The Spring Festival is approaching the start of the Spring Festival. The strong demand for Baijiu will help the relevant companies to achieve good results in the first quarter of 2021, and is one of the important reasons for the strong performance of Baijiu stocks.
Why Baijiu shares again rise? Baijiu just needs stronger spring festival.
Financial reporter Zhang Jianfeng, Yang Xiuhong, Feng Yiying
In January 25, 2021, the Shanghai stock index hit 3637.10 high points, and the Baijiu stocks before the callback rose again, becoming a major scenic spot for A shares.
As of the end of the day, 18 Baijiu listed companies, 9 companies rose by over 5% share price. Among them, Luzhou Laojiao (000568. SZ), Gujing gongjiu (000596. SZ) and Yanghe shares (002304. SZ) rose strongly, followed by Jinshiyuan (603369. SH) with an increase of 8.49%, while the shares of Guizhou Maotai (600519. SH) and Wuliangye (000858. SZ) rose by 4.57% and 6.81% respectively.
China Baijiu Peng, an analyst with China’s food industry, analyzed the “Baijiu” demand for the Spring Festival. The company’s first quarter results in 2021 will be positive. This is one of the reasons for the strong performance of liquor stocks.
For Baijiu future trend, the market has different views. Some Baijiu Baijiu plate optimistic about the trend of spring, Tianfeng securities food and beverage team believes that spring is the peak season for liquor consumption, Baijiu plate short-term fluctuations do not change to long-term trend.
Some agencies also said that the valuation of Baijiu plate was high in the short term, which reminded investors to pay attention to the risk of callback.
Behind the rebound in liquor stocks is the recent performance of Baijiu Baijiu company in 2020, and the institutional capital. In January 25th, Baijiu, Luzhou Lao Jiao, Jiugui Liquor and Wuliangye four were among the top six listed companies in liquor market. Recently, the announcement of 2020’s performance increase has been released.
From the institutional position, the Baijiu Fund Quarterly Report data released in 2020 recently, the proportion of liquor holding positions in institutional positions increased significantly, and reached a record high.
Baijiu market is coming back? January 25th Baijiu plate staged a wave of tide, the plate market again triggered investor concern.
After a short period of adjustment, Baijiu plate again led A shares in January 25th, and the Baijiu index rose 5.39% in the same day, ranking the first among the major A stock market.
This performance is far better than the market. On the same day, the main indexes of a shares were mixed. The Shanghai index rose 0.48% to 3624.24 points, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.52% to 15710.19 points, and the gem index fell 0.09% to 3355.24 points. However, the turnover of the two cities did not significantly reduce, with the total turnover breaking through trillion yuan again, reaching 1208.3 billion yuan, and the turnover breaking through trillion yuan in 14 of the past 16 trading days.
Baijiu is the one and only industry that has a certain scarcity. This is why the past value investors are willing to buy. Zhuang Hongdong, chairman and manager of cheese fund, told Caijing.
Zhuang Hongdong further said that there were more recent events in the industry, such as the pre holiday sales, the positive signals released by the annual conference of Baijiu enterprises, and collective price increases. The superposition of new fund has created new historical and objective factors. Incremental funds have also been actively allocated to the leading industries, and to some extent, it has boosted the interpretation of Baijiu hot market.
Baijiu liquor Baijiu Baijiu shares also appear to be rising tide, the Yanghe River shares, Gujing Gong liquor, Luzhou Lao Jiao, and Hao technology, and many other liquor stocks or liquor stocks limit.
Baijiu Guizhou Moutai shares hit a new high. The stock rose to 2179.50 yuan / share and closed at 2175 yuan / share, up 4.57% throughout the day, with a total market value of 2.73 trillion yuan.
Since January this year, a number of institutions have raised the target price of Guizhou Maotai to more than 2200 yuan / share, and one of them even raised the target price of Guizhou Maotai to 2739 yuan / share.
Nomura Oriental International recently raised the target price of Guizhou Maotai to 2393.05 yuan / share. It believes that the wholesale price of Guizhou Maotai still has strong support due to tight supply and demand. Taking into account the company’s recent price control measures, it is expected that the company will first increase the volume and raise the price, the overall performance growth is expected to accelerate, and continue to lead the high-end Baijiu market.
Apart from optimism about the trend of Baijiu, the liquor makers are also more optimistic about the spring trend of Baijiu.
CICC recently said that the overall demand for liquor was revived after the outbreak last year, and began in Baijiu. Demand recovery rhythm was Moutai, April Wuliangye, May national cellar, June and the three quarter was a high-end resilient recovery. It is expected that the consumption characteristics and trends of Baijiu will be similar to that of the first half of last year, but the switch from high-end to high-end will be shortened obviously.
The food and beverage team of Tianfeng Securities believes that the consumption upgrading is expected to offset the impact of the epidemic, and the short-term fluctuation will not change to the long-term good trend. The demand side is affected by the epidemic, while Baijiu consumption banquet scene is damaged, but the consumption upgrading trend continues. Supply side, spring is the peak season for liquor consumption, and enterprises ensure the normal payment by raising prices. Therefore, the short-term fluctuation of Baijiu Baijiu plate does not change to a long-term trend.
“Standing at the current point of view, the current two level Baijiu liquor industry valuation is certainly high.” Zhuang Hongdong said: “the performance of the Baijiu side of the liquor industry has been good in the past year, but the capital market has fully reflected the retail market situation. For example, in the expansion of some regional brands outside the province, whether the remote replication can be successfully reflected in the performance remains to be verified, but the secondary market has been affected. The profit risk ratio of liquor industry has been greatly reduced, so we are becoming more conservative in the investment of Baijiu Baijiu, and we also suggest that investors should pay attention to the risk of callback.
Cai Xuefei, a liquor analyst, told the financial reporter that “cannot read the liquor market at all. The only explanation is that the Spring Festival is approaching. The public is still optimistic about the consumption prospects of famous liquor. In the absence of investment channels, a large number of hot money holders of liquor value inflation have pushed up the stock price.”
Behind the rebound in liquor stocks is the recent performance of Baijiu Baijiu company in 2020.
In January 25th, Baijiu, Luzhou Lao Jiao, Jiugui Liquor and Wuliangye four were among the top six listed companies in liquor market. Recently, they released their 2020 performance forecasts and reported their good news.
In addition to jishiyuan’s forecast that the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in 2020 will increase by about 6.3% on a year-on-year basis, the other three companies are expected to grow by more than 20% on a year-on-year basis.
Among them, the net profit of Jiugui Liquor in 2020 attributable to shareholders of listed companies increased by 51.92% – 65.28% over the same period of last year, the net profit of Wuliangye in 2020 attributable to shareholders of listed companies increased by about 14% over the same period of last year, and Luzhou Laojiao in 2020 forecasted that the net profit of Shanxi Fenjiu (600809. SH) increased by 41.56% – 55.47% over the same period of last year,
Wind data show that in the first three quarters of 2020, in the 227 industries (four grades and the same below), the Baijiu industry ranked ninety-first in the liquor industry, with a net profit of 9.72% attributable to parent company’s year-on-year increase.
Among them, the operating income increased by more than 10% over the same period, and the total number of listed Baijiu companies was 6. The net profit attributable to the parent company’s shareholders increased by 10% over the same period, and 6. Among them, the year-on-year growth rates of Guizhou Maotai’s operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company were 10.31% and 11.07% respectively, those of Wuliangye were 14.53% and 15.96% respectively, and those of Jiugui Liquor (000799. SZ) were 16.45% and 79.76% respectively.
However, from the above data, the year-on-year growth rate of net profit in 2020 is basically the same as that in the first three quarters of 2020. The growth rate of net profit in Luzhou Laojiao is slightly higher, while that of Jiugui Liquor is more than 10%.
It is worth noting that on January 25, Jinshiyuan (603369. SH), whose stock price soared by 8.49%, recently released the outline of five year strategic plan (2021-2025), saying that it will strive to achieve revenue of more than 10 billion yuan (strive for 15 billion yuan) by 2025. In order to make a good start, the company’s revenue target in 2021 is about 5.9 billion yuan, striving for 6.6 billion yuan. In the first three quarters of 2020, the company’s operating revenue was 4.193 billion yuan.
For Baijiu listed companies in 2021, the market forecast has different views.
Zhu Danpeng told finance and economics reporter that the first quarter results in 2021, the performance of Baijiu listed companies will show strong head enterprises, while the regional Baijiu is affected by the epidemic, and is facing greater performance pressure.
Zhuang Hongdong told the financial reporter that at present, most Baijiu enterprises have raised the goal of double-digit growth in 2021. According to our follow-up observation, considering the background of economic recovery and consumer demand, this goal is more likely to be realized.
Can the reunion last?
Baijiu stock has always been one of the main positions of public offering fund. Agencies for Baijiu plate pursuit of strength has not been reduced, some public funds in the four quarter secretly added. In the fourth quarter of 2020, Baijiu allocation increased by 2.64 percentage points to 15.13%, while the over matching ratio increased from 7.30% in the three quarter of 2020 to 8.88%. The fund’s key positions include Guizhou Maotai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, etc.
Recently, the fourth quarter of the public fund raised the report, according to the Oriental Wealth data, many Baijiu shares are among the top of the public fund.
Among the top 30 stocks in the market value of public fund positions, Guizhou Maotai is the first stock in the public fund position, with a total market value of 167.7 billion yuan, an increase of 46.81% compared with the previous period.
Wuliangye ranked second in the total market value of public fund positions, with a total market value of 122.5 billion yuan, an increase of 46.88% over the previous period.
The total market value of Luzhou Laojiao public fund was 57 billion yuan, up 65.21% compared with the previous period. The total market value of Shanxi Fenjiu public fund was 36.7 billion yuan, up 129.51% compared with the previous period.
About the public offering of Baijiu liquor stocks, Liu Chenming, chief strategist of Tianfeng securities, analyzed that foreign capital began to flow into A shares in 2017, and the logic of Core Company valuation began to change. The preference of foreign capital lies in the stability and sustainability of performance. So, a few Core Company with A shares are most capable of concentrating on Baijiu, condiments, household appliances, medicine and other consumer goods industries.
Under the guidance of foreign capital, more and more domestic funds begin to accept this fixed price logic, and the key role is public funds. In 2020, the scale of public funds will explode, and the rise of core assets will form a spiral acceleration.
Baijiu Baijiu index (LOF), the only liquor index fund in the market, has increased by 60% since the end of the three quarter of 2020, and has rolled over 99% of the market. In the past five years, the index product has also outperformed all active management products.
In CAI Xuefei’s view, because the capital market is too active, it may lead to a kind of blind optimism in the market, thus promoting the collective outbreak of famous liquor. In other words, the economic and epidemic disturbance has accelerated the differentiation trend of the whole industry. The consumption and investment attributes of the national famous liquor have been further strengthened, while the regional famous liquor may have certain value deviation and a certain bubble.