James Naismith, a professor of structural biology at the University of Oxford in the United Kingdom, predicts that if the first wave of new crown vaccines is effectively deployed, coupled with proper social distancing control, developed countries may begin to escape the impact of the epidemic in late spring. But the speed of getting rid of the epidemic will partly depend on factors such as whether more vaccines can be approved. As Fauci said recently, we are currently at a “bittersweet” moment: Although the vaccine’s launch brings hope, the development of the epidemic is still not optimistic.
This is because things may get worse before they get better. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota in the United States, said that if the government relaxes restrictions during the Christmas period, the infection rate may surge like after Thanksgiving and cause more deaths. He said that people must continue to follow the rules in “just a few months” until the vaccine is given to most people.
According to reports, the number of vaccinations completed between December 11 and 18 in the United States was only slightly higher than 30% of the number of new cases on the 18th.
Mistakes in the busy schedule, the delivery of vaccines from the U.S. federal government to local governments has also been chaotic.
Officials in 14 US states said that they learned on the 16th that the vaccine shipped in the week of the 21st would be less than the dose in the first week, which caught them off guard. For example, the Vermont Department of Health Commissioner Mark Levine stated that the dose this week was 25% to 35%. “This is destructive and frustrating,” said Washington Governor Jay Inslee. “We need accurate and predictable numbers to plan and ensure the success of vaccination.”
In the UK, according to Bloomberg News, more than 137,000 people in the country have been vaccinated. But at the same time, as the transmission capacity of the detected new variant virus has increased by 70% compared to the previous one, British Prime Minister Johnson announced on the 19th that he plans to strictly seal London and most of the southeast of England. Last week, the number of cases in London nearly doubled, with a new variant
▲On December 8, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson watched a woman vaccinate at the vaccination center of a London hospital. On December 8, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson watched a woman get vaccinated at the vaccination center of a London hospital.
The Dutch government said on the 20th that it has detected a case of a new variant of the virus this month and will ban flights from the UK to the Netherlands from 6 am on Sunday. Germany also reintroduced lockdown measures last week, closing all non-essential stores, after the country recorded the highest number of new cases since the beginning of the epidemic.
In the United States, ordinary people may start to be vaccinated in January next year, and it is expected that 100 million people will be vaccinated against the new crown by the end of March next year.
Mark Jit, professor of vaccine epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told China Business News that when “herd immunity” can be achieved depends on the effectiveness and coverage of the vaccine. “To achieve herd immunity, we need very high vaccine coverage, so as to prevent infection and disease well.” He said.