are definitely greater.” Wang Lei said.

During his time in the hospital, Wang Lei found that more and more men are choosing medical beauty programs. According to data from Tmall, during the “Double 11” period in 2020, the number of medical and aesthetic medical orders increased by nearly 7 times month-on-month, and nearly 30% of the orders came from male consumers.

On March 10, the Shell Finance reporter searched on the enterprise search platform with the keyword “plastic” and found that there are currently 18,115 domestic companies involved in this field, and 1,108 were established in 2020 alone.

“The medical aesthetics market is too hot now, and new medical aesthetics institutions can be heard almost anytime.” Zhang Li told reporters, “Many new entrants who cannot get the qualifications of hospital institutions have turned to medical aesthetics clinics. Cut into the market.”

The reporter learned that according to scale and strength, medical beauty institutions are divided into three levels: medical beauty hospitals, medical beauty clinics and clinics.

“There are essential differences between the three in terms of the medical beds, equipment, disinfection environment level, and the number of personnel qualifications.” Zhang Li said, “beauty clinics and clinics are only allowed to do some double eyelids, laser beauty, injection beauty, etc. Projects with lower risks, and difficult projects like rhinoplasty, liposuction, breast augmentation, etc. can only be carried out in plastic surgery hospitals.”

The popularity of the industry has made many small medical and beauty institutions jealous. Various problems are gradually exposed in the market. Behind the prosperity of the medical beauty track is the emergence of various problems such as illegal medical practice, medical malpractice, and shortage of professional talents.

According to the “White Paper on China’s Medical Beauty Industry Insights 2020” released by iResearch, there are more than 80,000 domestic life beauty shops that illegally carry out medical beauty projects. In 2019, there are about 13,000 institutions with medical aesthetics qualifications in China. Although the country has regulated and restricted the projects carried out by different levels of medical aesthetics institutions, 15% of them still exceed the scope of business. In addition, according to the calculation of 13,000 medical aesthetics institutions, in the case of non-multipoint practice, the number of regular doctors is about 100,000, but the actual number of medical aesthetics doctors is only 38,300. And under the “quick money, big temptation” medical beauty and black birth, a large number of illegal practitioners who claim to be “experts and doctors” have spawned.

According to data from the Central Integration Association, there are more than 100,000 illegal practitioners in medical aesthetics, and illegal doctors account for about 72% of the total number of medical aesthetic doctors. At the same time, about 14%

Population imbalance impacts the world order

When someone heard that South Korea’s fertility level had dropped to a record low last year, they immediately published an article saying that South Korea might become the first country to disappear. It was indeed shocking. Is it really so scary? Looking at the population forecast of the United Nations, we know that population changes are a slow process. How South Korea’s population will change in the future depends not only on whether the fertility level continues to be ultra-low and life expectancy increases, but also on the net migration of the population. , There are many uncertainties. There is a high probability that South Korea will not disappear within this century. But in any case, South Korea’s population problem has become South Korea’s national security issue.

Population imbalance impacts the world order

Not only South Korea, but many developed countries will face this situation. China will also embark on a path of zero population growth or even negative growth in a few years. Exactly what impact this process will bring, and what kind of changes will take place in the international population economy and the world pattern are issues that are worth studying. This article focuses on three questions: What is an international population imbalance? What are the characteristics of the international population imbalance? What is the impact of the international population imbalance on the international political and economic order?

Three dimensions of international population imbalance

Population imbalance refers to the change of population away from equilibrium, including domestic and international population imbalances. Domestic population imbalance mainly refers to the imbalance of domestic population structure and distribution. International population imbalance refers to the huge differences in the population situation of different types of countries, which in turn leads to the imbalance of the international population pattern.

The domestic population imbalance is closely related to the international population imbalance. In recent years, the World Bank’s classification of countries has divided the world’s economies into three categories not only from the income perspective, but also from the demographic perspective: former demographic dividend countries, early demographic dividend countries, and post-demographic dividend countries. This classification method is a great improvement over the United Nations Human Development Index, and it is more convenient for people to truly understand the serious problems faced by countries with high human development indexes, and avoid deification and idolization of countries with high human development indexes.

Due to the multi-dimensional characteristics of population structure, dynamics, inertia, and country specificity, after years of research by demographers, a series of consensus indicators have been formed, such as population size, population growth rate, crude birth rate, general Fertility rate, age-specific fertility rate, TFR (total fertility rate), infant mortality rate, age-specific mortality rate, life expectancy at birth, total dependency ratio, old dependency ratio, child dependency ratio, immigration rate, emigration rate, net migration Rate and so on.

Population imbalance impacts the world order

We can examine the international population imbalance from three dimensions: the imbalance of population growth rate, the imbalance of the old-age dependency ratio, and the imbalance of the scale of net migration. The difference in the international population growth rate reflects the future trend of population changes in countries with different income types, the difference in the old-age dependency ratio reflects the future structural pressure of the domestic population of different types of countries and the potential for international population migration, and the scale of net population migration reflects different types of countries. The population tension between.

First, from the perspective of population growth rate, the international population imbalance is manifested in the phenomenon that the population growth of some countries and regions is too fast, while the population growth of other countries and regions is slow or even declining. Figure 1 shows the huge differences in the population growth rate of countries with different income types. The average population growth rate of high-income countries is only 0.4%, while the average population growth rate of low-income countries is as high as 2.6%. This means that high-income countries need 101 years to increase their population by 50%, while low-income countries only need 27 years to double their population. The higher the income, the lower the population growth rate, which is a worldwide law. The trend of population changes in high-income countries continues to be sluggish, and the trend of population changes in low-income countries continues to explode. This demographic polarization is a basic manifestation of the international population imbalance.

Data source: World Bank WDI2021
Second, from the perspective of the old-age dependency ratio, the international population imbalance is manifested in huge differences in the old-age dependency ratios of different types of countries. The old-age dependency ratio refers to the number of elderly people that an average of 100 working-age people need to support. Figure 2 shows that the old-age dependency ratio in high-income countries has reached 28%, while the old-age dependency ratio in low-income countries is only 6%. The higher the income of the country, the lower the fertility rate, the more serious the aging of the population. In other words, the more serious the declining birthrate and aging population, the higher the old-age dependency ratio. This means that the socio-economic development of high-income countries lacks youthful vitality, and there is a shortage of young laborers, while vibrant young people in low-income countries lack job opportunities and are full of yearning for high-income countries.

Data source: World Bank WDI2021
Third, from the perspective of net international population migration, international population imbalance is manifested in the fact that high-income countries face huge population migration pressures, forming a relatively close population international political economy with the net migration of middle-income countries and low- and middle-income countries. relationship. The net migration of population reflects the total migration scale minus the scale of population migration in a certain period of time. It includes both legal immigrants, refugees and illegal immigrants.

Due to stagnant or even negative population growth, high-income countries have been experiencing serious declining birthrates and aging populations, and they have become areas of net migration of the international population. Figure 3 shows that from 2013 to 2017, the net migration of the population from high-income countries was 15.84 million. It is worth noting that there is not a simple linear relationship between the scale of international population migration and income. Generally speaking, the population of middle- and high-income countries is more inclined to stay in the country to study, work and live. Middle-income countries and low- and middle-income countries have the largest net emigration scale, reaching 11.80 million and 10.24 million respectively. The reason is that people in middle-income countries and low- and middle-income countries can more afford the cost of international migration. People in low-income countries, because of their poor conditions, can hardly afford the cost of international migration, so the net migration scale is smaller. Of course, the size of the population of countries with different income types also affects the scale of net migration. On the whole, it still reflects that countries with slow population growth, low birthrate and aging population bear a greater risk of net population migration.

Data source: World Bank WDI2021
The main context of the imbalance of international population and political economy

The imbalance of international population and politics and economy will be manifested in many aspects of the international field, such as international diplomacy and international conflicts, international investment and technical barriers, free trade and trade protection, sovereignty and citizenship, and so on. From the perspective of historical evolution, we can see the main context of international population and political and economic imbalances from the changing trends of population proportions and GDP proportions in Western Europe, China, the United States, India, Africa, and Latin America over the past 400 years.

Figure 4 shows the change trend of the population proportion including the predicted value for 2030. It can be seen that in the 18th century, China played an important role in the world in terms of economy and population. Beginning in the 19th century, the proportion of China’s population began to decline, while the proportions of Western Europe and the United States increased, and the proportion of Western Europe exceeded that of the United States. After entering the 20th century, as the population proportions of Africa, Latin America, and India rose, the proportions of Western Europe and the United States began to decline. But in terms of economic weight, the 19th century can be said to be the European century. Its economic weight quickly left China behind, and it was much higher than that of the US economy. After World War I and World War II, the center of the world economy shifted to the United States. Figure 5 shows that the economic status of the United States surpassed the entire Western Europe around the middle of the 20th century. The biggest variable in the second half of the 20th century was China. By 2008, China’s share of the global economy was close to that of the United States. Of course, here is the result calculated by Maddison using the international dollar. If you replace it with the current dollar GDP ratio, the result will be different. But generally speaking, using purchasing power parity to measure economic aggregates is a more reasonable international comparison method.

Data source: Maddison2013

Data source: Maddison2013
At the beginning of the 20th century, in 1900, the world’s population was 1.56 billion. By the beginning of the 21st century, in 2000, the world’s population reached 6.08 billion. In other words, the population that mankind increased in 100 years of the 20th century was three times the population accumulated in the previous tens of thousands of years. Under the trend of total population growth, what is hidden is that the pace of population growth in different countries is different in different periods, that is, the progress of population transformation is different, which in turn leads to a new order of international population and political economy.

Three theories foretell the fate of international population and political and economic trends

The world population and political and economic imbalance have three theoretical backgrounds: one is Weber’s modern social theory, the other is Kuznets’s modern economic growth theory, and the third is Huntington’s theory of civilizational conflict. These three theories point out the great differences between the modern development of mankind and the traditional era from the three dimensions of society, economy and politics.

Weber believes that once humans enter modern society, they cannot go back. Lao Siguang highly praised Weber’s view that “modern culture is an established fact”, that is, there are some incompatible parts between modern society and pre-modern society. The emergence of modernity represents a difference in a historical stage. It is by no means simple Regional differences, once entered into modernity, there is no way to look back [1].

Through empirical analysis of national economic statistics, Kuznets put forward the problem of modern economic growth, which makes modern society and modern economic growth have a mutually constructive relationship. On the one hand, modern society is often accompanied by economic growth. On the other hand, economic growth has promoted the construction of social modernity. Kuznets defines modern economic growth as “a country’s long-term continuous growth in the ability to supply diversified goods and services. This growth in capacity is based on technological progress and the required institutional and ideological adjustments” [2].

Huntington’s theory is based on the perspective of international politics. Weber’s modern social theory and Kuznets’s modern economic growth theory incorporate national and civilized factors, making social analysis fall into the framework of nation-states, while economic growth Factors with conflicts of national interest. The theories of Weber, Kuznets, and Huntington predicted the fate of international population and political and economic trends.

The declining relationship between the international population and the political and economic structure has a very different meaning in pre-modern society and modern society. The problem of population imbalance has existed since ancient times. Due to the huge differences in natural geography, resource environment and climate among the continents of the world, the migration, flow and distribution of the global population is naturally concentrated in geographical areas with good natural conditions, and the phenomenon of human civilization is the first to occur in large rivers. The differences in population growth caused by the climatic and geographical conditions of different regions have often triggered large-scale population migration in history. The invasion of agricultural nations by nomads is actually a cumulative effect of slow population migration. Historical events such as the fall of the Western Roman Empire and the Five Unruly China are clear evidence. No wonder Huntington pointed out: “If population is fate, then population migration is the engine of history” [3].

If the international population migration before modern times is an important way to solve the local population imbalance, then after the establishment of modern countries, the difficulty of international population migration has greatly increased. The borders of pre-modern countries are blurred. The ruling class generally guards small urban areas or castles, and has weak control over the countryside. There are vast forests, lakes and wilderness between the castle and the castle, and a large amount of uncultivated land can meet the needs of the new population. Therefore, in the pre-modern period, the phenomenon of intertwined populations of different ethnic groups was very common. The result of this historical process is that it is difficult for many modern countries to retain a single ethnic group on the same territory. The ethnic conflicts in many regions reflect the frequent migration and interaction of ancient populations. For example, the relationship between the Israeli nation and the Palestinian nation in the Middle East, the relationship between the Slavic nation and the Germanic nation in the Balkans, the ethnic relationship between the East and the West in Ukraine, etc., as well as the Scottish issue in the United Kingdom, the Quebec issue in Canada, the Catalan issue in Spain, etc. Wait.

The Palestinian-Israeli conflict resulted in the death of a Palestinian. / Xinhua News Agency (Photo by Nidal)
Once a modern state is established, the issue of participation of different ethnic groups in the sharing of national sovereignty may become prominent, and in serious cases may cause a crisis of national secession. For example, Crimea in Ukraine and the conflict in eastern Ukraine in recent days. In this process, transnational ethnic identity may trigger political divisions within a country. Religious identity and cultural identity that transcend national boundaries are the theoretical background of Huntington’s “Clash of Civilizations”. The ruling ethnic group in a country may suspect the political loyalty of the ruling ethnic group and find excuses for ethnic cleansing, or may intervene in its internal affairs and support the opposition because of sympathy for the ruling ethnic group of the same race and the same ethnic group in another country, thereby causing conflicts. The degree of mutual trust between countries has been greatly reduced.

A historical example is the spread of anti-Japanese sentiment in the United States after the Pearl Harbor incident. At that time, there were about 127,000 Japanese citizens in the United States, most of whom lived on the west coast of the United States and were engaged in agriculture, fisheries, or small businesses. Among them, more than 40,000 were first-generation immigrants and about 80,000 were second- and third-generation immigrants. Compared with people of German and Italian descent, the scale is smaller, but easier to identify, and has become a target of public criticism. After the outbreak of the Pacific War, politicians and civilians on the west coast of the United States vigorously encouraged the government to expel the Japanese. Under public pressure, President Roosevelt issued Executive Order No. 9066 in 1942 and approved the deportation plan. A total of 110,000 Japanese residents were expelled, including 60,000 American citizens. These Japanese residents were forced to abandon or sell their properties at low prices and suffered humiliation. It was not until 1988 that the US Congress passed a bill to provide limited compensation to these people [4]. However, many people have already passed away. Is justice that is late counts as justice? How much money can compensate for the pain these people have suffered? This is a historical event that occurred in the United States, which is known as the cultural melting pot. The atrocities of the Nazis are well known. Similar events in other countries and regions are also in the history.

When we learned “Guwen Guan Zhi” when we were young, we would read that there was a famous “Remonstrative Book” by Li Si, which actually reflected the crisis of national identity caused by the migration and flow of population between countries during the Warring States Period. When the world was attacking each other, King Qin and his ministers doubted the loyalty of people from other countries to their own countries. Even now, many people may feel sympathy for this. The so-called non-self race must have different hearts. That’s what it means. The Western Jin Dynasty did not have a strict defense against the Yi Xia, which led to the subsequent five chaos in China. The Tang Dynasty re-used the generals, which led to the Anshi Rebellion and the separatism of the Fanzhen. All kinds of historical lessons made the insightful and scholar-official class in the Northern Song Dynasty begin to re-emphasize “respect the king and fight the barbarian.” It is a pity that the national strength is weak, and eventually he died of foreigners. Until the end of the Qing Dynasty, in the face of the powerful ships and guns of the great powers, they still advocated “learning from the barbarians to control barbarians”.

The imbalance between population and international politics and economy is often caused by the national characteristics of the population

Historical experience at home and abroad has shown that the problems brought about by international population migration are not just the optimal allocation of labor factors, but in many cases the integration or conflict between civilizations. The biggest difference between modern international population migration and pre-modern times lies in the establishment of modern sovereign states.

The imbalance between population and international politics and economy is often caused by the national characteristics of the population. Nationality is an important feature of the population of our time. The so-called nationality of population means that the total global population is managed and controlled by sovereign states. The population is the sovereign population. The United Nations has 193 member states, all of which are independent and sovereign states. When we talk about the world’s population, it is only ecologically meaningful. In fact, there is no political entity responsible for the world’s population. Therefore, when talking about controlling the world’s population, it is necessary to turn to the actions of sovereign states in the world. In 1974, the United Nations organized the first World People’s

The stock price plummeted continuously, and the company responded

A reporter from e company called the company’s director’s office as an investor. The staff said that the company had noticed the actual controller’s unexpected situation. This was the actual controller’s private matter, and the company did not know the cause of the incident. The company has contacted the actual controller to understand the incident, but there has been no response yet.
Beauty Lizhuang (605136), who “fired in the backyard”, has approached two lower limit, and its market value has evaporated by nearly 3 billion!

The stock price plummeted continuously

On Women’s Day, Beauty Lizhuang suspected a fire in the backyard. A user with the net name “Lieren Lizhuang Weng Shuhua” and the profile “I am Weng Shuhua himself, Liren Lizhuang No.001 employee” called on Weibo to complain against Huang Tao, the chairman and actual controller of Liren Lizhuang.

After the Weibo was released, the “Looking for a Husband” incident continued to be fermented by the beauty and makeup. As of press time, the Weibo has been reposted nearly 20,000 times and left nearly 2500 messages.

Affected by this, after the lower limit on March 9th, Liren Lizhuang opened the lower limit on the 10th, and then opened the lower limit. As of the midday close, it was still struggling near the lower limit. The market value of the two trading days evaporated by nearly 3 billion yuan, and the latest market value is 10.9 billion yuan.

A reporter from e company called the company’s director’s office as an investor. The staff said that the company had noticed the actual controller’s unexpected situation. This was the actual controller’s private matter, and the company did not know the cause of the incident. The company has contacted the actual controller to understand the incident, but there has been no response yet.

Weibo Voice

The “family turmoil” of Huang Tao, the chairman of Beauty Lizhuang, originated from a Weibo.

On March 8, a Weibo user with the account name “Liren Lizhuang Weng Shuhua” posted a long post, claiming to be Huang Tao’s wife, and was once the sales executive director of Liren Lizhuang. After receiving Huang Tao’s persuasion, she returned to the family and became a full-time wife. On Weibo, Weng Shuhua “condemned” Huang Tao for failing to fulfill his corresponding responsibilities, regardless of his family, his wife and children, and even “not even a human figure”.


The user said, “Liren Lizhuang Huang Tao, if you read this Weibo, I hope your conscience can make you remember that you have a home, everything your home has given you, and remember that you are a man with a wife and children. , Remember your responsibilities as a husband and father.”

At the same time, “Beauty Lizhuang Weng Shuhua” called herself “more like a single mother”. As the wife who witnessed the stage of operating from a Taobao store to a listed company with Huang Tao, she complained about her grievances on Weibo and called Huang Tao. “I hope your conscience can make you remember that you have a home.”

In order to attract more attention, Weng Shuhua also posted @汉理 Capital Chairman Qian Xuefeng, Alibaba Group founder Jack Ma, Alibaba Board Chairman Zhang Yong, Luo Zhenyu, papi sauce and others on Weibo.

Beauty Beauty was established in May 2010 and is headquartered in Shanghai. It is an online cosmetics marketing and retail service provider. The company’s main business revolves around Alibaba’s e-commerce platform to carry out e-commerce agency operations. Currently, it has obtained authentic authorization services for more than 60 global brands in China, including Fuli Fangsi, Sulwhasoo, Avene, Schwarzkopf, etc.

In the early stage of 2007-2012, Beauty and Beauty started its Taobao store, which was the first cosmetics agent to enter the Taobao Mall. It was the first batch of cosmetics operators to enter the Taobao Mall. It was in the growth period from 2012 to 2015. In 2012, it received Ali’s A round of financing; in 2015, it won Ali and other B rounds. The financing is now in the development period, and it has successively signed contracts with international groups such as L’Oreal, Amore, Henkel, Kanebo, etc., to accelerate the expansion of beauty and personal care brands, and has grown into the leading e-commerce agency operation leader in the domestic beauty industry.

The most well-known incident of Liren Lizhuang was in April 2016, when she sold 22 million yuan to shoot the first post ad of the then-popular video blogger papi sauce.

Liren Lizhuang went public in September 2020, with an issue price of 12.23 yuan per share and a total of 489 million yuan of funds raised.

According to the prospectus, Liren Lizhuang is mainly engaged in e-commerce retail and brand marketing. Among them, e-commerce retail business is its core, and e-commerce business is mainly carried out through Tmall. From 2017 to 2019, the company’s e-commerce retail business revenue through Tmall was 3.15 billion, 3.34 billion and 3.69 billion yuan, accounting for more than 99% of the e-commerce retail business revenue that year.

In the first three quarters of 2020, Liren Lizhuang achieved revenue of 2.464 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.72%; net profit was 192 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.90%.

Contact response

The prospectus shows that Weng Shuhua does not own shares of Liren Lizhuang.

As of the end of the third quarter of last year, Mu Huangtao held 33.49% of Liren Lizhuang’s shares and was the controlling shareholder and actual controller. Alibaba (China) Network Technology Co., Ltd. is the second largest shareholder with a shareholding ratio of 17.59%.

The protagonist of this incident, Weng Shuhua is not the first time that Weng Shuhua has appeared in the public eye. During the listing of Beauty Beauty, in 2019, Weng Shuhua was interviewed by the media as Beauty Beauty Beauty 001 employee and Huang Tao’s wife, and was called by the relevant media as ” A virtuous and virtuous entrepreneur”.

Weng Shuhua recalled his and her husband’s entrepreneurial experience and said that in 2006, Huang Tao had acute diabetes and began to go home to recover. At that time, when e-commerce was on the rise, Weng Shuhua and his wife started as a shop in Taobao to subsidize the family. While taking care of Huang Tao who was sick at home, Weng Shuhua ran a Taobao shop, which is now Liren Lizhuang.

Later, Huang Tao devoted most of his energy to the operation of the soaring beauty and makeup, and Weng Shuhua also slowly “retreated to the second line” and became a full-time wife, taking care of the children.

Another protagonist’s situation, according to public information, in 1998, Huang Tao graduated from Tsinghua University with a master’s degree in automation, and for the next two years, Huang Tao taught at Tsinghua University. After serving as an executive at General Motors in the United States for two years, Huang Tao started his own business in November 2002 and successively founded Fractalist and Beauty.

The capital market responded quickly to this. After the opening of the market on March 9, the share price of Liren Lizhuang was quickly hit by the lower limit. In the morning of March 10, the share price of Liren Lizhuang fell sharply again and once fell by the limit. As of midday, it fell 9.51%, and the total market value was 10.9 billion yuan.

A reporter from e company called the company’s director’s office as an investor. The staff said that the company had noticed the actual controller’s unexpected situation. This was the actual controller’s private matter, and the company did not know the cause of the incident. The company has contacted the actual controller to understand the incident, but there has been no response yet.

Regarding the recent stock price fluctuations, the staff said that if the subsequent stock price reaches the exchange’s stock price change announcement standard, the company will issue a change announcement. However, the actual controller has not yet responded to the company on this matter. If there is a follow-up response, the company will issue a statement through Weibo, official account, etc., investors are advised to pay attention.

This country is “disappearing”?

At present, primary and secondary schools across the country have begun to start, but in neighboring South Korea, March is usually the beginning of a new school year. Recently in South Korea, some schools are welcoming new students, but some schools have no choice but to close because they cannot recruit new students.

This country is "disappearing"?

Last year, South Korea experienced “negative growth” for the first time in population, and the issue of population decline along with the arrival of the new semester aroused great concern in Korean society.

△ CCTV Finance “Tianxia Finance” column video
In an elementary school less than three kilometers from downtown Busan, South Korea, students could have been seen at this time, but now it is silent.

This school had only 4 freshmen enrolled last year, and the whole school had only 57 students. At the end of last semester, the school merged with another elementary school and the students transferred collectively. This elementary school, which was founded 60 years ago, was officially closed. The current school number is He school nameplate has been removed.

Recently, in Gangwon Province and other parts of Korea, elementary schools have been closed. Even in Seoul, the most densely populated city, nearly 20% of elementary school students have fewer than 50 students. Due to the decrease in the school-age enrollment population, a total of 30 primary, middle and high schools were closed in South Korea last year alone.

Statistics from the Korea Statistics Office show that last year, South Korea’s total fertility rate fell to the lowest level in history of 0.84, far below the 2.1 required to maintain the current population status. The current fertility rate is almost the lowest in the world.

With the decrease in the number of births, changes in the population structure of local cities in South Korea are particularly obvious. In Chungcheongnam-do, located in the central and western regions of South Korea, the number of local maternity hospitals has decreased by 20% and nursing homes have doubled in the past ten years. Today, there are many small schools in South Korea. No maternity hospitals can even be seen in towns.

Affected by years of low fertility rate and population aging, it is estimated that according to current demographic trends, in 2065, the number of people over 65 in South Korea will exceed the working-age population, and South Korea’s pensions will be exhausted in 2055. .

Some Korean media even commented that if the population problem is not resolved, let alone national competitiveness, it will be a question of whether the country will exist in the future.

The reasons why Koreans are unwilling to have children are mainly pressures from housing, employment, and women returning to the workplace after giving birth. In order to stimulate population growth, all parts of South Korea are currently resorting to hiring.

Not long ago, the South Korean government announced that it would raise the monthly childcare subsidy from 2022 and provide a one-time additional maternity subsidy of approximately RMB 12,000. In addition, it will also introduce policies such as parental leave for both spouses.

The market hotly discusses the global commodity “bull market”

The recent increase in commodity prices has been very prominent. Although vaccine research and development have been introduced repeatedly and the future prospects are more optimistic, the potential risks or even blows caused by this round of commodity price increases cannot be taken lightly.

Inflation, global commodities, and economic recovery, among these words, who will take over whom, and who will promote whom? It seems that only by clarifying the inner logic can we further confirm the issue of the “sustainability” of commodities.

Commodity financialization is a US dollar strategy and tactic. Along with the reality of the US epidemic and the pressure of investment, the tendency of public opinion on the status of the US dollar to be unstable, subverted, or replaced is more prominent. However, looking at the essence through the phenomenon, through the logical reasoning of the depreciation of the US dollar, the rise of US stocks, and the rise of US debt, it seems that the foresight of the US dollar strategy and the flexible and effective tactics can be seen.

The market hotly discusses the global commodity "bull market"

Since the epidemic, the extremes and extremes of global delivery are obvious. On the one hand, the U.S. has led to extremes in its investment. Its fiscal deficit hit a record high of 3.14 trillion U.S. dollars, and the U.S. money supply was 19 trillion U.S. dollars. It is still a fact that the U.S. dollar has sufficient liquidity, but the potential pressure on the U.S. has been effectively resolved. Therefore, the U.S. dollar makes full use of market share advantages, dominant power privileges, experience and ability priority mechanism, a full range of market and product combinations and diversified mobility.

In particular, the U.S. dollar directly covers and implements its unique pricing power and quotation power to various sectors around the world, and the market presents a financial and commodity linkage effect and a proliferation stimulus effect. The stability of the U.S. dollar, the stock index soaring, the soaring commodity, and the bond market turn are crossed, and the intertwined situation is dazzling and chaotic. The financialization of commodity concepts is a new trend, new format, new structure, new trend, and new pattern for the dollar to consolidate its foundation and expand its power.

On the other hand, global interest rates have generally fallen, central banks in various countries have loosened monetary competition, and market liquidity has increased. But so far, the epidemic has not subsided, the economy has not yet recovered, commodity prices have risen out of reality, and the expansion of the financial-oriented situation has caused commodity prices to soar and plummet, but this has exceeded the analysis or expectations of financial theory and logical benchmarking.

Commodity logic and cycles are forced to be a financial framework, making big finance, hyperfinance, and full finance face new challenges and new structures. At present, no other country or currency can create and create this situation, because it is true that qualifications and capabilities lag behind and lag behind the United States and the US dollar, and the US dollar’s ​​international monetary system and the international financial system’s monopoly remains unchanged.

Commodity speculation is a speculation of market sentiment. It is precisely because of the advancement of the financialization of these commodities that market sentiment, public opinion, and short-termization are very serious, and speculation and speculation are an indisputable fact. Therefore, the bear market plummeted by 20% is no longer able to measure the prospects, and the bull market surged by 20% can no longer predict the future. The situation of excess liquidity or flooding is irrepressible and restrained.

Starting from June 2020, domestic bulk commodities have continued to rise. Among them, copper rose by 38%, paper rose by 50%, plastics rose by 35%, aluminum rose by 37%, iron rose by 30%, glass rose by 30%, zinc alloy rose by 48%, and stainless steel rose by 48%. Up 45%, IC up 100%. At the end of February 2021, the prices of raw materials were completely out of control, and they jumped wildly by 20% and 30% respectively. Some specialty papers even jumped by 3,000 yuan at a time. The overall price increase of raw materials such as plastics, textile materials, copper, energy, electronic components, industrial base paper, etc. confuses the production plans of terminal brand manufacturers, and the phenomenon of production shutdown due to price suspension has occurred.

In 2021, the price of copper rose by more than 70,000 yuan per ton after 14 consecutive trading days in 2021, reaching the highest level in 9 years. Since April last year, the price of Lun copper has soared from 5294 US dollars to the current 9092 US dollars, an increase of 71%; , Plastics, stainless steel and other raw materials have increased by more than 30%; electric brands have increased prices due to incredible raw material prices for bulk commodities.

The market speculation through the economic form or public opinion orientation is obviously the result of the hype atmosphere and extreme technology, because the actual production and consumption demand of these products and raw materials has not yet been presented, but due to economic losses or psychological insecurity, the losses inside the embankment are compensated for outside the embankment. Speculation that stimulates desires by simple thinking is inevitable, because capital turnover, liquidity scale, and cycle shielding are all reasons for short-term speculative strategies and tendencies, but irrationality is the main reason, and this kind of market may not be sustainable. On the contrary, in the future, the original normal logic and circular laws of commodity prices are bound to deteriorate. The abnormality, extremeness, and abnormality are risk pressures and possible crises.

Figure 1: The price trend of copper, iron ore fines and aluminum futures from 2020 to now
Through this kind of market situation and phenomenon, the situation that the macro economy or the micro market will face in the future is worthy of in-depth consideration. In particular, the above-mentioned particular, complex and even strategic issues deserve more attention and attention. I worry more about the future. After all, there are national competition plans and plans behind the market. In particular, the current international competition pattern and environment are basically unchanged. The economic strength and financial power of major developed countries are not in a weakened or diminished state. On the contrary, they are strengthening recovery and even strengthening the leading process.

Looking at future development trends from two dimensions

It is expected that the economy will be suppressed in the future. The current upward adjustment of the world economy is relatively clear. Although the background and reality of this round of global economic ups and downs are not bad, the economic upward cycle is clear, the sudden and heavy suppression of the epidemic is sudden and heavy, and the economic recovery is logical and realistic. However, the booming and worsening of the above-mentioned commodities may restrain or even contain the economy, and the uncertain factors of the economic outlook are complex and uncertain. The current US economic indicators and prospects can prove to be certain. For example, the PMI has jumped to 60, the unemployment rate has dropped to 6.3%, and economic growth is positive. This is enough to show that the US commodity financialization strategy has economic foundation and future prospective support. On the contrary, other economies in the world will face economic repression. The economic recovery that eases production and production due to the epidemic may be restrained and controlled due to the cost and price of goods, which may further highlight the leading or superiority of the US economy.

In addition, the U.S. dollar’s coverage and monopoly of commodities is already a fact, and the U.S. long-term strategy orchestrates the direction of short-term indicators is very clear and clear, and economic volatility or adverse factors should be prepared. According to the current environmental factors and the complex situation of relations, if commodity prices restrict economic recovery, turbulence in overseas markets will continue to intensify, and external shocks will not be conducive to normal domestic economic recovery, which is an adjustment of international relations. In addition, the current geopolitical and economic and trade relations have not eased, and even worse than expected, the prospects may increase. The transfer of problems and the evolution of the transfer of crisis mode is worthy of prevention and vigilance.

Figure 2: Trends in U.S. inflation and U.S. federal benchmark interest rates since 2020
Forecast 2. The policy is expected to be adjusted. As the economic trend changes, the potential risk of commodity rise is the advent of rising inflation. With the rapid and magnitude of commodity rise, high inflation may occur quickly, which poses a greater challenge to the current low interest rate and negative interest rate environment. There are already expectations in the market that the upcoming March meeting of the Federal Reserve may distort the operation (OT), or may adjust the interest rate of deposit reserves, which will directly involve or affect the interest rate level and structure of the US bond market.

At present, the Fed’s excess reserve ratio interest rate is 0.1%, and it is expected that the increase to 0.15% in the future may drive the interest rate for overnight repurchase operations to increase by 5 basis points from 0%. The two important pillars of US dollar hegemony are the exchange rate and the interest rate. At present, the US dollar exchange rate is comfortable, self-sufficient, and depreciated to ensure effective success. However, the US dollar interest rate is still passive, weak and weak. Therefore, the forward-looking nature of the US financial strategy lies in the restoration and dominance of the US dollar interest rate hegemony, not in such a simplistic view of the market. In particular, the rise in oil or commodities is the basic logic to boost inflation. Gold’s plummet reversal and high rise will adapt to the characteristics of inflation. It is an inevitable method and strategy to adjust. The preparatory or design between the rise and fall principles is the secret of masters.

It is expected that sensitive issues such as the global epidemic, economy, finance, and commodities are in the stage of integration and reorganization. Insufficient preparation and understanding of the world is the biggest risk, and the United States is well prepared, fully prepared, long-term, and comprehensive. It is worthy of vigilance. Complicated situations such as economic competition, national competition, currency competition, discourse competition, institutional competition, and model competition are unprecedented. New models of crises and new logic of risks are worthy of in-depth analysis, prudent prevention and response.

Caixin China’s manufacturing PMI fell to 50.9 in February

The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) for February 2021 announced on March 1st recorded 50.9. Although it has been in the expansion range for the tenth consecutive month, it has fallen for three consecutive months and has fallen since June 2020. The lowest value indicates that the marginal effect of the manufacturing recovery has further weakened.

Caixin China's manufacturing PMI fell to 50.9 in February

This trend is consistent with the manufacturing PMI of the National Bureau of Statistics. The manufacturing PMI for February 2021 announced by the National Bureau of Statistics was 50.6, which was 0.7 percentage points lower than the previous month and also slowed down for three consecutive months.

Manufacturing supply and demand continued to expand, but the expansion rate slowed down. The production index and new order index in February recorded their lowest values ​​in the past ten and nine months, respectively. External demand continues to drag down aggregate demand, and the new export order index has fallen sharply below the line of prosperity for the second consecutive month. In the survey, the interviewed companies emphasized the negative impact of the winter epidemic at home and abroad on the market’s prosperity.

Affected by the slowdown in the growth rate of supply and demand, the job market continued to be under pressure. The employment index in February remained in the contraction range for the third consecutive month, and the rate of decline has expanded. After the market has recovered and the pace has slowed down, companies are not eager to fill up the vacancies left by employees. Nevertheless, the number of backlogs of work that month fell for the first time in nine months, indicating weak market demand.

The price index continues to rise, and inflationary pressures continue to increase. In February, the purchasing price index of manufacturing enterprises was significantly higher than the rise and fall line, but the growth rate slowed down slightly. Respondents said that the prices of raw materials, especially industrial metals, continue to rise rapidly, and transportation prices have also risen. The increase in cost-end prices was also partly transmitted to the demand side. In February, the ex-factory prices of manufacturing enterprises continued to rise, but the growth rate slowed down.

Despite the slowdown in the expansion of supply and demand, operators of manufacturing companies are confident that the epidemic situation at home and abroad will improve. In February, the production and operation expectations index jumped to the second highest point since September 2014.

According to Wang Zhe, senior economist at the Caixin Think Tank, the recovery momentum of the manufacturing industry in February has further weakened, the growth of supply and demand has slowed, employment pressures have increased, and inflationary pressures have continued to increase. Nonetheless, companies are more optimistic about future expectations, and market confidence is mainly derived from the past. The accumulation of experience in epidemic prevention and control for more than a year, especially the unfavorable autumn and winter season is coming to an end. At present, it seems that both the need to carefully care for the economic recovery in the post-epidemic era and the need to pay sufficient attention to inflation are the main challenges facing the policy.

This time the Italian ambassador was shot dead

I once heard such a story, a colleague in Africa, one day at home to write a story, suddenly someone patted him on the shoulder, he thought other colleagues joking, said: stop stop that now now BBB1, is in a hurry to write.Patted more heavy, look back, the gangster took a gun to him.

Decades later, the tragedy is still happening.In the news, just two months before Zhong Zhiwei and his wife were killed, seven Chinese citizens were killed in South Africa.

Finance, economics, international

The outlook for Africa is very worrying.

A survey shows that Africa is taking the place of the Middle East as the world’s front line against terrorism.

Africa has a lot of young people, but they suffer from poverty, marginalization, unemployment, and poor governance in some countries, and they are a natural breeding ground for terrorism.

Ambassadors have been killed, most impressively, in at least three cases in the past few years.

The first was Benghazi, where the U.S. ambassador to Libya was killed in 2012 while trapped inside the consulate in Benghazi.It has also become a blot on Mrs Clinton.

The second was the shooting of the Russian ambassador.In 2016, the Russian ambassador to Turkey was shot in the head by a Turkish youth on Light Day.Putin personally attended his funeral, tears in the corners of his eyes.

The third, this time the Italian ambassador was shot dead.

They are still great powers, but even the ambassadors of these great powers have not escaped the bad luck.

Not to mention ordinary citizens.

So, last year, there was a piece of news about Africa, which touched me very much.After the war broke out in Tigre State of Ethiopia, the Chinese Embassy in Ethiopia made an immediate decision and organized the evacuation of our compatriots.More than 1,100 kilometers, the war environment, the road of evacuation can be imagined difficult, but fortunately, the final safe evacuation.

Ethiopia is a very friendly country, I was there the year before last, and now the war is back and people are suffering. It is a great sigh.


Our diplomatic environment would be hostile

They are still great powers, but even the ambassadors of these great powers have not escaped the bad luck.

Not to mention ordinary citizens.

Finance, economics, international

So, last year, there was a piece of news about Africa, which touched me very much.After the war broke out in Tigre State of Ethiopia, the Chinese Embassy in Ethiopia made an immediate decision and organized the evacuation of our compatriots.More than 1,100 kilometers, the war environment, the road of evacuation can be imagined difficult, but fortunately, the final safe evacuation.

Ethiopia is a very friendly country, I was there the year before last, and now the war is back and people are suffering. It is a great sigh.

Today I pay attention to Africa because Africa has a very close relationship with China.We have many friendly countries there, a large number of economic projects, and a large number of overseas Chinese and expatriate staff, including many of my colleagues.

As the ancients said, a chaotic country cannot enter.But the reality is, we can’t.

Frankly speaking, without the dedication of these expatriates and the efforts of Chinese diplomats, China’s status as a major country today would not be possible, and our diplomatic environment would be even more hostile.

But they’re giving.The hard work of expatriates is not only to sacrifice themselves, sometimes to sacrifice their youth and children, but also to sacrifice their health and even their lives, especially in those turbulent African countries.

The fact that a UN convoy can be hijacked and an Italian ambassador can be shot highlights the perniciously dangerous conditions in some places.

Many people sigh, out of the country is often more patriotic.The truth is simple, look at Africa look at the Middle East, even compared with Europe and the United States, of course, China still has a lot of shortcomings, still need to continue to work hard, but sometimes people can not help feeling that it is better to live in China.

What we take for granted is what many countries look forward to most.