In early trading on June 22, the oil sector soared collectively. As of press time, Tongyuan Petroleum rose 15.89%, Hengtai Aipu, China National Offshore Oil Services (02883) and more than 10 stocks rose more than 5%.
Among them, China National Petroleum Corporation (00857.HK) surged over 5%, and the intraday peak once again set a new high for this round of rebound, setting a new high in the past 1.5 years.
In the early morning of the 22nd, Beijing time, foreign crude oil futures rose sharply on Monday, and the US WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices both hit their highest closing prices since 2018. The US stock market rose and the dollar fell, boosting the attractiveness of dollar-denominated commodities. The spread of the US oil market in recent months relative to the far-month contract has widened, indicating that market supply is tightening.
Donghai Futures believes that the expectation of a rebound in global demand exceeds the concerns of Iran’s increased supply after the sanctions are lifted, leading to a gradual increase in the recent oil price center of gravity. However, in the medium and long term, the supply side will remain relatively tight, long-term crude oil demand will continue to rise, and medium and long-term oil prices will remain in the upward channel.
CITIC Construction Investment Futures said that crude oil prices are expected to still have upside in the market outlook, and the pressure will gradually increase. The positives include (1) Europe and the United States, with the world’s leading and rapid vaccination progress, the recovery of economic and oil demand supports the market’s optimistic expectations for the prospects of oil demand, and (2) the seasonal characteristics of crude oil destocking during the peak summer driving season in the United States , (3) In the context of the approaching Iranian election, it is increasingly difficult for the United States and Iran to reach an agreement on the Iranian nuclear talks. Delayed supply is expected to be fulfilled. (4) Last week, the speculative net long positions of Brent and WTI increased by 7.3% and 8.8% from the previous month. Three weeks and two weeks increase.
Bank of China Securities believes that it is expected that from the second half of 2021, the prosperity of the petroleum equipment and service industry will rebound significantly. But what is different from the past is that both the petroleum equipment industry and the oilfield technical service industry have undergone tremendous changes in the industry structure. After two crude oil cycles in the past 10 years, China’s petroleum equipment leader Jereh and offshore oil service leader CNOOC Limited Competitiveness continues to increase, and it has a global layout. After crossing the bottom of the cycle, it will usher in new development prospects. It is recommended to pay attention to Jereh and China National Offshore Oil Services.