Methanol shock 3000? Urea up to 2800?

Last week with the centralized maintenance of coal to methanol and coal prices strong run to push up the valuation of methanol. Recently the spot price of methanol has also risen to a certain extent. This week’s methanol 09, I am optimistic about 2786 line, if the closing price can effectively stand on this position, this week there is a possibility of exploring 3000; If the closing price does not stand at 2786 line, then, I think methanol 09 May usher in the opportunity of a pullback. The main reference bases are as follows: 1. The downstream olefin products are at a loss, leading to a decline in the operating rate, and the expected demand for methanol is likely to weaken. 2. July-August is the seasonally low season for methanol consumption. During this period, methanol manufacturers focus on equipment maintenance and expect a weakening of methanol capacity. 3. There is no substantial change in the inflation pattern of the world’s major economies in the short term, which supports the strong methanol price.

 

Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd., which has a production capacity of 1.25 million tons, is one of the large-scale urea manufacturers that recently entered the overhaul. Inner Mongolia Jinxin, involving 800,000 tons of production capacity; Henan Junma, involving production capacity of 1.3 million tons. The maintenance of the above enterprises, so that the local and surrounding areas of urea supply has declined, forming a support for the spot price of urea, the spot price of urea in some areas to maintain more than 2900, there is a trend of continuing to rise. Urea prices on the spot price discount is expected to maintain for some time. I like Urea 09 to go up to 2800 this week. Although the control of urea production capacity is an important factor in the price rise of urea, but the rise in the price of urea abroad also drives the price of urea at home. Relevant questions, everyone is welcome to comment on the focus of the like and exchange with me. The above personal views are for reference only; Operate accordingly, profit and loss own!