Baotuan stocks plummeted, fund redemption tide is coming?

A-share fund group stocks plunged again. Moutai fell below the 2,000 yuan mark, and the heavy holdings of public funds such as Yiwei Lithium Energy, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu fell by 10%. In the 13 trading days since the Year of the Ox, Tongce Medical’s share price has fallen by more than 44%, which is nearly cut in half. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.3% yesterday, and the ChiNext Index fell by nearly 5%.

fund redemption tide is coming?

The rapid decline of A-shares has caused the once-popular public offering funds to quickly pull back their net worth. Funds with net worth retracements of more than 10% abound. This has also aroused concerns in the market. Will the successive declines in the heavy stocks of funds trigger a “stomping” run?

However, public data shows that since the 13 trading days of the Year of the Ox, nearly half of the fund shares in the public ETF camp are still growing. A channel person from a large fund company also said: There must be redemptions, but the redemption wave is not enough.

Fund holding group shares all “discount”

Where is the worst discount on Goddess Festival? Not the major Internet platforms, but the stock market.

The military sector plummeted, and liquor, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaics were all being shipped madly. Adding blue chips to several small sectors, such as extractive services, carbon neutrality, and chemical industry, is bucking the trend. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.3% yesterday, and the ChiNext Index fell nearly 5%.

At the same time, the most widely spread yesterday was Zhang Kun, a 100 billion fund manager who frequently appeared on the hot search, and the E Fund small and medium-cap fund managed by him. According to the fund’s top ten heavyweight stocks at the end of the fourth quarter of last year, Luzhou Laojiao and Meinian Health fell by the limit yesterday, Tongce Medical fell 9.21%, and Yanghe shares and Wuliangye fell more than 7%. The two stocks that rose were Yutong Bus and Tiantan Bio (600161.SH), which rose 0.3% and 0.17%, respectively.

In fact, on March 8, the most severe discounts were indeed the heavily held stocks of the fund group.

Taking the “Beautiful 50” public fund as an example, statistics show that as of December 31, 2020, among the top 50 heavily held stocks held by public funds, only Ping An of China and BOE A rose on March 8 , The increase was around 0.6%. Yiwei Lithium Energy, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu and Longji shares fell 10% on the day. Aier Ophthalmology, Tongce Medical and other stocks fell more than 9%, and 25 stocks fell more than 5%.

If the time is stretched to 13 trading days since the Year of the Ox, 25 stocks have fallen by more than 20%, and 9 stocks such as WuXi AppTec and Yiwei Lithium have fallen by 30% to 40% over the same period. Cemed Medical’s decline in the same period reached 44.85%, and its share price rushed from its highest point of 392.57 yuan in the previous period to the current 214 yuan.

The redemption tide has not yet appeared

After the year, the heavy stocks of funds fell successively, which also caused market concerns: whether such a sharp decline will trigger a vicious circle of fund redemption-selling-redemption in panic-reluctant to sell and cash out, and then trigger a “stomping” run. So, is the redemption wave of public funds coming?

“The redemption tide is not there yet. At the moment, the redemption is mainly some new Christians, who can not bear the fluctuations and withdraw. Most experienced old Christians will choose to get down, because from the past history, there will be later Set a new high.” A source from a fund company said.

A channel person from a large fund company also said: “Redemptions are definitely available, but the redemption wave is not enough. The new foundations who came in this year, or some of the new foundations who came in the fourth quarter of last year, have already held funds with floating losses. Usually there is a floating loss, and the Citizens will often choose to redeem near the face value of the fund. At that time, the pressure on the fund manager will be greater. Of course, if the A-shares continue to decline rapidly in the future, the possibility of the Citizens choosing to cut the meat to stop the loss will also be large. improve.”

CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that the median yield of publicly offered products has fallen from 10.7% before the Spring Festival to 0%, and the yield of its top 100 heavyweight stocks has also fallen from 18.3% to -1.6%. CITIC Securities believes that the possibility of redemption of publicly offered products is very low. On the one hand, channel research shows that there is no obvious redemption wave for stock products. During the rapid decline of the market, investors often do not stop loss and exit immediately, but wait and see for the market to stop falling and recover, and when the net value of the product is restored to a certain extent, redemptions will be gradually initiated. On the other hand, the valuation of the heavy warehouse sector of representative institutions has dropped significantly.

Haitong Securities issued a statement that the adjustment range of the index has exceeded market expectations and is currently in the stage of finding a bottom. Yesterday, the Changyin market broke the position, and the reason was that the group stocks within the market continued to drop. It is the decline of heavyweight stocks that has led to the decline of the index. The chain transmission of the market decline is the weight-index-market. The source lies in the weighted stocks such as core assets. Therefore, the weight of these core assets must first stop the decline before the market can stop the decline. At present, the weights and indexes have been significantly oversold, but the core assets continued to plummet, resulting in a substantial withdrawal of the fund’s net value, causing short-term redemptions by some citizens. Fund managers were forced to lighten their positions in response to the redemptions, causing heavyweight stocks to fall further. Thus formed a negative cycle. How to break this negative cycle still lies in the stop of the heavy stocks, the rebound of the index, the restoration of the money-making effect, and the restoration of investor confidence.

It is worth noting that when the market is still enthusiastically discussing the redemption wave that public funds may face, public data shows that nearly half of ETF funds have continued to increase their share since the Year of the Ox.

According to data from Wind, as of March 5, there were a total of 425 ETF funds in the two markets. Excluding new products established after the year, there were a total of 408 funds. The data also shows that from February 18 to March 5, a total of 197 ETF shares rose, accounting for 48.2%, which is nearly half of the proportion, 41 ETF shares remained unchanged, and 170 ETF shares fell slightly.