Central bank authority release

With the continuous recovery of the economy, including the financial industry and the real economy, the latest survey of the central bank reflects the latest trend of the economy.

On July 5, the people’s Bank of China released three routine questionnaire reports for bankers, entrepreneurs and urban depositors in the second quarter. The three reports respectively reflected the feelings of different groups on the current economy and their future economic expectations from the aspects of macro-economic heat of bankers and entrepreneurs, overall loan demand, business climate and profitability, income and employment.

Since the beginning of this year, the rise in commodity prices has driven up the cost of raw materials for enterprises, the rise in inflation expectations, and the absence of further tightening of monetary policy in the second quarter are also consistent with the feelings of different groups, which are reflected in different indicators in the questionnaire. On the whole, both bankers and entrepreneurs feel better about the economic development than in the previous quarter, and are more positive about the economic development in the next quarter.

Bankers and entrepreneurs feel that the economic heat continues to “heat up”

From the results of the questionnaire, both bankers and entrepreneurs feel the sustained recovery of the economy, and their expectations for the economic development in the next quarter become more positive.

In the second quarter, the banker’s macroeconomic heat index was 45.9%, up 3.5 percentage points from the previous quarter. Among them, 79.3% of the bankers thought the current macro-economy was “normal”, an increase of 7.8 percentage points over the previous quarter; 14.5% of the bankers thought it was “cold”, 7.4 percentage points lower than last quarter. For the next quarter, the banker’s macroeconomic heat index is expected to be 48.4%, 2.5 percentage points higher than this quarter.

From the perspective of entrepreneurs, the macro-economic heat index of entrepreneurs in the second quarter was 42.1%, 3.1 percentage points higher than that in the previous quarter and 22.8 percentage points higher than that in the same period last year. The business climate index was 59.6%, 3.3 percentage points higher than that in the previous quarter and 16.9 percentage points higher than that in the same period last year. The profit index was 60.7%, an increase of 7.6 percentage points over the previous quarter and an increase of 11.1 percentage points over the same period last year.

It is worth noting that in the “troika” (export, consumption and investment) that drove China’s economic growth in the first half of the year, the high growth of export exceeded expectations, which played a greater role in stimulating the economy. Correspondingly, the domestic order index of entrepreneurs also reached a new high in the second quarter, and the export order index was close to the historical high. Among them, the domestic order index was 56.0%, an increase of 10.2 percentage points over the previous quarter and 5.1 percentage points over the same period last year. The export order index was 50.6%, an increase of 8.6 percentage points over the previous quarter and an increase of 18.6 percentage points over the same period last year.

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