Can the stock price of stone technology continue to be “Crazy” when the ban is lifted

It has been less than a year since it was listed, but stone technology (688169. SH), which is the most expensive new stock on the science and technology innovation board, is really crazy in 2020. As a technology company with Slam (real-time positioning and map building) algorithm as the core technology, stone technology does not have the blessing of “Maotai flavor technology”, nor does it have the first market share, but its stock price has fully increased five times in 2020.

Can the stock price of stone technology continue to be "Crazy" when the ban is lifted

Since December 16, 2020, after breaking through the thousand yuan mark, the stock price of stone technology has basically started to dance on the thousand yuan, making people call “can’t understand”. “The confidence of the industry, the blessing of science and technology, and outstanding performance” are the reasons why stone technology thinks that the capital market is optimistic about itself.


Can the stock price of stone technology continue to be crazy? On February 2, stone technology rose 3.51% to close at 1210 yuan per share on that day. Source: Oriental


However, with the progress of the industry, the whole market is rapidly turning from blue to red, and the original algorithm advantages of stone technology are gradually catching up with the friends. Whether the stone, which has the traditional giants before and the new comers after, can stabilize the stock price and continue the “madness” when the ban is lifted, has become the biggest focus of the whole industry at the beginning of the year.


Dance for thousands of yuan


On the evening of January 27, stone technology handed over its first year’s report card: in 2020, the company’s annual net profit to its parent company is expected to increase by at least 537 million yuan year on year, with an increase of at least 68.61%; only the incremental part will exceed the annual net profit of corworth, the largest domestic competitor. It is estimated that the net profit of stone technology will at least exceed 1.3 billion yuan in 2020.


After the issuance of the performance notice, heavyweight securities companies including Tianfeng securities and Huatai Securities successively rated stone technology as “overweight” or “buy”; after listing, stone technology has received 64 securities companies’ research reports, of which 61 are recommended to be overweight or buy.


The organization’s enthusiasm for stone technology does not just stay at the level of research and report. Since its listing, the total number of shareholders of stone technology has decreased from 16300 to 5773 at the end of the third quarter. According to the annual report of public funds in 2020, a total of 68 funds and 26 companies hold 4.8827 million shares of stone technology, accounting for about 30% of the total number of circulating shares of stone technology.


In addition, in the fourth quarter of 2020, the public offering fund will further increase its holdings of 1133100 shares of stone technology. And the top ten circulating shareholders of stone technology are all institutions, among which the total holding market value of five public funds under Jingshun Great Wall exceeds 1.8 billion yuan.


Can the stock price of stone technology continue to be crazy? Top 10 circulation shareholders of stone technology


In fact, judging from the current 1000 yuan share price of stone technology, the price of its first-hand stock has exceeded 100000 yuan, which is an indisputable fact that it is difficult for retail investors to play.


In addition, on February 22, stone technology will also usher in the lifting of restrictions on the sale of shares for the first time after listing, with the lifting scale of 28.57 million shares, accounting for 42.64% of its total share capital.

Can the stock price of stone technology continue to be "Crazy" when the ban is lifted

By the end of the third quarter of 2020, stone technology founder Chang Jing held 23.24% of the company’s shares, Shunwei capital and Tianjin Jinmi investment held 9.64% and 8.89% respectively, ranking second and third.


Interestingly, although the current red purple, but the beginning of the listing of stone technology has also set a science and technology board two first. The issue price of stone technology is 271.12 yuan / share, which not only sets a record for the issue price of new shares on the science and technology innovation board, but also sets a new high for the issue price of a shares. In addition, the amount of online investors to buy new shares is also the first on the science and technology innovation board.


According to the issuance results disclosed by stone technology at that time, online investors gave up a total of 55600 shares, and the amount of online investors gave up subscription was 15.0756 million yuan.


Stone technology also told that “the company’s share price is high and its circulation is small. Only by not being lost in temptation due to listing and maintaining entrepreneurial spirit can it occupy a place in the market.”.


Wild market, take off


It’s not only stone technology that has seen its share price soar. Another giant robot sweeper in China, corworth (603486. SH), has also experienced a wave of take-off in 2020, from around 20 yuan at the beginning of the year to about 90 yuan at the end of the year.


This has a lot to do with the basic orientation of the whole market.


Sweeping robots were not just needed in the domestic market before. In 1996, the Swedish appliance giant Electrolux launched the first household level “trilobite” sweeping robot. According to relevant information, the product is no longer very different from today’s floor sweeping robot in form: the height of 13 cm can clean the table and the bed bottom, the product can avoid obstacles through ultrasonic detection and build room map, and the subsequent upgrade adds infrared sensors, but there is a big gap in “intelligence” with the present.


In September 2002, iRobot launched Roomba series of random impact floor sweeping robots. Its greatest significance lies in its patented invention “three-stage cleaning structure”. This cleaning structure with “edge brush + rolling brush + suction port” has been used up to now. Since 2016, with the rapid development of AI, laser positioning, big data algorithm and other technologies, sweeping robots have begun to integrate with various new technologies, and the mainstream development direction of products has also begun to anchor.


The domestic sweeping robot market started late. According to Euromonitor International Statistics, in 2015, about 206 000 sweeping robots were sold in China, which rose to 5.44 million in 2019, ranking the first in the world, far exceeding 2.745 million in the United States and 2.384 million in Western Europe. At the same time, more than 90% of the production and manufacturing of sweeping robots are concentrated in China.


Can the stock price of stone technology continue to be crazy? Market penetration of floor sweeping robots in China source: foresight Industry Research Institute


Even so, the Chinese market still has a lot of room for development. According to the forecast of China Merchants Securities, the domestic market of floor sweeping robots is estimated to have about 15 million units. According to 250 million urban households, the penetration rate is only 6%, far lower than 10% in Japan, Europe and 13% in North America.


Founder Securities has also estimated that the number of floor sweeping robots in the global core market will reach 100 million in 2020, which is 3.3 times of that in 2019. However, even with the rapid growth, the penetration rate of global floor sweeping robots is less than 10%, and the industry ceiling is far from being reached.


Obviously, compared with the traditional small appliances, the sweeper robot essentially realizes the complete replacement of human power, which is unmatched by other small appliances in product experience. With the post-80s and post-90s gradually becoming the backbone of society, this kind of user group also has a natural affinity for high-tech products. Under the background of increasing product reputation, users are willing to taste new products.


In addition, COVID-19 made the public’s home time greatly extended, the enhancement of household labor intensity and the demand for family environmental hygiene were further developed. The market of sweeper gradually changed from a “blind spot” to a “pain spot”.


In the overseas market, iRobot’s U.S. market has achieved a year-on-year growth of 12.6% in the second quarter, and its sales almost doubled in the third quarter. According to the global search popularity of Google Trends, in 2020, the search popularity peak of sweeping robot will increase by 19% year on year, while the search popularity peak of stone will increase by more than 60% year on year.


And stone technology also told that in the first half of 2020, the company’s overseas direct revenue will be 560 million yuan, and many products in North America and Western Europe will enter the top 20 of Amazon’s sales.


On the one hand is the rapid outbreak of industry demand, on the other hand is far from being developed market. Under all kinds of favorable conditions, the relevant individual stocks will take off in 2020. However, it is still unknown whether this capital Carnival will last forever or be destroyed.


Different stones


Compared with its main competitors, stone technology is too young.


In 2014, Chang Jing, the former head of Baidu maps, jumped out of the software circle to establish stone technology and stepped into the hardware field, but stone technology at that time was not well-known. It was not until Xiaomi’s investment and the launch of the first “Mijia sweeping robot” in 2016 that stone technology gradually became well known.


But at that time, corworth had been working in the field of home cleaning for 18 years, and the American company iRobot had more than half of the global market share of floor sweeping robots.


Fortunately, the young stone technology was born at the right time, and the asset light Internet operation mode was at its peak in 2016. On the surface, stone technology is inferior to the old manufacturers in the first mover advantages, product channels, brand awareness, production capacity and other aspects, but these disadvantages are not fatal defects in the era of industrial division.


On the contrary, relying on the Xiaomi ecological chain system, stone technology focuses its development on product R & D and design. OEM factories such as xinwanda are responsible for production and manufacturing. Its sales channels are mainly online, but there are also support from MI stores and dealers offline. This means that compared with traditional manufacturers, stone technology has an advantage in sales cost control and younger team.


In addition, although the floor sweeping robot is a hardware product, the motherboard, motor, wheel, etc. of its hardware part in the whole industrial system have been very mature; in fact, the specific cleaning efficiency is mainly determined by the software algorithm. The stone technology innovation team represented by Changjing is basically from Baidu and Microsoft, and naturally has advantages in the field of algorithm.


Can the stock price of stone technology continue to be crazy? T7 Pro products released by stone technology in 2020


Stone technology also mentioned to the observer that the floor sweeping robot is a product combining software and hardware. Stone is the first manufacturer of large-scale mass production of LDS module (laser direct structure, namely lidar), leading the floor sweeping robot industry into the LDS era, and starting to explore AI binocular vision obstacle avoidance technology in 2020.


No “burden” means that stone technology can run light.


At present, in terms of profit, although the gross profit rate of stone technology is about 50% in the industry average, its net profit rate of more than 30% has far exceeded that of its peers in the industry. The company’s revenue has also increased from 200 million yuan in 2016 to 4.2 billion yuan in 2019, with a compound annual growth rate of 184%, far exceeding the 18% growth rate of domestic veteran manufacturer corworth.


According to the online channel monitoring data of Ovi cloud in 2020, corworth still ranks first in the market with a share of 40.9%, Xiaomi and Shitou technology rank second and third with a share of 15.7% and 11% respectively, and the start-up company Yunjing also has a share of 10.7%.


Can the stock price of stone technology continue to be crazy? Proportion of online retail sales from 2019 to 2020 source: Ovi cloud


However, it is worth noting that at present, only corworth products can cover all price segments in China. Xiaomi mainly focuses on the price range of 1000-2000 yuan, while stone technology mainly focuses on the price range of 2000-3000 yuan.


Can stones continue to be “Crazy”?


Although it has achieved good results since its establishment, there are still a series of problems to be solved. Millet is a barrier that can’t be crossed.


In September 2017, stone technology, which is not willing to only do OEM business, began to push its own brand, which made the company directly compete with Xiaomi brand. Although the proportion of Xiaomi’s revenue to stone technology has been declining year by year in recent years, the two sides are still deeply bound in many aspects, such as sharing OEM and technology patents.


In the prospectus of stone technology, there are as many as ten risks related to Xiaomi, and even the selection of OEM manufacturers lacks a certain degree of autonomy.


In the first half of 2020, the proportion of related party transaction revenue between stone technology and Xiaomi has declined to 13.75%. Stone technology also told observer that the company will further reduce the proportion of OEM and increase the promotion of its own brand.


Can the stock price of stone technology continue to be crazy? At the level of foundry, stone technology even faces the restriction of Xiaomi. Source: Stone Technology prospectus


However, the decoupling of the brand can not alleviate the dependence of stone technology on millet. Because stone technology is a typical asset light operation mode, it means that stone technology can create ultra-high profits with the average gross profit level of the industry. In essence, it relies on the dividend of millet ecological chain, and this dividend will become increasingly unstable with the decoupling of both sides.


The relationship between the two sides began to become more and more delicate. In the equity incentive assessment, stone technology pays special attention to the promotion of its own brand sales, and Xiaomi has been looking for new partners since 2019, including zhuimi, yunmi, Yinxing, etc.


In this series of new partners, seeking technology has a similar technical background with stone technology. From Xiaomi’s point of view, it’s not difficult to be able to hold a red stone, and then hold a red one.


Stone technology also told that the company is full of confidence in its future, and Xiaomi is still the second largest shareholder of the company. Stone technology believes that it can work with Xiaomi to promote the technological progress of the industry, promote product updating and iteration, and bring more beautiful user experience to consumers.


Moreover, with the development of the whole industry, algorithm technology is no longer the unique skill of stone technology, and each head manufacturer can no longer form an advantage over competitors in terms of product cleaning effect. Differentiated customer experience has become a new customer password.


Can the stock price of stone technology continue to be crazy? Proportion of retail sales of online head brands from 2019 to 2020 and year-on-year data source: Ovi cloud


For example, in 2020, Yunjing, a new brand that has sprung up, will directly reach the market price of more than 3000 yuan by virtue of the selling points of “sweeping and towing integration” and “self washing mop”. Its annual market share is comparable to that of stone technology.


While focusing on the high-end market, coves, an old brand manufacturer, has also launched a new type of washable floor sweeper, which solves the problem of cleaning the whole family with a small rag by realizing the closed-loop cleaning work of “dust collection, floor mopping and self-cleaning”.


This also shows from another angle that although there are certain barriers in the floor sweeping robot industry, there are still many differences between the old giants and the new manufacturers.