Market judgment divergent “group” sentiment is expected to gradually subside

Recent market shock adjustment. According to the data, the median price earnings ratio (PE) of the top 50 stocks in the public offering fund has reached 66 times, and the PE of 16 stocks has exceeded 100 times. There are more and more discussions about over valuation of core assets, public offering of group stocks or looseness among institutions. Institutions generally believe that some of the core assets are overvalued, if there is no performance support, or there is a risk of “killing valuation”.


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Market judgment divergent "group" sentiment is expected to gradually subside

Last week, among the top 50 stocks in the public offering fund, many stocks were significantly adjusted. Institutions believe that this is mainly due to the phased climax of fund issuance since the end of 2020, the burst funds carrying a lot of funds into the market, and many leading stocks rising too fast. However, the lack of stability of these incremental funds and the marginal tightening signal of monetary environment lead to the increase of market volatility.


On the whole, people in the industry generally believe that there will be no systemic risk in the market as a whole, but it is difficult for some stocks that perform less than expected to maintain their overvalues.


“The overall valuation of a shares is now in a position of” medium to high. ” Xiangju capital said that the current capital volume does not support the market to rise very large or continuously. “Since December 2020, the share prices of many leading companies in the industry have increased dramatically, but the current liquidity environment does not support the overall general rise of the market. Some highly valued companies, if there is no high performance growth to match, there will be a squeeze process. ”


There are different opinions among the organizations


For the short-term trend of group stocks, institutions have different views.


Some institutions believe that the majority of conglomerates are difficult to collapse in the short term. The fund manager of a large public fund company in Beijing believes that the group is the result of the similar research framework of public funds, mainly because the analysis methods and investment objectives of public funds are similar. Whether the group can succeed or not depends on whether the industry prosperity and profit growth of the target company are in line with expectations. As for the valuation level, it is secondary. “In the process of continuous influx of funds, the short-term performance of these conglomerates will still be very good.” The fund manager said.


A 10 billion level private investment manager said that the essence of group is the change of the investor structure behind: “in 2014 and 2015, the investors in the A-share market were mainly retail investors, the types of investors were rich, and the preferred stock types were not consistent, so all kinds of stocks had the opportunity to show. However, in the past two years, the proportion of A-share institutional investors has become larger and larger, and the public offering funds have burst out frequently. The preference for these funds is no longer scattered, but rather “core assets” such as big white horse, which is determined by the attributes of investors and will not change easily. ”


He judged that in the future, with the increasing proportion of institutionalization, the above trend will continue, and the so-called “group” will not be disintegrated.


Pan Yao asset believes that the extreme market probability will breed new differences and new directions, and the future investment ideas will come from the bottom up. The extreme group market, bring most stocks down, and with the group mood gradually subsided, market panic will lead to further miscarriage.


For those companies with high barriers to entry and certain future performance growth, adjustment is an opportunity to “get on the bus”.


Some institutions believe that from the perspective of the whole A-share market, the digestion ability of valuation is relatively strong. A fund manager believes that the market style is likely to shift to small and medium-sized companies. With the continuous recovery of macro economy, small and medium-sized enterprises are growing. If the profit model is sustainable, institutions will pay more attention to small and medium-sized stocks, and eventually increase the proportion of relevant allocation.