In the early trading on March 10, the A-share market opened nearly a bit higher. What is rare is that the “group” sectors such as liquor, medical care, and new energy vehicles have stabilized.
As of the close at noon, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.67%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.52%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.95%. At the end of the afternoon, the above three major stock indexes closed at 3357.74, 13563.34, and 2676.7 respectively.
In fact, behind the recent “green light”, there are also many “positive” signs.
On the evening of March 9, a Times Weekly reporter learned from a fund company that on that day, the supervisory authorities had requested that fund companies with huge redemptions report specific conditions.
Industry insiders analyzed that on the one hand, this move is concerned with liquidity issues; on the other hand, it also understands investor sentiment.
On March 9, there was a rumor in the market that “national team funds” had entered the market, with the purpose of maintaining market stability and avoiding short-term sharp fluctuations. However, this news failed to reverse the decline. The stock indexes of the two cities continued to oscillate downward after the V-shaped reversal, and eventually closed down all over again.
After the Spring Festival, the “bullishness” that investors and Christians had hoped for did not come, but was stuck in an anxious atmosphere and was unable to extricate themselves, having fun in the painful days of falling.
Disk data shows that from February 18 to March 9, in the 14 trading days of the Year of the Ox, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 8.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 15.58%, and the ChiNext Index fell 22.86%, showing a technical bear market.
During this period, the liquor, medical, new energy vehicles and other sectors have undergone significant adjustments. The so-called “group stocks” such as Moutai have frequently suffered setbacks. Investment income of many investors has been eroded, and the gains in the net worth of the citizens have also been quickly eroded.
After the Spring Festival, the heavy stocks of institutional holdings fell sharply. About 3,400 funds’ net worth fell by more than 10%, and nearly 800 funds’ net worth dropped by more than 20%.
New signs of redemption
However, according to the knowledge of a number of large and small fund companies by the Times Weekly reporter, as of last weekend, public funds have not shown obvious signs of net redemption.
Many fund companies interviewed said that although the scale of redemption has been enlarged compared to before the Spring Festival, there are net purchases for hedging, and the institutional response has also been relatively stable. But by this Monday (March 8), some fund companies and even leading companies began to feel the pressure of redemption. On Tuesday, as the stock market rose but failed to meet demand, the situation was contagious.
“The redemption is originally the normal behavior of the citizens. Fund companies and fund managers will also set aside corresponding expectations when the market adjusts. However, today’s feeling is that all kinds of products are being redeemed. Both Internet financial channels and traditional channels are available. It is a retail investor, and I can see that everyone is a little panicked. It was originally expected that there would be a rebound on Monday, but it did not happen, and it tended to be safe.” On March 9, a fund source revealed that at present, various companies and related companies Channels are focusing on investor education and customer guidance.
It is worth mentioning that on March 9, the market once went wildly that this round of adjustments was “all caused by insurance.” It pointed out that some large insurance institutions had redeemed funds in large numbers in recent days, which led to a stampede down.
In this regard, insurance institutions have stepped up to respond that day, denying it, saying that they had adjusted their positions before the Spring Festival to keep their equity positions within a reasonable range.
On March 9th, a person from the market department of a fund company also told Times Weekly reporters that he hoped that public opinion could convey some positive energy in the near future, instead of adding fuel to panic, fund investment should have a long-term perspective, and the current market fundamentals have not deteriorated. , The adjustment is only a temporary phenomenon.
She said that since 2020, many new Christians have entered the market. They have not experienced the loss experience of the previous bear market and lack the experience and understanding of investment risks. However, she believes that these new Christians are easier to “educate” than the former Christians.
“Many of them are post-90s and post-00s, with relatively higher levels of education and more rational emotional control. The reason why funds are frequently searched this year is also related to the current age-level changes of the Christians. These’new students’ The generation’ will understand and learn relevant knowledge, and will resolve anxiety through various jokes.” The person said.
According to the observation of a reporter from Times Weekly, in recent days, many fund companies have also strengthened communication with investors through writing open letters, fund managers face-to-face online, and exchanges of views of fund managers to “maintain stability”.
In the middle of the night on March 9, Alipay·Wealth Management Think Tank also issued a “Letter to Investors”.
The letter stated that in the current situation of increasing market volatility, it is more important to believe in the power of professionalism and give outstanding fund managers with rich investment experience, comprehensive capabilities, and strong retracement control capabilities longer time to conduct professional operations, in exchange for time Investment appreciation.
Self-purchase is popular
In recent years, whenever the fund market is unstable, there will be fund companies who have stepped up to buy and show confidence.
However, according to a reporter from Times Weekly, as of now, the supervisory authorities have not yet issued a call and window guidance for this round of decline.
On the evening of March 9, news that a number of fund companies started the self-purchase model rushed to hot searches. On March 8, Yongying Fund issued an announcement, announcing that the self-purchasing of its new fund, Yongying, will benefit 50 million yuan, and fund manager Li Yongxing also purchased 1 million yuan.
According to statistics from Flush iFinD, since the Year of the Ox, from February 18th to March 9th, in addition to Yongying Fund, more than ten fund companies such as Fortune, China Huitianfu, Tianhong, and China have made self-purchases. The accumulated self-purchase amount exceeded 200 million yuan in two weeks.
On March 9th, Xinghua Fund also announced that based on its confidence in the long-term healthy and stable development of China’s capital market and the company’s proactive investment management capabilities, based on the principles of risk-sharing and benefit-sharing with investors, on March 8th, Has used its inherent funds to subscribe for 3 million yuan of its subsidiary Xinghua Yongxing Hybrid.
What needs to be explained here is that although the above self-purchase can be attributed to confidence in the market outlook and fund managers, it cannot be simply characterized as a bargaining action.
The Times Weekly reporter observed that in the past year or so, the self-purchasing behavior of funds actually peaked in December last year. The net purchase amount in that month was nearly 900 million yuan. In January this year, there were also 340 million yuan. Instead, it dropped to 220 million yuan in February. Yuan, about 50 million yuan has been temporarily since March.
Fund practitioners are an important buying group for funds.
On March 10, the deputy general manager of a Shanghai fund company told Times Weekly that half of his net worth had already subscribed to his own fund.
According to him, since March 9th, he and several colleagues have started to increase positions. The reason is that according to historical experience, people abandon me and others fear that I am greedy is the law that investment should adhere to. In his view, equity investment is gradually gaining popularity, and the temporarily withdrawn funds will re-enter the market when the market stabilizes and picks up.
In fact, before the Spring Festival, some fund managers have adjusted their positions and lightened their positions to varying degrees. Fund purchase restrictions and dividends are essentially conservative operations by fund managers.
Two months ago, a fund manager in South China confessed to a Times Weekly reporter that he had reduced his position to 80% at that time.
He said that he was not worried about major changes in the market fundamentals after the holiday, but mainly worried about the tightening of capital liquidity, and that the subsequent incremental funds could not keep up, thus falling into the “stock market falling-citizen redemption-boosting decline.” “The bad cycle.
Recently, a number of fund companies have announced the extension of fund offerings. It only took 1 month from not enough to sell.
Reflection is more important
According to many fund industry professionals interviewed by Times Weekly, it is more precious to summarize and reflect on the changes in the public fund industry this round.
For example, with the increase in the number of basic citizens on the Internet and the “post-90s” and “post-00s” citizens, are fund companies prepared to deal with extreme emotions? To build a head fund, has a single fund manager’s excessive number and scale of funds brought about uncontrollable drawbacks?
The phenomenon of “grouping” is also worth thinking about. In this round of decline in the market, “Bao Tuan” has been criticized by many parties, and the market has mainly two voices about it:
One voice believes that “holding group” is a false proposition. Because most of the stocks selected by fund managers are from top to bottom, from industry to individual stocks, industry sectors and stock holdings will naturally form, which is equivalent to “heroes see the same” to some extent;
Another view is that due to the radical operation of fund companies and fund managers, behind the convergence of shareholdings is the pursuit of hot money and fame. Regardless of the reason, fund companies and fund managers should strengthen their response strategies after the collapse of the “group”.
On March 9, as Guan Qingyou, the dean of the Institute of Finance and a professor at the School of Economics of Hainan University, said bluntly, the loosening of the “group” is an important reason for this round of decline.
He believes that “Bao Tuan” public fund managers will inevitably fall into the “prisoner’s dilemma”, that is, when a fund manager starts to sell such core assets as Moutai, other fund managers must also sell and sell it earlier. The “Prisoner’s Dilemma” determines that throwing is the best solution for the individual fund manager, but it is the worst scenario for the entire market.
“Institutions can affect subscriptions, but they cannot affect investors’ redemptions. So when the “group” begins to loosen, not to mention disintegration, public funds will not be able to stop this trend and can only continue to sell assets to deal with the redemption of the citizens. This is the status quo of the Chinese institutional market, and it has also become one of the drivers of the natural instability of the A-share market.” Guan Qingyou said.