Spot gold fluctuated in the range of US$1705-1722 for most of the time on Thursday. During the speech of Fed Chairman Powell overnight, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury continued to rise above 1.55%.
Friday, March 5
1. Spot gold once fell by more than 30 US dollars and approached the 1690 mark
Spot gold fluctuated in the range of $1705-1722 for most of the time on Thursday. During the speech of Fed Chairman Powell overnight, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continued to rise above 1.55%. The U.S. index performed strongly, and the price of gold continued to fall, with the lowest hitting 1,690.47 The U.S. dollar fell by more than 30 U.S. dollars from the daily high, and finally closed down 0.8% to 1,697.10 U.S. dollars per ounce. Spot silver almost fell below the US$25 mark and eventually closed down 2.85% to US$25.33 per ounce. The dollar index closed up 0.71% to 91.59.
2. Non-US currencies fell sharply overnight
Affected by the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, non-U.S. currencies fell sharply overnight. The pound against the U.S. dollar once stood above the 1.40 mark, but eventually fell below the 1.39 mark; the euro fell by up to 90 points against the U.S. dollar overnight.
3. Oil prices soared, Brent crude oil broke through the $67 mark
In the oil market, Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ allies decided to continue to control the oil supply, shocking the oil market. Oil prices soared. Brent crude oil rose by US$4 during the day and broke the US$67 mark. Finally, it closed up 4.84% to US$66.98 per barrel. ; WTI crude oil hit a maximum of 64.83 US dollars, and finally closed up 4.85% to 64.00 US dollars / barrel.
4. Powell: The recent volatility in the bond market “caught my attention”
In the stock market, Powell mentioned that the recent bond market volatility has attracted his attention, but he did not propose a solution. After his remarks, the U.S. 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose significantly, while U.S. stocks turned down. The Dow once fell 700. Point, the Nasdaq fell more than 3% intraday. As of the close, the Dow fell 1.11%, the S&P 500 fell 1.28%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.11%. On the disk, technology stocks, popular Chinese concept stocks, and anti-epidemic concept stocks fell across the board, and the oil and gas sector bucked the market and rose.
5. Major European stock indexes were mixed. Among them, the German DAX30 index closed down 0.18%, and the Italian FTSE MIB index closed up 0.19%.
6. A-shares and Hong Kong stocks fell sharply
The three major Hong Kong stock indexes closed down across the board, the Hang Seng Index closed down 2.15%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index closed down 5.84%. On the disk, the steel sector bucked the trend and the technology stocks, wind power stocks, photovoltaic solar stocks, gold and precious metals stocks generally fell.
The three major A-share stock indexes were down unilaterally. As of the close, the Shanghai Index fell 2.05% and held the 3,500-point mark for the second time in the week. The Shenzhen Component Index fell 3.46% and the ChiNext Index fell 4.87%. On the disk, the major industry sectors fell almost across the board, and the pre-popular sectors such as electrical equipment, liquor, construction machinery, catering and tourism fell sharply. Steel stocks continued their gains yesterday, and the concepts of rare earths and electric power rose during the session. About 2,800 shares in the two cities fell, the total turnover rose to 970 billion yuan, and the net outflow of northbound funds exceeded 7 billion yuan.
1. Global gold ETF holdings fell 2% in February
Position report: The world’s largest gold ETF–SPDR Gold Trust’s position decreased by 4.08 tons from the previous day, and the current position is 1078.3 tons. The world’s largest silver ETF–iShares Silver Trust’s holdings decreased by 202.19 tons from the previous day, and the current holdings are 18,678.16 tons.
2. According to the CME “Federal Reserve Observation”: the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in the 0%-0.25% range in March is 100%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to the 0.25%-0.50% range is 0%. The probability of maintaining interest rates in the 0%-0.25% range in April is 95.9%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 4.1%.
3. Fed Chairman Powell: The recent fluctuations in the bond market have attracted his attention, but he has not proposed a solution.
High inflation is a very bad situation, and the Fed will not allow this to happen again. The current policy stance is appropriate, and interest rate hikes will occur when the economy “almost fully recovers.” Any change in the Fed’s quantitative easing policy requires actual progress towards the goal, and it will take some time to make substantial further progress.
4. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits rose slightly
As of February 27, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the United States was 745,000, slightly higher than the previous value of 736,000. The analysis pointed out that the number of people applying for unemployment insurance in the United States rose slightly last week, highlighting the continued suppression of the epidemic on the recovery of the labor market.
5. The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO): It is estimated that during the period 2022-2031, the U.S. annual budget deficit will account for an average of 4.4% of GDP, compared with 10.3% in 2021.
6. Goldman Sachs raised its expectation for the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds, which is expected to rise to 1.9% by the end of 2021.
7. CME Group cuts initial margin for gold futures
CME Group (CME) lowered the initial margin of COMEX100 gold futures (GC) and gold (enhanced delivery) futures (4GC) from US$12,100/lot to US$11,000/lot, a reduction of 9.1%. The maintenance margin for copper futures will be adjusted from US$5,000/hand to US$5,500/hand, an increase of 10%.
8. Global gold ETF holdings fell 2% in February
The World Gold Council pointed out that due to falling gold prices and rising interest rates, global gold ETF holdings in February decreased by 84.7 tons, a drop of 2%, which was the third outflow in 4 months. The decrease in holdings ranked seventh in history.
9. Saudi Arabia is not in a hurry to cancel the 1 million barrels/day voluntary crude oil production reduction plan
OPEC+ reached an agreement on the scale of production cuts, except that Russia and Kazakhstan were allowed to increase production by 130,000 barrels per day and 20,000 barrels per day respectively in April, and other member states will extend their production cut plans. Saudi Arabia has decided to maintain the voluntary crude oil output reduction scale of 1 million barrels per day in April, and is inclined to gradually cancel the voluntary production reduction plan of 1 million barrels per day from May.
10. EIA Natural Gas Report: As of the week of February 26, the total US natural gas inventory was 184.5 billion cubic feet, a decrease of 98 billion cubic feet from the previous week, and a decrease of 277 billion cubic feet from the same period last year, a decrease of 13.1%. The annual average value decreased by 178 billion cubic feet, a decrease of 8.8%.
1. Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Association: Polysilicon prices continued to rise this week.
The domestic single crystal compound feed price range is 105-114 million yuan/ton, and the average transaction price is 110,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.23% month-on-month; the single crystal dense material price range is 1.03-11.2 million yuan/ton, and the average transaction price is 108 thousand yuan / ton, an increase of 4.45% month-on-month, both set new highs in recent years.
2. China Banking Regulatory Commission: At the end of the fourth quarter of 2020, the average comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio of the 178 insurance companies included in the meeting was 246.3%, and the average core solvency adequacy ratio was 234.3%. The average comprehensive solvency adequacy ratios of life insurance companies, property insurance companies, and reinsurance companies were 239.6%, 277.9%, and 319.3%, respectively.
3. 34 Chinese mobile game publishers are shortlisted in the TOP100 global mobile game publisher revenue list
Sensor Tower: In February, in the global App Store and Google Play revenue rankings, 34 Chinese mobile game publishers were shortlisted in the TOP100 global mobile game publisher revenue list, with a total of more than 2.24 billion US dollars in revenue, accounting for the global TOP100 mobile game publisher revenue Of 40.2%. The top three are QQ Music, NetEase, and Mihayou.
4. Strategy Analytics: Although the COVID-19 epidemic has caused severe challenges in the market, global smart speaker sales in 2020 exceeded 150 million, setting a record. New models launched by Apple, Amazon, Google, Ali and Baidu were launched in time for the most important Christmas promotion season, bringing a positive ending to a difficult year. In the fourth quarter of 2020, smart screens accounted for 26% of the total smart speaker market, and the availability of models of different sizes and price points continued to grow, driving the strong growth of smart screens.
5. Boeing: The new crown epidemic will have an impact on the expected delivery volume in the next ten years. Many old aircraft around the world were grounded during the epidemic, and the retirement rate of airlines’ fleets will be doubled on a conventional basis of 2%-3%, reaching a level of about 5%.
6. As the supply gap will be eased and news of loose supply is frequent, the main Shanghai nickel contract plummeted late Thursday, with the lowest drop of 8.95%. Tsingshan Industrial signed a high matte nickel supply agreement with Huayou Cobalt and Zhongwei Co., Ltd., and Russia Nickel resumed nickel supply.
7. According to real-time statistics from Worldometers, as of 07:20 on March 5th, Beijing time, there were over 116.18 million confirmed cases of the new coronavirus globally, reaching 116,184,481, and more than 2.58 million deaths, reaching 2580,166. Among them, the number of confirmed cases of the new coronavirus in the United States exceeded 29.51 million, reaching 29,515,751, and the number of deaths exceeded 533,000, reaching 533,360.