As of March 2nd, Kweichow Moutai pulled back sharply and fell to 2058 yuan. Everyone shivered, and they talked about Kweichow Moutai’s 2,000 yuan might not be guaranteed.
On the other side of the ocean, the United States prints banknotes indefinitely. Bitcoin once pointed to 57,000 U.S. dollars. Since then, it has fallen sharply by about 10,000 U.S. dollars from the high point.
Musk takes the hard core goods, and the goddess ARK is bullish on Bitcoin to 400,000 US dollars.
Charlie Munger stepped on Bitcoin again, believing that Bitcoin is an artificial gold substitute and too unstable to become the world’s medium of exchange.
As the two most dazzling targets in the investment field, who is more worthy of investment in the next 20 years?
Kweichow Moutai: Gradually approaching the margin of safety, the annualized rate of return in the next 20 years is about 10%+
As for how good Maotai is, I won’t repeat it in this article. You can refer to the article: If you invest in stocks and earn less than 30% a year, why not buy Kweichow Moutai?
The Kweichow Moutai performance forecast shows that in 2020, Kweichow Moutai will have a profit of 45.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10%, and revenue will also increase by 10%.
But from 2020 to before the Spring Festival, Moutai’s stock price rose sharply by 134%. Although the certainty of Moutai’s future performance cannot be shaken, the rapid rise in stock prices has greatly overdrawn the future upside space, and the post-holiday callback is a return to normal valuation.
After a sharp correction of over 20%, does Kweichow Moutai already possess investment value?
Source: Essence Securities
In the latest research report of Essence Securities, Kweichow Moutai’s net profit of 54.85 billion in 2021 is expected, and its net profit is expected to be 66.71 billion in 2022. Zhongtai Securities has given Maotai’s net profit of 55.27 billion in 2021 and 645.9 in 2022. Billion in net profit expectations.
Based on Kweichow Moutai’s 55 billion net profit in 2021, the current market value is 2.59 trillion, which is equivalent to 47.1 times the price-earnings ratio.
In 2022, Kweichow Moutai’s net profit is calculated at 65 billion, and the current market value is 2.59 trillion, which is equivalent to 39.8 times the price-earnings ratio.
Is this price-earnings ratio still high?
From the perspective of historical price-earnings ratio (TTM), the price-earnings ratio of 40 times was once the ceiling of Kweichow Moutai’s valuation. After 2020, as the value of Moutai becomes more and more recognized by the market, this valuation ceiling is pierced, and Moutai, which has a price-earnings ratio of 40 times, is gone forever.
Want to buy Kweichow Moutai at a valuation below 40 times price-earnings ratio? The 40 times price-earnings ratio can be regarded as Moutai’s margin of safety.
Buffett once said: “Choose the best company and be a friend of time”, we make a simple calculation of the long-term profit of Kweichow Moutai:
Assuming its profit growth rate of 15% in the next 20 years, the net profit in 2040 will reach 744.7 billion yuan.
Calculated by 25 times the PE, the future market value of Moutai will reach 186169 billion. If calculated on the basis of the current market value of 2.59 trillion, the market value of Moutai will increase by 7.19 times in 20 years.
7.19 times in 20 years, are you satisfied? It sounds good, but in fact the annualized income is “only” 10.37%.
Kweichow Moutai’s family base is too strong, even so, the long-term yield is still much stronger than buying money funds. However, a long-term expected return of just over 10% may not be satisfactory to “greedy” investors.
Bitcoin: It entered everyone’s field of vision in 2013, and its revenue has been slightly better than Moutai since 2014!
Judging from Baidu’s search index and media index, Bitcoin entered everyone’s field of vision at the end of 2013. As for the era when one dollar can buy several Bitcoins, statistics are not taken, and there is obviously a survivor bias.
2013 was the craziest year for Bitcoin. From the opening price of $13.5 at the beginning of the year to the closing price of $754 on the last trading day at the end of the year, an increase of nearly 56 times throughout the year, “a year of wealth” became possible and Bitcoin Enter everyone’s vision.
During the Spring Festival from 2014 to 2020, based on the closing price of US$47,228 on February 13, 2021, Bitcoin achieved an increase of 62.63 times. During the same period, Kweichow Moutai rose 60.97 times, which was almost the same as Bitcoin’s increase.
In the next 20 years, which of Kweichow Moutai or Bitcoin is more worthy of investment?
The above calculation has been simple, in the next 20 years, Kweichow Moutai will rise by about 71.9 times, with an annualized income of about 10.37%.
There are different opinions on the logic of bullish and bearish Bitcoin. I will not make an evaluation here, just make an assumption: if the price of Bitcoin rises to 400,000 US dollars as ARK goddess said in the next 20 years, the current price is calculated at 50,000 US dollars. The currency will rise 8 times, and the annualized rate of return will reach 10.96%, which will be almost the same as that of Kweichow Moutai. If calculated according to 21 million, the total market value of Bitcoin will reach 8.4 trillion US dollars.
The total GDP of the United States in 2019 was 21.4 trillion U.S. dollars. In 2020, affected by the epidemic, the total GDP will decline. Assuming a constant GDP growth rate of 2% from 2020 to 2040, the US GDP will reach 32.4 trillion US dollars in 2040. By then, the market value of Bitcoin will account for 25.9% of US GDP.
When Musk began to call the wind and rain in the currency circle, when the tide of US monetary easing will eventually fade, when Moutai is still hard to find, the people complain. 20 years later, who will point out Maotai and Bitcoin?
Reprint indicated source：Spark Global Limited information